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Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
Where for art thou Urnie. I hope the isolation hasn't stopped your horizontal dance floor shenanigans. I need more stories. This could be the worst thing that has happened since the Virus arrived!
Had a few flings of late.

Saturday night on pof is always half a chance of scoring a pash.

Last Saturday I venture over to a decent looking birds pad for Netflix. Meet her the first time at tge door. Very tidey indeed.

Speak crap for 30 mins then I go in for the make out. Straight away she inserts her tongue into my mouth and we are off.

Could taste her tonsil stone juice on her saliva but I don't care. I'm sinking my tongue in as deep as i can. Nothing like a dirty pash.

We then go to her room for the main event.

A good night's work.

After returning home I find out she has blocked me on pof.

I was a conquest for her, perhaps she tinged that i wanted more.
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
6,756
6,823
AFL Club
Collingwood
Had a few flings of late.

Saturday night on pof is always half a chance of scoring a pash.

Last Saturday I venture over to a decent looking birds pad for Netflix. Meet her the first time at tge door. Very tidey indeed.

Speak crap for 30 mins then I go in for the make out. Straight away she inserts her tongue into my mouth and we are off.

Could taste her tonsil stone juice on her saliva but I don't care. I'm sinking my tongue in as deep as i can. Nothing like a dirty pash.

We then go to her room for the main event.

A good night's work.

After returning home I find out she has blocked me on pof.

I was a conquest for her, perhaps she tinged that i wanted more.
I didnt realise Plenty of fish was still a thing. There was an acquaintance of mine forever to be known as King Of Scums (Tom Thumb the night club) who picked up a bird of POF. We asked him what she was like and he said that she was very nice, 3 kids, 10 years older than him (he would have been early 20s at the time), A kiwi who lived out in the sticks with no licence so he had to take her everywhere and she was unemployed on benefits. That was all good but there was something he didnt like about her.... the fact that she was orange. This was before Trump was a thing!
Seems like plenty of classy women on there!
 

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Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
I didnt realise Plenty of fish was still a thing. There was an acquaintance of mine forever to be known as King Of Scums (Tom Thumb the night club) who picked up a bird of POF. We asked him what she was like and he said that she was very nice, 3 kids, 10 years older than him (he would have been early 20s at the time), A kiwi who lived out in the sticks with no licence so he had to take her everywhere and she was unemployed on benefits. That was all good but there was something he didnt like about her.... the fact that she was orange. This was before Trump was a thing!
Seems like plenty of classy women on there!
You can't blame the birds on there mate.

Lots of guys these days are thirsty as anything. Even the keyhole looks attractive to those soft lads after a few light beers.

Type of soft lads who break out in a sweat when they 'go all in' (50 cent total bet) in the last at Albion Park.

POF is what it is. Sometimes you can score a decent bird. However, most are getting inundated and soon lose interest in you in for anything more than a dirty pash. Some of us are after something a bit more.

The irony is you soon see the same birds ranting in their profile about guys playing games and ghosting, yet they do exactly the same themselves.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
Righto lads. Get around me but not too close. Social distance etc.

Anyway, lets rip right into it. It has been a while.

R Chase Over 2.5 4's in his 1st dig, @ $2.30 with ToppySport

Looks generous to me, and the ol' stats are on our side. Just how I like it.

Technical analysis is in your favour with the stats search. I reckon the fundamental anaylsis is also rock solid.

Obviously, this ball could deck around in England, a lot of batsmen from the West Indies, and everywhere else, including England itself, don't have the technique to weather the moving ball. Instead of nudging singles and rotating the strike is out, smashing boundaries is in.

Pound this line as much as you can lads. It is value to me.

Get on it.

Lets bankrupt the bookies. Make Nick Leeson like like he was playing with Monopoly money.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
Righto lads. Get around me but not too close. Social distance etc.

Anyway, lets rip right into it. It has been a while.

