Cox Plate

[CranktheAnchors]

yes your right comments like yours will turn this thread to crap.
I'm all for a debate I was more so having a go at the posters saying "you have no idea" " your a moron" when some one doesn't agree with what they think..

Anywho carry on...

I see what your saying rhino. Carry on...

 

[CranktheAnchors]

What are the chance Nick Hall will cop a whipping fine saturday.

Last year in the Cox Zipping was knackered at the 300 and Nick Hall just kept whacking away to fight back for 3rd.

This year in the Turnball again Nick Hall whacks away gets Zipping up for a short head win but cops a whipping fine. (Not that it would of worried him too much)

Zipping is a horse that needs to be hard ridden to produce its best and that often requires more whipping than is alowd. Saturday when SYT pours the pressure on at the 600 Nick Hall will be whipping Zipping like theres no tomorrow and probably get the best out of it. Good chance to run top 3.
He will probably get fined but if it jags a place he has done his job. There are too many irregularities in the ruling i believe. Thats not to mean i have a solution either

 

[ECHUCABOY]

I see what you are trying to say but I think that is an interesting claim given he has already blown away a similar field to this last year...as a 3yo at just his 5th start!

Obviously More Joyous and Shoot Out are quality additions this year but Shoot Out was beaten by Zipping last start who was in the field last year.

So apart from beating More Joyous I can't see how a dominant win this year can be viewed as vastly superior to the performance he put up last year.

Yeah I'd imagine there will be more pressure on this year....ah well wait and see. Was just talking to a mate who said Unitab have got a market up for how much SYT will win by....haha interesting stuff!

 

[iluvparis]

I think he ran the quickest time since Might & Power last year as well so they will be doing well to get a more high pressure race than that!

 

[master bate]

Tactics will be interesting. I don't want the other jockeys to not give SYT a chance (if they are even good enough to do that) but I want to see some moves. Particular for the horses at big odds, you may as well try something, otherwise its pretty obvious you are just in it to pick up the top 8 prizemoney.

 

[Viktor]

Tactics will be interesting. I don't want the other jockeys to not give SYT a chance (if they are even good enough to do that) but I want to see some moves. Particular for the horses at big odds, you may as well try something, otherwise its pretty obvious you are just in it to pick up the top 8 prizemoney.

Just because a horse has big odds doesn't mean it has a very small chance of winning, it simply means that it hasn't been backed very much.

 

[mattys123]

With the rain likely to come on Saturday, I am on Wall Street each way all day.

He is the best "actual NZ horse" to come out of NZ since Sunline (no where near as good, but still good) and blew horses like Ginga Dude and The Hombre away in NZ.

You have to look for some value in this race, even the first 4 might not pay much if SYT salutes, as most will take SYT one out for first, and load up on the placings.

 

[WeninRome]

With the rain likely to come on Saturday, I am on Wall Street each way all day.

He is the best "actual NZ horse" to come out of NZ since Sunline (no where near as good, but still good) and blew horses like Ginga Dude and The Hombre away in NZ.

You have to look for some value in this race, even the first 4 might not pay much if SYT salutes, as most will take SYT one out for first, and load up on the placings.

I so hope Wall Street stays around 20-1 ... I have been watching this horse for the last two months..

It's 2040m time is faster than every Cox Plate winner since 1994.

Sport has a funny way of being sentimental though...could Shootout do it?

 

[davis_756]

Totally agree Crank...It's hard to get your point across when it's not an actual conversation...

I completley agree with Lockyer in that respect as well.

All American was a muck around comment...just being stupid, hence the

Davis completley understand what your saying, but I really do think this crop of horses isnt as good, as say when Fields Of Omagh, Makybe, El Segundo, Big Mal etc going around....

This race gets to that standard and if SYT blows them away...I'll be the first to say how good he is, I'm not potting him exactly. I just think he hasn't quite been tested. But in a high pressure race like this and a field like this, this is where champions are made.

Anyway SYT is a gun, beautiful bloody horse. I love watchng it in action and I suppose when you try and compare horses to years gone by or class levels gone by it is never going to work.

I personally think after 9 starts he isnt a Champ just yet and that the media overact a little..If it goes on to win the Melbourne Cup it will be an unbelievable effort.

And probably the main reason my argument is weighted this way is because I am the ultimate optimist and I love the underdog...

You are correct the Northerly, Sunline, Fields of Omagh Combo was a higher quality field but regardless it was still a fast time as a 3 yr old last year.

He is far from a champ as of yet but as to you saying this is a race where champions are made I disagree, the field last year was almost identical in strength to this one and he beat them easily.

2010 is just about him showing he can back it up, next year will be when he lines up for legend status.

