Women's Footy Crows AFLW Season 2021 - “2nd comes right after 1st”

[Caputo]

Brisbane vs Collingwood game moved to Victoria.
So rd 9 will be the first game interstate all season for Collingwood.

Or will it be. It could be moved to Melb

 

[Firewalker]

We've got too many unskilled cross code players in our team, Varnhagen, Sedunary, Ragcic etc. I break into a sweat when the ball goes into our back line, too many fumblers and poor ball users. Hatchard has been reading too much of her own press and thinks she's Dusty Martin, needs to learn to distribute the ball before she gets tackled. Poor delivery into our forward line doesn't help but not much teamwork and a lack of work rate. Melbourne deserved their win, they displayed better skills, teamwork and game plan.

Building on this quote from the Melbourne game thread, the skills in this side have been woeful for 2 straight seasons, no one seems to take responsibility for it or even acknowledge it should be even a concern in a women’s football team.

Clarke has certainly not bothered too much about it focusing just really on the process of; win contest -> surge -> get it forward -> lockdown in forward 50 -> build a wall. All well and good against the weaker physically or talent wise midfield’s but as soon as they’ve been matched by Freo’s midfield or beaten by Melbourne’s midfield at the contest it all breaks down rather easily.

Not blaming Clarke as he’s working with what he’s got - 3 total ball winning mids who are used to dominating, they usually have 25-30% of the teams total possessions and you can argue it’s probably the only reason they win games at times but the faults in their game are also starting to stack up like the amount of times Hatchard and Marinoff refuse to distribute with their hands to teammates around contests and get caught out and what happened last night just shows the worry if it’s not on those 3s terms all those players around them who are untested in some ways have to step up or use other methods of play and they’ve just been proved lacking both last year and this year.

What Clarke can be blamed for or more so the assistants is the lack of development of not only those in the team but those out of the team, there’s 4 players that have left the team from the 2019 premiership side and since that 2019 flag I can name 3 players outside of the big 5 that’ve actually improved their game a bit in 2 years and that’s Mules, Jones and Gore but that’s it.

Also of a concern is I don’t know where the improvement comes from I really don’t have any faith in the development of draftees or the recruitment choices, in the past 2 seasons these are the players added still on the list;

McKinnon - can’t get a game
Allen - played out of position but solid
Gould - in and out, cross-over athlete skill issues
Biddell - can’t make the leap from SANFL level
Newman - played out of position/can’t get a game
Whiteley - poor
Sedunary - poor
Munyard - in and out
Charlton - will be good
Martin - good
Woodland - hot and cold

The McKinnon and Newman ones annoy me most these players were absolute bonafide star juniors and have be muddled around with and never really been given a go. It’s no surprise Charlton looks the only high hope and she’s the only 18 year old drafteee out of the lot that has been played in position and given a run of games.

 

[cmndstab]

So, with one round left to go in the season we have secured a spot in the finals. Good!

We're sitting third on percentage, with Brisbane and Collingwood each one win ahead of us. However, Brisbane have to face Melbourne who just beat us and Freo... and Collingwood are facing us.

Our percentage is very similar to both Brisbane and Collingwood, so a good win next week means top spot is a real possibility. In fact, if the chips fall our way, we can go all the way to the flag without having to leave Adelaide again. A loss means we run the risk of losing a home final altogether.

Our percentage against Collingwood is actually quite interesting. Even though they're 6.3% higher than us, they have both scored and conceded significantly fewer points than us this year (345-159 for Collingwood, 415-197 for us). That means that a close loss affects their percentage more than it does ours. The upshot of all that is that if we win by at least four points, we are guaranteed to overtake them on the ladder. If it's a three point victory we need at least 10 points. For a two point victory we need at least 26 points. For a one point victory, we need at least at least 43 points.

There are various scenarios depending on what happens in other matches, but fortunately they will all take place before our match so we'll know what the possibilities are going in.

If we win by enough to overtake Collingwood: we will take a top two spot unless Brisbane wins, and Freo wins comfortably.

If we lose to Collingwood: We still finish top four as long as either Melbourne loses, or Freo loses to North (but not by too much!)

Any finish from 1st place all the way down to 6th place is a possibility, but by the time next Sunday rolls around all the other important matches will have already happened, so we'll know what we need to do!

 

[cmndstab]

Assuming no injuries from the weekend, we now officially have an injury-free side, with Cox having made her return in the SANFLW in on the weekend.

Good position to be in going into the finals!

Edit: Whoops - forgot Nikki Gore.