R Chase Over 2.5 4's in his 1st dig, @ $2.30 with ToppySport

Looks generous to me, and the ol' stats are on our side. Just how I like it.

Technical analysis is in your favour with the stats search. I reckon the fundamental anaylsis is also rock solid.

Obviously, this ball could deck around in England, a lot of batsmen from the West Indies, and everywhere else, including England itself, don't have the technique to weather the moving ball. Instead of nudging singles and rotating the strike is out, smashing boundaries is in.

Pound this line as much as you can lads. It is value to me.

Get on it.

Lets bankrupt the bookies. Make Nick Leeson like like he was playing with Monopoly money.
Not often bets land as easily and as juicy as this one.

Nor is it often that they land exactly according to plan as predicted.

Easy money.

Get around me!!!!
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
Once again,

TopSport have R.Chase to $2.30 to hit >2.5 4's in his first innings.

Hit it again. Just like last time. Except, harder!

Also, like the odds of Joe Root to score 50 or more @ $2.30.

Has a great record at Old Trafford, avg 90 odd in his first hit.
 
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ash_1050

Premiership Player
Nov 21, 2009
3,008
5,213
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory and Arsenal
Huge value in the 2nd test at the moment England vs Windies with the draw paying $5.30.

The most recent match finished on Sunday so there's a short turnaround for bowlers.
There's rain forecast on Saturday
Windies won the first test and are batting second, they'd happily take a draw over a loss
England are missing Joffra Archer due to his biosecurity breach

Get in now while the odds are good, they won't be $5.30 this time tomorrow.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
Huge value in the 2nd test at the moment England vs Windies with the draw paying $5.30.

The most recent match finished on Sunday so there's a short turnaround for bowlers.
There's rain forecast on Saturday
Windies won the first test and are batting second, they'd happily take a draw over a loss
England are missing Joffra Archer due to his biosecurity breach

Get in now while the odds are good, they won't be $5.30 this time tomorrow.
Not sure if i can bring myself to back the Windies to draw a test no matter what position they are.

Any thing else rookie?
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
Any recent horizontal dancing or pashing stories to share, Austoraisetheurn?
Not as much horizontal dancing as id like. However, last Saturday night i had a decent old pash with a bird up here in Queensland, and I had a bit to eat as well ;)

Unfortunately, no horizontal dancing but i had a good feed if you know what i mean, and she was more than happy to let me dine. ;)
 

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Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
Just a couple of tips for maximising your returns using Tinder during COVID but the big Urn seems to be across that aspect.
Never really had much success on Tinder.

Best advice i have is once you talk to them online, organise a meet for that day or night.

It helps being 6 foot 2 with nice hair and eyes, but i can only pass on some tips to the lesser among us.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
Good betting is simply about taking wrong odds offered by the bookies.

IT IS THAT SIMPLE.

It is not 'picking winners'.

I cannot emphasis this enough. Too many people look to pick who will win, and then they take the odds that are offered. That is crap betting.

For example, IMO West Indies have about 2% chance of winning this current test match. If you offered me 500 to 1 on the West Indies winning this test match, id gladly place $100 on it even though West Indies only have a 2% chance of winning because the odds you offer me equal an implied chance of 0.2% chance of winning.

That is all betting is. Finding inefficient markets and exploiting them. Bookies get lazy, mug punters skew the books, take advantage of these deadbeats. The type of guy that thinks his good looking but is packing 200 kg worth of gut.

Be that as it may. Betting is also about anticipating opportunities. Let's begin a simple analysis. I emphasis, simple, considering my audience.

Last 10 years away from home, batting 2nd, WI have scored over 300 on 4/19 occasions. Or a 21% strike rate of busting 300. haha....busting? Get it?

So, there is a chance once the Windies bat to get on an innings score Over/Under market right at the start of their innings if the bookies overinflate the over/under line score.

For example, if the line was 320.5 runs @ $1.90 then we'd hit the under.

Also, if the Windies start well than the line may go out to 350? Once again, id hit the unders.

