Cripps Bontempelli Merrett Kelly - the next big 4?

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That is very specific. Neither Dangerfield or Fy

Now Bontempelli absolutely deserves a great deal of credit for being great for longer - any ranking of players requires evidence of sustained performance - and he also deserves credit for playing great throughout the finals. His past two seasons have been exceptional for any player and he is firmly entrenched in the leagues top 5 to 10 players. But this idea that there is 'daylight' or that the gap hasn't closed significantly between Bontempelli and Merrett / Cripps isn't reflected in the actual numbers and available measures of production and impact on the contest.

By seasons end, and in the absence of any injuries, I would not be surprised to see Bontempelli, Merrett and Cripps ranked in the top 10 according to the AFL Player Rankings.
I think you miss the point with Bont he doesn't need your 30+ to be the most effective and generally stats favour quantity over quality and can be misleading. Bont spends less time in the midfield than the other two as he is just as effective elsewhere on the ground.
 

calyam

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I think you miss the point with Bont he doesn't need your 30+ to be the most effective and generally stats favour quantity over quality and can be misleading. Bont spends less time in the midfield than the other two as he is just as effective elsewhere on the ground.
I don't think I miss any point when it comes to Bontempelli. Back in 2015 I was writing posts on here saying that he was beyond exceptional for his age, that he was among the best players in the game and was deserving of a place in the All Australian team. I'm well aware of how good he is and the way in which he plays the game.

One of the pleasing aspects of the AFL Player Ratings is that they quantify the impact of every disposal and in the process measure quality over quantity. That is one of the reasons why Bontempelli ranks so highly according to this measure. The same goes for the likes of Rioli and Naitanui - two players who have been criticised for not finding enough of the ball but tend to make every possession counts.

It also isn't detrimental to spend time forward of the centre. That's where possessions can do the most damage. Most of the midfielders who rank very well are those who either spend time forward (such as Robbie Gray) or have the ability to impact the game heavily in the forward half (such as Ablett and Dangerfield).

Now I've argued that the gap has closed somewhat because that is what the data tells me. It is also consistent with what I've watched of the three players. Each of them plays the game in a different manner but each of them is very good at what they do. I don't know whether Merrett and Cripps can sustain the form they had over the second half of last season but if they do then we can arrive at no other conclusion than to say that the gap between them and Bontempelli has narrowed.
 
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I don't think I miss any point when it comes to Bontempelli. Back in 2015 I was writing posts on here saying that he was beyond exceptional for his age, that he was among the best players in the game and was deserving of a place in the All Australian team. I'm well aware of how good he is and the way in which he plays the game.

One of the pleasing aspects of the AFL Player Ratings is that they quantify the impact of every disposal and in the process measure quality over quantity. That is one of the reasons why Bontempelli ranks so highly according to this measure. The same goes for the likes of Rioli and Naitanui - two players who have been criticised for not finding enough of the ball but tend to make every possession counts.

It also isn't detrimental to spend time forward of the centre. That's where possessions can do the most damage. Most of the midfielders who rank very well are those who either spend time forward (such as Robbie Gray) or have the ability to impact the game heavily in the forward half (such as Ablett and Dangerfield).

Now I've argued that the gap has closed somewhat because that is what the data tells me. It is also consistent with what I've watched of the three players. Each of them plays the game in a different manner but each of them is very good at what they do. I don't know whether Merrett and Cripps can sustain the form they had over the second half of last season but if they do then we can arrive at no other conclusion than to say that the gap between them and Bontempelli has narrowed.
Ok I concede it might have narrowed but its still a chasm IMO and I wouldn't think there is anyone in the football world who wouldn't pick the Bont first if it were a mini draft
 

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The problem is Zach Merrett hasn't proved that he can consistently beat a tag yet. In fact he wasn't even tagged last year, Zaharakis was the player the opposition chose to tag last year(Jacobs, Nelson, Taylor Hunt, Barlow, etc) which lets Merrett off the leash and inflates his stats. In comparison Cripps and Bontempelli are both the #1 tagged player for their teams. And have both shown to be able to consistently beat a tag. In fact Bontemepelli was being tagged back in 2015 (Bernie Vince, Jacobs, Weller, Greenwood), and Cripps was also tagged in 2015 by Bernie Vince and was BOG with 2 goals, 16 contested possessions and 8 clearances.

