Crows Strategy

[Elite Crow]

In hindsight, you were correct and that was the time when we should have been loading up on picks, instead we were trying to "renovate" our list instead of "rebuild".

The thing is what I suggested wasn't even a rebuild. Losing Reilly and Griffin would have had no impact to our team. Just as losing Douglas and Mackay wouldn't.

 

[Footypie32]

Thread is like a time capsule of pain.

 

[Smoooothy]

Top bump

 

[Elite Crow]

Nah put it out there, was an excellent call.

I still think that we sometimes don't value draft picks highly enough - trading gives immediacy and we like that, draft picks take longer but invariably we look back and see a host of stars that were sitting there - 2013 draft a classic example.

I'm dreading the thought of what this years 2nd round will look like in 3 years time and how it might stack up against Hampton and Menzel

I think we are at a different stage to 2008 though. We are close and could do with a couple of top liners right now.

If we were to trade out Douglas and Mackay for 2nd Rd picks, we could look at it as Douglas and Mackay out for Menzel and Hampton who have a lot more upside.

 

[Mismatched]

Nah put it out there, was an excellent call.

I still think that we sometimes don't value draft picks highly enough - trading gives immediacy and we like that, draft picks take longer but invariably we look back and see a host of stars that were sitting there - 2013 draft a classic example.

I'm dreading the thought of what this years 2nd round will look like in 3 years time and how it might stack up against Hampton and Menzel

I'm not dreading it. Our time is now, we have a host of players in their prime, ready to make a push. We should be doing everything in our power at present to improve our best 22.

We've now spent the better part of 20 years trying to win a premiership by gradually topping up with draft picks and undervalued players from other clubs. Time and again it has gotten us close, but we now have the second longest GF drought of AFL club. Melbourne and Carlton have made Grand Finals more recently than we have!!!

We need to find that something that will tip us over the edge, to take that extra step from perennial top 4/Top 6 side, to Premier. If that means sacrificing 2-3 years of draft picks, that's fine, it needs to be done. We're not going to take that next step if we keep just topping up but by bit each year.

It has previously been posed that the premierships we won in 97/98 were not necessarily a great thing for the club going forward. We were far from the best team in those years, we finished 4th and 5th in the minor round. Now as much as the efforts of those sides were massive, it's propegated this belief that if we play it safe and get close enough, we might just snatch a premiership if we're lucky.

We need to go all in for the next 3-4 year and accept that if we fail, that's okay, we will spend a few years at the bottom, but we can use that time to blood young talent and gain some high end draft picks. Just as the Bulldogs have done, West Coast has done, St Kilda has done, Hawthorn and Geelong did in the early 00's.

Is it a risky play, sure, but at least we might break this cycle of mediocrity that has seemingly infested our club for 18 years. Having said this I think some good changes have occurred in the past 2-3 years and there's obviously been some good work done to get us into the position we are in now, we just need th courage to take the next step.

In 2 years time Peter, I'll be all for stocking up on draft picks in the top 30-40 and seeing if we can't unearth some future stars. If ever there were a time though for a club to trade away high draft picks for immediacy, that time is now for us.

 

[mattymac]

There's talk on the draft and trading thread for this year that had me thinking about a thread I started in 2008 and what our strategy would be to build a premiership team.

My post above suggested trading Reilly and Griffen whilst they had trade value for picks in the 20s and having a quantity of picks in the top 30. Players still available in that range were Beams, Hannebery, Motlop, Shiels, Zaharakis, Redden, Trengove and Walters.

I said it could have been a watershed moment for our club, it seems without big noting I was right.

Funny how 8 years ago there were the same types of people telling you no no we can just steadily draft and develop our way to a flag.

They didn't factor in that players get bored waiting for us to draft and develop our way to the top and so they leave to clubs that take winning seriously.

Meanwhile we're still stuck on the hamster wheel. 1 gun in, 1 gun out.

 

[Interloperer]

In the time since the start of this thread most of the same teams that were good then have stayed good, rarely missing finals and many with multiple flags and GF appearances. Despite this, apparently the reason for the Crows failure is their failure to 'bottom out'?

 

[WetCrow1991]

In the time since the start of this thread most of the same teams that were good then have stayed good, rarely missing finals and many with multiple flags and GF appearances. Despite this, apparently the reason for the Crows failure is their failure to 'bottom out'?

All those teams bottomed out initially.

 

[Elite Crow]

In the time since the start of this thread most of the same teams that were good then have stayed good, rarely missing finals and many with multiple flags and GF appearances. Despite this, apparently the reason for the Crows failure is their failure to 'bottom out'?

And I didn't even suggest bottoming out. I said move on a couple of players for some picks, had we done that we wouldn't have bottomed out. And had we picked well we could have been premiers this year.

 

[Bovo]

And I didn't even suggest bottoming out. I said move on a couple of players for some picks, had we done that we wouldn't have bottomed out. And had we picked well we could have been premiers this year.

Although you did not suggest it....if we want to bottom out....now is the time. GWS will probably have back 2 back 2 back with Sydney. No offence but we don't quite have the cattle to compete with all their AA mids. If we can't trade decent mids in, we are going to have to draft them in....which means it takes time for them to develop.

The conundrum of being a middle tier club will haunt us until we either go all the way to the top or all the way to the bottom.

