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Cox Plate

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I'm convinced that if Nom Du Jeu settles early he can win this. Nash couldn't control him in either of his last two runs and I reckon Rodd will be better suited. He went well at Breakfast With The Best and looks like he is peaking now, while some of the others have been up for a bit. The Bakers are pretty sneaky and he has ability, so I won't be surprised if he pulls out a big effort.
 
I'm glad so many people here are spruiking the chances of horses that clearly have no chance of winning the race.

It means the rest of us will get better odds on the only two realistic chances in the race, Whobe and HOD.

I can't see anything else in the field beating those two, barring a mishap of Naturalism proportions.
 
Hearing Sir Slicks trainer speaking this morning sounds to me that they might go really quick in front which will suit WBGY.
He said he wants the ground good which he will get and if Sir Slick gets the rail (which I think is a near certainty) it will be a very interesting race.
What I make of that is he's going to go quick
 
mi_hrvati said:
yeh wouldnt do, especially considering i did indeed back all silent at his last start, best sprinter/miler in the country imo. I was thinking moreso about whether it can run the distance? never been tried. not to sure it will suit?
Click to expand...
It is definitely the query has shown to run a very strong mile, hopefully the clip is good and we sit midfield off the fence with cover and storm home over the top. Sounds easy.
 

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Kirby said:
I'm glad so many people here are spruiking the chances of horses that clearly have no chance of winning the race.

It means the rest of us will get better odds on the only two realistic chances in the race, Whobe and HOD.

I can't see anything else in the field beating those two, barring a mishap of Naturalism proportions.
Click to expand...
Most people said that about Fields of Omagh, twice.
 
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Kirby said:
I'm glad so many people here are spruiking the chances of horses that clearly have no chance of winning the race.

It means the rest of us will get better odds on the only two realistic chances in the race, Whobe and HOD.

I can't see anything else in the field beating those two, barring a mishap of Naturalism proportions.
Click to expand...
As above.
 
pacman said:
Most people said that about Fields of Omagh, twice.
Click to expand...
FOO was a proven WFA performer and would have won a Caulfield Cup were it not for an absolute Champion in Northerly.

Some of the ones being spruiked here do not have those kind of formlines!
 
You'll find that those spruiking anything over double figures are chasing some sort of value. Very hard to tip against WBGY with his record at the track etc.

Like First Command last weekend, use WBGY to boost your other tips in doubles. Last weekend, I took 4 horses in doubles with First Command (Viewed, Baughurst, Royal Discretion & Jaalipy). Ended up nicely in front, as long as the anchor holds up.

I don't see why it won't this weekend!!
 
Kirby said:
It means the rest of us will get better odds on the only two realistic chances in the race, Whobe and HOD.

I can't see anything else in the field beating those two, barring a mishap of Naturalism proportions.
Click to expand...

Although I agree to an extent I'll also be taking Zipping & El Segundo in my multiples. Similarly to Whobe and HOD this is their sole spring aim, they are proven at the track (& in this race), have WFA form and both worked home well last start (Zipping=Viewed's run in the Turnbull). As 8yo's, whether they are past it is the query.

A 4yo Rock Kingdom could be an emerging star but I'm happy to pot the other Sydney horses - recent history shows that the Sydney Epsom/George Main formline rarely is a guide to even the placegetters in the Cox. The exceptions being Filante, Lonhro & Defier - all were proven WFA guns.

Bart's 3yo is very talented, but still does too many things wrong which could be a problem in the short straight. Gai's has drawn poorly and I doubt is good enough.

I'm not convinced on Speed Gifted as yet - beat a sh!t field in the bog last start and is unproven at WFA. Melbourne Cup is his GF.
 
LordMayorJohnSo said:
Hearing Sir Slicks trainer speaking this morning sounds to me that they might go really quick in front which will suit WBGY.
He said he wants the ground good which he will get and if Sir Slick gets the rail (which I think is a near certainty) it will be a very interesting race.
What I make of that is he's going to go quick
Click to expand...
If they go super fast it doesnt mean all others have to follow. The waterhouse pair might just let him go and sit 5-6 lengths away? who knows. Anyway if its a strong tempo id suggest black piranha, if it can run the distance, has a quicker finish then whobe anyway....just depends how far away they are from each other
 
LordMayorJohnSo said:
Hearing Sir Slicks trainer speaking this morning sounds to me that they might go really quick in front which will suit WBGY.
Click to expand...

This is a misperception.

If they go real hard over the 2040 then I doubt that WBGY will have enough gas in the tank, he's not a stayer.

After re doing the form etc over the past couple of days I've come to the conclusion that Speed Gifted is an e/w special.
 

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NJ1983 said:
This is a misperception.

If they go real hard over the 2040 then I doubt that WBGY will have enough gas in the tank, he's not a stayer.

After re doing the form etc over the past couple of days I've come to the conclusion that Speed Gifted is an e/w special.
Click to expand...
If Whobe won't have enough gass in the tank in a true staying test then BP certainly won't.

If you don't think Whobe can stay under those conditions my blowout pick would be Scenic Shot - think he is underrated and a hard 2040 certainly won't be a problem.
 
As I have said previously in the thread, best bet of the day is to leave this race alone, if anything have a little e/w on Road to Rock, massive overs and as good of a chance as any behind Whobe & HOD's in my opinion!
 
NJ1983 said:
This is a misperception.

If they go real hard over the 2040 then I doubt that WBGY will have enough gas in the tank, he's not a stayer.

After re doing the form etc over the past couple of days I've come to the conclusion that Speed Gifted is an e/w special.
Click to expand...

I agree with this to an extent, it depends solely on how the Plate is run.

Usually in the Cox Plate, the pressure is on from the 800m metre mark, making it more like a staying test then a typical 2000m race.

Watching the Cox Plate that Makybe Diva won, showed that rounding the turn, they were 8 wide and Makybe was the only horse being restrained, as they had already gone 3-400m flat out, and most were buggered by the straight.

WhoBe deserves to be the favourite, but the question mark over him is if the race turns into a staying type race, with the pressure on a long way out.

I'd love to get some inside info on how well El Segundo is going, as he could do Fields of Omagh in this race and just out "tough" them in a classicly run Cox Plate.

I'll load up on WhoBe, I don't think HOD can beat him on merits in the Plate at the Valley, so I'll take El Segundo as backup.

The 3 year olds, as always, are the huge question mark though, no one knows how good they are.
 

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mattys123 said:
Usually in the Cox Plate, the pressure is on from the 800m metre mark, making it more like a staying test then a typical 2000m race.
Click to expand...

I reckon this is a bit of a myth - they have absolutely walked in the last two. Mal pinched it last year and ES had the best sprint finish of another slow pace (Wonderful World 2nd) in 2007.
 

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