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Austoraisetheurn

Austoraisetheurn

Cancelled
Aug 25, 2019
619
976
AFL Club
Collingwood
Hi gents and lasses.

I've been cleaning out bookies for years at cricket. Not going to go into my methods....just to say I pick value bets. Will be keeping an updated record as each bet wins or losses.

Let's get straight into it.

5th Ashes Test

Stuey Broad Under 2.5 wickets (1st innings) @ $1.80 (TopSport)

Joey Root Player Performance Under 100.5 points @ $1.87 (unibet)

Jossy Butler Player Performance Under 74.5 @ $1.87 (unibet)

3 early bets for the lads...

More to come post toss and in play bets during the game.
 

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The narrative of the match will be framed around the toss. Both sides are relatively weak with the bat....the security blanket of runs on the board is a distinct advantage.

Will be looking to back the side who bats first....hammering any weakness in their price if early wickets fall.

Question marks around Stoke's shoulder...im not sure whether he is bowling.... im stearing clear of him in terms of exotics because of this.

If England bat first....then id be looking at Joey Root for MOTM at around $13 dollars for smallish stakes...will also be tempted to smash Jonny Bairstow in to score a 50 in the first dig at around $3.75 with unibet...maybe more around if you dig a little.

I've got a huge database that I use to find value and smash the bookies at their own game.

As I said...im a gun cricket better because I only play value.
 
54Dogs said:
It's fantastic to see the gun punters stepping out to share the spoils at no personal gain. Should be more of it.

Maybe we need a cricket tout for next summer, we have a rival for Tom here
Click to expand...

In saying that...if Aus bat 1st...then Smith has an incredible record away from home (and at home for that matter) at scoring hundreds....last 5 years when Aus bat first away from home...he has scored 7 tons in 12 innings. Incredible.

Smith has been quoted at $3-$3.25 to score a ton in the 1st innings with some bookies I've seen ...if you can get on this price after the toss....then don't be afraid....you need to hit value whenever you see it. Don't think that Smith is due a failure. Take the value.

As I said...the toss frames the entire market. Don't write England off either if they get to have a hit first.
 
Red Dog Styles said:
Very mediocre picks. Thought you would bring something a bit more studied.
Like Sam Curran top wucket taker England

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...

Broad has a poor record at the oval...the unders has cashed 10/11 occasions there....the only one that failed was when he tore us apart in 2009.

His played all 4 test matches.....im happy to take him on.

All my pics are backed by stats and fundamental analysis.
 
Austoraisetheurn said:
The narrative of the match will be framed around the toss. Both sides are relatively weak with the bat....the security blanket of runs on the board is a distinct advantage.

Will be looking to back the side who bats first....hammering any weakness in their price if early wickets fall.

Question marks around Stoke's shoulder...im not sure whether he is bowling.... im stearing clear of him in terms of exotics because of this.

If England bat first....then id be looking at Joey Root for MOTM at around $13 dollars for smallish stakes...will also be tempted to smash Jonny Bairstow in to score a 50 in the first dig at around $3.75 with unibet...maybe more around if you dig a little.

I've got a huge database that I use to find value and smash the bookies at their own game.

As I said...im a gun cricket better because I only play value.
Click to expand...

It will be a fair effort if Joey Root can snare MOTM while also hitting your player performance unders - is there a SGM multi available somewhere to really enhance this play?
 
iluvparis said:
It will be a fair effort if Joey Root can snare MOTM while also hitting your player performance unders - is there a SGM multi available somewhere to really enhance this play?
Click to expand...

Clearly....you'd be risking 1/5th compared to size of your stake on the unders....also....only if the coin falls your way.

Rookie.
 
iluvparis said:
It will be a fair effort if Joey Root can snare MOTM while also hitting your player performance unders - is there a SGM multi available somewhere to really enhance this play?
Click to expand...

First thing about betting son...is you don't look to pick winners...you look to find markets that are inefficient. Where the odds don't reflect the true probability (in the bettors opinion).

Each bet on its own is really a random walk in the park...
Over 100s of bets....if you keep taking value....you will make money.

Never ever think you can't play both sides of a market...if I'm taking root on the unders before the toss.....why can't I take him on the other side after the toss?

Aus will find it hard to win if we are batting 2nd....so you can surmise that the MOTM award will come from the England team. Root...at home...batting first....has a win rate of 15% for the MOTM award.

TopSport has Joey Root @ $13...ubet at $11...fair price if England bat first is $6.60.

Rookie.
 

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Austoraisetheurn said:
First thing about betting son...is you don't look to pick winners...you look to find markets that are inefficient. Where the odds don't reflect the true probability (in the bettors opinion).

Each bet on its own is really a random walk in the park...
Over 100s of bets....if you keep taking value....you will make money.

Never ever think you can't play both sides of a market...if I'm taking root on the unders before the toss.....why can't I take him on the other side after the toss?

