Daft drafting, terrible trading...or just very, very unlucky?

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When was the last time we debuted a draftee in round 1 of a season? (Not counting mature agers).

Was it Morabito or Steven Hill?

I remember Hills debut against the Dogs, the footy jumper was sliding off his shoulders - believe he kicked a goal with his first kick too? If he was drafted these days he wouldn't debut for 2 years.
 
I remember Hills debut against the Dogs, the footy jumper was sliding off his shoulders - believe he kicked a goal with his first kick too? If he was drafted these days he wouldn't debut for 2 years.

If he was drafted by Freo, correct.

As round 1 this year showed, most clubs are still quite prepared to play their draftees in round 1.
 

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Easy to be 20/20 in hindsight, but I do think that some of our drafting at the time was questionable at the time.

2010
20 pick Pitt (not fault of our own about his heart condition) but Darling was a key position player from WA with a drinking and partying problem. We should have taken the risk.

44 pick Michie - injury issues. The other option was Fasolo but at the time we had a young Ballatyne and Walters

56 pick Mellington - injury issues. Ok pick

Pre -Season
Pick 8 - Anthoney was a good risk to put with little cost. Just didn't work out.

Rookie draft -

Pick 20 Roberts - injury issues. Not sure why we went for a small/medium forward when could have gone for Fasolo. Other choices were Johannisen and McGovern. The planning to replace Duffield and McPharlin should have taken place here.

Pick 37 - Pick Lower - solid choice and good foot solder but again sometimes you need to take risks with talls.

2011
Pick 16 Sheridan - good pick but alot of times picks don't come off

Pick 18 - Crozier - same as above

Pick 29 - Forster - good pick but injuries cost him his career. Others were Kersten, B Hill and Hamling. Hindsight is 20/20 but this pick was ok.

Pick 59 - Neale - great pick but was a risk.

Pick 71 Sutcliffe - great pick considering such a low pick

Pre Season - pick 10 Dawson - good pick up, filled a need without costing much

Rookie draft
pick 8 - Spurr great pick

Pick 26 - Schoithe good pick. Just a very good WAFL player.

Pick 44 - Menegola good pick.

2012
Pick 17 Simpson good pick, WA boy and no one could have predicted what would happen. In saying that Grundy as well as Simpson fell to us. Both considered top 10 picks. For me, this is what I could call list planning. We had Clarke, Sandilands, and Griffin but getting Grundy would have been a great plan to replace either Sandilands or Griffin plus Clarke was always threat to go home

Pick 36 Smith - great pick just didn't work out

Pick 39 Duffy - ok pick just didn't work out

Pre Season Pick 8 Hannath - great pick, filled a need just didn't work out in the end

Rookie
Pick 11 - Taberner great pick

Pick 25 - Howson good pick just didn't work out

Pick 46 - Moller great pick just didn't work out

2013
Pick 17 Apeness good pick but injuries. I did think that Gardiner was a better pick at the time. Lobb was pick at 29 but at the time he was a long shot.

Pick 37 Pearce - great pick

Pick 58 Grey - good pick but at the time felt Marsh was a better risk

Rookie
Pick 16 Wood - good pick just didn't work out

Pick 32 Vandeleur - same as above

Pick 47 Ballard - ok pick but for me the guy was a good VFL player

2014
pick 13 Weller - good pick and was projected to go earlier. For me, Lever was a better pick. Bigger risk, bigger reward. Projected to go pick 1 until injuries. Other recruiters were very surprised that went small.

Pick 34 Blakely - great pick who fell in the draft. Sure, we have gone for Mcgovern but Mcgovern went about where people though he would be. Daniel could have been picked. Easy to look back and have a go.

Pick 54 - Langdon great pick for a late pick. Could have gone for Clem Smith but they went for attitude verses talent.

