Crunch time

[Pure_Ownage]

I don't think Brown's under pressure of delisting, in his time in the vfl he showed arguably as much as menzel and christensen did when there, and we know where they have gone since then. He's definitely a real talent. What Brown is under threat of is injury ending his career which is why it's critical he has a clean year with no season ending injury.

Motlop probably should be given time because of his injury history, but unlike Brown he hasn't shown as much when in the VFL and plays in a position that we have much more of a surplus of, so he's much more in danger.

Ditto Gillies, if he has another year like this year, although we have less depth in his position and the club seems (although that could have been trade week bluffing) to rate him.

Ironically, given he was our last pick, Hunt is the safest long term out of the 08 crop, although this is the year he'll need to push his namesake into the VFL if he is to join Bundy Duncan et al. I think he can, and he just ended up looking tired at the back end, before that he showed a fair bit.

Simpson is safe as houses (for now) unless he walks for more gametime. Orren I doubt we would cut after a year unless he completely flops but his age means he is under pressure to make a quick impact.

Byrnes is under pressure, if he can't regain his spot in the 22 it's hard to see him remaining in 2013, nor the club wanting him to remain on the salary he'd be on, to play 2's. But let's not forget how much injury ruined him this year, I still think a fit Shan is in the best 22.

It's make or break for Hogan obviously. JHunt needs to hold his spot for reasons alluded to re Byrnes.

I can't see many other candidates in danger although that may change if the club wants a lot of picks in what shapes as a strong draft.

 

[Belisarius]

Yeah - forgot about Hogan. I think he may be facing a crunch year. Had his issues and deserves another season to show off his wares - but as PO points out that if Wells sees next the draft as a super one - then there maybe a few who have to make way so the room is there to cash in on as fully as we can.

I assume if Wells does see it that way we use our other compensation pick - which I think GFC have to nominate in the near future. If this does happen then I think it will inevitably lead to a few players being under the pump.

Then again we may have a few retirements. Scarlett says he will go and so, as it stands now, we have to accept this as most likely to happen. One retirement.

Cannot see any other obvious candidates for retirement. Maybe JC if he has any further knee issues. However that still means if it is a super draft year we need to have at least 5 picks - so Scarlett goes and then who ?

Maybe Motlop and Hogan - and Gillies - they seem to be the most obvious choices at this point in time. That would give us 4 picks.

So hard to see who else maybe being looked at - at this point in time. It may all change after next season depending on how these and others perform. And injury to a player like Motlop may see him delsited.

Maybe I am wrong and 5 picks wont be what we are after - but it seems likely in a super draft. I think this is the year for some players to really go out and leave nothing behind.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Agree on Hogan and I think he deserves time but if he can't crack the senior side this year he won't get it, as we don't have many options for guys to cut.

I think it's certain they'll want at least 4 picks + Bourke so that's 5 spots, maybe even 5 spots which means 6, particularly if we activate the compo pick that's possible.

Obviously Scarlo seems like he wants to go even though he's definitely still playing super footy.

Kids wise there isn't a lot. Hogan make or break as we said. Simpson is contracted and will be given time, being a ruck we really need him. Of 09, the first four have shown they will make it (barring injury) and Cowan is tracking really well and as such will definitely be here next year. The '10 guys have shown a lot (well the three that have been on the track, and Smedts will now he's injury free) and I can't see us cutting any of our recent draftees after a year.

Therefore the only possible delistees from the kids (senior list) are Hogan + the class of 08. Brown is very highly rated and has shown a lot, so unless his body fails him he's safe. Poodle safe too IMO. Therefore even if you assume all of Hogan Gillies and Motlop don't make it, there's still 1 more spot you need to find from somewhere (maybe more if we take more picks)

That's why I see guys like Wojo and JHunt, even Byrnes, potentially being cut even though I think they've got more good footy left in them as they are the sort of mid level players that the club may be prepared to push if Wells wants a lot of picks in what looks like a good draft. You aren't going to push guys like Chapman, Corey, Enright etc, nor should we. Of course I reckon this changes if we win the flag again as then a few of the top level older guys may decide it's the best note for them to go out on.

