Cryptocurrency mega-thread

[maryjames]

Crypto will go bananas before the big crash Michael burry. ...

 

[maryjames]

Cool the overrated death cross of 2021.

 

[Evolved1]

Good to see the AUD dumping for a change.

 

[Evolved1]

How do you guys see this playing out?

After a few drinks, I'm seeing 38k->33k->43k->29k

 

[maryjames]

How do you guys see this playing out?

After a few drinks, I'm seeing 38k->33k->43k->29k

I’m still full bulled up. 3 more months maybe 4 of slush 30k to 42k. Then takes off for 6 months and goes ballistic. Then comes down for the halving and then next bull run begins..

 

[Evolved1]

I’m still full bulled up. 3 more months maybe 4 of slush 30k to 42k. Then takes off for 6 months and goes ballistic. Then comes down for the halving and then next bull run begins..

I can see us potentially ranging for awhile here. Best to keep it simple and buy low in the range and sell highs of the range until something changes.

Do you use leverage?

 

[Evolved1]

There's some good info about trading death crosses in this link

Thread by @jackis_trader on Thread Reader App

Thread by @jackis_trader: Death Cross 📚 The heavily discussed MA 50 vs MA 200 Death Cross and why it is not what they are trying to sell you ▪️ What is it supposed to be? ▪️...

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Evolved1]

 

[Evolved1]

Don't agree with everything he said but he makes some good points.

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry warns the 'mother of all crashes' is coming - and predicts crypto and meme stocks will plummet (msn.com)

Could be related to USD strength.

 

[Bostonian]

Down down prices are down.

 

[ash_1050]

How do you guys see this playing out?

After a few drinks, I'm seeing 38k->33k->43k->29k

My statement that BTC will hit US$20k before it hits $65k is looking truer by the day. Expecting it to bottom around US$18k, so further pain ahead. BTC won't go above US$48k again this year.

 

[Angus Young]

My statement that BTC will hit US$20k before it hits $65k is looking truer by the day. Expecting it to bottom around US$18k, so further pain ahead. BTC won't go above US$48k again this year.

5 to 10k would be nice boss.

 

[Bostonian]

US dollar on the up, gold down, crypto down.
Cash is king at present.

 

[BACCS]

US dollar on the up, gold down, crypto down.
Cash is king at present.

It’s rise up will be as brittle as Mark Cuban’s Titan holdings. Interest rates are almost certain to go up later this year.

 

[Evolved1]

My statement that BTC will hit US$20k before it hits $65k is looking truer by the day. Expecting it to bottom around US$18k, so further pain ahead. BTC won't go above US$48k again this year.

Quite possible. There's not a lot of support between 20 and 30k.

 

[Evolved1]

5 to 10k would be nice boss.

You'd have to think its just about over for crypto if we go below 10k again.

 

[BACCS]

Quite possible. There's not a lot of support between 20 and 30k.

Lucky that there’s a lot of support just above 30k then. The on-chain metrics are showing that a lot of accumulation is occurring in that low 30k range. Anyway, it took 8 weeks to recover from the COVID crash, it’s only been 5 since the mid May crash. I’m not sold on reaching 100k this year, but I would be surprised if we don’t at least get back to the previous ATH.

 

[BACCS]

 

[Evolved1]

Lucky that there’s a lot of support just above 30k then. The on-chain metrics are showing that a lot of accumulation is occurring in that low 30k range. Anyway, it took 8 weeks to recover from the COVID crash, it’s only been 5 since the mid May crash. I’m not sold on reaching 100k this year, but I would be surprised if we don’t at least get back to the previous ATH.

I trust the charts more than onchain metrics, and don't see any comparison between the covid crash and the recent dump. The March 2020 crash was a black swan event while the dump from 55k was technical. There were long periods of bearish divergence in volume, RSI, and OBV at the top of the range.

You can make the argument that we're still ranging which is true, but price is showing weakness at the bottom of the range between 30 and 42k. The support here isn't that strong. Support is built through price spending extended periods of time in one zone. On the way up, BTC spent about a month in the 30 to 42k zone, and we've spent a similar amount of time ranging here on the way down. What happens on the way up can happen just as quickly on the way down.

I'm yet to see a convincing argument that this is accumulation rather than further distribution. Irrespective of that, crypto will dump hard if the stock market crashes and USD gains strength.

 

[Nothing]

I'm off to catch some falling knives.

 

[BACCS]

I trust the charts more than onchain metrics, and don't see any comparison between the covid crash and the recent dump. The March 2020 crash was a black swan event while the dump from 55k was technical. There were long periods of bearish divergence in volume, RSI, and OBV at the top of the range.

You can make the argument that we're still ranging which is true, but price is showing weakness at the bottom of the range between 30 and 42k. The support here isn't that strong. Support is built through price spending extended periods of time in one zone. On the way up, BTC spent about a month in the 30 to 42k zone, and we've spent a similar amount of time ranging here on the way down. What happens on the way up can happen just as quickly on the way down.

I'm yet to see a convincing argument that this is accumulation rather than further distribution. Irrespective of that, crypto will dump hard if the stock market crashes and USD gains strength.

Why do you not trust on chain metrics? There is more than enough history of BTC to make good statistical judgements based off of them.

How is there weakness in the low 30s? We are clearly building up some level of support here, as we have seen it dip here several times since mid May and there has always been a decent recovery to the high 30s/early 40s.

Interest rates will go up in the US later this year, whatever bounce the USD gets now will be very short lived. As I’ve said many times now, I can see the price ranging between 33-45k until the end of July/August, which isn’t a bad thing as the bounce will be a lot stronger when it finally happens.

Anyway, if you’re confident of the direction it’s heading, are you opening a short?

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

This is horrible

 

[BACCS]

This is horrible

It’s crypto, I’ve seen this dip about 7 times since the major crash now. Either use this as time to accumulate or come back in a few months time, the market isn’t getting a V shaped recovery.

 

[Evolved1]

Why do you not trust on chain metrics? There is more than enough history of BTC to make good statistical judgements based off of them.

How is there weakness in the low 30s? We are clearly building up some level of support here, as we have seen it dip here several times since mid May and there has always been a decent recovery to the high 30s/early 40s.

Interest rates will go up in the US later this year, whatever bounce the USD gets now will be very short lived. As I’ve said many times now, I can see the price ranging between 33-45k until the end of July/August, which isn’t a bad thing as the bounce will be a lot stronger when it finally happens.

Anyway, if you’re confident of the direction it’s heading, are you opening a short?

I've found trading the chart works best for me. On chain metrics aren't as reliable an indicator in my opinion.

Meandering above support isn't a sign of strength. The more support is tested, the weaker it gets. There are spots between here and high 20's where things could turn around, or alternatively we could fall right through and dump straight to the mid 20's.

Your strategy is different to mine. My number one goal is protecting capital, and there will be places with better risk/reward to short and long than here. I don't care if I need to buy back in higher.

The signs were there at the top, but people were too busy looking for a BTC blow off top to sell. Blow off tops happen when retail is FOMO'ing, which happened with some of the alt charts. Take a look at the monthly ETH chart for example.

 

[Evolved1]

It’s crypto, I’ve seen this dip about 7 times since the major crash now. Either use this as time to accumulate or come back in a few months time, the market isn’t getting a V shaped recovery.

There are some coins I wouldn't be accumulating here irrespective of strategy. DOGE for example is still highly overpriced. A lot of alts look like they've entered a death spiral. Buy the dumps and sell the bounces is the way to go.