Daft drafting, terrible trading...or just very, very unlucky?

[Belnakor]

Clean the whole list management department out. Bondy, Lloyd and whoever else is in there. Fresh start is well and truly needed.

I reckon it might be a geelong type scenario when they cut most of their coaching staff but kept the actual coach (bomber)

 

[youmewe]

Brilliant analysis - compares like for like with all clubs. If you have the spare time, could you compare with our top four contemporaries - Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney?

Big question marks about our recruitment post 2009. Yes, we haven't had top draft picks, but we've done a lot worse than the league average.

This part stuck out to me:



We are over represented in the early failures. This can't be all pinned on the coach - if he simply wasn't playing them they'd still be on the list. But guys like Duffy, Houghton, Forster just outright disappearing from football isn't good enough.

As requested. Remember the parameters: ND picks 1-40; 2009-14; no father/son, academy or State Zone selections.

Players still current (League Average (LA) 80.2%):
Freo 7/14 (50%).
West Coast 10/12 (83.3%). Includes one player on another team's list.
Western Bulldogs 9/11 (81.8%). Inc 2 players on other lists.
Hawthorn 6/9 (66.7%). Inc 2 on other lists.
Geelong 12/12 (100%). Inc 4 on other lists.
Sydney 10/10 (100%). Inc 3 on other lists.
Adelaide 7/7 (100%). Inc 1 on another list.

Players who finished their careers on 10 games or less (LA 11.2%):
Freo 6/14 (42.9%).
WC 2/12 (16.7%).
WB 0/11 (0%).
Haw 3/9 (33.3%).
Gee 0/12 (0%).
Syd 0/10 (0%).
Adel 0/7 (0%).

Games played (50+ LA 36.2%; 100+ LA 10.3%):
Freo 21.4%; 7.1%.
WC 33.3%; 25%.
WB 27.3%; 0%.
Haw 22.2%; 11.1%.
Gee 25%; 16.7%.
Syd 40%; 30%.
Adel 42.9% (M. Crouch 49+); 42.9%.

Trades during this period:
Freo 10 (3 still current); 50+ games 4; 100+ games 1 (D. Pearce 96+, Dawson 89+).
WC 8 (4); 50+ 4; 100+ 0 (Hill 97+, Cripps 84+).
WB 13 (4); 50+ 1; 100+ 0.
Haw 14 (5); 50+ 7; 100+ 4 (9 premiership players).
Gee 7 (1); 50+ 1; 100+ 0.
Sydney 12 (4); 50+ 7; 100+ 3.
Adel 11 (6); 50+ 5; 100+ 1 (Jenkins 95+, Brown 93+).

 

[Schauermann]

lots of stats

Not looking good...

 

[igon value]

As requested. Remember the parameters: ND picks 1-40; 2009-14; no father/son, academy or State Zone selections.

Players still current (League Average (LA) 80.2%):
Freo 7/14 (50%).
West Coast 10/12 (83.3%). Includes one player on another team's list.
Western Bulldogs 9/11 (81.8%). Inc 2 players on other lists.
Hawthorn 6/9 (66.7%). Inc 2 on other lists.
Geelong 12/12 (100%). Inc 4 on other lists.
Sydney 10/10 (100%). Inc 3 on other lists.
Adelaide 7/7 (100%). Inc 1 on another list.

Players who finished their careers on 10 games or less (LA 5.6%):
Freo 6/14 (42.9%).
WC 2/12 (16.7%).
WB 0/11 (0%).
Haw 3/9 (33.3%).
Gee 0/12 (0%).
Syd 0/10 (0%).
Adel 0/7 (0%).

Damning. By those stats we'd have to have the worst recruitment in the league.

Thanks a lot for the work

 

[Ysaye]

Damning. By those stats we'd have to have the worst recruitment in the league.

Thanks a lot for the work

What - and Hawthorn the second worst recruiters?

What is the argument to say turnover of lists (and quick turnover of players early) is a bad (or indeed good) thing?

And is it independent of ladder position?

 

[nurries]

Why have we still got the same recruiting manager? Jobs for the boys?

 

[Lach72]

As requested. Remember the parameters: ND picks 1-40; 2009-14; no father/son, academy or State Zone selections.

Players still current (League Average (LA) 80.2%):
Freo 7/14 (50%).
West Coast 10/12 (83.3%). Includes one player on another team's list.
Western Bulldogs 9/11 (81.8%). Inc 2 players on other lists.
Hawthorn 6/9 (66.7%). Inc 2 on other lists.
Geelong 12/12 (100%). Inc 4 on other lists.
Sydney 10/10 (100%). Inc 3 on other lists.
Adelaide 7/7 (100%). Inc 1 on another list.