Do not chase your tail. Make a plan and stick to it. Do not get emotional in this game. Otherwise, stick to keno and the dodgy milfs at your local.

 

Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
664
620
AFL Club
West Coast
Huge value in the 2nd test at the moment England vs Windies with the draw paying $5.30.

The most recent match finished on Sunday so there's a short turnaround for bowlers.
There's rain forecast on Saturday
Windies won the first test and are batting second, they'd happily take a draw over a loss
England are missing Joffra Archer due to his biosecurity breach

Get in now while the odds are good, they won't be $5.30 this time tomorrow.
Good darts
 

ash_1050

Premiership Player
Nov 21, 2009
3,008
5,213
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory and Arsenal
Do not chase your tail. Make a plan and stick to it. Do not get emotional in this game. Otherwise, stick to keno and the dodgy milfs at your local.
Appreciate the constructive criticisms and you're spot on with making a plan. I didn't touch the first test at all simply for the fact there were too many unknown variables, and I cringe at anybody who loaded up on England before the 1st test at $1.15 pre match because it's a 'sure thing'. My cricket betting strategy involves thinking several sessions ahead to predict where the game, and subsequently the markets, will be.

Short of losing 7 quick wickets England are always going to bat through most day 2 and put the Windies in at the end to have a crack at them for 10 or so overs, as that's the current conventional thinking in how to best steer a game when batting first to build a big score, leave your opponent in the field for almost two days and then attack with pace late on day two. That takes us to England scoring 500-ish and the Windies at stumps having 15-40 runs on the board and down 0-2 wickets in the process.

Day three the forecast was rain, so you're losing between 1-3 sessions of play for the day which for all intents and purposes gives the Windies no chance of winning the match, unless they stack on 700 runs in a flurry and then put England in after facing 10 overs on day 5 and giving them a total of 230 to chase off 80ish overs.

So if the Windies can't win is there a possibility of England winning? Absolutely there is, and that's obviously the greatest threat to a draw. England need 19 wickets over the next 3 days, which is not only reasonable, but also probable. The Windies battling lineup can best be described as inconsistent and there's no one player you would hang your hat on for them to dig in and see off as many balls as possible while they battle to draw. It is possible that they bunker down and avoid a drubbing, however I would rate this as unlikely at this point.

Furthermore a couple of quick wickets leaves the game in a precarious position, where the Windies potentially crumble and end up all out for 300 or so towards the end of day 4 (as there's limited play on day 3 due to rain). England go in, bat for an hour to put on some quick runs and then declare, offering the Windies a slim but manageable chance of chasing down 250 or so in two sessions of play which inevitably leads to them playing aggressive shots that give up their wicket and allow England to steamroll them with a handful of overs to spare. It's the dominant thinking at the moment from a captaincy perspective and likely how I think the match will play out.

The third possibility is come day 4 the Windies lose some quick wickets, crumble and be all out for 220-250ish. England seize the opportunity to go for the jugular, and enforce the follow on leaving 4-5 sessions of play to snap up 10 wickets, which they do with a handful of overs to spare. This is a chance, and the one that England will be bowling for on day 4, so expect to see aggressive field placements, plenty of short balls and all in all a decent day's cricket to watch as a spectator. If the Windies survive day 4 somewhat unscathed you're into draw territory where the draw becomes not only possible, but probable.

The crux of all this comes down to cashing out at the right time to maximise a profit, and to me that looks like it's about lunch day 4, right about when I go to bed, as I don't want draw bets hovering in the background while I sleep during a pivotal couple of sessions of cricket. If the rain persists tomorrow and we effectively lose a day the draw winds its way into about $2.70, and comes into about $2.40 if the Windies only lose a wicket or two in session 1 on day 4. That's where you cash out, jump on the bike and ride off into the sunset a winner.