What happens with rookies could also influence, i.e. if Bathie or Walker do enough to earn elevation that probably means Gillies goes, if Simpkin can push up that puts pressure on Byrnes etc.

Either way I think it's a big year and there will probably be some guys who are going to be unlucky to be cut at the end of it.

 

[you pick one]

Think it is crunch time for the 08 draft. Brown and Motlop need to show they can stay on the park for a full year and play some consistent football at VFL level. Gillies - is obviously rated internally a lot higher than he is on BF but needs to start showing progress again. Hunt's probably the exception, think he's done everything that has been asked of him and was just a victim of circumstance this year.

Just a gut feeling but if it had been anyone but Hawthorn looking at Gillies to bolster their height deficient backline I think he'd be gone.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Just a gut feeling but if it had been anyone but Hawthorn looking at Gillies to bolster their height deficient backline I think he'd be gone.

You reckon the vow of never losing to them again extends to never feeding them our cast-offs as well? I likes it

 

[bobbycatsfanme]

Just a gut feeling but if it had been anyone but Hawthorn looking at Gillies to bolster their height deficient backline I think he'd be gone.

personally disagree bigtime...we're talking about a 21 year old key position backman who's spent the past 3 to 4 seasons at an AFL club that boasts arguably one of the greatest defensive lines the game has ever seen and even the most underrated blokes like Wojak, Hunt & Mackie have continued to improve with age and right now find themselves in career best form (unfortunately for Cat fans, at the wrong time of their careers).

Bomber Thompson and Scott need to be credited once again for at least allowing Gillies some game time in that formidable backline as most other coaches wouldn't have given any thought if you had those types of players at your disposal.

Harry Taylor came to the club as a mature aged defender and his time spent at East Fremantle for 50 games was invaluable as Stephen Wells knows all to well and poached that league for more obvious talent.
No doubt Gillies would be playing regular senior footy if we never came across Harry.
Hawks came sniffing around for good reason...Gillies is valuable, he's 6ft 4, 90kg and has excellent agility.
He hasn't taken the VFL by storm as of yet but with Scott now at the realm, I think he knows that Wojak & Scarlett are on limited time due to age so Gillies will come into our side very similar to how Taylor did.

All defenders take time to develop and he's still just 21 years of age and trying to crack into Geelong's defense.
If he hasn't caught on in another 2 seasons then it may be time to cut him from the list but you do not de-list 21 yr old KPB

 

[you pick one]

Harry Taylor came to the club as a mature aged defender and his time spent at East Fremantle for 50 games was invaluable as Stephen Wells knows all to well and poached that league for more obvious talent.
No doubt Gillies would be playing regular senior footy if we never came across Harry

Laidler was ahead of Gillies

Hawks came sniffing around for good reason...Gillies is valuable, he's 6ft 4, 90kg and has excellent agility.

Hawks were desperate and looking for something for nothing

He hasn't taken the VFL by storm as of yet but with Scott now at the realm, I think he knows that Wojak & Scarlett are on limited time due to age so Gillies will come into our side very similar to how Taylor did.

There will be others Scott will want to look at as well,he knows what he's got with Gillies.

All defenders take time to develop and he's still just 21 years of age and trying to crack into Geelong's defense.
If he hasn't caught on in another 2 seasons then it may be time to cut him from the list but you do not de-list 21 yr old KPB

Unless your going in to a super draft and your got to cut someone.

Sorry for the format of the reply but my computer skills are shit.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I agree with YPO, we're going into a draft where as I said we don't have many obvious delist candidates and we're going to want a swag of picks. Gillies may well have talent, but his year this year was much poorer than his 2010 VFL year and he had some big bags kicked on him with a few very poor games. Another year like that, and he'll be likely to be going, regardless of how strong the senior team is and how hard it is to get games, he needs to make serious inroads this year or it could well be his last with us. I also don't see the Hawthorn thing having much of a bearing on that-that was a simple case of not assisting a top 4 rival unless the offer was too good to refuse, it has very little bearing on whether he'll be here in 2013.

