Crowd noise, Majority crowds, home crowds and umpiring decisions

D-N-R

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This is a proven world wide phenomenon.

What have all the other sports done about it? Nothing. All you can do is ensure teams have equal home and away games.

According to the freakanomics article the bias is involuntary - something the Umpires don't consciously do. And the effect is slight, depending on the sport.

Not sure why the op is so indignant that the AFL hasn't addressed this issue. I can't recall the EPL addressing it or any other sport.
 

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Kwality

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This is a proven world wide phenomenon.

What have all the other sports done about it? Nothing. All you can do is ensure teams have equal home and away games.

According to the freakanomics article the bias is involuntary - something the Umpires don't consciously do. And the effect is slight, depending on the sport.

Not sure why the op is so indignant that the AFL hasn't addressed this issue. I can't recall the EPL addressing it or any other sport.
Could there be more of an advantage than GF day?

Should GFs won by teams receiving an unearned/gifted home town advantage be asterisked, a div 2 win effect? :cool:
 

Ron The Bear

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The Richmond gameplan has revolved around relentless pressure on the opposition ball-carrier. Very easy to give away frees when you play like that. Probably something that Hardwick was happy to wear if it meant your opponents were coughing up the footy and getting killed on the turnovers.

The Tigers had very low possession totals for a team that won so often, meaning they probably weren't infringed against with the same regularity as a high possession team that made the ball & not tackling their main objective.

Richmond have also played with an undersized bullocking ruckman who basically tries nullify his taller opponents in the hitouts and beat them areound the ground - Nank gave away more frees than anyone in 2018
Richmond is only mid-table (9th) for tackles laid in the last three years.

It's interesting to compare the free kick differential for Dustin Martin, who spends plenty of time forward, to e.g. Dangerfield or Cripps.
 

WillHayward

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Behold... the Free Kick Differential table

Because the AFL has limited venues - I think the analysis requires deeper digging.

I would say that the 'crowd noise' factor only has an impact in games where it is say >70% of one team's crowd and where the crowd number is over 30,000.
This would be all the Eagles, Crows and Geelong home games.
All other games - the 'noise factor' would not be there.
So it wont be obvious in the overall figures above.

All I am suggesting is Umpires are maybe 'coached' or reminded at breaks in games where there is a huge crowd and a huge crowd differential.
 

WillHayward

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Could there be more of an advantage than GF day?

Should GFs won by teams receiving an unearned/gifted home town advantage be asterisked, a div 2 win effect? :cool:
GFs are a relatively neutral audience.

Maybe 40% Melbourne team. 20% away team. 40% neutrals there for the spectacle/event.
 

Scotland

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GFs are a relatively neutral audience.

Maybe 40% Melbourne team. 20% away team. 40% neutrals there for the spectacle/event.
You could play the GF anywhere and that would be the case.

Should we move the GF? You can bet your bollocks to a barn dance if they had a rotating GF venue like the super bowl teams would consider playing WC or Freo in Perth a disadvantage.
 

Kwality

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GFs are a relatively neutral audience.

Maybe 40% Melbourne team. 20% away team. 40% neutrals there for the spectacle/event.
Dont agree.
MCC 25k crowd favours the Vic club
AFL Members 16k (?) favours the Vic club
plus
competing clubs receive the same ticket allocation.
 

BartBart

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And last four seasons to zoom in on recent record... (using the unchecked figures in the old table)

multi-season-to-rd15-2019-fk.jpg
 
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BartBart

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To quote Q.Lynch... "not any more".
Ditto for WCE.

WB & Coll get the umpire love now.
And Rich, GWS, Port & Syd the rough end of the stick.

I reckon seasons of +-22 frees is pretty insignificant as that is really averaging 1 a game either way.

It is the outliers that stand out a bit more.
(The darker greens/reds)
Which pretty much means the top 4 and bottom 4 who have had bad/good runs of it consistently.
 
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Back One Out

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"not any more".
Well, never really.

Hawthorn was never in the Umpire's Top 5 even during their most successful period (from 2011 to 2015)

Frees For: 10th, 7th, 10th, 13th, 12th

F/A Diff : 15th , 7th , 8th , 7th , 6th
 
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BartBart

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Well, never really.

Hawthorn was never in the Umpire's Top 5 even during their most successful period (from 2011 to 2015)

Frees For: 10th, 7th, 10th, 13th, 12th

F/A Diff : 15th , 7th , 8th , 7th , 6th

Although there were a few games in one or two seasons that were decided in Hawthorn's favour with late free kicks in that period.
 

Back One Out

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Although there were a few games in one or two seasons that were decided in Hawthorn's favour with late free kicks in that period.
No. Not one game (2011-2015) was decided in Hawthorn's favour from a late free kick. Not one. You can look it up. We did lose a couple of close ones when umpires ignored possible Hawthorn frees and called 'play on'. (an unrewarded Cyril Rioli tackle vs Geelong springs to mind)

The games which people whinged about the most were the Preliminary Finals in 2012, 2014 and 2015 vs (Adelaide, Port and Freo). But that was just sour grapes - typical bitching from losing fans about a couple of frees against them during the game and ignoring the lucky unwarranted frees they received. This type of whining is always amplified during the finals. You never hear the winners whinging about the shiit decisions which they copped because they're too busy celebrating and looking ahead to their next match.


You're actually thinking of 2016 when Hawthorn narrowly beat the Saints and Crows in successive weeks early in the season. That's when #freekickhawthorn first reared it's head on social media. Basically, people were sick of Hawthorn winning Grand Finals and the general barracking against our team reached epic proportions.