Players who finished their careers on 10 games or less (LA 5.6%):
Freo 6/14 (42.9%).
WC 2/12 (16.7%).
WB 0/11 (0%).
Haw 3/9 (33.3%).
Gee 0/12 (0%).
Syd 0/10 (0%).
Adel 0/7 (0%).

Games played (50+ LA 36.2%; 100+ LA 10.3%):
Freo 21.4%; 7.1%.
WC 33.3%; 25%.
WB 27.3%; 0%.
Haw 22.2%; 11.1%.
Gee 25%; 16.7%.
Syd 40%; 30%.
Adel 42.9% (M. Crouch 49+); 42.9%.

Trades during this period:
Freo 10 (3 still current); 50+ games 4; 100+ games 1 (D. Pearce 96+, Dawson 89+).
WC 8 (4); 50+ 4; 100+ 0 (Hill 97+, Cripps 84+).
WB 13 (4); 50+ 1; 100+ 0.
Haw 14 (5); 50+ 7; 100+ 4 (9 premiership players).
Gee 7 (1); 50+ 1; 100+ 0.
Sydney 12 (4); 50+ 7; 100+ 3.
Adel 11 (6); 50+ 5; 100+ 1 (Jenkins 95+, Brown 93+).

Looks bad...Pitt, Morabito, Simpson, and Apeness.

We also forget Palmer....I know he's out side your parameters

Palmer if fit should be a close to 200 game 28 year old now, right in the slot

 

[igon value]

What - and Hawthorn the second worst recruiters?

What is the argument to say turnover of lists (and quick turnover of players early) is a bad (or indeed good) thing?

And is it independent of ladder position?

Hawks traded a lot of picks between 2009 and 2014 - from memory, Burgoyne, Hale, Gibson and Gunston were all traded into the Hawks using top 40 draft picks. Had they kept those draft picks, maybe they would have a better retention rate, or maybe they'd have a worse one. But given all four of those players played in their triple premiership side they probably made the right move.

For Freo it's not just the ones that dropped off that don't cut the mustard: Crozier and Sheridan still haven't cemented their place in the side, while three players in the same draft taken well after them - Hamling, Hill and Kersten - are currently in our best 22.

 

[Ysaye]

For Freo it's not just the ones that dropped off that don't cut the mustard: Crozier and Sheridan still haven't cemented their place in the side, while three players in the same draft taken well after them - Hamling, Hill and Kersten - are currently in our best 22.

IMO, this a sample of one draft used to justify a theory. For me this is probably our "worst draft" based upon what was known at the time, and even then we still came out with okay players on a list after this amount of time that could still potentially have an AFL future.

Secondly; we are comparing players of different positions and styles. Factors of existing numbers of types of positions on lists IMO plays an impact on the ranking of mid-level draft picks.

 

[igon value]

IMO, this a sample of one draft used to justify a theory. For me this is probably our "worst draft" based upon what was known at the time, and even then we still came out with okay players on a list after this amount of time that could still potentially have an AFL future.

Secondly; we are comparing players of different positions and styles. Factors of existing numbers of types of positions on lists IMO plays an impact on the ranking of mid-level draft picks.

I dunno, 2010 and 2012 drafts were pretty bad too.

 

[Ysaye]

I dunno, 2010 and 2012 drafts were pretty bad too.

I disagree that they were bad. I presume you refer to the first picks in each?

As footballers, both Pitt and Simpson were dual sided footballers with elite speed and (in Pitt's case) height. Both were generally rated as Top 10 footballers at the time, but were available at picks later than that. In the few games they played they demonstrated at the least that they had these qualities. If not for their external issues, they would be ideally suited to addressing our "skills" shortage coming out of defense and maintaining offensive pressure in the forward line respectively.

Both had external issues; it is always hard to see how those play out. Darling had multiple external reasons not to pick him but he turned out fine. Jeremy McGovern didn't work hard enough as a junior and was unfit and all clubs ovetlooked him many times till he fell to pick 44 of the rookie list. There are heaps of players that teams haven't taken because of early knee reconstructions, and in hindsight everyone goes "oh why didn't we take them?". And then there are those that go the complete opposite way.

 

[ydraw]

Darling had multiple external reasons not to pick him .

He really didn't though. Darling's major "crime" was that he got caught rooting his girlfriend on school camp.

If that put off anyone off drafting him to the AFL then that person is just an idiot.

 

[Logue]

The reality is that we have made some poor selections on occasion, and on other occasions we've just been ... yes, pretty damned unlucky.