So until Merrett becomes damaging enough for opposition teams to choose to sacrifice a player to stop him. And then show that he is also good enough to beat said tag, he cannot yet be compared to Cripps and Bont yet (especially Bont).
 

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The problem is Zach Merrett hasn't proved that he can consistently beat a tag yet. In fact he wasn't even tagged last year, Zaharakis was the player the opposition chose to tag last year(Jacobs, Nelson, Taylor Hunt, Barlow, etc) which lets Merrett off the leash and inflates his stats. In comparison Cripps and Bontempelli are both the #1 tagged player for their teams. And have both shown to be able to consistently beat a tag. In fact Bontemepelli was being tagged back in 2015 (Bernie Vince, Jacobs, Weller, Greenwood), and Cripps was also tagged in 2015 by Bernie Vince and was BOG with 2 goals, 16 contested possessions and 8 clearances.

So until Merrett becomes damaging enough for opposition teams to choose to sacrifice a player to stop him. And then show that he is also good enough to beat said tag, he cannot yet be compared to Cripps and Bont yet (especially Bont).
I'll let Merrett know that he's not good enough to tag , Sam Mitchell hasn't been worthy of a tag either for his career
 

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The problem is Zach Merrett hasn't proved that he can consistently beat a tag yet. In fact he wasn't even tagged last year, Zaharakis was the player the opposition chose to tag last year(Jacobs, Nelson, Taylor Hunt, Barlow, etc) which lets Merrett off the leash and inflates his stats. In comparison Cripps and Bontempelli are both the #1 tagged player for their teams. And have both shown to be able to consistently beat a tag. In fact Bontemepelli was being tagged back in 2015 (Bernie Vince, Jacobs, Weller, Greenwood), and Cripps was also tagged in 2015 by Bernie Vince and was BOG with 2 goals, 16 contested possessions and 8 clearances.

So until Merrett becomes damaging enough for opposition teams to choose to sacrifice a player to stop him. And then show that he is also good enough to beat said tag, he cannot yet be compared to Cripps and Bont yet (especially Bont).
Merrett finished with 37 disposals after being tagged by Shiels in the second half. You might want to actually watch him play before you spout bullshit.
 

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The problem is Zach Merrett hasn't proved that he can consistently beat a tag yet. In fact he wasn't even tagged last year, Zaharakis was the player the opposition chose to tag last year(Jacobs, Nelson, Taylor Hunt, Barlow, etc) which lets Merrett off the leash and inflates his stats. In comparison Cripps and Bontempelli are both the #1 tagged player for their teams. And have both shown to be able to consistently beat a tag. In fact Bontemepelli was being tagged back in 2015 (Bernie Vince, Jacobs, Weller, Greenwood), and Cripps was also tagged in 2015 by Bernie Vince and was BOG with 2 goals, 16 contested possessions and 8 clearances.

So until Merrett becomes damaging enough for opposition teams to choose to sacrifice a player to stop him. And then show that he is also good enough to beat said tag, he cannot yet be compared to Cripps and Bont yet (especially Bont).
I vividly remember Bontempelli being tagged in Round 1 2015 vs West Coast, the first game of his second year and only his 17th game of AFL footy. He finished with 22 disposals, a goal, 10 tackles and was given the three votes. Incredible for a seond year player.
 

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The problem is Zach Merrett hasn't proved that he can consistently beat a tag yet. In fact he wasn't even tagged last year, Zaharakis was the player the opposition chose to tag last year(Jacobs, Nelson, Taylor Hunt, Barlow, etc) which lets Merrett off the leash and inflates his stats. In comparison Cripps and Bontempelli are both the #1 tagged player for their teams. And have both shown to be able to consistently beat a tag. In fact Bontemepelli was being tagged back in 2015 (Bernie Vince, Jacobs, Weller, Greenwood), and Cripps was also tagged in 2015 by Bernie Vince and was BOG with 2 goals, 16 contested possessions and 8 clearances.

