Opinion Cripps, Parker and Davies - your time is nigh

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Hmmm. Not sure if this assessment is as objective as you make it appear. Since Cripps has been list manager in 2012, we have recruited the following players:

2012 - Oliie Wines, who became a Brownlow medalist. Missed out on Nick Vlastuin, Brodie Grundy. Wines isn't a flanker.

2013 - gave up our first round draft pick to get Jarman Impey and Jared Polec. Two flankers, yes, but the only key position talent in that draft was Tom Boyd and Cam McCarthy - both of which aren't going to help us now, are they? Went with Mitchell Harvey after Tom Barrass and Aliir Aliir were selected the two picks before ours. The only player we had access to but didn't pick that is still playing and would help ATM was Ben Brown - and that's a hindsight selection.

2014 - gave up our first and second round picks for Patrick Ryder - not a flanker. Recruited Dougal Howard, Logan Austin, Jesse Palmer and Billy Frampton - one flanker, two key position players and a ruck. Didn't miss out on any players available to us.

2015 - gave up our first and future second round pick for Charlie Dixon - not a flanker. Brought in Johnson and Bonner - missed out on Bailey Williams and Jordan Dawson - both also flankers.

2016 - traded our 2017 first round pick to get Todd Marshall - not a flanker + Sam-Powell-Pepper, Joe Atley and Willem Drew - all genuine mids. Missed out on Tim English, Esava Ratugolea and Elliot Himmelberg - big whoop.

2017 - drafted Sam Hayes - not a flanker - alongside Kane Farrell, Jake Patmore, Joel Garner and Dom Barry. No key position players or rucks went after Hayes.

2018 - drafted Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma. Hindsight says that perhaps Rozee over Ben King was a mistake, and I'm pretty sure that if Bailey Smith wasn't a sook we would have picked him over Rozee...but other than that, no other key position players or genuine mids were on the table at our selections.

2019 - brought in Bergman (flanker at the moment, should turn into a genuine mid), Georgiades (not a flanker), Williams (flanker) and Mead (not a flanker). Trade out Howard and Ryder.

2020 - drafted Lachie Jones with Academy selection. No key position players available worth the pick anyway. Get Lord - not a flanker - regardless.

2021 - trade out Ladhams, bring in Sinn, Jackson and Visentini (not a flanker)

It's all well and good to say the recruiting team doesn't value key position players, but the reality is that when they've been available to us we've been more than willing to give up decent draft picks to get them. If you want the collateral to get a player like Luke Jackson you need to finish down the bottom of the ladder.
 
Bit rough on Sinn. The kid has barely played a game in 2 years and when he did it was against other kids.

It's not normal for first year draftees to play senior afl football in their first year anyway.

Just because they played half back in the u/18's doesn't mean they'll spend their AFL careers playing there.

What quality big men could we have taken with our first round picks in the last drafts anyway? There's one obvious one...Ben King instead of Rozee. In hindsight we stuffed that one, however rozee is still very young and may still end up being a star.

We took georgiadis in 2019 first round.

There's a fine line between being top 2 or bottom 2.

I think our under 25's are very good. Not saying it's perfect though.

I think a quality new coach will help a lot.
 

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Reckon Rozee over King was purely based on the Luko factor. Club arrogantly thought he would love the chance to come home and play with his best mate after his first contract finished.
 
TazD said:
Reckon Rozee over King was purely based on the Luko factor. Club arrogantly thought he would love the chance to come home and play with his best mate after his first contract finished.
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Also goes the other way. Probably equally as scared that King would have pulled up stumps and tried to get back to Vic or play with his brother.

I would have backed our culture in to keep him, but after this year I'm sure there may be a few players who want out
 
Janus said:
Hmmm. Not sure if this assessment is as objective as you make it appear. Since Cripps has been list manager in 2012, we have recruited the following players:

2012 - Oliie Wines, who became a Brownlow medalist. Missed out on Nick Vlastuin, Brodie Grundy. Wines isn't a flanker.

2013 - gave up our first round draft pick to get Jarman Impey and Jared Polec. Two flankers, yes, but the only key position talent in that draft was Tom Boyd and Cam McCarthy - both of which aren't going to help us now, are they? Went with Mitchell Harvey after Tom Barrass and Aliir Aliir were selected the two picks before ours. The only player we had access to but didn't pick that is still playing and would help ATM was Ben Brown - and that's a hindsight selection.

