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[mouncey2franklin]

The odds for Aus vs Pakistan in the semi are fairly even.

Anybody leaning towards one team or the other?

 

[freo_leo29]

The odds for Aus vs Pakistan in the semi are fairly even.

Anybody leaning towards one team or the other?

Hard to go past Pakistan

Have won something like 17 of 18 of the past games in the UAE

 

[Ohh Ok]

It’s a long way out still in terms of punting, but $1.70 for Australia in the first test seems a bet. Alternatively, bet365 have Australia to win the first test and then win the series at $1.80, but think that would have to be closer to $1.85-$1.90 to be value

 

[anabac]

Surely worth waiting to see what the weather is doing before jumping into $1.70

 

[iluvparis]

Surely worth waiting to see what the weather is doing before jumping into $1.70

Weather is pretty irrelevant these days - almost have to lose 1-1.5 full days play to get a draw

 

[Austoraisetheurn]

It’s a long way out still in terms of punting, but $1.70 for Australia in the first test seems a bet. Alternatively, bet365 have Australia to win the first test and then win the series at $1.80, but think that would have to be closer to $1.85-$1.90 to be value

Could end up looking back at the end of the first test and thinking $1.70 was overs, still, I won't be taking those odds after last summer's performance against India.

Another serving of that performance, especially from the Starc and Lyon, and we will lose the series.

 

[ash_1050]

La Niña is going to print some serious money for the opening test. Pointsbet are lagging the rest of the market and offering $3.60 for a draw when the forecast is 3 days of thunderstorms, 1 day of showers and 1 day of scattered thunderstorms. Even Betfair is $3.45.




Have backed up the truck accordingly, if we get more than 270 overs in I'd be very surprised.

 

[ash_1050]

Now into $3.15 on Pointsbet, they've realised.

 

[The_Steadier]

La Niña is going to print some serious money for the opening test. Pointsbet are lagging the rest of the market and offering $3.60 for a draw when the forecast is 3 days of thunderstorms, 1 day of showers and 1 day of scattered thunderstorms. Even Betfair is $3.45.


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Have backed up the truck accordingly, if we get more than 270 overs in I'd be very surprised.

I've gone further backing LaNina in this year and had some nibbles via multi legs on the nice odds of a 2-1 aus series win @ $15 and also a 2-2 series @ $9.

Reckon a combination of the weather, closely matched sides and new aus captain (maybe not wanting to be super aggressive?) could mean there will be a couple of draws.

The aus 2-1 @ $15 is particularly good value I think given it's only 1 extra draw away from the aus 3-1 result which is way shorter @ $5

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I've gone further backing LaNina in this year and had some nibbles via multi legs on the nice odds of a 2-1 aus series win @ $15 and also a 2-2 series @ $9.

Reckon a combination of the weather, closely matched sides and new aus captain (maybe not wanting to be super aggressive?) could mean there will be a couple of draws.

The aus 2-1 @ $15 is particularly good value I think given it's only 1 extra draw away from the aus 3-1 result which is way shorter @ $5

Neither side can bat, they will only need 3 to 3.5 days a test to get a result, and England won't win one. This is a shocking England side, they have 1 batsman (Root), their second best bat hasn't had a hit in 6 months. As bad as we are they are miles worse. I'd be leaning towards 4-0 and hoping there's a draw in Sydney or something.

 

[burge13]

Ive taken 3.30 on the draw but much like taking unders in footy relying on weather, the weatherman is almost always wrong!

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Ive taken 3.30 on the draw but much like taking unders in footy relying on weather, the weatherman is almost always wrong!

You better hope it rains for 3 days. Both these sides can really collapse. It wouldn’t shock me if we see 275 being a fantastic score with the bat, I mean we have 2.5 batsmen and they have 2 batsmen with one who is coming in cold.

 

[burge13]

You better hope it rains for 3 days. Both these sides can really collapse. It wouldn’t shock me if we see 275 being a fantastic score with the bat, I mean we have 2.5 batsmen and they have 2 batsmen with one who is coming in cold.

I dont disagree at all but s**t if we lose 150 overs which seems somewhat conservative given the forecast and they cant see that out for a draw test cricket is doomed...

Id like to think its not dead yet.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I dont disagree at all but sh*t if we lose 150 overs which seems somewhat conservative given the forecast and they cant see that out for a draw test cricket is doomed...

Id like to think its not dead yet.

Have you seen both sides bat lately?

 

[iluvparis]

I dont disagree at all but sh*t if we lose 150 overs which seems somewhat conservative given the forecast and they cant see that out for a draw test cricket is doomed...

Id like to think its not dead yet.

Draws in tests have basically been dead for 5 years unless 1.5 days minimum are washed out

 

[burge13]

Draws in tests have basically been dead for 5 years unless 1.5 days minimum are washed out

And the weather forecast looks to make this the case

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Draws in tests have basically been dead for 5 years unless 1.5 days minimum are washed out

Also these sides make it impossible to have draws they can’t bat for more than 70 overs and that’s on a good day. Both sides have good bowling and pathetic batting. Even if we lose a day bare in mind time is made up.

 

[iluvparis]

And the weather forecast looks to make this the case

Sure - but betting based on weather forecasts is a solid road to the poor house as many totals punters in AFL can attest

 

[burge13]

Sure - but betting based on weather forecasts is a solid road to the poor house as many totals punters in AFL can attest

Exactly what i posted initially!

Its into 2.65 now anyway

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Sure - but betting based on weather forecasts is a solid road to the poor house as many totals punters in AFL can attest

What can possibly go wrong trusting the weather bloke who has never been right in his life..

 

[iluvparis]

Exactly what i posted initially!

Its into 2.65 now anyway

Any test where the draw is sub $3 probably means one of the other sides is worth a bet

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Any test where the draw is sub $3 probably means one of the other sides is worth a bet

Think I remember the draw being like that last year in Sydney…

Then we lost

 

[ash_1050]

Draws in tests have basically been dead for 5 years unless 1.5 days minimum are washed out

Every couple of years I have a crack at a test match ending in a draw due to weather and every couple of years I usually end up getting burnt by it.

But I'm having a crack again, at $3.60 there was value in it, the current odds of $2.80 much less so.

 

[corbies]

Think I remember the draw being like that last year in Sydney…

Then we lost

??? It was a draw in Sydney.

 

[iluvparis]

??? It was a draw in Sydney.

Classic LP self pwn