 

[ams4crows]

If Bowers suspension is upheld who becomes the favourite for the MVP medal for the year?

 

[cmndstab]

If Bowers suspension is upheld who becomes the favourite for the MVP medal for the year?

Here's the top ten on the coaches votes:

57	Kiara Bowers	FRE
49	Brittany Bonnici	COLL
49	Jasmine Garner	NMFC
46	Brianna Davey	COLL
43	Ellie Blackburn	WB
42	Tyla Hanks	MELB
41	Alyce Parker	GWS
39	Monique Conti	RICH
35	Erin Phillips	ADEL
32	Anne Hatchard	ADEL

 

[Firewalker]

Assuming no injuries from the weekend, we now officially have an injury-free side, with Cox having made her return in the SANFLW in on the weekend.

Good position to be in going into the finals!

Edit: Whoops - forgot Nikki Gore.

Maddie Newman is still out I believe with either a shoulder or some other mystery injury, don’t know if she might return for West’s this week. Strangely the crows are not seemingly doing injury lists this season for the women just find out there’s an injury or someone’s returned if they appear/don’t appear somewhere on the weekend.

 

[cmndstab]

I did wonder about Newman, yes. I tried Googling her to see if I could find an injury but nothing came up.

 

[Peter Doherty]

If Adelaide can secure top spot then win their prelim, would the grand final be played at Adelaide Oval?

Men's team play 12:40 on the Sunday, play the game after that game? Or play it Saturday arvo/night when Adelaide Oval is free?

 

[Teen Wolf]

If Adelaide can secure top spot then win their prelim, would the grand final be played at Adelaide Oval?

Yes.

Men's team play 12:40 on the Sunday, play the game after that game? Or play it Saturday arvo/night when Adelaide Oval is free?

It would be played Saturday arvo (or possibly twilight if it's against Freo), with Channel 7's schedule just as much a factor as anything.

 

[cmndstab]

Both Freo and Brisbane go down today. Incredibly, Freo have actually dropped to fifth place!

What this means for us is that the ladder opens up, in both directions. Top spot is now a real possibility, if we can knock off Collingwood by enough. We have to beat them by at least four points (three points will probably be enough) to get a top two spot, and need to keep our percentage above 195% to take top spot. On the other hand, if we lose, we could technically fall as far as 6th place. Realistically it would take a record thumping to fall that far, but falling to fifth place is very much within the realm of possibility.

Here are the rough winning margins needed to get us top spot:

If we score loss than 40 points, our winning margin needs to be at least four (or three in some cases).
If we score over 40 points, our needed winning margin starts to climb up. Roughly speaking, for every two points we score beyond 40, the winning margin needs to go up by one point. So if we score 50, we need to win by 9. If we score 60, we need to win by 14.


If we lose to Collingwood, we almost certainly end up playing Freo next week, which is a scary proposition given how they smashed us last time. Avoiding 5th place is important, as it would mean having to travel to Perth. In order to avoid 5th place:

If we score 10 points and lose, their score needs to be below 33.
If we score 20 points and lose, their score needs to be below 39.
If we score 30 points and lose, their score needs to be below 44.
If we score 40 points and lose, their score needs to be below 49.
If we score 50 points and lose, their score needs to be below 55.

If we score 60+ points and lose, we will drop to fifth place.

I haven't double-checked these calculations so they could be off.

 

[GreyCrow]

If Adelaide can secure top spot then win their prelim, would the grand final be played at Adelaide Oval?

Men's team play 12:40 on the Sunday, play the game after that game? Or play it Saturday arvo/night when Adelaide Oval is free?

I saw an article starting to push the MCG narrative

This is what Olsen and others need to do - lobby the AFL very strongly that having a movable GF for the AFLW is the way to go for the future

 

[cmndstab]

They have definitely confirmed that this year the GF will be hosted by the grand finalist who finished higher on the ladder though.

Another nice thing if we can win today, it will push Melbourne into 4th place which will mean they play Freo next week. So one of the two teams to make us look silly would be guaranteed to knock the other out in week one of the finals.

Absolutely must win today.

 

[GreyCrow]

They have definitely confirmed that this year the GF will be hosted by the grand finalist who finished higher on the ladder though.

Another nice thing if we can win today, it will push Melbourne into 4th place which will mean they play Freo next week. So one of the two teams to make us look silly would be guaranteed to knock the other out in week one of the finals.

Absolutely must win today.