2014 - gave up our first and second round picks for Patrick Ryder - not a flanker. Recruited Dougal Howard, Logan Austin, Jesse Palmer and Billy Frampton - one flanker, two key position players and a ruck. Didn't miss out on any players available to us.

2015 - gave up our first and future second round pick for Charlie Dixon - not a flanker. Brought in Johnson and Bonner - missed out on Bailey Williams and Jordan Dawson - both also flankers.

2016 - traded our 2017 first round pick to get Todd Marshall - not a flanker + Sam-Powell-Pepper, Joe Atley and Willem Drew - all genuine mids. Missed out on Tim English, Esava Ratugolea and Elliot Himmelberg - big whoop.

2017 - drafted Sam Hayes - not a flanker - alongside Kane Farrell, Jake Patmore, Joel Garner and Dom Barry. No key position players or rucks went after Hayes.

2018 - drafted Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma. Hindsight says that perhaps Rozee over Ben King was a mistake, and I'm pretty sure that if Bailey Smith wasn't a sook we would have picked him over Rozee...but other than that, no other key position players or genuine mids were on the table at our selections.

2019 - brought in Bergman (flanker at the moment, should turn into a genuine mid), Georgiades (not a flanker), Williams (flanker) and Mead (not a flanker). Trade out Howard and Ryder.

2020 - drafted Lachie Jones with Academy selection. No key position players available worth the pick anyway. Get Lord - not a flanker - regardless.

2021 - trade out Ladhams, bring in Sinn, Jackson and Visentini (not a flanker)

It's all well and good to say the recruiting team doesn't value key position players, but the reality is that when they've been available to us we've been more than willing to give up decent draft picks to get them. If you want the collateral to get a player like Luke Jackson you need to finish down the bottom of the ladder.
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Thank you for this, I felt this was the case intuitively but didn't have the energy to actually put this list together.

The other important thing is to consider how often especially those players that have come in 2015 and later (after Richardson and Walsh were gone) have gone backwards in a way that they wouldn't have if we had competent coaching.

Its not up to the list managers to play Dixon as a ruck for a year, then to tell him to stop being a forward at all and just wrestle with someone and try to hit the ball on to the ground. Its not up to the list managers to get guys like Rozee, Finlayson, MG and Pep to just play their natural games that they were brilliant at when the joined and instead have them going backwards fast. Its not up to the list managers to get Ken to actually play talls that aren't named Todd - that list of tall blokes that just were just "never ready" (Eddy, Butcher, Frampton, Hayes, etc) is not just a list of wasted careers, but its been a waste of resources and list spots.

If you give a head coach 1 ruck, 3 flankers, 3 forwards and 3 midfielders... and that coach turns 2 of the forwards in to flankers, plays 2 of the mids in forward pockets, doesnt play the tallest forward or the ruck because they "aren't ready", and plays all the flankers in their natural positions, things are gonna look like they do.
 
Honestly, I doubt King does any better than Mitch in the current set up.
We really lack tall, one on one key defenders which is where our drafting has been poor.
 
Chizza12 said:
Don't disagree but the Premiership team traded for May, Lever & Brown they didn't draft them.
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And they traded for them because they already had built the nucleus of a premiership winning midfield around Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, Brayshaw and Viney that they had drafted with picks under 10 (Melbourne matched our bid at 7 for Viney with a second round pick, which wouldn't have happened under the current bidding system).

Melbourne are successful because they've been s**t for so long. The same with Brisbane, who piled up top picks to get Rayner and McCluggage and then traded top picks for Neale and Cameron. Carlton is going down the same path - people think that when they finally get it together it must be because they are awesome.

Port has been trying to game the system by attacking certain drafts over others. That only gets you so far, because draft picks are literally the spending money the AFL gives you for players every year.

EskimoPAFC said:
In a choice between Rozee and King, I pick Smith all day and twice on Sundays. And no, I don't care what he said about playing outside of Victoria pre-draft.
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Imagine already having the likes of Bontempelli, Liberatore, Macrae et al and then having the second best mid in the draft scam his way to your club.

And then the Dogs fall into the Treloar trade when Collingwood was up against the salary cap.

Unbelievable.
 