 

[adelaidecrows]

In the time since the start of this thread most of the same teams that were good then have stayed good, rarely missing finals and many with multiple flags and GF appearances. Despite this, apparently the reason for the Crows failure is their failure to 'bottom out'?

Bottoming out is playing a poor mans lottery that doesn't guarantee anything. Plus the fans and club will never tolerate it and it would be reliant on a coach falling on his sword for the greater good. It would be a horrible decision to go down this path.

 

[Godallblighty]

A poor man's lottery? What is the better lottery you imagine? Every approach has risk and the only risk is not winning a premiership. Which we're not doing anyway.

 

[adelaidecrows]

A poor man's lottery? What is the better lottery you imagine? Every approach has risk and the only risk is not winning a premiership. Which we're not doing anyway.

Bottoming out is the worst strategy. No argument. it just is.

 

[Wouldbetackler]

I think we are at a different stage to 2008 though. We are close and could do with a couple of top liners right now.

If we were to trade out Douglas and Mackay for 2nd Rd picks, we could look at it as Douglas and Mackay out for Menzel and Hampton who have a lot more upside.

And get someone else in via a trade for those picks or get some young guns

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Bottoming out is the worst strategy. No argument. it just is.

Hawthorn, Collingwood, Bulldogs have all had early picks prior to making/winning grand finals

It's not a guarantee of success but there's not many that have gone down the Adelaide/North Melbourne path.

 

[mistylake]

Bottoming out is playing a poor mans lottery that doesn't guarantee anything. Plus the fans and club will never tolerate it and it would be reliant on a coach falling on his sword for the greater good. It would be a horrible decision to go down this path.

This safe thing is what scared people do.
In life if people don't borrow to invest they end up relying on the powerball numbers to come in at 1:10000000000 chance.
I know which way I roll.

 

[Elite Crow]

Hawthorn, Collingwood, Bulldogs have all had early picks prior to making/winning grand finals

It's not a guarantee of success but there's not many that have gone down the Adelaide/North Melbourne path.

And Saint Kilda

 

[Smoooothy]

Hawthorn, Collingwood, Bulldogs have all had early picks prior to making/winning grand finals

It's not a guarantee of success but there's not many that have gone down the Adelaide/North Melbourne path.

if anything, we and north have been proof that going our way just doesn't work

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

if anything, we and north have been proof that going our way just doesn't work

Our strategy is a good one once you've made it to a top level but isn't a great one to get there initially.

We copied Geelong to a degree but crucially copied them 2007-11 instead of 2001-05.

 

[1970crow]

I think we are at a different stage to 2008 though. We are close and could do with a couple of top liners right now.

If we were to trade out Douglas and Mackay for 2nd Rd picks, we could look at it as Douglas and Mackay out for Menzel and Hampton who have a lot more upside.

These guys are perfect examples of players with zero value to us as we try and take the next step that may yield a draft pick or a good upgrade to access established higher end talent now or for the future via the draft. But I expect that our value system places a too significant weighting to experience. Nothing would have been lost by playing any of about 6 other players against the Swans. And all bar perhaps Grigg yield a certain future benefit.

 

[Coopers]

They don't have zero value.
If hampton, Menzel, CEY, etc end up being no good, we have no depth left. If we get injuries we have no depth left. Both ways Mackay and Dougie would play.
I'm all for trading them out though. The reason being we can get in players with more upside. It's riskier yes, but we need to push.

 

[Geoffa32]

If you bottom out you also have to have good and stable coaches to develop the talent.

Hawthorn and Geelong have had that during their prolonged period at the top.

Richmond did not


We need to remember that since 2012 we have had five coaches.






Sent from my HTC_0P6B6 using Tapatalk

 

[1970crow]

Bottoming out is the worst strategy. No argument. it just is.

Bottoming out is rubbish. The strategy being referred to is identifying players who won't take us to the next level. Getting whatever we can for them and improving our ability to draft/trade for higher end talent. Pumping games into perennial plodders leads nowhere. As does keeping fringe players on the list without playing them and eventually delisting them. But our culture is to double down on the mediocre experience, try and eke out an extra win so we can again reach the hurdle we don't have the talent to clear.

 

[GreyCrow]

Bottoming out is no good if we don't have the people already in place . Coach , President , Draft Team , Developers and the Board all need to understand and identify how to go about it.

If you identify the wrong talent then you will stay down the bottom. Hawthorn and Sydney have 1 thing in common and that is an indefinable desire to be Number 1. To ALL move in the same direction without any distractions. To not let peanuts like us sway their decisions and moves. There is no magic formula but the one thing it seems (and those who study lists more than me can answer this better) is you turn your list over quicker than normal. If a player isn't working move them on. As much as people might laugh at Nobles sabermetrics , it is how the future will look. Unfortunately you cannot quantify promise. '' gee that David Mackay has something just wait until he gets it right''. Then maybe the price is sometimes dealing away this promise for a better pick in the Draft.

I just hope we have finished with the athletes and get back to getting footballers.

 

[Samcro24]

Bottoming out is rubbish. The strategy being referred to is identifying players who won't take us to the next level. Getting whatever we can for them and improving our ability to draft/trade for higher end talent. Pumping games into perennial plodders leads nowhere. As does keeping fringe players on the list without playing them and eventually delisting them. But our culture is to double down on the mediocre experience, try and eke out an extra win so we can again reach the hurdle we don't have the talent to clear.

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