So until Merrett becomes damaging enough for opposition teams to choose to sacrifice a player to stop him. And then show that he is also good enough to beat said tag, he cannot yet be compared to Cripps and Bont yet (especially Bont).
Yeah noticed Merrett was pretty loose on the weekend.
 

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Merrett finished with 37 disposals after being tagged by Shiels in the second half. You might want to actually watch him play before you spout bullshit.
You might want to go back and watch the game yourself mate. It was not a hard tag, they simply went head to head at some stoppages which happens in every game. Clarko never does hard tags. Which is obvious if you actually look at Shiels stats, he only had 2 tackles for the whole game. This is a bloke who averaged 9 tackles a game last year.

Anyway, why so touchy mate? What did I say that was such "bullshit"?
 
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dick measuring contest at its finest. Who honestly gives a glory be that one is better than the other - they are all young stars of the comp and will probably be top 20 players for the next 10 years. You should all rejoice and accept the high fives
 

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You might want to go back and watch the game yourself mate. It was not a hard tag, they simply went head to head at some stoppages which happens in every game. Clarko never does hard tags. Which is obvious if you actually look at Shiels stats, he only had 2 tackles for the whole game. This is a bloke who averaged 9 tackles a game last year.

Anyway, why so touchy mate? What did I say that was such "bullshit"?
I agree it wasn't a hard tag, but I still think that it is unfair to argue that Merrett is somehow less of a player because he hasn't been hard tagged by opposition. I think the nature of his game means it is tough to try and stop him, so teams tag players like Zaharakis who will be damaging without close attention, but turn to water when the physicality is brought to them.
 

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Merrett finished with 37 disposals after being tagged by Shiels in the second half. You might want to actually watch him play before you spout bullshit.
So 11 possessions after half time. Was the tag the cause of the reduced impact in the second half.
 
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dick measuring contest at its finest. Who honestly gives a glory be that one is better than the other - they are all young stars of the comp and will probably be top 20 players for the next 10 years. You should all rejoice and accept the high fives
Unfortunately, intelligent posts like this aren't interesting enough for some people. You're 100% right though
 

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I agree it wasn't a hard tag, but I still think that it is unfair to argue that Merrett is somehow less of a player because he hasn't been hard tagged by opposition. I think the nature of his game means it is tough to try and stop him, so teams tag players like Zaharakis who will be damaging without close attention, but turn to water when the physicality is brought to them.
No mate, Merrett is good but he has not reached 'too good and there's no point in tagging him anyway' status. Very few reach that level.
 

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The problem is Zach Merrett hasn't proved that he can consistently beat a tag yet. In fact he wasn't even tagged last year, Zaharakis was the player the opposition chose to tag last year(Jacobs, Nelson, Taylor Hunt, Barlow, etc) which lets Merrett off the leash and inflates his stats. In comparison Cripps and Bontempelli are both the #1 tagged player for their teams. And have both shown to be able to consistently beat a tag. In fact Bontemepelli was being tagged back in 2015 (Bernie Vince, Jacobs, Weller, Greenwood), and Cripps was also tagged in 2015 by Bernie Vince and was BOG with 2 goals, 16 contested possessions and 8 clearances.

So until Merrett becomes damaging enough for opposition teams to choose to sacrifice a player to stop him. And then show that he is also good enough to beat said tag, he cannot yet be compared to Cripps and Bont yet (especially Bont).
Tagging is almost inconsequential in the modern game. It happens, sure, but its largely a remnant of less sophisticated defensive era.

Increasingly teams rely on their defensive structures to contain the influence of star players. Tagging a star player potentially undermines those structures. This is one of the reasons why the stars of the game seem to find the ball more frequently than they have in the past. For example, six players averaged more than 30 disposals per game last season (with two others, Merrett and Gaff, falling 3 disposals short) which was the highest number ever.

If we were having this discussion five years ago I'd be inclined to agree with you. But its quite plausible that Merrett and a whole bunch of star players will go through their careers and rarely see a tag. And it isn't because they aren't good enough to be tagged; nor is it because they are too good to be tagged; but because sacrificing a player just isn't very smart football.
 