It wasn't a free kick vs St Kilda. It was an inexperienced umpire who disallowed a Saints mark from their kickout which resulted in a lucky Hawthorn goal early in the last quarter. The media trolls ran with the "Poor Saints Robbed" headlines, but it was drawing a long bow. Umpiring was bad for both teams that day and Paddy McCartin had a kick from 40m to win the game, but he missed

The following Friday night, Puopolo kicked a bag of 6 vs Adelaide, including the winning goal from a late free kick, courtesy of Brodie Smith falling into his back. Poppy fell forwards like any other player would in that situation, but it was a clear infringement. Free kick every day of the week. Didn't stop everyone from bitching about it though.
 
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BartBart

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No. Not one game (2011-2015) was decided in Hawthorn's favour from a late free kick. Not one. You can look it up. We did lose a couple of close ones when umpires ignored possible Hawthorn frees and called 'play on'. (an unrewarded Cyril Rioli tackle vs Geelong springs to mind)

The games which people whinged about the most were the Preliminary Finals in 2012, 2014 and 2015 vs (Adelaide, Port and Freo). But that was just sour grapes - typical bitching from losing fans about a couple of frees against them during the game and ignoring the lucky unwarranted frees they received. This type of whining is always amplified during the finals. You never hear the winners whinging about the shiit decisions which they copped because they're too busy celebrating and looking ahead to their next match.


You're actually thinking of 2016 when Hawthorn narrowly beat the Saints and Crows in successive weeks early in the season. That's when #freekickhawthorn first reared it's head on social media. Basically, people were sick of Hawthorn winning Grand Finals and the general barracking against our team reached epic proportions.

It wasn't a free kick vs St Kilda. It was an inexperienced umpire who disallowed a Saints mark from their kickout which resulted in a lucky Hawthorn goal early in the last quarter. The media trolls ran with the "Poor Saints Robbed" headlines, but it was drawing a long bow. Umpiring was bad for both teams that day and Paddy McCartin had a kick from 40m to win the game, but he missed

The following Friday night, Puopolo kicked a bag of 6 vs Adelaide, including the winning goal from a late free kick, courtesy of Brodie Smith falling into his back. Poppy fell forwards like any other player would in that situation, but it was a clear infringement. Free kick every day of the week. Didn't stop everyone from bitching about it though.
From memory the complaints were linked to a particular umpire being involved.
 

Duckimus Prime

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No. Not one game (2011-2015) was decided in Hawthorn's favour from a late free kick. Not one. You can look it up. We did lose a couple of close ones when umpires ignored possible Hawthorn frees and called 'play on'. (an unrewarded Cyril Rioli tackle vs Geelong springs to mind)
Says the deluded Hawk fan. And #freekickhawthorn actually came from a run of home and away games in 2015 where free kicks given in Hawthorn's favour or not called against them resulted in Hawthorn wins.
 

SunshineTiger

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I dont think going back to the old VFL is the answer...

I also think what you you desribed above also perfectly describes Geelong's situation - who last time I looked were Victorian...
Nah they only average 28000 at the velodrome
 

doppleganger

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Because the AFL has limited venues - I think the analysis requires deeper digging.

I would say that the 'crowd noise' factor only has an impact in games where it is say >70% of one team's crowd and where the crowd number is over 30,000.
This would be all the Eagles, Crows and Geelong home games.
All other games - the 'noise factor' would not be there.
So it wont be obvious in the overall figures above.

All I am suggesting is Umpires are maybe 'coached' or reminded at breaks in games where there is a huge crowd and a huge crowd differential.
Hooooorray
A non-Melbourne fan who actually gets it!!

In most sporting events, a ‘home’ ground is a unique (or at worst shared stadium with one other club) that for each game is basically 95% filled with ‘home’ supporters.

That creates the special atmosphere.

An EPL game, the ‘away’ fans get a tiny corner of the ground to sit in. At USA sporting events, they are all basically 95% for the ‘home’ team.

Resultantly, the figures show the home team gets an edge in penalties awarded, free throws...those judgement calls where bias can come in.

In AFL world, the non-Melbourne clubs enjoy this same standard ‘home’ game situation.

Melbourne clubs don’t have this. A team like Collingwood may play 17 games in Melbourne, but 12-14 of those 17 are against other teams who also play ‘home’ games in Melbourne.

In those situations you don’t get 95% support to one club, they are random mixes floating between 35-65 spread depending on teams. Yes Pies the team that have more fans. In those instances both fans make enough noise depending on game situation.

Then you get the 3 or 4 games where Collingwood is the ‘home’ team to a non-vic club, and so should be then getting the 95% support benefit. They do, but a 40K crowd in a stadium doesn’t create the same atmosphere as a 40K crowd in a 45K stadium!! The noise and intimidation of 25K feral Pie fans back at VicPark was a bigger influence than 40K at a more than half empty G.

But then you get the ‘home’ game against a non-vic team at Marvel that the Pies have every year. Supposedly this is still the same ‘home advantage’ despite Collingwood often actually playing at Marvel less than their opponents!! Which to me indicates that non-vic fans don’t think ground familiarity is a factor in the ‘home advantage’.

And yes then it gets back to the GF

It is again not a 95% crowd in one teams favour, would be like FA Cup Final between a London team and a club from North England...the London based club will have a larger share of the corporate and random seats, but both teams get the 25K proper support. And only a nuffie claims that London teams have some huge advantage in FA Cup finals.
 

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