The flaws in this strategy are the possibility of England losing 7 quick wickets in sessions 1 and 2 of day two, meaning the Windies get in and get a solid session's batting on day 2 giving them a slim chance of posting a competitive score. There was an outside chance of this happening, England have been known to capitulate (see the Ireland test of 2020) and doing so sees the draw blow out. The buffer to this is the rain, you'd need England to throw away wickets and minimal rain tomorrow to make a draw the least likely of the 3 possible outcomes.

Alternately assuming England make it through day 2 and execute on their plan, which they have, minimal rain tomorrow giving England the better part of an extra day's play, which would make the draw much more improbable, coupled with the Windies ability to retain wickets being an unknown variable. As such it's a rolling plan, continually being tweaked and adjusted to predict the course of the game based on what's occurring in real time, however the plan never waivers to pick the right point to cash out.

Two different strategies, two different betting methodologies, but both of them are a plan and I fully intend to stick to mine.
 
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Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
Appreciate the constructive criticisms and you're spot on with making a plan. I didn't touch the first test at all simply for the fact there were too many unknown variables, and I cringe at anybody who loaded up on England before the 1st test at $1.15 pre match because it's a 'sure thing'. My cricket betting strategy involves thinking several sessions ahead to predict where the game, and subsequently the markets, will be.

Short of losing 7 quick wickets England are always going to bat through most day 2 and put the Windies in at the end to have a crack at them for 10 or so overs, as that's the current conventional thinking in how to best steer a game when batting first to build a big score, leave your opponent in the field for almost two days and then attack with pace late on day two. That takes us to England scoring 500-ish and the Windies at stumps having 15-40 runs on the board and down 0-2 wickets in the process.

Day three the forecast was rain, so you're losing between 1-3 sessions of play for the day which for all intents and purposes gives the Windies no chance of winning the match, unless they stack on 700 runs in a flurry and then put England in after facing 10 overs on day 5 and giving them a total of 230 to chase off 80ish overs.

So if the Windies can't win is there a possibility of England winning? Absolutely there is, and that's obviously the greatest threat to a draw. England need 19 wickets over the next 3 days, which is not only reasonable, but also probable. The Windies battling lineup can best be described as inconsistent and there's no one player you would hang your hat on for them to dig in and see off as many balls as possible while they battle to draw. It is possible that they bunker down and avoid a drubbing, however I would rate this as unlikely at this point.

Furthermore a couple of quick wickets leaves the game in a precarious position, where the Windies potentially crumble and end up all out for 300 or so towards the end of day 4 (as there's limited play on day 3 due to rain). England go in, bat for an hour to put on some quick runs and then declare, offering the Windies a slim but manageable chance of chasing down 250 or so in two sessions of play which inevitably leads to them playing aggressive shots that give up their wicket and allow England to steamroll them with a handful of overs to spare. It's the dominant thinking at the moment from a captaincy perspective and likely how I think the match will play out.

The third possibility is come day 4 the Windies lose some quick wickets, crumble and be all out for 220-250ish. England seize the opportunity to go for the jugular, and enforce the follow on leaving 4-5 sessions of play to snap up 10 wickets, which they do with a handful of overs to spare. This is a chance, and the one that England will be bowling for on day 4, so expect to see aggressive field placements, plenty of short balls and all in all a decent day's cricket to watch as a spectator. If the Windies survive day 4 somewhat unscathed you're into draw territory where the draw becomes not only possible, but probable.

The crux of all this comes down to cashing out at the right time to maximise a profit, and to me that looks like it's about lunch day 4, right about when I go to bed, as I don't want draw bets hovering in the background while I sleep during a pivotal couple of sessions of cricket. If the rain persists tomorrow and we effectively lose a day the draw winds its way into about $2.70, and comes into about $2.40 if the Windies only lose a wicket or two in session 1 on day 4. That's where you cash out, jump on the bike and ride off into the sunset a winner.