 

[bobbycatsfanme]

Unless your going in to a super draft and your got to cut someone.

Sorry for the format of the reply but my computer skills are shit.

what's Laidler? 5ft 11, 6ft tall?

Laidler seems to get alot of credit on this Geelong forum but I personally do not rate him one little bit and you'll see exactly what I mean next season. He's playing his role in a team that has squat in defense and has taken his average qualities to a another side that has accommodated his loose checking style of play.

But anyways I have seen Gillies enough to realize he's got the potential to make it in this Geelong squad and Scott certainly wouldn't see what he has with Gillies as all football players develop when given match time. If he knew what he's got with a player 21 years of age then I think it's fairly safe to assume we can pencil in the 2012 premiership considering he's that gifted as coach.

 

[meto]

Laidler, 190cm~6'3", abit skinny but filling.
Has proved himself you'd have to say, plays a key role at times for Carlton.
Not bad for a cast off.

 

[Belisarius]

Given that so many posters rate many of the VFL players we have, given that you would expect that the draftees of 2011 would get 2 years to prove themselves - and given I don't expect to lose that many players thru retirement at the end of the 2012 season - and IF Wells sees the 2012 ND as a super one - then it really will be crunch time for quite a few players you would think.

If Wells activates the Ablett compensation pick - then I think we can be sure he sees it as a super draft. However that just adds more pressure to delist another player - if we go for 5 picks.

My guess is we will see 2 retirements - outside maybe 3. That will leave 2-3 to be delisted or traded. Does not sound many but with so many raps on our VFL players currently it still will be crunch time for a few.

My guess is that Gillies and Motlop would need good years to avoid being traded. But trading next year maybe more difficult as if other recruiters see it as a super draft - they maybe reticent to trade away draft picks for players.

This is going to be one hell of a season coming up.

I reckon the VFL side will do well (but I have been saying that for the last 2 seasons !), that the AFL season will be closer than last year in terms of wins and losses for the top 4 positioned teams, I expect as many, if not more, rotations so we can establish who might be a AFL prospect for us and finally with a crunch time coming - many VFL players will be really going for it.

Add to that Smedts finally gets to play - and from what I hear and read - he will help to excite us over the season. Vardy will return along with Menzel as well. The Big O and Simpson get their chance.

Wow - no guarantee of Premiership success - but wow !

 

[Belisarius]

I cannot find the thread on the status of our injured players - so will post the question here.

Has anyone got info on how Pods is doing ? Menzel ? Vardy ? Brown ?

Are they in rehab - or training ?

When is likely they will be available to come back into the side ?

Thanks.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

what's Laidler? 5ft 11, 6ft tall?

Laidler seems to get alot of credit on this Geelong forum but I personally do not rate him one little bit and you'll see exactly what I mean next season. He's playing his role in a team that has squat in defense and has taken his average qualities to a another side that has accommodated his loose checking style of play.

But anyways I have seen Gillies enough to realize he's got the potential to make it in this Geelong squad and Scott certainly wouldn't see what he has with Gillies as all football players develop when given match time. If he knew what he's got with a player 21 years of age then I think it's fairly safe to assume we can pencil in the 2012 premiership considering he's that gifted as coach.

Personally I think Laidler is a better player than you're giving him credit for, but that's a side point.

You're entitled to your opinion Bobby that Gillies has real talent, and that's fine in and of itself, but you're missing the point. This thread is not about which of our young players we think are the most talented (there's another one for that), it's simply about which players are in danger of not having a spot on the list in 2013, and whether he's talented or not, Gillies definitely fits into that category. Now maybe because you rate him you are confident that he will have the good year with a lot of senior games that he needs to keep his spot on the list, but I would have thought it's pretty obvious and hard to argue against the fact that at this point he's in real danger, as with some of the other guys mentioned in this thread.

Given that so many posters rate many of the VFL players we have, given that you would expect that the draftees of 2011 would get 2 years to prove themselves - and given I don't expect to lose that many players thru retirement at the end of the 2012 season - and IF Wells sees the 2012 ND as a super one - then it really will be crunch time for quite a few players you would think.

