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Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
230
320
AFL Club
Collingwood
Australia v Sri Lanka 1st T20 October 27th 2019

David Warner 10 runs or under @ $3.70 (Pointsbet)

Cashed 50% of the time over the last 5 years with the Warner....Last 10 years this bet cashes 38% of the time. Some chunky value there. Good chunky. Phat chunky.

You can play this market by itself....or you can 'hedge' a little.

Ed Hawkins has a podcast called Cricket Bettor, in it he mentioned that Warner has a 40% win rate in the High Bat Markets (Australia) in T20s.

You could back both markets, which in theory gives you a 78% chance of winning one of the markets...with equivalent odds of $1.86 (Warner @ $3.75 with TopSport).

Use an arbitage calculator to calculate the exact stakes you need...i use pinnacle arbitage calculator. Just google it.

But for the basis of my tipping record on here....i am backing Warner to score 10 runs or less straight out. No hedging. $3.70 is value.
 

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Red Dog Styles

All Australian
Feb 13, 2017
881
504
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Jam money as both 25+ $1.85 & 50+ $3.40 both cash as per previous Lanning post

With an average of 50+ in WBBL over 4 seasons there is a big enough sample size to trust this was going to cash at some stage

Over to you urnie
Definitely the new thread leader;
gave plenty of time for us to get on, clear bet analysis, value, delivered.

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

burge13

All Australian
Jan 25, 2019
832
1,145
AFL Club
Adelaide
The #1 tipster here will return for the Aussie test summer. I dont play childish games with minnows, just us. +10U on cricket. Verifiable through my posts.

Patience is a virtue lads. Be patient and ill be profitable. What more could one ask for?

Until then, Austoraisetheurn will hold the fort as #2. Ill pop back to check tips and see if someone overtakes him, keep at it lads!
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
230
320
AFL Club
Collingwood
The #1 tipster here will return for the Aussie test summer. I dont play childish games with minnows, just us. +10U on cricket. Verifiable through my posts.

Patience is a virtue lads. Be patient and ill be profitable. What more could one ask for?

Until then, Austoraisetheurn will hold the fort as #2. Ill pop back to check tips and see if someone overtakes him, keep at it lads!
My Davey warner player made lumber for the lads as suggested....

I took the bull by the horns and took the value bets.

The process is what counts.

Get around me lads!!!!
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
230
320
AFL Club
Collingwood
New Zealand v England T20 Friday 1st of November

Getting in early with this one lads, some ripper value here to be had.

Note this bet is available with TopSport in their 'Match Specials Market'.

Martin Guptill to hit both a 4 and a 6 @ $2.10

At home, the Gupster has cashed this market 22/32 occasions for a 68.8% win rate. The odds suggest an implied probability of 47.6% which gives as an edge of 21.2%.

Needless to say, these odds will either shorten or be removed once the traders at Top Sport realise the work experience kid priced up this market. Get on it lads.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
230
320
AFL Club
Collingwood
Australia v SL T20 Wed 30th October, 2019

Davey Warner 10 runs or less @ $3.85 (Pointsbet Under Players Run Bands heading)

Never going to turn down value, like I never turn down a roll in the hay with a shapely milf from the local on a saturdey night....especially with a bit of dodgy beer floating around in my belly.

Even if it is a dodgy one, and it goes against your gut, you know the cold hard statistics don't lie, and in the morning you will be going hammer and tong again, even if your old folks are having breaky and reading the local paper as the bed shakes like all buggery.

Soft lads the lot of ya. Im going in again on this one. Cashes 38% of the time. This is value. If you turn down value....you will never succeed in this game. I am the king for a reason.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
230
320
AFL Club
Collingwood
Australia v SL T20 Wed 30th October, 2019

Arbitrage Opportunity.

Kusal Perera

11-20 runs @ $4.20 (Pointsbet) (1 unit Stake)

51+ runs @ $6.00 (Pointsbet) (1.43 unit Stake)

My davey warner arbitrage cashed handsomely, even more handsome then myself, which is saying something considering I closely resemble Brad Pitt from Fight Club....dont hate on me lads.

Be that as it may, I have even put up a staking plan for you public school edumacated plebs. Im privately edumacated....sure...im still a loser, but at least Im a privately edumacated loser.

If you play the 2 bets above, you are essentially taking one bet at the odds of $2.47. This one bet cashes 55% of the time. You are swimming in a sea of value, like I am swimming in a sea of milfs when i hit the local dancefloor.
 

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