That’s a solid run down of 2013 to now Janus. It does raise the question of how are we developing and then playing these players? Are we getting the right player for the right role? If SPP is recruited as a crash and bash inside midfielder, why is he playing as a half forward flanker?

There are some real sliding door moments. What if we take Ben Brown over Harvey? We needed a ready made ruck and some forward support for Schulz. Does 2014 pan out differently? Do we need to chase Ryder or Dixon?

Anyway, a glaring deficiency has been the middle age bracket. The support around wines, Amon, DBJ. The guys who can take over from Boak and support Rozee, butters, etc.
We definitely also have a deficiency right now in inside midfielders. Dunstan is playing the twos at the demons and Hewitt is killing it for Carlton. Either or both would be a huge help and are straight upgrades on Mayes or Dumont.
 

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RussellEbertHandball said:
You can't say that. These things take time to get assessed properly.

I would rank the Rockliff, Motlop and Watts offseason as a bust.
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2017 post-season is long enough ago to assess now I think, with 2 of those two having retired. We start with them three then.
Rockliff statistically declined from his time at Brisbane, but it was a pretty bare cabinet at that team, so to move to Port and dip to averaging 20, 28 and 22 disposals in his 3 proper seasons here isn't a bad result. When we aim to build a winning team it just so happens that players coming from weaker teams don't have to be the star and will play their role. Maybe he was on too much money, but that's what you have to do to get free agents to come to your club especially when Carlton put forward an offer.

Watts only had one proper season, and having a career ending injury in his second game of his second season with us isn't necessarily the fault of list management, so when we look at his sole full-ish season of 2018, there's 18 goals in 19 games. Down from 38 and 22 in his final 2 seasons at Melbourne. No Hogan in that last season of 2017 either so from 22 goals as the sole key forward to 18 as a backup to Dixon is an upgrade with that context in mind. Sure it sucks that he only got one year with us but what can you do about the injury? The decision to pick him up was smart at the time and made me think we would contend for a flag with Dixon-Watts-Marshall in the forward line and sure enough West Coast win the flag with a triple key forward set up so my thinking was correct. $500k a year roughly (Melbourne paying about 15% too) but when we paid him out after 2020 we didn't have to pay that full amount so there's some consolation if you weren't happy with him.

Motlop now, we s**t on him a lot and I'm guilty of it, but his first year with us was his 10th year and it's currently his 14th year. We are far more dysfunctional than the Geelong sides he was a part of and so he isn't in the same system as Geelong up forward, we were very defensive in his first years with us and as such he's averaged 11 goals a year for the 4 years before us. We have a dependence on one forward at a time so it's bound to happen. This is none of list management's fault and even still, Adelaide supposedly offered 600k and we got him for unders so that's something list management actually did regarding him and to me that sounds like a win there. Has been best 22 for a good chunk of his time here as well.

On top of that too, Jackson Trengove out to WB as a RFA, but bringing in Jack Trengove and Trent McKenzie as DFA's? Jack was brought in for one year and played 3 games which was a nice feel good story and McKenzie has been a mainstay in the backline once he broke into the 22, was huge in 2020 especially, so there's that too.

After a 5th place finish and shock exit in the EF we'd be prepping to move to the next level and they were all pieces to polish what was already a decent side and move to the next level. It didn't pan out that way but not because of list management, because of the fault of the coaching staff. Even still I go on. Those first three are the big ones that people point to from 2017 but even our trades from that year were mostly pretty good.

OUT: Jarman Impey and pick 67, IN: pick 31, pick 61 and Hawthorn's future fourth.
Not awesome, but Impey desperately wanted out and with a hand behind our back we got the best deal we could.
OUT: Brendon Ah Chee and hawthorn's future fourth, IN: West Coast's future third
Much of a muchness, Ah Chee was never gonna develop great (and didn't at West Coast either) so no loss there at all.
OUT: Aaron Young, IN Adelaide's future fourth (from GC)
Better than delisting him for nothing, no big loss for us and wouldn't have gotten games here so that's the best outcome we could have gotten.
OUT: Logan Austin and our future fourth, IN: St Kilda's future third
Austin was never gonna get games here so better than delisting for nothing, and the pick ends up an upgrade for us.
OUT: Matthew Lobbe, IN: pick 95
Carlton pick up the final two years of Lobbe's 500-600k/year that was a mistake (signed right as Davies came in, so I'm assuming that was already planned before he was there), yeah we got a nothing pick but the contract is off our hands so that's a win.
OUT: Pick 34 and Adelaide's future fourth, IN: St Kilda's future second, pick 59 and pick 63
Pick swap, whatever, but I think the future second helped us get Rozee indirectly (could be wrong but I think I'm right) which was the plan initially so W
OUT: two future thirds, IN: pick 46, North's future third
Pick 46 was Hayes who is yet to debut but that's because of Ken's allergy to bringing a new ruck into the side. Idk.

