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Thanks fat boy
Cricket:Australia Vs New Zealand Test Series
- Thread starter kyan
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- #52
Uh-oh... Late wickets to the Aussies... Collapse imminent!!
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- #53
But seriously looking at the odds, the kiwis are about 6.80 to win this. How the hell are they going to win it? There's only two possible results, surely?
They will likely have a first innings lead. Id back them over Australia at this stage
I cant see Aus winning. If we bat well we are going to bat until about lunch tomorrow, or we will collapse and NZ will win
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- #55
Let's say the first innings' will be roughly equal. The Aussie approach would be firstly to ensure NZ can't win, by leaving them not enough time to get however many runs the lead is. A draw means the series cannot be lost, only won or drawn. Therefore that's goal #1. Goal #2 is then to go for a win if you can. NZ managed to take 8 wickets in two innings in Brisbane, and only got 9 wickets in the first innings of this test because the middle order began swinging the bat. How are they going to change that and suddenly engineer a collapse?
A draw is pretty much a certainty, IMO, but the only other possibility is an Aus win, I'd have thought.
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It'll come down to the first session today, depends how much of a lead the kiwis get (if they get one, you'd expect them to get the 50 runs though). After Craig they've not got much, Henry & southee just swing and hope for the best and boult is a bunny. If we roll through them this morning and get a lead of 300ish today - assuming run rate of ~4 an over and try to bowl them out/they try and get it tomorrow. Reckon there's still a chance of a win for both sides. Australia would be happy with a draw though so there's that
I agree the draw is almost a cetainty. I dont think NZ will win either, but what im saying is that Australia will be making sure they cant lose so will bat into the morning tomorrow making the draw a formality. The only way that scenario doesnt play out is if Australia collapse
So Australia bat well = draw, Australia bat poor = NZ win. I cant see them risking enough to go for a win on this deck
So Australia bat well = draw, Australia bat poor = NZ win. I cant see them risking enough to go for a win on this deck
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- #59
You're all forgetting that it'll be day 5 when we need wickets. Though this pitch is friendly right now, there's a crack opening up and it could deteriorate quickly. Bowling them out in two sessions in a deteriorating pitch with Starc at 150+ is not too improbable.
iluvparis
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I'm with Jug - as we will be declaring we'll be making sure we DON'T lose when declaring - which makes an Aussie win pretty unlikely. Conversely NZ only have to trigger a batting collapse from us (unlikely but evidently possible) and then we are in serious trouble.
If I was an in play punter - trading the AUS-NZD spread is the way I'd be playing (lay australia - back NZ)
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- #61
So an Australia collapse is a chance but a nz collapse on day 5 isn't? That's crazy talk.
Australia are very unlikely to shorten in the market though for me. Obviously if NZ came out and lost 4/15 this morning they would but im happy to back in NZ to get to our total.
They could both collapse, but by this time tomorrow the only team i could see shortening in the market is NZ. The most likely scenario is Australia bat through til lunch or a few overs before and set NZ 300+ to chase down - if so the draw will be about $1.20
Or the only other scenario is Australia bat shithouse and NZ are into favouritism
They could both collapse, but by this time tomorrow the only team i could see shortening in the market is NZ. The most likely scenario is Australia bat through til lunch or a few overs before and set NZ 300+ to chase down - if so the draw will be about $1.20
Or the only other scenario is Australia bat shithouse and NZ are into favouritism
iluvparis
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It's more Australia will have more time to be exposed to a collapse given the match state than NZ will (likely batting 2.5 sessions on Day 5 at most).
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Draw is overs IMO, expecting at least one side to have balls(likely NZ)
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Things looking shaky, Khawaja not batting I assume. Hopefully pull it back a bit and try to stabilise rather than set up for a win.
iluvparis
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Has India 2001 written all over it
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Not too upset if we lose, doesn't effect me but would rather we go into Adelaide 1-0
iluvparis
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Would show captaincy of the most moronic order to cost us this game.
Looks like they've put the queue in the rack since the second wicket.
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- #69
There's cracks opening up on this pitch bigger than Paris Hilton's!
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http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/lillee-vs-mcgrath.1117427/page-4
Everyone should read this.
You are too much
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- #71
We'll win from here.
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- #72
Hey you guys must be thrilled - nz are out to 25/1 on Betfair now!!
and Australia are out to $5.30 despite batting this well...
With the draw at about $1.28. Pretty much the result most were expecting. There was no scenario where backing Aus was going to be a good bet by the end of today
With the draw at about $1.28. Pretty much the result most were expecting. There was no scenario where backing Aus was going to be a good bet by the end of today
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- #74
^^^ lol 
