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The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,109
17,421
AFL Club
St Kilda
Wow, incredibly- in the last 4 BBL games in a row... both teams have scored the same amount of runs in over 1.

It's happened 5 times in 18 games now this season and usually pays around ~$8 on SB.
 

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ricardogp

Club Legend
Jun 26, 2012
1,921
841
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Carlton
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McLaren
Just happened again bruva, paying $8.

6 times in 20 matches now, 5 of the last 6 matches.

Thanks for your incredible $2 odds bets big dog.
Meow.
Serious question... However the $8 price is calculated, given it is happening at a $3 rate, is this evidence of a miscalculation or just a bunch of outliers (e.g. Spinning black 5 times in a row). And how do you tell?

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iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
38,356
31,265
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Carlton
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Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Serious question... However the $8 price is calculated, given it is happening at a $3 rate, is this evidence of a miscalculation or just a bunch of outliers (e.g. Spinning black 5 times in a row). And how do you tell?

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you tell by sample size. It’s 99.9% to be an outlier like the first wicket being lbw chat earlier in the comp
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,109
17,421
AFL Club
St Kilda
you tell by sample size. It’s 99.9% to be an outlier like the first wicket being lbw chat earlier in the comp
Could well be, time will tell.

At the start of the comp it rarely occurred (once in the first 12 or so games).
Since then though it's occured in 5 of the last 6 games.

Again, as was the case with the lbw first wicket market- i am entirely expecting a large dropoff from the recent success and results revert to the mean.

However if the mean has shifted this season (ie it is becoming more prevalent than previous years) for whatever reason, there is still value to be had as SB have priced it at $8 based on past years.

As for speculating why there could be more tied first over scores this year than in years previous- perhaps it's a more even comp this year? Better opening bowlers (ties mostly happen with lower scoring first overs) Etc.

I haven't counted up the 'near miss' games (ie where the teams are a run or 2 apart), but I've noticed that occurs quite regularly too (ontop of the 6/20 hit rate).
To me this is a good sign that it is a market that holds promise.

Again, I fully expect that the current 30% hit rate will slide- but it needs to slide a long long long way to match its $8 pricetag.
(ie I don't think it will slide down as far as a 15% hit rate for the rest of the season for instance)

Given the number of 'near miss' games in the first 20 as well, I think it's looking like there is value to be had on this market all year if SB keep the price at ~$8.

I will also mention that a season of cricket is far more dynamic and shifting than spinning a roulette wheel or other games of pure chance.
The tactics employed and changing players etc create and change trends, something the players of true chance games like roulette etc cannot do.
The way the game is played never changes in roulette or the lottery, but it does in cricket.

Therefore a 'near miss' in roulette or the lottery is utterly meaningless, whereas I think a 'near miss' in this context can be ascribed some small meaning.
 
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ricardogp

Club Legend
Jun 26, 2012
1,921
841
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Carlton
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McLaren
Could you post the scores? If the mean has in fact changed, my own theory would be because some strategic change has caused the average first over scores to be lower causing the result set to be smaller hence more chance of a draw.

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The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,109
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St Kilda
Could you post the scores? If the mean has in fact changed, my own theory would be because some strategic change has caused the average first over scores to be lower causing the result set to be smaller hence more chance of a draw.

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Game 20 1 run
Game 18 6 runs
Game 17 6 runs
Game 16 7 runs
Game 15 5 runs
Game 6 8 runs

Anyone that could be bothered scrolling through the 'commentary' of each game can find out how many games have missed the tie by 1 run- I'd guess it's been a few- for instance game 1 was.


If you were really super keen you could scroll through the 'commentary' of last seasons games and find out what the average over 1 score was and while your at it record the hit rate of tied first over.
 
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TBellicious

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 4, 2013
5,031
7,867
AFL Club
Carlton
Gee I really think the $4.50 on TAB for the Thunder for the Big Bash title is overs. They look the best team. Bat extremely deep, and a good bowling line up (get Milne back from last game). Yes, anything can happen in the finals, but by then you won't be getting $4.50. I think they'll win.
 

Atavistic

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 22, 2008
5,260
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Essendon
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I might put a couple units on this one on Neds:

$1.80 Rashid Khan more wickets than Nabi. Nabi has bowled two overs a game for the past four games. Rashid nearly always bowls four. Rashid has 11 wickets for the BBL season; Nabi has three. The Renegades have been a basket case batting lately, so Rashid should pick up a couple.
 

freo_leo29

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 20, 2010
5,958
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Perth
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Fremantle
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I might put a couple units on this one on Neds:

$1.80 Rashid Khan more wickets than Nabi. Nabi has bowled two overs a game for the past four games. Rashid nearly always bowls four. Rashid has 11 wickets for the BBL season; Nabi has three. The Renegades have been a basket case batting lately, so Rashid should pick up a couple.
Of course he bowls his full four and ties with Khan


The very next match he has bowled 1 over and taken no wickets yet at the 16th over
 

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