If Wells activates the Ablett compensation pick - then I think we can be sure he sees it as a super draft. However that just adds more pressure to delist another player - if we go for 5 picks.

My guess is we will see 2 retirements - outside maybe 3. That will leave 2-3 to be delisted or traded. Does not sound many but with so many raps on our VFL players currently it still will be crunch time for a few.

My guess is that Gillies and Motlop would need good years to avoid being traded. But trading next year maybe more difficult as if other recruiters see it as a super draft - they maybe reticent to trade away draft picks for players.

This is going to be one hell of a season coming up.

I reckon the VFL side will do well (but I have been saying that for the last 2 seasons !), that the AFL season will be closer than last year in terms of wins and losses for the top 4 positioned teams, I expect as many, if not more, rotations so we can establish who might be a AFL prospect for us and finally with a crunch time coming - many VFL players will be really going for it.

Add to that Smedts finally gets to play - and from what I hear and read - he will help to excite us over the season. Vardy will return along with Menzel as well. The Big O and Simpson get their chance.

Wow - no guarantee of Premiership success - but wow !

Not necessarily, I think they'll activate it regardless to give some cover, so we don't have no selections in the top 30 if someone else bids for Bourke and we have to use our 1st rounder on him. Keep in mind you have to nominate the compo pick before round 1, whereas you won't know til at least June or July what type of pick Bourke is likely to require. They may rate it as a super draft, but nominating the compo pick doesn't necessarily mean that.

Re your other bolded point, that's an issue, and also my concern is that if we don't have many retirements other clubs will know we have to delist guys like Gillies Motlop etc so they'll be unlikely to offer much at the trade table when they could just get them in the draft.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I cannot find the thread on the status of our injured players - so will post the question here.

Has anyone got info on how Pods is doing ? Menzel ? Vardy ? Brown ?

Are they in rehab - or training ?

When is likely they will be available to come back into the side ?

Thanks.

From what I can gather:

Brown-in full training, likely to be ready for NAB Cup

Pods-restricted training (i.e. not much other than running), likely to miss NAB Cup but be fit for round 1.

Menzel-based on being injured in finals with what is usually between 9 and 12 months for a reco, return late 2012. Wouldn't expect to see him before say round 15 at least.

Vardy-indefinite, no return date set yet. Wait and see.

 

[you pick one]

The Ablett pick PO.Do we have to activate it pre rd1 one to trade it or can it be traded any time if thats the way they want to go.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The Ablett pick PO.Do we have to activate it pre rd1 one to trade it or can it be traded any time if thats the way they want to go.

No-you must activate it pre round 1 whether you want to trade/draft with it. Basically once it is activated it then expires at the end of the year, so you either use it in 2012 trade or 2012 draft.

 

[you pick one]

Now for the real hard one, say we finish top 2 again the Ablett pick is 18th or 19th if we trade it to say the Crows for a player who finish say 13th is it then pick 7 for them giving them picks 6 and 7.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Now for the real hard one, say we finish top 2 again the Ablett pick is 18th or 19th if we trade it to say the Crows for a player who finish say 13th is it then pick 7 for them giving them picks 6 and 7.

The initial document about compo picks wasn't 100 % clear on this IMO, and the AFL haven't put out any info since to clarify it, but my reading of it is that it would stay tied to our finishing position if the receiving club decided to activate it in 2012 draft. What I'm not sure of is if the receiving club holds it for say 2014, then whether it would then be based on where they finish in 2014 rather than where we do.

 

[you pick one]

This is like buying a car with free panel beating in the first 5 years,your got to have a disaster to get value for money.

 

[Belisarius]

I understand your point PO - but if it is not a super draft - why activate your compo pick ?

If Bourke is a good round 1 pick - then we have got a good new player. And if the draft is not that good - why do we need 2 round one draft picks ? - in a year that might see few senior players retire - and would therefore result in us having to delist/trade an extra player we might prefer to hang onto - had we not activated the compensation pick.

