Cox Plate

[TheBlackPrince]

I'm a bit disappointed that Monaco Consul is not running in Saturdays AAMI vase.

Moroney will be hoping to buggery that the heavens open to give this bloke a chance on wet ground during Cup week.

 

[Ron]

Heart of Dreams the big mover

How do they work out those move %?

If something is $10 and then it drops to $12 is has only dropped 20%, not 22%. Where did they get 22% from?

 

[LordMayorJohnSo]

??? GST

 

[dr nick]

How do they work out those move %?

If something is $10 and then it drops to $12 is has only dropped 20%, not 22%. Where did they get 22% from?

I assume they take the $1 out of it, so it's really like going from $9 to $11.

So something that comes in from $1.10 to $1.05 would come in by 50%. (In practical terms, its chances of winning would have doubled)

 

[mattys123]

I reckon this is a bit of a myth - they have absolutely walked in the last two. Mal pinched it last year and ES had the best sprint finish of another slow pace (Wonderful World 2nd) in 2007.

It isn't a myth, but you are right about the last 2 Cox Plates being sit sprint races with pressure only on coming to the home turn.

But with a few stayers in this years race, and especially with Freedman's Speed Gifted, I can see pressure from a long way out again this year, making it another classicly run race.

Either way, the race has actually improved in quality since I initially saw the field, although HOD and WhoBe still stand out, if either of these struggle on the day, we could have a 5-6 way finish amongst the others.

 

[pacman]

Anyone here have an opinion on Hissing Sid whether it be positive or negative.
Is he really a $3.50 chance?
The Cathay Pacific doesn't look strong.

 

[win1soon]

Anyone here have an opinion on Hissing Sid whether it be positive or negative.
Is he really a $3.50 chance?
The Cathay Pacific doesn't look strong.

ISTA KAREEM is a special, loves the valley and the distance

 

[win1soon]

Jolie Brise looks the best beat on the card, now that faint perfume isnt running.

 

[uptheblues]

How much talent is there in race 6?!?!?!? far out be tough picking a winner from that crowd. Think i'll have my money on lucky secret though

 

[Main Man]

Anyone here have an opinion on Hissing Sid whether it be positive or negative.
Is he really a $3.50 chance?
The Cathay Pacific doesn't look strong.

Having a brief look at it, I like Hissing Sid and Lodge the Deeds, might be a bit short at $3:50 though.. Last start 4.5 lenghts from Alcopop, thats pretty strong form in this field as most of them have been finishing 10+ lenghts from Alcopop.. I will probably back it but would want odds around the $4:50 mark..

 

[krusher]

This is a misperception.

If they go real hard over the 2040 then I doubt that WBGY will have enough gas in the tank, he's not a stayer.

After re doing the form etc over the past couple of days I've come to the conclusion that Speed Gifted is an e/w special.

Whobe ran a time last year that would have beaten the entire cox plate field and he wasnt getting the usual 3yo weight pull - he is now another year older and stronger and only goes up a small amount vs his Vase weight

he has won 4 from 4 at the valley and is an absolute moral


please continue spruiking HOD et al


i might get $3.5 to load into yet

 

[Ron]

Whobe ran a time last year that would have beaten the entire cox plate field and he wasnt getting the usual 3yo weight pull - he is now another year older and stronger and only goes up a small amount vs his Vase weight

he has won 4 from 4 at the valley and is an absolute moral


please continue spruiking HOD et al


i might get $3.5 to load into yet

The vase was a different run race than the Cox last year.

Look at the last 600 times, WBGY wouldn't have gotten close to Maldivian in that race. Same as this year, if the race plays out like it did last year WBGY will have a hard time coming from the back.

 

[Syd Kennets]

i might get $3.5 to load into yet

If you really wanted to back him, you'd have got better than $3.5 earlier than this.

 

[krusher]

The vase was a different run race than the Cox last year.

Look at the last 600 times, WBGY wouldn't have gotten close to Maldivian in that race. Same as this year, if the race plays out like it did last year WBGY will have a hard time coming from the back.

but regardless of the last 600m whobe time beat big mal so its a case of picking out which sectional makes a better story

olly can flick the switch earlier if need be - he wont get caught napping and i have seen Whobe win at the valley off early runs
get on

 

[mattys123]

If you really wanted to back him, you'd have got better than $3.5 earlier than this.

