Cryptocurrency mega-thread

[Chief]

Possibly, but the hopium has washed out and the fear and despair have set in. Now’s the time to start accumulating given it’s down more than 66% from the ATH. You don’t know where the bottom is until you’ve recovered from it

Read The Black Swan:

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

More the pointlessness of prediction than whether or not crypto or any events within crypto are Black Swans.

It's kind of like seeing five reds in a row on a roulette table, then running over and putting all your money on black because it HAS to come up next.

This is the point of all the criticism: nothing says bitcoin or Eth or any of them HAVE to ever reach their all time highs ever again. They could settle in at $1 forever more. Or $1000. Or $10,000. Nobody knows. There is no underlying value to any of these tokens.

 

[ash_1050]

Read The Black Swan:

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

More the pointlessness of prediction than whether or not crypto or any events within crypto are Black Swans.

It's kind of like seeing five reds in a row on a roulette table, then running over and putting all your money on black because it HAS to come up next.

This is the point of all the criticism: nothing says bitcoin or Eth or any of them HAVE to ever reach their all time highs ever again. They could settle in at $1 forever more. Or $1000. Or $10,000. Nobody knows. There is no underlying value to any of these tokens.

Gave it a read in April 2020 after it came in vogue from the covid plummet. Completely agree that they may never recover and that there's no real underlying value to crypto coins at this point of their development. The counterpoint to that is that markets are cyclical, and if you believe that your investment in <insert coin here> is going to appreciate over a timeframe of weeks, months or years, then buying progressively when it's down 66%+ off the all time high is a smart decision. The same applies to any asset that you'd invest in.

 

[Chief]

if you believe that your investment in <insert coin here> is going to appreciate over a timeframe of weeks, months or years, then buying progressively when it's down 66%+ off the all time high is a smart decision. The same applies to any asset that you'd invest in.

What is that belief based on?

 

[ash_1050]

What is that belief based on?

It will differ from person to person, for me it's simply a case of having faith in the market cycles and wanting to have some diversity in my portfolio. There's a repeated pattern that is evident across both the crypto and stock market, that when the market as a whole is down it will eventually return to a new all time high. It's happened for the last 100 years in the stock market, and the last 12 years of crypto which, while it isn't enough of a sample size, is the only data we've got to work with.

If you're someone who believes that this current unsteadiness is going to doom us forever and there's no possibility of the stock market or crypto space getting back to all time highs then you'd be going against all the evidence we have. You may also eventually be right as well, but there would be many wider issues to worry about if that were the case.

 

[dustysnecktattoo]

Places like Celsius blocking people from doing withdrawals is so damaging, untrustworthy, binance doing the same thing to people, causing heavier losses ect, not your keys not your crypto blah blah be your own bank blah blah an absolute scam in my opinion you don’t truely have control with crypto at all! Too many crypto slogans as sale pitches that are absolute lies, it’s a tainted space forever now sadly

 

[William Wonka]

Bitcoin is more like digital gold than a currency. One way of determining bitcoins value is to tie it to the cost of production, which can be determined by price of electricity, block reward, mining difficulty and efficiency of miners.

Have you ever held a large piece of gold in your hand?
It drips 'value' like nothing else on earth.
It has inspired avarice for millennia for this reason- everyone who sees it, wants it.

This is also ignoring its incredible usefulness as a metal.

Bitcoin has no appeal whatsoever beyond what it can be exchanged for.

And thats the problem in a nutshell.

It's usefulness is as a currency of exchange not as a store of value so it can either remain a valuable thing with no use or a useful thing with no value- Not both.

 

[Chief]

Places like Celsius blocking people from doing withdrawals is so damaging, untrustworthy, binance doing the same thing to people, causing heavier losses ect,

How much do you want to bet that certain customers are being allowed to withdraw? With not a single regulation or law governing this crap, somebody is getting to front of the queue taking money out to the detriment of all the plebs.

 

[Bostonian]

Places like Celsius blocking people from doing withdrawals is so damaging, untrustworthy, binance doing the same thing to people, causing heavier losses ect, not your keys not your crypto blah blah be your own bank blah blah an absolute scam in my opinion you don’t truely have control with crypto at all! Too many crypto slogans as sale pitches that are absolute lies, it’s a tainted space forever now sadly

So crypto is no different to the rest of life then.

You don't truly own your house, your bank accounts, anything.

 

[Chief]

Communism??

 

[The Dice Man]

So crypto is no different to the rest of life then.

You don't truly own your house, your bank accounts, anything.

Not even your body, as the last few years have explicitly shown.

 

[Deliverance]

People need to get over the idea of ownership. We are just temporary custodians with regards to everything on this planet.

 

[Chief]

Not even your body, as the last few years have explicitly shown.

I thought you had avoided the jabs and your town was totally unaffected?

 

[beez]

My favourite part about crypto Twitter is wanting a verification system so scammers can't scam.

Said without any irony of course.

 

[craffles]

Can the Lord Messiah Elon pls tweet on his platform that he can't be de-platformed from so we can all ride crypto to moon. HODL

Crypto will go down as the Biggest scam in economic history

 

[FRUMPY]

Can the Lord Messiah Elon pls tweet on his platform that he can't be de-platformed from so we can all ride crypto to moon. HODL

Crypto will go down as the Biggest scam in economic history

That's all it will take to get the price going up, and the super rich will only get richer. Buy low, everyone hops on board, price goes up, the rich sell (and make squillions), price drops, idiots who got on late lose their nerve and make a big loss

 

[juss]

It's going to be a bearish winter for a while I reckon, anywhere up to 6-18 months I think.
I'm still buying though, doing a DCA with a small amount each month for the same assets in my portfolio.