Pick 68 - Deluca ok pick for a late pick

Rookie
Pick 13 Hughes good pick fills a need

Pick 31 Smith good idea to give a second chance on a tall

Pick 48 Hurley good idea and needs to be more international recruits

2015
Pick 27 Tucker great pick as he was projected to go first round. Could have picked Adams but thought they would get him with the next pick

Pick 38 Balic good risk. Wrist injury made him fall from the first round.

Pick 55 Collins great pick and please Lyons play him

Pick 61 Yarran good pick

Rookie
Pick 16 Uebergang good pick and solid risk

Pick 34 Nyhuis solid pick

Pick 50 Morabito good idea

Pick 60 Deluca not bad

2016
Pick 8 Griffin great pick and fills a need

Pick 38 Darcy great pick best tap ruck and good replacement for Sandilands

Pick 41 Cox good pick but rather Maibaum and Macreadie

Pick 66 Ryan great pick

Rookie
Pick 3 Duman good pick

Pick 21 Strnadica great pick

Pick 38 Grey ok pick not sure if he has alot of upside

Pick 50 Deluca ok pick but for me should have pick Liam Ryan. Bigger risk but massive reward
 
Mate, are you actually for real? You've literally labelled almost every single pick good or great, including players that never got a game or even looked like it?

That post was so far off the mark it's bizarre.
Draft picks have a 30% chance of making 50 games. Rookie picks have a 10% chance.
If a player has injury issues is that the fault of the recruiters?
Example Forster. He was an All Australia half back at 189cm with exceptional skills. He just couldn't get on the park. Anybody, can look back and say we should have selected Brad Hill. For me, it was a good pick that didn't work out.
 
Freo drafted good players until Nigel smart left in 2009 or thereabouts. The problems started when brad lloyd become recruiting manager.
 
How many grand finals have Teams played since 2008? Freo 1 Adelaide 0
How many top 4 finishes since 2008? Freo 2 Adelaide 1

Very comfortable with our drafting. Fyfe Brownlow medalist at pick 20 is the best pick by any club in the last decade.
 

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Freo drafted good players until Nigel smart left in 2009 or thereabouts. The problems started when brad lloyd become recruiting manager.

*Phil Smart... and that's a pretty clear rewriting of history.

He gets a lot of (deserved) credit for apparently being the one who insisted on picking Fyfe, but his overall record was less than stellar.

Between the Pav/Hase draft of '99 and our great '08 draft our drafting was largely abysmal.
 
*Phil Smart... and that's a pretty clear rewriting of history.

He gets a lot of (deserved) credit for apparently being the one who insisted on picking Fyfe, but his overall record was less than stellar.

Between the Pav/Hase draft of '99 and our great '08 draft our drafting was largely abysmal.

Phil Smart may have known his Claremont players, but IMO he didn't have the same level of knowledge across Australia and we missed more obviously talented players and made some really poor trading decisions.

I am comfortable that our current recruiting team do at least a satisfactory job, if not better.
 
What's this thread even for? Adelaide's drafting hasn't been that good, They've done alright with their trading but it's nothing special imo.
So a guy makes some good points, then puts in a heck of a lot of research to prove those good points, and your first reaction is: what's this thread even for?
Gotcha.
 
My biggest beaf with recent drafting has been this 'take the best player available' (whatever the * that even means) as opposed to drafting for need. Now we have a string of average skilled flanker/midfield types and not enough KP talent.
 
So a guy makes some good points, then puts in a heck of a lot of research to prove those good points, and your first reaction is: what's this thread even for?
Gotcha.
I don't think the research was required because the point isn't valid. He also doesn't list one of our best draftees in that time period Lachie Neale. Ps I don't care how much effort somebody puts into a post.
 
Draft picks have a 30% chance of making 50 games. Rookie picks have a 10% chance.
If a player has injury issues is that the fault of the recruiters?
Example Forster. He was an All Australia half back at 189cm with exceptional skills. He just couldn't get on the park. Anybody, can look back and say we should have selected Brad Hill. For me, it was a good pick that didn't work out.