What are the chance Nick Hall will cop a whipping fine saturday.

Last year in the Cox Zipping was knackered at the 300 and Nick Hall just kept whacking away to fight back for 3rd.

This year in the Turnball again Nick Hall whacks away gets Zipping up for a short head win but cops a whipping fine. (Not that it would of worried him too much)

Zipping is a horse that needs to be hard ridden to produce its best and that often requires more whipping than is alowd. Saturday when SYT pours the pressure on at the 600 Nick Hall will be whipping Zipping like theres no tomorrow and probably get the best out of it. Good chance to run top 3.
He will probably get fined but if it jags a place he has done his job. There are too many irregularities in the ruling i believe. Thats not to mean i have a solution either

The Whipping rules were brought in to get the green idiots off the racing industry's back, they don't actually care if a horse gets over whipped. The whips now days are so tame its almost a waste of time having them and the rules about X whips allowed are a complete and utter joke.

Its like the Jumps Racing that was complained about because of deaths, they did what they had to so the Greenies would shut up and leave them alone. The irony is the people complaining about the deaths fail to realise 90% of jumps horses would by sent to the knackery if it wasn't for jumps races rather then a couple dying.

 

[sblack]

I'm on Wall Street. Took the $21 Centrebet was offering.

That NZ formline is looking top shelf.

 

[iluvparis]

With the rain likely to come on Saturday, I am on Wall Street each way all day.

You have to look for some value in this race, even the first 4 might not pay much if SYT salutes, as most will take SYT one out for first, and load up on the placings.

I can't see Eachway betting being 'value' in this race at all. Either you think SYT is vulnerbale - in which case you load up on a few other horses with WIN bets.

Or you are just looking for a longer price horse outside him in which case you should just put your entire stake on that horse to place.

 

[ECHUCABOY]

I'm on Wall Street. Took the $21 Centrebet was offering.

That NZ formline is looking top shelf.

Forgot if I posted, but was able to snap up $30 and $28 on betfair and $4.5 place...Be a few happy punters on here if he gets up

 

[its just sporn mum]

had a dream about the cox plate last night.
Wall street put lengths on em with shoot out second and so you think third.

Based on this and my previous dream predictions zipping is probably gonna win with my dream trifecta finishing at the rear.

 

[mattys123]

Centrebet have a free bet deal on the Cox Plate.

Basically, back whatever you want in the plate, you get a free bet up to $25 to spend on any NBL market in the 2010/11 season, win or lose on the CP.

I put 25 on SYT.

Codeword is COXNBL enter it under My Freebets in the My account section.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Yeah I dont know...Im astounded that Luen Fat Forever is 100-1. Im thinking at this stage Whobe, Wall St each way, Fatty forever for a place. And throw in SYT in the first 4. Not that keen on anything else. I know More Joyous has won 8 in a row which is incredible but i just dont think she will run a place. I could be completely off the mark and her and SYT are the obvious bankers in the f4 but im just not that keen.

Good thinking matty, you backing someone for the title or something with a quick turnaround?. NBL is about the only thing i wont bet on..well i havent YET anyway

 

[Colin D'Cops]

If the weather keeps going this perfect, sunny; So You Think will be near impossible to beat.

Still hoping for rain though, hopefully make it a bit more even and exciting.

 

[mattys123]

Good thinking matty, you backing someone for the title or something with a quick turnaround?. NBL is about the only thing i wont bet on..well i havent YET anyway

I'd say I'd just use the Freebet as early as Sunday if it comes through, should start doing some research on the NBL now, all I know about is how bad the Tigers are looking.

 

[The GOAT]

Cheers for that find mattys123

 

[jonesy86]

Just realised the Cox Plate is being run at 5:35pm on Saturday... first time it's being run in the twilight?

How long til it's at night?

I'm tipping 2012

 

[KardiniaPark]

WTF it's 7pm and it's still light outside. 5.30 is the middle of the day in daylight saving!

 

[sniper77]

For those living out in Melbourne' Eastern Suburbs and were planning to catch a train to the races, buses will be operating between Camberwell and Burnley and it will take 40mins to do so.

Best to make alternative travel plans should you be thinking of Metro!

Carry on punters!

 

[Purrfect Pussies]

WTF it's 7pm and it's still light outside. 5.30 is the middle of the day in daylight saving!

It's only so they can maximise the TV audience to run into the news at 6pm. Night Cox Plate on the cards for next year though.

 

[KardiniaPark]

It's only so they can maximise the TV audience to run into the news at 6pm. Night Cox Plate on the cards for next year though.

