We all very painfully aware by now that we're crap (!) - in large part due to the fact that our scoring completely dried up over the past two seasons. We've all got arseholes opinions as to why this has happened but I thought it might be useful to analyse some stats to help us assess whether the messaging we hear out of West Lakes over the summer matches up with what we know to be the real problems.
The chart below breaks down/attributes the change in our scoring (measured by points per game, ppg) according to the relative changes (using 2017 season as the baseline) in four key factors:
Why did it happen - well we lost 11.4ppg due to worse scoring efficiency (i.e. 0.44 shots per I50 vs. 0.50) and another 11.2ppg due to worse ball movement (7.72 disposals per I50 vs. 6.83). Less critical but still hurting was a reduction in points per scoring shot (lost 4.4ppg) as our goal accuracy fell from 55% to 52% (come back JJ with your beloved Joe the Goose goals!).
If the 'Nicks Manifesto' is to "embrace the contest" then I'm not sure that this actually addresses the real problem - our split of Contested vs. Uncontested Possessions hardly wavered across those three seasons so there needs to be some smarter strategies that augment that philosophy if we're actually going to make any progress.
These days commitment (i.e. embracing the contest) is largely a given and so is basic skill level - the real differentiator is tactics to move the ball especially at the pointy end of the ground so he better have a plan for that...
Full table of data sourced from FootyWire.com
The chart below breaks down/attributes the change in our scoring (measured by points per game, ppg) according to the relative changes (using 2017 season as the baseline) in four key factors:
- Total Disposals (self explanatory)
- Disposals per Inside 50 (you might think of that as a proxy for general 'ball movement')
- Scoring Shots per Inside 50 (a measure of 'forward line/scoring efficiency')
- Points per Scoring Shot (aka 'Goal Accuracy')
Why did it happen - well we lost 11.4ppg due to worse scoring efficiency (i.e. 0.44 shots per I50 vs. 0.50) and another 11.2ppg due to worse ball movement (7.72 disposals per I50 vs. 6.83). Less critical but still hurting was a reduction in points per scoring shot (lost 4.4ppg) as our goal accuracy fell from 55% to 52% (come back JJ with your beloved Joe the Goose goals!).
If the 'Nicks Manifesto' is to "embrace the contest" then I'm not sure that this actually addresses the real problem - our split of Contested vs. Uncontested Possessions hardly wavered across those three seasons so there needs to be some smarter strategies that augment that philosophy if we're actually going to make any progress.
These days commitment (i.e. embracing the contest) is largely a given and so is basic skill level - the real differentiator is tactics to move the ball especially at the pointy end of the ground so he better have a plan for that...
Full table of data sourced from FootyWire.com
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
Disposals | 9,809 | 8,425 | 8,649 |
I50s | 1,437 | 1,162 | 1,121 |
Disposals per I50 | 6.83 | 7.25 | 7.72 |
Scoring Shots | 720 | 546 | 496 |
- Goals | 395 | 279 | 256 |
- Behinds | 325 | 267 | 240 |
Shots per I50 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
Goal Accuracy | 54.86% | 51.10% | 51.61% |
Points | 2,695 | 1,941 | 1,776 |
Points per scoring shot | 3.74 | 3.55 | 3.58 |
Matches played | 25 | 22 | 22 |
Points per game | 107.80 | 88.23 | 80.73 |