HeathComeBack
Norm Smith Medallist
- Mar 17, 2014
- 9,252
- 10,409
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
This has classic early crow all over it.
Back on Tinder Urnie? What happened to your new love? Surely theres a story there!
OKC
0 v HOU
0 PM
BOS
0 v PHI
0 PM
NO
0 v DAL
0 PM
MIA
0 v CLE
0 PM
ORL
0 v DEN
0 PM
WSH
0 v MIN
0 PM
LAC
0 v SAC
0 PM
IND
0 v ATL
0 PM
MIL
0 v CHA
0 PM
PHX
104 v GS
96 FT
POR
110 v DET
92 FT
BRO
112 v NY
110 FT
CHI
133 v CHA
119 FT
SA
116 v WSH
99 FT
MIN
100 v IND
98 FT
HOU
102 v OKC
89 FT
DAL
96 v CLE
114 FT
LAC
104 v NO
123 FT
MIA
111 v DEN
120 FT
CZE
66 v LTU
74 FT
ESP
89 v GEO
61 FT
PHI
101 v ORL
96 FT
SAC
92 v LAL
117 FT
UTH
129 v POR
107 FT
TOR
91 v MEM
98 FT
Cricket Betting. Best Cricket Tipster in the land in here.
- Thread starter Austoraisetheurn
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Back on Tinder Urnie? What happened to your new love? Surely theres a story there!
Austoraisetheurn
All Australian
- Aug 25, 2019
- 615
- 962
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Just checking out the talent
Austoraisetheurn
All Australian
- Aug 25, 2019
- 615
- 962
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
$100 on Sri Lanka under 200 runs with the TAB @ $3.30
The_Steadier
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 6, 2009
- 8,967
- 19,492
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Wow, incredibly- in the last 4 BBL games in a row... both teams have scored the same amount of runs in over 1.
It's happened 5 times in 18 games now this season and usually pays around ~$8 on SB.
It's happened 5 times in 18 games now this season and usually pays around ~$8 on SB.
Red Dog Styles
Club Legend
The_Steadier
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 6, 2009
- 8,967
- 19,492
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Both teams have matched eachothers scores in over 1 of each of the last 4 games.
The actual scores vary, the SB market is tie highest first over score.
Austoraisetheurn
All Australian
- Aug 25, 2019
- 615
- 962
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Austoraisetheurn
All Australian
- Aug 25, 2019
- 615
- 962
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Another winner for the lads!
The_Steadier
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 6, 2009
- 8,967
- 19,492
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Too much mafs for you bro?
It's good that you know your own limitations and stay within them big dawg.
Red Dog Styles
Club Legend
Are you still an Adelaide supporter or just going for the early crow?
On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
EDFL follower
Club Legend
I lost a heap on the aussies and nearly lost a heap on the kiwis too. Luckily they got the victory with a couple of overs left to save me.
Austoraisetheurn
All Australian
- Aug 25, 2019
- 615
- 962
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
How much is heaps?
The_Steadier
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 6, 2009
- 8,967
- 19,492
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Just happened again bruva, paying $8.
6 times in 20 matches now, 5 of the last 6 matches.
Thanks for your incredible $2 odds bets big dog.
Meow.
EDFL follower
Club Legend
ricardogp
Club Legend
- Jun 26, 2012
- 1,975
- 888
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- McLaren
Serious question... However the $8 price is calculated, given it is happening at a $3 rate, is this evidence of a miscalculation or just a bunch of outliers (e.g. Spinning black 5 times in a row). And how do you tell?
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iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 44,185
- 36,200
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
you tell by sample size. It’s 99.9% to be an outlier like the first wicket being lbw chat earlier in the comp
The_Steadier
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 6, 2009
- 8,967
- 19,492
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Could well be, time will tell.
At the start of the comp it rarely occurred (once in the first 12 or so games).
Since then though it's occured in 5 of the last 6 games.
Again, as was the case with the lbw first wicket market- i am entirely expecting a large dropoff from the recent success and results revert to the mean.
However if the mean has shifted this season (ie it is becoming more prevalent than previous years) for whatever reason, there is still value to be had as SB have priced it at $8 based on past years.
As for speculating why there could be more tied first over scores this year than in years previous- perhaps it's a more even comp this year? Better opening bowlers (ties mostly happen with lower scoring first overs) Etc.
I haven't counted up the 'near miss' games (ie where the teams are a run or 2 apart), but I've noticed that occurs quite regularly too (ontop of the 6/20 hit rate).
To me this is a good sign that it is a market that holds promise.
Again, I fully expect that the current 30% hit rate will slide- but it needs to slide a long long long way to match its $8 pricetag.
(ie I don't think it will slide down as far as a 15% hit rate for the rest of the season for instance)
Given the number of 'near miss' games in the first 20 as well, I think it's looking like there is value to be had on this market all year if SB keep the price at ~$8.
I will also mention that a season of cricket is far more dynamic and shifting than spinning a roulette wheel or other games of pure chance.
The tactics employed and changing players etc create and change trends, something the players of true chance games like roulette etc cannot do.
The way the game is played never changes in roulette or the lottery, but it does in cricket.
Therefore a 'near miss' in roulette or the lottery is utterly meaningless, whereas I think a 'near miss' in this context can be ascribed some small meaning.
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ricardogp
Club Legend
- Jun 26, 2012
- 1,975
- 888
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- McLaren
Could you post the scores? If the mean has in fact changed, my own theory would be because some strategic change has caused the average first over scores to be lower causing the result set to be smaller hence more chance of a draw.
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The_Steadier
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 6, 2009
- 8,967
- 19,492
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Game 20 1 run
Game 18 6 runs
Game 17 6 runs
Game 16 7 runs
Game 15 5 runs
Game 6 8 runs
Anyone that could be bothered scrolling through the 'commentary' of each game can find out how many games have missed the tie by 1 run- I'd guess it's been a few- for instance game 1 was.
Big Bash League 2020/2021 Results, Live Scores - Cricket, Australia
Big Bash League 2020/2021 latest results. Big Bash League 2020/2021 results, live scores, fixtures, h2h stats and odds comparison.
If you were really super keen you could scroll through the 'commentary' of last seasons games and find out what the average over 1 score was and while your at it record the hit rate of tied first over.
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EDFL follower
Club Legend
Kiwis won the toss and bowled. I’m on them
TBellicious
Norm Smith Medallist
- Sep 4, 2013
- 5,396
- 8,428
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Gee I really think the $4.50 on TAB for the Thunder for the Big Bash title is overs. They look the best team. Bat extremely deep, and a good bowling line up (get Milne back from last game). Yes, anything can happen in the finals, but by then you won't be getting $4.50. I think they'll win.
EDFL follower
Club Legend
Can get $5 on Betfair
Atavistic
Norm Smith Medallist
I might put a couple units on this one on Neds:
$1.80 Rashid Khan more wickets than Nabi. Nabi has bowled two overs a game for the past four games. Rashid nearly always bowls four. Rashid has 11 wickets for the BBL season; Nabi has three. The Renegades have been a basket case batting lately, so Rashid should pick up a couple.
$1.80 Rashid Khan more wickets than Nabi. Nabi has bowled two overs a game for the past four games. Rashid nearly always bowls four. Rashid has 11 wickets for the BBL season; Nabi has three. The Renegades have been a basket case batting lately, so Rashid should pick up a couple.
freo_leo29
Norm Smith Medallist
Of course he bowls his full four and ties with Khan
The very next match he has bowled 1 over and taken no wickets yet at the 16th over