Suits me I'm busy this time of year. I'll miss the first three races again this week. I still have sportingbet on and have a punt but I can't sit at work with a beer...fortunately nothing takes my fancy till race 4 but need some time to wind down so 5.30 works great for me

 

[_SYT_]

My favourite race of the year, so forgive my going overboard! haha

On a side, but not all together unrelated, note - I can't wait for the inevitable night time Cox Plate.

At this stage I'm assuming that the track will cop the expected bit of rain and play on the better side of Dead.


Zipping 59kg (6) Nick Hall, Robert Hickmott
The grandpa of the field who gave a bunch of top gallopers a beating in the Turnbull when he eyes them off and then fought them off. He's a dual placegetter in this race so we know he can tough it out with the best of them and I don't think (other than the connections of the others in this race) many would begrudge him winning this year.
He's won the Australian Cup and Turnbull Stakes this year. He races well here, he likes this distance, he's no doubt been actually set for this this year and he flies third up.
On his run last year, the conditions of his opponents this year (weight) and the fact he looks to be in the best form of his career - and other than the fact he's tried 3 times and never managed to win this race - he's gotta be the one SYT has to be most worried about cos when it comes down to it, when the pressure pours on, when the riders go for home, when the spirit of weaker animals start to break, assuming Zipping is on his game I think he's the only one who can knock SYT off.

Whobegotyou 59kg (10) Michael Rodd, Mark Kavanagh
The one time glamour boy now enigma, dealt a terrible draw realistically leaving them with the option of drifting back and hoping to run home hard - but it didn't work last year, so how can it this year, especially after his disppointing finish in the Yalumba?!
Fact is he was only about a length off placing last year as a 4yo, he's the impressive 2010 Dato/Feehan winner and loves the Valley. I can't see how the jockeys can let this race be run at a trot, so he should get his chance to swoop into it. I don't think he can sustain his sprint long enough to come from a few lengths behind So You Think and give him a fright, but you're nuts if you don't include him as one of the main chances running for a place.

Luen Yat forever 59kg (2) Dwayne Dunn, Pou Choi
I thought his run was as good as the winner in the Toorak, but yet again he's being given no respect at the odds. That's the only run I've seen of him and it gave the impression the 2040m at this track from the good draw should be within his grasp but I/we just don't know enough.
As is the case with most of these, he'll be behind So You Think at the 800m and I can't see him being able to get past the champ. Is the form out of the Toorak itself enough to entertain him as a rough hope for multiples? I'm inclined to say no (I think it was a weak version + blanket finish) and I don't think he'll finish in front of More Joyous - but he's better than a 100/1 shot, especially as he won't have to spend a drop of petrol from the barrier.

Wall Street 59kg (4) Michael Coleman, Jeff Lynds
NZ WFA champ and his last start win already looks the goods in Australia with the win of Ginga Dude, although this is a huge step up in grade. Especially being asked to beat SYT, Shoot Out, Zipping and More Joyous is leagues different to leading and defeating Purple a-merry-dance.
I think it's better to forgive and forget his run in the Doncaster. He's much better this direction, he's more mature, in better form and the smaller field suits better.
From the perfect barrier I think we'll see him sliding forward and if it pans out for him we'll see him end up one out one back and in a perfect position.
He'll be better for his first attempt over this trip last time and they've had this race in mind for him for a year.
Honestly, I think hes a rung below the best in this race, but he's a genuine place chance and I've been surprised before, so who knows, coming from a completely different formline he could be the one best placed for an upset.

So You Think 57.5kg (5) Steven Arnold, Bart Cummings
The reigning champ, dominant performer of the current season, looks twice the horse he was last year but for him to win again under the conditions he carries this year he'll need to be.
I think he just wins (as does pretty much everyone else) but hey, I'm also biased (see BF name change from 'Nuke' to '_SYT_' ) lol.
Last time in the Yalumba was the best I've ever seen him and it was his most impressive performance to date and assuming he's even better now 4th up and aimed at this race by the Master, it's scary the level he could potentially deliver us with.
If he finds the lead by the first turn and is allowed to dictate, this will be like a barrier trial for him. If he's allowed to do that, the rest of the jockeys in the field should be shot.
What if something goes to a big lead and serves it up to SYT? No worries, he can roll along, settle tucked in behind them at his own pace and then slide up a couple of gears to (quickly) grind the leader and the rest of his opposition into oblivion.
Is he unbeatable? No. He's proven that he doesn't have to lead and last time was the best we've seen him settle but all it could take is him not having his mind on racing, deciding to race like a big baby and not settle, hell, the race could all go Naturalism on him. That said, assuming he behaves himself (Arnold is the best man in the country for that job imo + SYT has the Bart magic) and no major incident, I can't see them beating him - but I can't believe people are backing him at $1.50. I'll be just as happy to watch a champion, potential legend, and arguably the best horse I've seen go around and win.