The flaws in this strategy are the possibility of England losing 7 quick wickets in sessions 1 and 2 of day two, meaning the Windies get in and get a solid session's batting on day 2 giving them a slim chance of posting a competitive score. There was an outside chance of this happening, England have been known to capitulate (see the Ireland test of 2020) and doing so sees the draw blow out. The buffer to this is the rain, you'd need England to throw away wickets and minimal rain tomorrow to make a draw the least likely of the 3 possible outcomes.

Alternately assuming England make it through day 2 and execute on their plan, which they have, minimal rain tomorrow giving England the better part of an extra day's play, which would make the draw much more improbable, coupled with the Windies ability to retain wickets being an unknown variable. As such it's a rolling plan, continually being tweaked and adjusted to predict the course of the game based on what's occurring in real time, however the plan never waivers to pick the right point to cash out.

Two different strategies, two different betting methodologies, but both of them are a plan and I fully intend to stick to mine.
Betting is simply emotional management in relation to your attachment to money.

I have always said that.

People can have their models, and their systems, but being able to control your emotions during losing streaks - thus minimizing your losses - is absolutely paramount.

Lots of people bet for the dopamine rush - not necessarily winning or losing - like the degenerate at the pub rushing to get his bet on before the red light goes green at the last at Albion Park.

We have all been there.

Good value bets are obvious when they come. At first, you might stare at the screen and second guess yourself. Do not. Place the bet. Let it ride.
 

ash_1050

Premiership Player
Nov 21, 2009
3,008
5,213
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory and Arsenal
Draw into $2.21 and the option is there now to cash out for a bit over double what was wagered. Not bad for 30 hours of 'work', however with the forecast in Manchester suggesting there won't be a ball bowled today I'm going to stick to the original plan of waiting until lunch day 4 and look to cash out then.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
Draw into $2.21 and the option is there now to cash out for a bit over double what was wagered. Not bad for 30 hours of 'work', however with the forecast in Manchester suggesting there won't be a ball bowled today I'm going to stick to the original plan of waiting until lunch day 4 and look to cash out then.
We all have times when the market moves in our favour. Anyone can bet and trade then.

What would you have done if it moved against you? Where was your bail out point? Or was it a straight set and forget bet? If it was, then you should leave the bet, as you will be losing value by 'trading' out. Over the long run, if you keep cutting your winners short and letting the losers run, then you will be straight to the poor house to join the bookies that i have routinely and systematically smashed year in and year out.
 

54Dogs

Premium Platinum
Feb 18, 2008
8,489
4,205
Nowra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
We all have times when the market moves in our favour. Anyone can bet and trade then.

What would you have done if it moved against you? Where was your bail out point? Or was it a straight set and forget bet? If it was, then you should leave the bet, as you will be losing value by 'trading' out. Over the long run, if you keep cutting your winners short and letting the losers run, then you will be straight to the poor house to join the bookies that i have routinely and systematically smashed year in and year out.
Not really. it depends on the situation.

If you take something at $6 that you rated a $3 chance of winning, and it comes into $2 and you still rate it a $3 chance, would you trade or hold?
 

Austoraisetheurn

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
394
695
AFL Club
Collingwood
Not really. it depends on the situation.

If you take something at $6 that you rated a $3 chance of winning, and it comes into $2 and you still rate it a $3 chance, would you trade or hold?
As I said, the issue isn't so much what you do when the market moves in your favor: the issue is what do you do when the market moves against you? This will determine whether you make money in this game or not.

Most people cut their winners short because they loathe to give up a profit, and they let their losses run because they are loathe to take a hit.

Us gamblers who play for high stakes need a systemic method of eliminating emotions and simply playing the long game.

If I had backed the draw @ $5.00 id have a predetermined price where I would exit my position, id base this on my natural risk tolerance, technical analysis using the betfair price graphs - ideally id be looking for upside resistance where if the market penetrated, id know that sentiment had changed. My main aim would be to minimise any financial loss.

I generally like to let winning bets run. I find the more i engage in a market, the more emotional i get, and the worse my performance.
 

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