 

[FRUMPY]

It's going to be a bearish winter for a while I reckon, anywhere up to 6-18 months I think.
I'm still buying though, doing a DCA with a small amount each month for the same assets in my portfolio.

yep, same news articles claiming its over or going to go bust will be telling us we should have bought at the dip in 1-2 years time

 

[Seeds]

It will differ from person to person, for me it's simply a case of having faith in the market cycles and wanting to have some diversity in my portfolio. There's a repeated pattern that is evident across both the crypto and stock market, that when the market as a whole is down it will eventually return to a new all time high. It's happened for the last 100 years in the stock market, and the last 12 years of crypto which, while it isn't enough of a sample size, is the only data we've got to work with.

If you're someone who believes that this current unsteadiness is going to doom us forever and there's no possibility of the stock market or crypto space getting back to all time highs then you'd be going against all the evidence we have. You may also eventually be right as well, but there would be many wider issues to worry about if that were the case.

See this point on stock markets isnt correct. Numerous stock markets, let alone just individual stocks, have completely collapsed over the past 100 years never to return.

not once in this post have you described why crypto has value. I just see meaningless buzz words like faith.

 

[Seeds]

It's going to be a bearish winter for a while I reckon, anywhere up to 6-18 months I think.
I'm still buying though, doing a DCA with a small amount each month for the same assets in my portfolio.

Or perhaps its not a winter at all and just the start of the end.

can we stop using the term crypto winter. Its another crypto propogandist buzz term used to imply the all crypto falls are just part of a cycle that will definately rebound. There is zero reason why it should rebound? crypto prices aint driven by an inevitable cycle like a season.

the whole point of crypto orginally is that it was supposed to be a hedge against currency inflation. I.e. Hold its value when the value of money fell. Its doing the opposite right now so we cant pretend there is any crypto cycle that makes logical sense. It makes logical sense for productive stocks to move up and down with the market cycle. But it does not make sense for crypto to do the same.

 

[Seeds]

People need to get over the idea of ownership. We are just temporary custodians with regards to everything on this planet.

Do we own ourselves? Is it just a certain part of ownership you want people to get over or the concept in its entirety?

its an interesting discussion. Deserves a thread of its own.

 

[juss]

Or perhaps its not a winter at all and just the start of the end.

can we stop using the term crypto winter. Its another crypto propogandist buzz term used to imply the all crypto falls are just part of a cycle that will definately rebound. There is zero reason why it should rebound? crypto prices aint driven by an inevitable cycle like a season.

the whole point of crypto orginally is that it was supposed to be a hedge against currency inflation. I.e. Hold its value when the value of money fell. Its doing the opposite right now so we cant pretend there is any crypto cycle that makes logical sense. It makes logical sense for productive stocks to move up and down with the market cycle. But it does not make sense for crypto to do the same.

You are right we don't know for "certain". Just like we don't know anything for "certain" really.
All the data we have available so far though suggests that crashes are followed by rises in the market.

This one is a particularly significant one due to the global turmoil and uncertainty due to a whole number of factors.

I however, still believe in the value and potential of the technology, which is why I am confident in DCA buying now (obviously to my level of risk, which is money I can afford to lose, I'm not throwing my life savings all into crypto). It is a diversified investment as part of my greater portfolio which includes other assets.

 

[Seeds]

So crypto is no different to the rest of life then.

You don't truly own your house, your bank accounts, anything.

Your bank accounts are protected by the government Regardless of what happens to the bank.

as is your house.

you only potentially lose them if the government falls.

Thats not what is happening now with crypto.

 

[Bostonian]

Your bank accounts are protected by the government Regardless of what happens to the bank.

as is your house.

you only potentially lose them if the government falls.

Thats not what is happening now with crypto.

Really?

How was it that the Government told my friends family we're taking 30 acres of land off you, it'll destroy your 114 year old business and we will pay you pennies on what the land is actually worth and did we mention your livelihood is now gone?

Is that what you mean by Government protection?

And how about when you bust your gut working only for the Government to steal a bunch of it off you before it even gets to your account. Forgot about that?

 

[FRUMPY]

Your bank accounts are protected by the government Regardless of what happens to the bank.

as is your house.

you only potentially lose them if the government falls.

Thats not what is happening now with crypto.

imagine if some or all of the banks went under at the same time.....government just going to give us our money back?.......good luck with that

government wants your property.......good luck telling them no or getting fair and reasonable value

one thing we know for certain, governments dont give a shit about its people, just money and whoever gives them the most

 

[BobbyMorri]

imagine if some or all of the banks went under at the same time.....government just going to give us our money back?.......good luck with that

government wants your property.......good luck telling them no or getting fair and reasonable value

one thing we know for certain, governments dont give a s**t about its people, just money and whoever gives them the most

Governments regulate the banks to try and prevent banks from crashing. They guarantee deposits to avoid bank runs. Governments don't want people to lose money.

Regulation is good. hopefully, one day, Crypto understands that.

yes, it is a tough economic market. But LUNA collapsing was the start of downfall in the price.