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In comparison Cripps and Bontempelli are both the #1 tagged player for their teams.
He is? Who would bother tagging a guy who barely kicks the football and has almost zero impact on the outside? Going off of FanFooty I can only see one game last year where Cripps got a deliberate tag.
 
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It also isn't detrimental to spend time forward of the centre. That's where possessions can do the most damage. Most of the midfielders who rank very well are those who either spend time forward (such as Robbie Gray) or have the ability to impact the game heavily in the forward half (such as Ablett and Dangerfield).
But at the end of the day if you spend 100% of your time on the ground in the midfield, you'd score more points. It's why there's only 8 key forwards in the AFL Player Ratings Points top 100, even though football fan in the country would consider the proportion of key forwards in the league's top 100 to be closer to 10-15. Just because Bontempelli can point score from the forward line, doesn't mean he'd more likely score more points on average if he played Merrett or Cripps' proportional midfield minutes. For every opportunity to score goals from congestion in the foward line and gain massive points, there's 10 minutes the ball's up at the other end of the ground and midfielders are picking up points for contested possessions that don't actually achieve anything ball-movement wise. Resting forward, on team level, helps us win games and that makes him more valuable even without being measured in points.

There's also very valid debates about how the point system is "blind" how because in effect all it measures are things like possession contested/uncontested begin/middle of possession chain and location on the ground. It's poor for analysing a player's impact on wider ball movement, which is why defenders who are critical to ball movement but don't get a massive amount of metres gained or intercept possessions are not rated highly, because their contested possession rate is low. Consider this - what if a player who correctly chooses to switch the ball in defence because he sees an overlap runner on the fat side of the ground. Uncontested -> uncontested -> 0 metres gained -> 0 points gained for the correct decision. If they make the wrong decision to kick down the line to a pack and a teammate takes a mark, they might gain 0.5 or 1 point for that decision. This means players like Lee Spurr are rated 280th despite fufilling the full 40 game block, because he has a low contested possession rate and metres gained, are underrated.

And then it's equally true on the flipside, it means that those with high contested possession rates are valuable without considering the wider impact on ball movement. Cripps is the perfect example of that. I say his ball winning pre-clearance and tackling is good defensively because it prevents the other team from winning the ball. But given that Cripps doesn't effectively partake in good ball movement himeslf (unlike Merrett and Bontempelli) with his high clanger, and low metres gained stats, there's no evidence that his contested ball winning helps his team's ball movement even though AFL Player Ratings Points assumes it does.
 
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But at the end of the day if you spend 100% of your time on the ground in the midfield, you'd score more points. It's why there's only 8 key forwards in the AFL Player Ratings Points top 100, even though football fan in the country would consider the proportion of key forwards in the league's top 100 to be closer to 10-15. Just because Bontempelli can point score from the forward line, doesn't mean he'd more likely score more points on average if he played Merrett or Cripps' proportional midfield minutes. For every opportunity to score goals from congestion in the foward line and gain massive points, there's 10 minutes the ball's up at the other end of the ground and midfielders are picking up points for contested possessions that don't actually achieve anything ball-movement wise. Resting forward, on team level, helps us win games and that makes him more valuable even without being measured in points.

There's also very valid debates about how the point system is "blind" how because in effect all it measures are things like possession contested/uncontested begin/middle of possession chain and location on the ground. It's poor for analysing a player's impact on wider ball movement, which is why defenders who are critical to ball movement but don't get a massive amount of metres gained or intercept possessions are not rated highly, because their contested possession rate is low. Consider this - what if a player who correctly chooses to switch the ball in defence because he sees an overlap runner on the fat side of the ground. Uncontested -> uncontested -> 0 metres gained -> 0 points gained for the correct decision. If they make the wrong decision to kick down the line to a pack and a teammate takes a mark, they might gain 0.5 or 1 point for that decision. This means players like Lee Spurr are rated 280th despite fufilling the full 40 game block, because he has a low contested possession rate and metres gained, are underrated.