When I'm speaking of the "unlucky", I'm speaking of selections like Pitt and Morabito. Pitt was a grey one, we don't know if he would have come on or not. Kid had potential, is about all you can say. The more cynical of our supporters might use the term "due diligence" from a medical perspective in that case, but I really don't think it was one of those things that could have been predicted and is entirely in the bad luck basket.

Morabito, though, was one of those players who could and should have made a significant difference to our team structure and capability. Firmly in the "unlucky" category in my opinion (and probably everyone else's).

There are those, though, who when trying to make a point about Freo's drafting history who would simply place both Pitt and Morabito in the "bust" category to make things look worse than what they probably are.

And then there's the complicating factor of draft risk rather than poor drafting.
There are times when a risk is deemed worth taking, and the club then relies upon its initial assessment of that risk and later its development people to lessen that risk.
Josh Simpson is the obvious example here. Again, if he'd embraced the city lifestyle and the AFL in general, he could have been anything.
Added to that, if you really look at the 2012 draft, there are no obvious examples of picks taken after our #17 that year who would have been obvious replacements. Brodie Grundy, perhaps, ignoring like for like. There were certainly some serviceable players in there, but (arguably) not much in the way of headliners, or players who would have been "better" for Fremantle in the long term than a 50+ games Josh Simpson who'd turned up at the airport that day.
I'd personally place Simpson in the "failed acceptable risk" category given the draft that year, but I'm sure there are more than a few who would disagree.


Basically, I can only imagine how different our structure and wow-factor would look with 50+ games into Morabito and Simpson alone. Imagining Morabito in that 2013 grand final side is sort of like losing a winning lotto ticket, really.

Simpson was a disaster and every other club put a line through him when it came out he had a child in his final interviews, something he managed to keep on the down low until weeks before the draft.

Stephen Wells was taking him until a week before the draft.

 

[Logue]

He really didn't though. Darling's major "crime" was that he got caught rooting his girlfriend on school camp.

If that put off anyone off drafting him to the AFL then that person is just an idiot.

And he suffered a fractured skull outside the Subi Hotel, he is and was a very dim unit.

 

[rgauci]

And he suffered a fractured skull outside the Subi Hotel, he is and was a very dim unit.

Nail hammer head. This is conveniently overlooked, he had a major head injury, in a league that was being spooked by rising litigation from the NFL. Especially with regards to concussion etc.

If he cops a big hit, has a seizure and dies. The Eagles will probably fold as a result of the risk they took drafting him and the AFL would be sued for hundreds of millions for not providing a safe working environment. I hope that never happens.

That's why I don't understand the angst when he pulled out of a contest on the wing in the finals. The game was over, he had little to gain and so much to lose.

 

[Logue]

Nail hammer head. This is conveniently overlooked, he had a major head injury, in a league that was being spooked by rising litigation from the NFL. Especially with regards to concussion etc.

If he cops a big hit, has a seizure and dies. The Eagles will probably fold as a result of the risk they took drafting him and the AFL would be sued for hundreds of millions for not providing a safe working environment. I hope that never happens.

That's why I don't understand the angst when he pulled out of a contest on the wing in the finals. The game was over, he had little to gain and so much to lose.

In isolation I'd agree, but it was the compounding of his GF failings that made it all the worse.

 

[igon value]

Nail hammer head. This is conveniently overlooked, he had a major head injury, in a league that was being spooked by rising litigation from the NFL. Especially with regards to concussion etc.

If he cops a big hit, has a seizure and dies. The Eagles will probably fold as a result of the risk they took drafting him and the AFL would be sued for hundreds of millions for not providing a safe working environment. I hope that never happens.

And an asteroid could hit planet earth.

 

[Dirty_banchez]

And an asteroid could hit planet earth.

RIP Dinosaurs

 

[free at last]

Have we had any change in our recruitment department of late?

 

[DMan 11]

Have we had any change in our recruitment department of late?

No, when I did the new facility tour we were shown the trading offices and there were pictures of skinny half back flankers all over the walls with "target" written next to them...

 

[ydraw]

And he suffered a fractured skull outside the Subi Hotel, he is and was a very dim unit.

He suffered a fractured skull when someone coward punched him without provocation. Not sure how that says anything about him being a draft risk.

Can you guys just not accept that our drafting was s**t?

 

[Silent Alarm]

He suffered a fractured skull when someone coward punched him without provocation. Not sure how that says anything about him being a draft risk.

Can you guys just not accept that our drafting was s**t?

Was s**t?

 

[PurpleWizard]

I think it's been more unlucky than anything. That said, the club is cooked.

See y'all in 8 years.

 

[wild side]

may as well give the licence back, and we can all go back to our wafl clubs !

 

[Scham]

Jinxed!