I would say given the raps on so many young players we have, including Motlop, that we would be better off activating the compo pick in 2013 if Wells does not rate this draft.

That way we are not forced to delist a player we might prefer otherwise to keep.

I reckon GFC would always like 4 picks in the ND. Compo pick makes 5.

Not sure 5 players will work if we only have 2 retirments - and for sure GFC would want Scarlett to play on. If he does - then we may only have 1 retirement meaning we need to delist / trade 4 players.

I just cannot see 4 players at present who would be delisted.

I assume GFC are running thru all the possible scenarios - and using the compo pick is more than likely an indicator that they see Bourke and a top 15 pick as truly worthwhile in this draft.

By the way - how do we know this is or isn't a super draft ? Who does the rating of the drafts - club recruiters just saying they have seen enough to know it will be a super draft, a good draft or an ordinary draft ? Where does that idea come from ?

 

[you pick one]

I understand your point PO - but if it is not a super draft - why activate your compo pick ?

If Bourke is a good round 1 pick - then we have got a good new player. And if the draft is not that good - why do we need 2 round one draft picks ? - in a year that might see few senior players retire - and would therefore result in us having to delist/trade an extra player we might prefer to hang onto - had we not activated the compensation pick.

I would say given the raps on so many young players we have, including Motlop, that we would be better off activating the compo pick in 2013 if Wells does not rate this draft.

That way we are not forced to delist a player we might prefer otherwise to keep.

I reckon GFC would always like 4 picks in the ND. Compo pick makes 5.

Not sure 5 players will work if we only have 2 retirments - and for sure GFC would want Scarlett to play on. If he does - then we may only have 1 retirement meaning we need to delist / trade 4 players.

I just cannot see 4 players at present who would be delisted.

I assume GFC are running thru all the possible scenarios - and using the compo pick is more than likely an indicator that they see Bourke and a top 15 pick as truly worthwhile in this draft.

By the way - how do we know this is or isn't a super draft ? Who does the rating of the drafts - club recruiters just saying they have seen enough to know it will be a super draft, a good draft or an ordinary draft ? Where does that idea come from ?

I see the bolded as being the problem having to activate the compo pick at the start of the season rather than the end where some of those things are clearer.

 

[you pick one]

[quote=Belisarius;23090048]

Not sure 5 players will work if we only have 2 retirments - and for sure GFC would want Scarlett to play on. If he does - then we may only have 1 retirement meaning we need to delist / trade 4 players.

I just cannot see 4 players at present who would be delisted.

Iquote]

What makes it all the more interesting is Chapman,Corey.Bartel,Byrnes, Enright,Johnson.Kelly.Mackie,J Hunt, Scarlett and Wojo would all be veterans in 2013 under the new rules with only half they coin counted in the salary cap.

 

[Rosso]

The initial document about compo picks wasn't 100 % clear on this IMO, and the AFL haven't put out any info since to clarify it, but my reading of it is that it would stay tied to our finishing position if the receiving club decided to activate it in 2012 draft. What I'm not sure of is if the receiving club holds it for say 2014, then whether it would then be based on where they finish in 2014 rather than where we do.

I believe it's still based on our finishing position regardless of being a comprimised draft or not, otherwise we would've traded it to GWS for one of the 16 year olds, giving them picks one and two next year.

Clubs will be looking to cash in on this draft and we will be no exception. Not wanting to pot players but as far as retirements go you would have Wojo, Hunt, Corey & Scarlett considering options. Hogan, Motlop, Gillies among others will need to press for snr selection in 2012 to have their contracts renewed. So not wanting or wishing for these gents to depart but you can see that there are options if we need to make room in out list. Add to that the poaching of our players and spots will be available when required.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

What makes it all the more interesting is Chapman,Corey.Bartel,Byrnes, Enright,Johnson.Kelly.Mackie,J Hunt, Scarlett and Wojo would all be veterans in 2013 under the new rules with only half they coin counted in the salary cap.