Still don't think you can call those good or very good mate. As a whole all clubs deal with injuries etc and as a whole we haven't done as well as other clubs. At the time Pitt was another very similar player to others on our list and we could have picked darling. I hate darling but he's a good player at least. Pitt was never going to fill the needs we had short and long term that darling would have. There is sadly simply no arguing the point.

As for recent drafts if we stop playing piss poor players like Danyle and Suban and give young guys opportunities perhaos they will deliver more.
 
My biggest beaf with recent drafting has been this 'take the best player available' (whatever the **** that even means) as opposed to drafting for need. Now we have a string of average skilled flanker/midfield types and not enough KP talent.
Taking the best available isn't the problem, it's the total inability to fix the other problems through trading and free agency.

The club has been far too conservative at the trade table over the last 5+ years.

By all means hold onto your picks when you're finishing low on the ladder if that's your jam, but when you've got got picks in the mid-late teens or in later rounds where the elite talent has already been taken, you need to be getting the job done through other avenues.

We either had no desire to do that, or we had no plan B when it didn't eventuate.
 
I don't think the research was required because the point isn't valid. He also doesn't list one of our best draftees in that time period Lachie Neale. Ps I don't care how much effort somebody puts into a post.
In your opinion, which you are entitled to.

If you bothered to read the OP you would understand why players like Lachie Neale weren't included. Yes we struck gold with Neale, but you're kidding yourself if you believe his selection at pick 58 was a great credit to our recruiters. He was overlooked 57 times before his name was called. He could have ended up anywhere, including the SANFL.

The later your draft pick the less likely you are to find a quality player. Fact. If you get a good one at 58 or in the Rookie Draft, then count yourself lucky, nothing more.

Here are some numbers to back this up. Again looking at that 2009-2014 period.

I have broken players selected into three groups:
1. National Draft picks 1-40.
2. National Draft picks 41+.
3. Rookie Draft picks 1+.

I have excluded father/son, Academy picks, Mini Drafts and State Zone selections. I did this to only include players who were freely available to all clubs.
I have excluded Rookie Draft picks who were not rookies (33yo 200+ gamers aren't really rookies).
I have only included players once. A number of players have been ND picked, then delisted and redrafted via the RD. All players are included where they were first selected.

ND picks 1-40: 232 players (186 still current - 80.2%).
ND picks 41+: 172 players (73 still current - 42.4%).
RD picks 1+: 274 players (77 still current - 28.1%).

ND picks 1-40: 13 players failed to play a game before their career ended (5.6%).
ND picks 41+: 30 players ended on zero games (17.4%).
RD picks 1+: 119 players ended on zero games (43.4%).

ND picks 1-40: 84 players have played 50+ games (36.2%). Another 39 are currently on 30+ games.
ND picks 41+: 25 have played 50+ games (14.5%). Another 31 are on 30+ games.
RD picks 1+: 36 have played 50+ games (13.1%). Another 40 are on 30+ games.

ND picks 1-40: 24 players have played 100+ games (10.3%). Another 24 are currently on 80+ games.
ND picks 41+: 5 players have played 100+ games (2.9%). Another 9 are on 80+ games.
RD picks 1+: 8 players have played 100+ games (2.9%). Another 13 are on 80+ games.

Where do Freo rate in all this?

Looking only at ND picks 1-40 (total of 232 players. 14 Freo players).

A total of 26 players ended their careers on 10 games or less (11.2%). Six of them were Freo players (42.9%).

A total of 84 players have played 50+ games (36.2%). Three of them were Freo players (21.4%).
Another 39 players are on 30+ games, none are Freo players.

A total of 24 players have played 100+ games (10.3%). Fyfe is the only Freo player (7.1%).
Another 24 players are on 80+ games, none are Freo players.

-----------------------------------------------
Our drafting during this period was woeful and that combined with some even worse trading has left us with a list which is mediocre by league standards.