Aus will find it hard to win if we are batting 2nd....so you can surmise that the MOTM award will come from the England team. Root...at home...batting first....has a win rate of 15% for the MOTM award.

TopSport has Joey Root @ $13...ubet at $11...fair price if England bat first is $6.60.

Rookie.
Click to expand...
Must be new around here
 
Austoraisetheurn said:
First thing about betting son...is you don't look to pick winners...you look to find markets that are inefficient. Where the odds don't reflect the true probability (in the bettors opinion).

Each bet on its own is really a random walk in the park...
Over 100s of bets....if you keep taking value....you will make money.

Never ever think you can't play both sides of a market...if I'm taking root on the unders before the toss.....why can't I take him on the other side after the toss?

Aus will find it hard to win if we are batting 2nd....so you can surmise that the MOTM award will come from the England team. Root...at home...batting first....has a win rate of 15% for the MOTM award.

TopSport has Joey Root @ $13...ubet at $11...fair price if England bat first is $6.60.

Rookie.
Click to expand...

So whats the fair price on his player performance market if they bat first?
 
ash_1050 said:
Good job bobbing up for the 5th test, I might make a grand final thread after having a ripper AFL season.

Get in early for value bets on Norm Smith betting for Scotty Pendleberry, Dommy Sheed and Mitchy Robinson.
Click to expand...

How is that relevant? Cricket is literally an all-year sport these days...either internationals, or domestic T20s, women's cricket gaining increasing exposure, there is always something on.
 
5th Ashes Test Preview

Lets fire up lads for a huge week of punting. Locked in bets already to go. All still available at time of writing.

Exotics

  1. Stuey Broad Under 2.5 wickets (1st innings) @ $1.80 (TopSport)
  2. Joey Root Player Performance Under 100.5 points @ $1.87 (unibet)
  3. Jossy Butler Player Performance Under 74.5 @ $1.87 (unibet)
These bets are based on ground history, performance against Australia and overall performance.

Game plan (Head to Head)

There has been a lot of hyperbole around the Australian's retaining the Ashes. I am a massive Aus cricket fan, but lets not be fooled by randomness. Australia had the advantage of batting first 3/4 occasions and that there explains why we have retained the urn. Head to head betting normally revolves around trying to make a case for the underdog, you don't need to be a rocket scientist, which suits my clientele to the tee.

The last 10 years at home England, when they bat first, have won 27 matches, lost 5 and drew 4. Batting first gives England an implied win probability of 75%. Conversely, Australia, away from home, and fielding first, have won 6, lost 15 and drew 3. No surprises to suggest that if England win the toss, you should be hitting them at anything over $2.00. They are $2.45 with Unibet at time of writing, and they will undoubtedly shorten after the toss, but Id still be taking them at $2.00 or more. In-play you could easily get them at $2.80+ if an early wicket falls.

First Innings Score

TopSport have the first innings line (irrespective of her wins the toss) set at 330.5. I dont normally play this market, and Im not on this occasions, but this line has been cleared 13/18 occasions (72%) since 2000 at The Oval by the team batting first. Odds with TopSport are $1.85. This equates to an implied probability of 54%.

Jonny Bairstow

Scores a 50 or more on 41% of occasions when batting first over the last 5 years, both at home and away. Unibet have him priced up to score a 50 in the first innings at $3.75. Implied probability of 26.6%. A nice chunky bit of value there at some nice, juicy, succulent chunky odds. Get on after the toss if you can. Im on a date tonight lads, so I have locked in the 3 bets above under 'exotics' already.

Will post during the match with thoughts and updated game plans for the lads.

Happy punting.
 
iluvparis said:
I am sticking with the Palmer bet promo and backing Australia at $2.00 - if Cummins gets 3 wickets in the first innings and we lose (like Headingly - vomit) you get your stake back as a bonus bet.
Click to expand...

Just had a quick look at the statistics. Nice promo. Nice hit. Good luck.
 
T20 India v South Africa (Sunday 2330 pm)

Love playing the away T20 markets, the bookies get lazy and we can drill them. Rookies.

1) David Miller - Under 0.5 sixes @ $1.82 (TopSport) This lad has a poor record against India away from home, is yet to hit a 6 in 9 outings against India away from South Africa. Easy money for the lads.

More to come in the next few days lads once the PointsBet crew get their markets up for their ritual crushing.
 
Austoraisetheurn said:
T20 India v South Africa (Sunday 2330 pm)

Love playing the away T20 markets, the bookies get lazy and we can drill them. Rookies.

1) David Miller - Under 0.5 sixes @ $1.82 (TopSport) This lad has a poor record against India away from home, is yet to hit a 6 in 9 outings against India away from South Africa. Easy money for the lads.

More to come in the next few days lads once the PointsBet crew get their markets up for their ritual crushing.
Click to expand...
Thats a great bet

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
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