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Red Dog Styles

All Australian
Feb 13, 2017
855
484
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Australia v SL T20 Wed 30th October, 2019

Arbitrage Opportunity.

Kusal Perera

11-20 runs @ $4.20 (Pointsbet) (1 unit Stake)

51+ runs @ $6.00 (Pointsbet) (1.43 unit Stake)

My davey warner arbitrage cashed handsomely, even more handsome then myself, which is saying something considering I closely resemble Brad Pitt from Fight Club....dont hate on me lads.

Be that as it may, I have even put up a staking plan for you public school edumacated plebs. Im privately edumacated....sure...im still a loser, but at least Im a privately edumacated loser.

If you play the 2 bets above, you are essentially taking one bet at the odds of $2.47. This one bet cashes 55% of the time. You are swimming in a sea of value, like I am swimming in a sea of milfs when i hit the local dancefloor.
I've been listening to your banging on since the start. Been rolling in it since.
Time for the rest of you lads to beat the jungle drums and get rich too
BaleBigShort.jpeg


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ash_1050

Club Legend
Nov 21, 2009
2,705
4,419
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory and Arsenal
Australia v Sri Lanka 1st T20 October 27th 2019

David Warner 10 runs or under @ $3.70 (Pointsbet)

But for the basis of my tipping record on here....i am backing Warner to score 10 runs or less straight out. No hedging. $3.70 is value.
Glenn Maxwell Top Bat @ $6.00 ubet
Sri Lanka @ $5.00 ubet
My Davey warner player made lumber for the lads as suggested....

I took the bull by the horns and took the value bets.

The process is what counts.

Get around me lads!!!!

uhhhhh what landed out of curiosity?
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
212
AFL Club
Collingwood
Look lads....you guys gotta stand on ya own 2 feet....I'm not explaining everything for ya public school educmacated plans.

The reality is.....I'm posting gun plays....massive value.....get on it.
 

X_box_X

King of September
Mar 15, 2001
19,734
5,041
DogLands
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Chelsea
X box X is lurking no doubt....come on mate...where are ya plays?
I don't think you understand what an arbitrage is. If this thread wasn't past it's use-by date two days ago, it certainly was the moment you posted an arbitrage that wasn't actually an arbitrage.
 

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ash_1050

Club Legend
Nov 21, 2009
2,705
4,419
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory and Arsenal
I don't think you understand what an arbitrage is. If this thread wasn't past it's use-by date two days ago, it certainly was the moment you posted an arbitrage that wasn't actually an arbitrage.
Arbitrage is where you double your bet every time it loses isn't it? Foolproof system, no one is unlucky enough to get 7 wrong in a row for something that's a 50/50 bet.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
212
AFL Club
Collingwood
I don't think you understand what an arbitrage is. If this thread wasn't past it's use-by date two days ago, it certainly was the moment you posted an arbitrage that wasn't actually an arbitrage.
Simple answer soft lad.

Get out of the thread if you aren't feeling it.

The other lads here are getting around me and we are feeling it.

You are quite welcome to get around me.

We can all feel it.

Let's feel it.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
212
AFL Club
Collingwood
Arbitrage is where you double your bet every time it loses isn't it? Foolproof system, no one is unlucky enough to get 7 wrong in a row for something that's a 50/50 bet.
I know a hell of a lot about betting mate. More than I let on.

Arbitrage has its origins in financial securities trading...the idea of backing and laying or backing two sets of bookies odds to lock in a certain profit is simple stuff to understand.

Technically...what I did was not arbitrage....but I was still taking advantage of incorrect odds. It didnt work out tonight but so what?

If you do that day in and day out you will make profit.

I will keep posting my plays if the lads want me to.

Get around me lads!
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
212
AFL Club
Collingwood
The lads are getting restless.
We need a spark from the cricket master.
Like coming home after a big night out & rolling a fine one up with the Latina milf picked up at the club
Let’s get around him lads
Hell yeah.

Reminds me of.my last roll in the hay.

Picked up a 45 year old milf off the old pof. We meet at a local pub. Play pool and then get a hotel room and go to town.

Is was the night Stokes got the poms home.

Here I am checking scores while a gorgeous milf has her foot in my mouth trying to get me to go another round. Which I duly did.
 

