Racing Cox Plate

[iluvparis]

Unfortunately I have heard the public perception is MrQ was mega unlucky in a CC.

Yup - just as unlucky as Avilius in last years Melbourne Cup i here

 

[FallingLiefs]

Harlem 110* Exempt
Homesman 112* Exempt
Cape of Good Hope 112* Exempt
Kluger 106* Invitee
Lys Gracieux
Avilius 116
Danceteria 111
Magic Wand 110
Mystic Journey 116
Te Akau Shark 112
Castelvecchio 102
Kings Will Dream 110
Humidor 112
Gailo Chop 112
Dream Castle 110
Mr Quickie 108
Verry Elleegant 106

 

[FallingLiefs]

Gailo Chop might make it just because he's the obvious leader. Unless Litt grows a brain.

 

[AvantGardener]

VE has to make it. 2xGp1 winner and won Gp2 2000m last start.
Think DC and MrQ have to go. MrQ had excuses but the cold hard result can't have him making it.

TAS never won a Gp1 or been over 1601m+
Castlevecchio done nothing

Others been disgraced by BHB and Gatting this prep can GAGF too.

 

[iluvparis]

TAS (kiwi) and Castle (3yo) should absolutely be on the chopping block but there is likely little chance the committee throws them out (TAS will be a lock to them)

dey need da stories!!!!

 

[FallingLiefs]

Te Akau Shark is rated 112 and has the best local last start of any of these. He's not missing out.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Harlem 110* Exempt
Lys Gracieux
Avilius 116
Homesman 112* Exempt
Danceteria 111
Kluger 106* Invitee
Magic Wand 110
Cape of Good Hope 112* Exempt
Mystic Journey 116
Te Akau Shark 112
Castelvecchio 102
Kings Will Dream 110
Humidor 112
Gailo Chop 112
Dream Castle 110
Mr Quickie 108
Verry Elleegant 106

Updated with OHR's

 

[iluvparis]

Updated with OHR's

Looks like you have included the Oz Bloodstock rating rather than the OHR for Danceteria

 

[FallingLiefs]

Looks like you have included the Oz Bloodstock rating rather than the OHR for Danceteria

Yeah saw that and already fixed.

 

[HeathySure]

Te Akau Shark is rated 112 and has the best local last start of any of these. He's not missing out.

Discretion of the committee... they will run him cos of his name. Does not deserve a start in front of VE dual group 1 winner last season, if i was the owner of VE and it didnt get a run in front of half these dodos i would pack up and go run in North Korea.
MrQ first one out, doesnt deserve to run. Humidor 2nd out... it going woeful without the EPO.
Given how much they love to kiss the arse of overseas horses DC will get a run...

 

[TBellicious]

What price will LS start?

 

[iluvparis]

What price will LS start?

I'll say $3.70

 

[iluvparis]

Bart has just been nommed so another has to come out now - one of Humi or Gailo I'd say

 

[FallingLiefs]

KWD the weakest IMO. Would take massive balls to cut a last start G1 winner but it was at SW+P.

 

[iluvparis]

KWD the weakest IMO. Would take massive balls to cut a last start G1 winner but it was at SW+P.

Yeah thats the reason he is in for me - can't see them cutting any G1 winners in the Vic Spring, especially over horses that haven't done anything in that same spring. Will be interesting to see what they do.

 

[Slipps]

BHB into the cox plate connections paying the 200k entry fee.

 

[iluvparis]

BHB into the cox plate connections paying the 200k entry fee.

 

[iluvparis]

KWD, Castle and VE all down for breakfast with the stars tomorrow (as is TAS)

Last gasp to impress the committee?

 

[onebillsdrive]

Yeah if your not already on you just hope it doesn't turn up. Given the volume of people tipping it I'd say the bookies have it already at rock bottom in their opinion.

The massive positive for the above is MV is very similar to the tracks seen in Japan it should be easier for them to adjust than say Irish horses.

Just checked out the Japanese courses, they are nothing like MV in fact the only left handed course she won at is Tokyo which has a nearly 600m straight

 

[rideclutch]

Bart in, Chop out + the 3 that Leafy, Paris and I all agree on.

Humidor gets in for his Cox Plate record IMO even though it's largely irrelevant to his chances this year.

Delicious race minus Harlem who will no doubt be going backwards at the 600m and ruin someone's race.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Just checked out the Japanese courses, they are nothing like MV in fact the only left handed course she won at is Tokyo which has a nearly 600m straight

Surface undulations and rate of turn, not dimensions.

They use a very similar surface to the Strathayr used in HKJC, MVRC, Singapore TC

 

[FallingLiefs]

The last one to cut will be Castel/KWD/Gailo. I hope they cut them in that order too. Gailo will offer more to the race as a leader than the previous two.


Who leads if Gailo is out??? Can't imagine anyone keen unless LG just says i'm better than you all as she has most to gain with genuine leader.

 

[mcnulty]

I'll say $3.70

Gee I hope so. Looking at those in the market behind her I can't see MJ winning (much as I'd love too), and give Avilius none unless it's significantly rain affected. Liked Homesman early Spring but disappointed last start, and the stable is legless ATM. Finding it hard to make a case for many here. LC should just be too good.

 

[iluvparis]

Who leads if Gailo is out??? Can't imagine anyone keen unless LG just says i'm better than you all as she has most to gain with genuine leader.

Harlem?
Homesman?

As for the cut I still think there is zero chance they boot KWD given he won one of the bonus races.

Maybe they will cut Castle. They only let Shamus the cat in as an emergency and don’t think there was any other 3yos that year?

 

[FallingLiefs]

Harlem?
Homesman?

As for the cut I still think there is zero chance they boot KWD given he won one of the bonus races.

Maybe they will cut Castle. They only let Shamus the cat in as an emergency and don’t think there was any other 3yos that year?

Long John made it ballot free through Guineas. Shamus Award was a maiden at the time though.