And then it's equally true on the flipside, it means that those with high contested possession rates are valuable without considering the wider impact on ball movement. Cripps is the perfect example of that. I say his ball winning pre-clearance and tackling is good defensively because it prevents the other team from winning the ball. But given that Cripps doesn't effectively partake in good ball movement himeslf (unlike Merrett and Bontempelli) with his high clanger, and low metres gained stats, there's no evidence that his contested ball winning helps his team's ball movement even though AFL Player Ratings Points assumes it does.
Couldnt have said it better myself.

And I defy anyone to say that they would take Crips or Merrett ahead of The Bont if it were a mini draft today. Bont is one of a kind and has had numerous occasions where he has stepped up and controlled games when we have been in trouble. He is not your 30+ accumulator but his influence extends far greater than his numbers.
 

calyam

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But at the end of the day if you spend 100% of your time on the ground in the midfield, you'd score more points. It's why there's only 8 key forwards in the AFL Player Ratings Points top 100, even though football fan in the country would consider the proportion of key forwards in the league's top 100 to be closer to 10-15. Just because Bontempelli can point score from the forward line, doesn't mean he'd more likely score more points on average if he played Merrett or Cripps' proportional midfield minutes. For every opportunity to score goals from congestion in the foward line and gain massive points, there's 10 minutes the ball's up at the other end of the ground and midfielders are picking up points for contested possessions that don't actually achieve anything ball-movement wise. Resting forward, on team level, helps us win games and that makes him more valuable even without being measured in points.

There's also very valid debates about how the point system is "blind" how because in effect all it measures are things like possession contested/uncontested begin/middle of possession chain and location on the ground. It's poor for analysing a player's impact on wider ball movement, which is why defenders who are critical to ball movement but don't get a massive amount of metres gained or intercept possessions are not rated highly, because their contested possession rate is low. Consider this - what if a player who correctly chooses to switch the ball in defence because he sees an overlap runner on the fat side of the ground. Uncontested -> uncontested -> 0 metres gained -> 0 points gained for the correct decision. If they make the wrong decision to kick down the line to a pack and a teammate takes a mark, they might gain 0.5 or 1 point for that decision. This means players like Lee Spurr are rated 280th despite fufilling the full 40 game block, because he has a low contested possession rate and metres gained, are underrated.

And then it's equally true on the flipside, it means that those with high contested possession rates are valuable without considering the wider impact on ball movement. Cripps is the perfect example of that. I say his ball winning pre-clearance and tackling is good defensively because it prevents the other team from winning the ball. But given that Cripps doesn't effectively partake in good ball movement himeslf (unlike Merrett and Bontempelli) with his high clanger, and low metres gained stats, there's no evidence that his contested ball winning helps his team's ball movement even though AFL Player Ratings Points assumes it does.
I would never state that the rankings are without flaw and it is important to understand their limitations. But they are also the most comprehensive and sophisticated measure of player production that we have and I think the debate is improved by drawing on some of their insight. I'd certainly prefer to use the rankings as evidence of how good Bontempelli or Merrett is rather than simply referring to disposal counts or Supercoach points.

The large sample size and sophistication of the measure ensures that you can't get to the very top without consistently playing exceptional football. So if Merrett or Cripps do crack the top 10 this year, which in the absence of injury is definitely possible, I can't see how anyone could argue that they aren't genuine top 10 talents. And if that does happen I also can't see how anyone could argue that the gap between them and Bontempelli hasn't narrowed.
 
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the tagging argument is a complete furphy and anyone who uses it doesn't understand the game in 2017.

There are virtually NO hard tags now. None. The reason is that if you sacrifice a player to do NOTHING other than follow someone and try to nullify him you end up with a missing link in your structure - you lose the ability to outnumber the opposition in far too many situations as a result.

Fact of the matter is, Merrett is one of the most damaging and best users of the ball in the game, full stop. Just watch him next time you get the chance, watch the way he delivers the ball by foot. It's absurd.

This in no way puts down the other guys, both are awesome players too.
 
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Fact of the matter is, Merrett is one of the most damaging and best users of the ball in the game, full stop. Just watch him next time you get the chance, watch the way he delivers the ball by foot. It's absurd.
"Merrett isn't damaging with the ball"

 
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