Where would we be if those low percentage late picks hadn't come up trumps?

The merit of our recent draft picks will take some time to determine. Let's hope they turn out to be winners.
 
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In your opinion, which you entitled to.

If you bothered to read the OP you would understand why players like Lachie Neale weren't included. Yes we struck gold with Neale, but you're kidding yourself if you believe his selection at pick 58 was a great credit to our recruiters. He was overlooked 57 times before his name was called. He could have ended up anywhere, including the SANFL.

The later your draft pick the less likely you are to find a quality player. Fact. If you get a good one at 58 or in the Rookie Draft, then count yourself lucky, nothing more.

Here are some numbers to back this up. Again looking at that 2009-2014 period.

I have broken players selected into three groups:
1. National Draft picks 1-40.
2. National Draft picks 41+.
3. Rookie Draft picks 1+.

I have excluded father/son, Academy picks, Mini Drafts and State Zone selections. I did this to only include players who were freely available to all clubs.
I have excluded Rookie Draft picks who were not rookies (33yo 200+ gamers aren't really rookies).
I have only included players once. A number of players have been ND picked, then delisted and redrafted via the RD. All players are included where they were first selected.

ND picks 1-40: 232 players (186 still current - 80.2%).
ND picks 41+: 172 players (73 still current - 42.4%).
RD picks 1+: 274 players (77 still current - 28.1%).

ND picks 1-40: 13 players failed to play a game before their career ended (5.6%).
ND picks 41+: 30 players ended on zero games (17.4%).
RD picks 1+: 119 players ended on zero games (43.4%).

ND picks 1-40: 84 players have played 50+ games (36.2%). Another 39 are currently on 30+ games.
ND picks 41+: 25 have played 50+ games (14.5%). Another 31 are on 30+ games.
RD picks 1+: 36 have played 50+ games (13.1%). Another 40 are on 30+ games.

ND picks 1-40: 24 players have played 100+ games (10.3%). Another 24 are currently on 80+ games.
ND picks 41+: 5 players have played 100+ games (2.9%). Another 9 are on 80+ games.
RD picks 1+: 8 players have played 100+ games (2.9%). Another 13 are on 80+ games.

Where do Freo rate in all this?

Looking only at ND picks 1-40 (total of 232 players. 14 Freo players).

A total of 26 players ended their careers on 10 games or less (4.3%). Six of them were Freo players (42.9%).

A total of 84 players have played 50+ games (36.2%). Three of them were Freo players (21.4%).
Another 39 players are on 30+ games, none are Freo players.

A total of 24 players have played 100+ games (10.3%). Fyfe is the only Freo player (7.1%).
Another 24 players are on 80+ games, none are Freo players.

-----------------------------------------------
Our drafting during this period was woeful and that combined with some even worse trading has left us with a list which is mediocre by league standards.

Where would we be if those low percentage late picks hadn't come up trumps?

The merit of our recent draft picks will take some time to determine. Let's hope they turn out to be winners.
Nigel Phil Smart likes this :thumbsu:
 
Nigel Phil Smart likes this :thumbsu:
Sorry I didn't mean to be a Nigel Smart Arse.

In Smart's defence he wasn't left with many good draft picks after we traded so heavily during the Schwabb erra. Then as iamjunglemuffin stated we went too far the other way between 2010>2015 and refused to give up first Rd picks in trades. 2012 was classic e.g. No trades and ended up with Josh Simpson, Tanner Smith & Max Duffy. We could have traded out the Josh Simpson pick. 2012 was seen as a weak draft and has proven as being the case.

Old Phil 'maxwell' Smart lost me in the super the draft of 2001. We traded out pick 1 for Croad and then Smart was super pleased that we ended up with Graham Polak at no. 4 stating that he was their no. 1 pick anyway, ahead of Judd and Hodge.

I think many of us were genuinely excited to see that we traded so creatively in 2016 without selling the farm and then going to the well with some pretty solid draft picks.
 

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