But for the future there is talk of the MCG having it permanently. This is what Olsen and Bell etc need to fight

 

[Peter Doherty]

But for the future there is talk of the MCG having it permanently. This is what Olsen and Bell etc need to fight

Which article was this?

 

[GreyCrow]

Which article was this?

Herald Sun March 13 - subscription

 

[cmndstab]

So..... Melbourne vs Freo next week at Casey Fields. Melbourne are pretty damn tough to beat over there, they haven't dropped a match there since 2019 (where they inexplicably lost all their matches at Casey and won all their other matches). Didn't drop any there in 2018 either.

We play the winner in the home prelim. Who do we want to win? Both teams made us look pretty silly when we played them.

Freo embarrassed us on our home deck, but presumably (hopefully?) we'll be at Adelaide Oval which is a very different ground. They looked like the team to beat earlier in the season, but the wheels have fallen off a bit since then, dropping close matches to Melbourne (at home) and then North Melbourne (away). They come into the finals series on a two-match losing streak.

Melbourne soundly beat us, but it was at Casey. Hard to know how well Melbourne will play over here, because the Melbourne AFLW team has literally never travelled to SA before. Five years in, we've only ever had away games against them. They're the form team at the moment, having knocked off the Crows, Freo and Brisbane in the last three weeks, and they enter the final series on a four-match winning streak. Prior to that however, they got easily beaten by Collingwood (who we just beat) and the Bulldogs (who we annihilated the week before). On the injury front, Daisy Pearce is out for at least the first final, which is a big blow.

Assuming the match is played at Adelaide Oval, it's interesting to think about the dimensions of the ground. Norwood Oval is 165m x 110m. Adelaide Oval is wider, at 167m x 124m. Casey Fields, meanwhile, is massive at 175m x 145m. Will the size of the oval play a factor in the result?

 

[radiojake]

Just aslong as they smash each other and come up sore

 

[TheRoo32]

Two of our most important players in my opinion. Huge effort and pressure!

 

[GreyCrow]

Do we have an expected match date yet?

 

[cmndstab]

Two of our most important players in my opinion. Huge effort and pressure!

View attachment 1089202

In shortened game time too. Only the Hosking sisters ahead on tackles per minute!

 

[John Who]

Martin/Button sisters and Mules are 3 great terriers in tackling. Love ‘em!

Martin in particular, she has got to be elite or thereabouts with the repeat efforts. I see her do 3-4 tackles in a row, nearly every match! Really impressive stuff and considering the size!

 

[Dirty Bird]

So..... Melbourne vs Freo next week at Casey Fields. Melbourne are pretty damn tough to beat over there, they haven't dropped a match there since 2019 (where they inexplicably lost all their matches at Casey and won all their other matches). Didn't drop any there in 2018 either.

We play the winner in the home prelim. Who do we want to win? Both teams made us look pretty silly when we played them.

Freo embarrassed us on our home deck, but presumably (hopefully?) we'll be at Adelaide Oval which is a very different ground. They looked like the team to beat earlier in the season, but the wheels have fallen off a bit since then, dropping close matches to Melbourne (at home) and then North Melbourne (away). They come into the finals series on a two-match losing streak.

Melbourne soundly beat us, but it was at Casey. Hard to know how well Melbourne will play over here, because the Melbourne AFLW team has literally never travelled to SA before. Five years in, we've only ever had away games against them. They're the form team at the moment, having knocked off the Crows, Freo and Brisbane in the last three weeks, and they enter the final series on a four-match winning streak. Prior to that however, they got easily beaten by Collingwood (who we just beat) and the Bulldogs (who we annihilated the week before). On the injury front, Daisy Pearce is out for at least the first final, which is a big blow.

Assuming the match is played at Adelaide Oval, it's interesting to think about the dimensions of the ground. Norwood Oval is 165m x 110m. Adelaide Oval is wider, at 167m x 124m. Casey Fields, meanwhile, is massive at 175m x 145m. Will the size of the oval play a factor in the result?

I want Fremantle

Fremantle have a game plan that looks amazing when everything's going good, but can be beaten
Melbourne though have a gameplan that if they're on fire, we'll struggle to beat.

 

[BRL121]

I want Fremantle

Fremantle have a game plan that looks amazing when everything's going good, but can be beaten
Melbourne though have a gameplan that if they're on fire, we'll struggle to beat.

The umpires favour Melbourne. We tackled and tackled, they dropped the ball and dropped the ball: and we got no HTBs! Then, we got exhausted and run over.

 

[Mutineer]

Crows in the AFLW AA squad.

Hatchard
Allan
Marinoff
Phillips