Draft now, we were looking to contend in 2018 so only late picks but Sam Hayes at 47, Kane Farrell at 51, Jake Patmore at 58, Joel Garner at 60, Dom Barry at 61. Those last 3 are long gone (as expected for late 50s-early 60s picks) but Hayes not debuting is a Ken issue and Farrell has looked nice for the most part when he's been in the side. Exceeds expectations for a pick 51. Lindsay Thomas as a nice story in the rookie draft, does his part as a mentor at the Maggies and gets his little homecoming send-off, plus knocking out a Selwood is always a nice footnote on the legacy, (shame it wasn't Joel LOL).

To me this doesn't come off as a bust though. If anything has been a bust it certainly wasn't the fault of list management, it's been improper coaching since 2015, predating even this off-season. But to write these moves off as a bust is just lazy and inaccurate. Worst case on those trades is a breakeven and the "failures" of FAs would be very overstated. On the list of problems, list management is far from the top and has been pretty bloody good aside from the last offseason. Give them their credit please.
 
Janus said:
Hmmm. Not sure if this assessment is as objective as you make it appear. Since Cripps has been list manager in 2012, we have recruited the following players:

2012 - Oliie Wines, who became a Brownlow medalist. Missed out on Nick Vlastuin, Brodie Grundy. Wines isn't a flanker.

2013 - gave up our first round draft pick to get Jarman Impey and Jared Polec. Two flankers, yes, but the only key position talent in that draft was Tom Boyd and Cam McCarthy - both of which aren't going to help us now, are they? Went with Mitchell Harvey after Tom Barrass and Aliir Aliir were selected the two picks before ours. The only player we had access to but didn't pick that is still playing and would help ATM was Ben Brown - and that's a hindsight selection.

2014 - gave up our first and second round picks for Patrick Ryder - not a flanker. Recruited Dougal Howard, Logan Austin, Jesse Palmer and Billy Frampton - one flanker, two key position players and a ruck. Didn't miss out on any players available to us.

2015 - gave up our first and future second round pick for Charlie Dixon - not a flanker. Brought in Johnson and Bonner - missed out on Bailey Williams and Jordan Dawson - both also flankers.

2016 - traded our 2017 first round pick to get Todd Marshall - not a flanker + Sam-Powell-Pepper, Joe Atley and Willem Drew - all genuine mids. Missed out on Tim English, Esava Ratugolea and Elliot Himmelberg - big whoop.

2017 - drafted Sam Hayes - not a flanker - alongside Kane Farrell, Jake Patmore, Joel Garner and Dom Barry. No key position players or rucks went after Hayes.

2018 - drafted Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma. Hindsight says that perhaps Rozee over Ben King was a mistake, and I'm pretty sure that if Bailey Smith wasn't a sook we would have picked him over Rozee...but other than that, no other key position players or genuine mids were on the table at our selections.

2019 - brought in Bergman (flanker at the moment, should turn into a genuine mid), Georgiades (not a flanker), Williams (flanker) and Mead (not a flanker). Trade out Howard and Ryder.

2020 - drafted Lachie Jones with Academy selection. No key position players available worth the pick anyway. Get Lord - not a flanker - regardless.

2021 - trade out Ladhams, bring in Sinn, Jackson and Visentini (not a flanker)

It's all well and good to say the recruiting team doesn't value key position players, but the reality is that when they've been available to us we've been more than willing to give up decent draft picks to get them. If you want the collateral to get a player like Luke Jackson you need to finish down the bottom of the ladder.
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I have no problems with our 2014 and 2015 drafts having few picks because the picks we traded for Ryder and Dixon, they delivered and were all Australian players. Ryder because of the lost CAS suspension year is only marginally better than breakeven, but Dixon was a huge win. But what is the missing trade?? An All Oz KPD.

So we were left with average picks those years and that's what we ended up drafting, average players.