Not quite, the old system was 2 X half their salary outside cap, from what we have seen in the media it seems to be the new system will be about 8 guys with the amount outside the cap about 100k each. But yes, normally that would spread the largesse among the older players, compared to the old system where 2 guys would get a lot more than anyone else, and as such would make it less likely that older mid tier guys get pushed out for cap reasons. But in our case it'll be list spots not cap that is the issue if any older guys are pushed to go.

I understand your point PO - but if it is not a super draft - why activate your compo pick ?

If Bourke is a good round 1 pick - then we have got a good new player. And if the draft is not that good - why do we need 2 round one draft picks ? - in a year that might see few senior players retire - and would therefore result in us having to delist/trade an extra player we might prefer to hang onto - had we not activated the compensation pick.

I would say given the raps on so many young players we have, including Motlop, that we would be better off activating the compo pick in 2013 if Wells does not rate this draft.

That way we are not forced to delist a player we might prefer otherwise to keep.

I reckon GFC would always like 4 picks in the ND. Compo pick makes 5.

Not sure 5 players will work if we only have 2 retirments - and for sure GFC would want Scarlett to play on. If he does - then we may only have 1 retirement meaning we need to delist / trade 4 players.

I just cannot see 4 players at present who would be delisted.

I assume GFC are running thru all the possible scenarios - and using the compo pick is more than likely an indicator that they see Bourke and a top 15 pick as truly worthwhile in this draft.

By the way - how do we know this is or isn't a super draft ? Who does the rating of the drafts - club recruiters just saying they have seen enough to know it will be a super draft, a good draft or an ordinary draft ? Where does that idea come from ?

I suppose it depends on your definition of good to very good draft vs super draft. Obviously if the club thinks the pool is poor they won't activate it, my point was that they don't necessarily need to think the draft is super to activate it. If they think the draft is good to very good then that's reason enough, with the chance we could have to use a 1st on Bourke. Particularly when you consider a lot of compo picks are likely to be activated this year, high second round picks (assuming we are top 4 again) are likely to be well into the 40's, and I can't see the club wanting to risk our first pick being there at a time when we are having a lot of retirements and need to get good young talent in. Tactically it makes sense to activate it even if it isn't obvious who would go to make way for the spot.

As to the rating of drafts, recruiters track kids a long way out, most of the good kids have been tracked since they were 15-16, so the recruiters have a fair idea 12 months out how strong the pool will be. And this one looks very good, I think the comparisons to 01 that many people are making are very premature, but I would be prepared to predict that this draft will be better than say 09, and we all know how well we cleaned up there.

As for delistings, I expect one of two scenarios. Either a bunch of top level older guys (e.g. Scarlett Chapman Corey etc) decide they want to hang them up in which case we have to make few if any delistings as happened this year. If that doesn't happen then the half a dozen spots or so we'll need to clear will be a combination of a) older mid tier guys (Hunt, Wojo etc) being told they won't get new contracts plus b) fringe kids who've had a few years (Hogan/Gillies/Motlop etc) getting the chop unless they become integral parts of the 22 this year.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I believe it's still based on our finishing position regardless of being a comprimised draft or not, otherwise we would've traded it to GWS for one of the 16 year olds, giving them picks one and two next year.

Clubs will be looking to cash in on this draft and we will be no exception. Not wanting to pot players but as far as retirements go you would have Wojo, Hunt, Corey & Scarlett considering options. Hogan, Motlop, Gillies among others will need to press for snr selection in 2012 to have their contracts renewed. So not wanting or wishing for these gents to depart but you can see that there are options if we need to make room in out list. Add to that the poaching of our players and spots will be available when required.

You're probably right, if the compo pick wasn't tied to our finishing position then no doubt we would have won the bid for Crouch, so it probably remains tied no matter what.

I do agree we'll be looking to cash in on this draft, I know the club didn't have much choice with all the retirements, but if they took 5 picks plus F/S this year I can't see them not taking at least the same number in 2012. I agree on the guys in danger too, 08 (except Hunt and Brown probably) plus Hogan need a good year and any older player is close to the edge of the 22 might be in trouble. They'll need to hold their spots to stay, and the 08 kids will need to push in or they'll be out.