I absolutely use the charts to make my decisions as well and given that we have been below the 20 week SMA for a month now, it’s clearly not recovering in the short term.I've found trading the chart works best for me. On chain metrics aren't as reliable an indicator in my opinion.
Meandering above support isn't a sign of strength. The more support is tested, the weaker it gets. There are spots between here and high 20's where things could turn around, or alternatively we could fall right through and dump straight to the mid 20's.
Your strategy is different to mine. My number one goal is protecting capital, and there will be places with better risk/reward to short and long than here. I don't care if I need to buy back in higher.
The signs were there at the top, but people were too busy looking for a BTC blow off top to sell. Blow off tops happen when retail is FOMO'ing, which happened with some of the alt charts. Take a look at the monthly ETH chart for example.
I’m a believer in the lengthening cycle theory, but that doesn’t mean the previous ATHs can’t be reached again this year and then resume a run to 100k in 2022. Anyway, only time will tell and I can afford to accumulate now and ride it out.