Marshall unfortunately has turned out to be a tall not a KFP, but trading out for him/SPP to have 2 first round picks, in 2016 and none in 2017, we lucked out we got Hayes. Parker didn't want a ruckman, he has said they weren't looking for one, but the Richmond flag / Nankervis effect meant Hayes slid from a pick 15-20 type to pick 47. So he ended up being best available at our pick 47.

We don't have mindset to go draft a quality KPD, which we have been screaming out for years.

In 2017 did we consider Noah Balta who is basically an Alex Rance clone?? We had pick 31 and we traded that out for flakey Jack Watts. Did we consider Balta at all and trying to move 31 up the ladder to be in the ballpark to pick Balta? History suggests not a chance. Richmond got him with pick 25.

We lucked out getting Aliir for not much, he plays well within Hinkley's system, but he isn't a one on one key defender, and if you have a smart coach like Beveridge, he gets exposed in the pressure of a big final.

Our KPD's have been fighting in the wrong weight division for years, and we have taken a she'll be right attitude.

In 2009 when Parker was 2IC to Blair Hartley, think I wrote Parker took over at end of 2010, but it in fact was at end of rookie draft in December 2009 that Hartley left, we had the chance with picks 8 and 9 to take Butcher and Talia, 2KPP's to bookend the team. But we didn't have the mindset then, and we still don't have it now. We went with Moore at 9 when he would have still been there at 16 and we would have missed out on Pittard.

The history books say we haven't changed our mindset.
 
Very harsh on Sinn, I think he has an enormous amount of potential for someone who has barely kicked a footy for 2 seasons.

The Ladhams trade however, just baffles me, especially when the club has serious internal concerns about Hayes aerobic capacity.

Picking Rozee at 5 when Ben King was still available now looks a monumental blunder. The kid is flaky & unfortunately a massive bust.

If a club goes to water on the back of 2 key players missing, then the List Management Team & Senior coach have made some serious mistakes.
 
Janus said:
It's all well and good to say the recruiting team doesn't value key position players, but the reality is that when they've been available to us we've been more than willing to give up decent draft picks to get them. If you want the collateral to get a player like Luke Jackson you need to finish down the bottom of the ladder.
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There's an inherent passivity to the phrase "when they've been available to us". We do not need to wait for established talls to become available to us. It is possible to draft fresh talls. You rightly point out that we haven't been allocated the high picks needed to go fishing for the best talls, but we have carried both established players and other picks that could have been traded directly or packaged for high(er) picks. The thing a counterparty is doing everytime we ship picks for an established player.

We also need to be careful talking about years like 2014. Yes, we drafted three talls, but the highest was Dougal Howard, who we took at the end of the third round, and there was barely a full round's worth of selections made after him. They're picks made way out into speculative territory, and we missed Harris Andrews, Zaine Cordy, and Jeremy Finlayson. Say what you will about the latter two, but they've each carved out better careers than Austin, Palmer, and Frampton combined.
 
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Saltiga said:
Bit rough on Sinn. The kid has barely played a game in 2 years and when he did it was against other kids.

It's not normal for first year draftees to play senior afl football in their first year anyway.

Just because they played half back in the u/18's doesn't mean they'll spend their AFL careers playing there.
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Not bagging Sinn by any means but where was the risk assessment on Sinn before using a precious first round draft pick on a player that has hardly played? Surely you would use your first round pick on a player that has had an outstanding season prior in a feeder league?
 
Sorry think this is an over reaction to 0 after 4.
the draft strategy has been self evident and passes the litmus test.
have no problems with a dh policy out the door.
dixon replacement aint easy
maybe this is the week for hayes which a bit hinges on.
like the thread as it is away from the rabid dog stuff
at roxby for the arid recovery critter evening
 
ibd77 said:
Not bagging Sinn by any means but where was the risk assessment on Sinn before using a precious first round draft pick on a player that has hardly played? Surely you would use your first round pick on a player that has had an outstanding season prior in a feeder league?
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Like who? The majority of draftees come from the Victorian U/18 league.

He's 18 years old 4 weeks into his first season!
 
Saltiga said:
Like who? The majority of draftees come from the Victorian U/18 league.

He's 18 years old 4 weeks into his first season!
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Name me one player from last year's draft taken after pick 12 that is currently playing in the first 4 games.
 
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