Agree with this, I have WhoBe going into 5 horses in the Melbourne Cup, and I got 7.00 for the double before WhoBe's first run back.

And all 5 horses are still entered in the cup, now all I need is WhoBe to win this week.

 

[Main Man]

ISTA KAREEM is a special, loves the valley and the distance

Yes but has to make up 4 lengths on Hissing Sid whilst carrying 2 extra kilos from when they last met in the Naturalism 2 starts back.. Not sure you could call it a special!

 

[win1soon]

Yes but has to make up 4 lengths on Hissing Sid whilst carrying 2 extra kilos from when they last met in the Naturalism 2 starts back.. Not sure you could call it a special!

That was over 2000.. were he had 57 kg and hissing sid had 55kg

 

[Main Man]

That was over 2000.. were he had 57 kg and hissing sid had 55kg

Yeah sorry my mistake with the weights, don't get me wrong I think Itsa Kareem is one of the main chances but far from a special! Watch Hissing Sid again in the Herbert Power (2400), was really knocked about at the top of the straight and took a while to get into the clear, race was well and truly over by than but hit the line strong, suggesting to me it will run out a strong 2500m.. As I said though I think $3.50 might be a bit too short for my liking..

 

[Lurkalot]

but regardless of the last 600m whobe time beat big mal so its a case of picking out which sectional makes a better story

You're being naive if you think overall race times are a compelling factor in assessing two races over the same distance (particularly 1600m+).

IN last years Plate, Rod got away with murder employing a stack 'em & sprint home style which left the backmarkers with no hope. Tactics are all crucial (and obviously affect the overall time ran).

With a front-running outsider this year you'd expect a truly run race, which brings up the usual question marks over WBGY middle distance staying capabilities. These are BS imo.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Anyone here have an opinion on Hissing Sid whether it be positive or negative.
Is he really a $3.50 chance?
The Cathay Pacific doesn't look strong.

One of the best of the day.

Was severely hampered at the 300m last start. Alcopop tracked him the entire race until the turn & but then went out wide. Sid was cluttered up on the inside & probably should have run 2nd. Main concern is that he has continued to find trouble this prep, but from 10 he should keep out of trouble in this. You are right this is not strong & $4 would be a luxury IMO.

 

[Axl the great]

Looking at this years race a number of factors will come in to play, pace and where the good horses settle, Sir Slick will lead and IMO will go out by a big margain, Heart of Dreams should get in around 4th or 5th with El Segundo just behind him and Vision and Power, Speed Gifted and WBGY worse than midfeild.
IMO Heart of Dreams is a moral with a good run, he is one seriously good horse and will race up to them on the turn and kick away, WBGY may be too far back and the short straight will not suit Speed Gifted one bit look at his wins and its obvious he need time and space, although he is a massive Cup chance i cant have him here.
The Sydney Raiders V&P and Black Pirahna should be thereabouts but V&P is a Sydney horse and Black Pirahna is the better bet of the two.
Old El Segundo is not without a chance, if he gets the breaks he can easily win this dont care if hes 8 or come off injury (Remember F.O.O)?
And some may laugh but give Sir Slick and easy lead at your peril, Form in Australia not great but this horse is no mug and should they ignore him totally and let him stroll along then he is also capable of nearly pinching it.

 

[krusher]

You're being naive if you think overall race times are a compelling factor in assessing two races over the same distance (particularly 1600m+).

IN last years Plate, Rod got away with murder employing a stack 'em & sprint home style which left the backmarkers with no hope. Tactics are all crucial (and obviously affect the overall time ran).

With a front-running outsider this year you'd expect a truly run race, which brings up the usual question marks over WBGY middle distance staying capabilities. These are BS imo.

this is starting to get ridiculous

whobe is a back marker and the critics are suggesting pace on will not suit neither will a slow pace as he wont be able to catch them

lets just see how it pans out

 

[Coach Bombay]

Far from a massive punter/expert but this is what im thinking right now:

First race. Jills Angel

Second Race. One of Sublimity / Jolie Brise / Ocean Dream. Cant decide which one yet.

Fourth Race. Carrara.

Fifth Race. Lucky Secret.

Sixth Race. Hissing Sid.

 

[Main Man]

Avenue in race 3 looks my special at this point!

 

[TheBlackPrince]

Like Miss Darcey in the Cathay Pacific Cup.
A great card, looking forward to formtalk tomorrow night and everyone' tips!!