Shoot Out 57.5kg (9) Corey Brown, John Wallace
He's a genuine G1 and WFA horse, he's got the runs on the board, he's in good form, he's had a look at the Valley when should/could have finished closer, there's a sense of being timed to perfection with him, he's bloody tough and will enjoy a streetfight.
Especially considering the tragic circumstances from during the week, if he's looming up there'll be plenty cheering him on (even if he's not carrying their money). I definitely like the engagement of Corey Brown (the horse isn't losing anything in riding abaility (gaining)), he should give the horse every chance.
Normally I don't overly like 4yo's in the Cox Plate, but as a Derby winner we at least know that he's strong at the distance, he in top form and shouldn't be left gasping for air as the heat goes up a notch. *sigh* Two of my top 3 are both 4yo's, sucked in? We'll see...

Trusting 57.5kg (1) Jim Cassidy, John P Thompson
His backers must hate him lol, he likes finding one better and especially in a race of this calibre I can't come at him. He's out of a very handy Zabeel mare who got better over ground and he races like he's looking for it but step up to the 2000m, first time at Moonee Valley, can see him being crossed by a few and being stuck in on the rails in a very awkward position - it makes it hard for him. And I can't see him finishing in front of More Joyous.

Captain Sonador 57.5kg (8) Glen Boss, Roger Milne
A last start G1 mile winner has to be respected and he was impressive doing it... but the step up to WFA, first time this direction, first time at the Valley and failed at his only run at 2000m (although there were excuses) - there's a lot against him. To see the best of him I think he needs to be ridden midfield or worse and that makes him a place chance only for mine. And taking a line through Trusting I can't see the Captain beating home More Joyous. I love him though (Epsom win = goooooood ) and it'd be good to see him do the Epsom-Cox double.

Avienus 57kg (7) Craig Williams, Mark Webb
Originally I was against her taking her place in the field, but I do like her, she's improving, she's competitive and hell, if Raheeb can get a run in the Cox Plate with similar-ish form.... She's unproven in this class, it's yet to be proven she can run a strong 2000m but she was desperately unlucky in the Toorak and she does love the Valley. I hope we'll see a daring ride from Wiliams and she'll stride out to a commanding lead putting some pressure into the race - daring tactics by one (or a few) is the only way we may see an upset - and with the short straight, who knows?! I can't see her having the class/sprint to be figuring any other way.

More Joyous 55.5kg (3) Nash Rawiller, Gai Waterhouse
Huge win in the Toorak but this is definitely her acid test. First time over 2000m, first time in Melbourne, first time against So You Think...
Coming into this she fits a similar profile to Lotteria for mine, with MJ being an even better mare - that alone gives her solid claims.
Will she run a strong 2000m? In normal circumstances I'd say yes, but in a Cox Plate where the pressure is poured on from a long way from home, it'd take a brave punter to confidently say that she'll be able to race on the pace as she likes plus be strong at the end.
Can she be behind So You Think at the 800m at beat him home? I don't think so.
In her favour, there have been many instances of strong milers being able to scoot around Moonee Valley and pinch a placing and she has the services of Nash which is a huge plus imo.
If the race is run at a 'normal' WFA Australian tempo, especially with where she's likely to end up in the running, she's unquestionably a deserved second favourite...but if someone springs a 'surprise' and the race is genuinely run/not for the faint hearted (as I expect), I think she's vulnerable/won't carry mine. A must for trifecta's.


My Top 4

So You Think - Zipping - Shoot Out - Whobegotyou

Rather 'boringly' I think it's going to be a rather obvious trifecta with it likely to be made up of the top 5 horses in the market - well, I'm at least finding it hard to make a case for that not to happen - but that's the great thing about racing! It never happens as I/we expect....

 

[KardiniaPark]

Luen Yat forever 59kg (2) Dwayne Dunn, Pou Choi
I thought his run was as good as the winner in the Toorak, but yet again he's being given no respect at the odds. That's the only run I've seen of him and it gave the impression the 2040m at this track from the good draw should be within his grasp but I/we just don't know enough.
As is the case with most of these, he'll be behind So You Think at the 800m and I can't see him being able to get past the champ. Is the form out of the Toorak itself enough to entertain him as a rough hope for multiples? I'm inclined to say no (I think it was a weak version + blanket finish) and I don't think he'll finish in front of More Joyous - but he's better than a 100/1 shot, especially as he won't have to spend a drop of petrol from the barrier.


I was liking him until i realised that MJ gets 8Kg for beating him a length last start!!!. I still might throw him in the f4 though or a small place bet, might sneak in 5 lengths 3rd in a blanket finish