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Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
212
AFL Club
Collingwood
Loaded up on the kiwi pommy t20

All bets with toppysport

Nz over 169.5 runs @ 1.90....must bat 1st or the bet is pushed

Eoin morgan the lad under 1.5 fours @ 2.08

Jonny Barstow over 0.5 maximums @ 1.95

Plus the earlier bet with guptill.

I'm feeling it. If we cash....maybe a dirty pash on the dancefloor to celebrate....the type where you get salvia all over ya face and taste last night's dodgy kebab.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
212
AFL Club
Collingwood
+aus most sixer @1.30

Even safer and unlike Cummins wont have to split winnings with other bowlers like last t20 (4 bowlers ended on 2 wickets)

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6s are impacted greatly by batting 1st or 2nd.....too short for my liking....batting 2nd the team chasing can look to pace the innings...esp if the target is on the skinny side....

I don't have my database open atm but I'm pretty sure sl pipped the Aus boys in this market on Wed.
 

Red Dog Styles

All Australian
Feb 13, 2017
855
484
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Hawthorn
6s are impacted greatly by batting 1st or 2nd.....too short for my liking....batting 2nd the team chasing can look to pace the innings...esp if the target is on the skinny side....

I don't have my database open atm but I'm pretty sure sl pipped the Aus boys in this market on Wed.
Yeah they did for exact reason you said to, good point

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Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
212
AFL Club
Collingwood
Another day of bad luck, it'll turn around son keep at it!
I've been in this game for years lad.

I know boats.

I made money today as I loaded up on my Barstow bet....my individual record shows my sixes under over bets are my best performers.

We took a hit on the other markets....but only the best survive in this game.

Hence why I'm sharing my knowledge with the unwashed on here.
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
212
AFL Club
Collingwood
Whats the current record since starting this thread?
I did an updated p and l a few posts back....after adding today's results I'd have it a guess I'm -12 units.

But you need to have the bankroll/discipline and confidence to ride these downswings. More just the discipline to be honest.....

If anyone feels they can do better than me.... they are quite welcome to post.

Betting is a process of identifying value and relentlessly backing those markets where value has been identified.

The results will take care of themselves.
 

NonPhixion

Outlaw Immortalz
Mar 27, 2018
1,423
1,422
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
In all honesty, you seem to have a good understanding of the fundamentals. I know stuff all about cricket but it does seem like a sport with a high level of variance. Especially with props.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
12,795
13,985
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
In all honesty, you seem to have a good understanding of the fundamentals. I know stuff all about cricket but it does seem like a sport with a high level of variance. Especially with props.
Yeah I know very little but over constraining stats when really it can be quite basic is harmful. Ideally you would want to maximise sample size you betting on not constrain it down to 5 similar innings. That was my first observation anyway.

I'd suggest most pricing algorithms work like

D.Warner Subcontinent vs standard
D.Warner right arm Fast vs standard
D.Warner current form vs standard
...
...
weighted value out pops a value for expected score Warner vs Bumrah at Delhi.
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2014
5,004
4,436
AFL Club
Collingwood
Yeah I know very little but over constraining stats when really it can be quite basic is harmful. Ideally you would want to maximise sample size you betting on not constrain it down to 5 similar innings. That was my first observation anyway.

I'd suggest most pricing algorithms work like

D.Warner Subcontinent vs standard
D.Warner right arm Fast vs standard
D.Warner current form vs standard
...
...
weighted value out pops a value for expected score Warner vs Bumrah at Delhi.
nerds dont get the milfs
 

Austoraisetheurn

Senior List
Aug 25, 2019
182
212
AFL Club
Collingwood
In all honesty, you seem to have a good understanding of the fundamentals. I know stuff all about cricket but it does seem like a sport with a high level of variance. Especially with props.
Indeed I do. I am just updating my databases at the moment.

IMO, good betting is just taking odds that under represent the true probability of something occurring. That is all it is. Obviously there is a lot of chest thumping in here, but that is just with tongue firmly planted in cheek. It is to liven things up a bit.

Betting is a process that is designed to emotionally hook its participants and get them to lose control.

For me I enjoy the number crunching, looking for an edge, putting your bets on, and then not even watching the game and checking your account balance sometimes hours after the game has ended. And then updating databases etc.

Anyone who bets at all needs to have a process that makes them as emotionally detached from the game as possible. That is imo, the number 1 thing that destroys gamblers.
 

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