Daily Special - December

[iluvparis]

Concept is going well and shows how much more profitable punting can be if you just use a bit of discipline.

Time to build a Christmas kitty to spend on your wives/husbands/daughters/sons/escorts

 

[iluvparis]

Kilmore - Race 8 - 8.Stragun @ BT

Not far off a couple of semi decent horses in town at his last two and this isn't the toughest BM 64 you'd ever see. Don't normally like backing bush trainers/jockeys but none of the big boys have brought anything for this race so worth a shout.

 

[iluvparis]

Kilmore - Race 8 - 8.Stragun @ BT

0-1, -1

Sandown - Race 3 - 8.Testability @ BT+

Looks a really nice BM70 with a number of unexposed horses. While it might be too short for her, I think Testability might prove the best of these so hopefully she is ready to go first up. Wasn't far off them in town last time she saw a dry track.

 

[iluvparis]

Sandown - Race 3 - 8.Testability @ BT+

0-2, -2

Warrnambool - Race 7 - 4.Profit Share @ BT

Semi decent race for a Thursday and this Weir trained runner looks one of the few in form runners. Nice third in the China bowl and trainer obviously on fire. Think any black odds are good odds.

 

[FallingLiefs]

0-0 -0.0 [11-26-1.25]

nothing yesterday, minimal today unless there's a bit of market confidence about a handful.

r5 Northam - Marchand @$26 (LUX)

probably one of two i'm looking at in the race and he's a nice price. Strange market and instead of rambling on why the market looks like it needs a complete shuffle since the fave come out, this is a good horse. forgive his last start and he's competitive in this. while the performances in the book flatter him a little, this is a provincial race and he shouldn't be going backwards, he's only 6. Maps good etc should at least give a run for your money. I am worried he might get blown out the door if i've made a mistake forgiving him so it's a bit of wait and see what happens with the market.

 

[FallingLiefs]

from now on guys can you back it in steady small bets so i can at least get my second half of the bet on before it gets into second fave. k thx.

#nochancewinningonthatmuchovers

 

[rideclutch]

0-2, -2

Warrnambool - Race 7 - 4.Profit Share @ BT

Semi decent race for a Thursday and this Weir trained runner looks one of the few in form runners. Nice third in the China bowl and trainer obviously on fire. Think any black odds are good odds.

Never, ever, ever wanted to be on anything else in the run.

Can overrace like a bastard but they go hard, fave suspect at the trip is overdoing it, all he had to go is hook him out and it's all over... Nice tip

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah was slightly worried there was so much money for the locally trained one that ended up fave but just meant the winner got to a silly price.

 

[iluvparis]

Warrnambool - Race 7 - 4.Profit Share @ BT $3.20

1-2, +0.2

Ascot - Race 8 - 4.Magic Artist @ BT+

Eastern state form has dominated so far at the WA carnival and this guy should have won the LKS and ran huge in the Emirates. As long as he gets a crack at them in the straight he'll take all the beating.

 

[FallingLiefs]

0-0 -0.0 [11-26-1.25]

nothing yesterday, minimal today unless there's a bit of market confidence about a handful.

r5 Northam - Marchand @$26 (LUX)

probably one of two i'm looking at in the race and he's a nice price. Strange market and instead of rambling on why the market looks like it needs a complete shuffle since the fave come out, this is a good horse. forgive his last start and he's competitive in this. while the performances in the book flatter him a little, this is a provincial race and he shouldn't be going backwards, he's only 6. Maps good etc should at least give a run for your money. I am worried he might get blown out the door if i've made a mistake forgiving him so it's a bit of wait and see what happens with the market.

0-1 -1.0 [11-27 -2.25]

Must have had the work experience kids on Thursday mornings to go up $26 across the board after scratchings. As usual the overs goblin chewed up the ticket and my (and SP) fave eventually got him at a reasonable price.

Cerise and white. Long odds on (55-70% market share) in 4 of 6 majors tomorrow that a peters horse wins.

Ascot r7 - Silverstream @3

I think is the best of them, hard to split it and Ideal Image so I'll go with value. Threat is Madassa with the shades on back to 1000 which suits it 10 fold more than 6f WFA with Malibu style the absolute blowout. Extreme speed in the race should bring it right into this. I had this as a star of super Saturday Gets down to 53kg! Worth a look at $3

Was keen to tip delicacy just cause, but the feature looks an extremely hard race to find value in early markets at about $5 the field.

 

[iluvparis]

Ascot - Race 8 - 4.Magic Artist @ BT+

Haven't seen a German capitulate like that since Stalingrad.

1-3, -0.8

Traralgon - Race 7 - Longeron @ $2.30

Class horses with big weights have been having a good country cup's season and can't see that changing here. Ok first up then quite good in the Kilmore Cup last time out. Should be ready to fire third up here.

 

[FallingLiefs]

0-1 -1.0 [11-27 -2.25]

Must have had the work experience kids on Thursday mornings to go up $26 across the board after scratchings. As usual the overs goblin chewed up the ticket and my (and SP) fave eventually got him at a reasonable price.

Cerise and white. Long odds on (55-70% market share) in 4 of 6 majors tomorrow that a peters horse wins.

Ascot r7 - Silverstream @3

I think is the best of them, hard to split it and Ideal Image so I'll go with value. Threat is Madassa with the shades on back to 1000 which suits it 10 fold more than 6f WFA with Malibu style the absolute blowout. Extreme speed in the race should bring it right into this. I had this as a star of super Saturday Gets down to 53kg! Worth a look at $3

Was keen to tip delicacy just cause, but the feature looks an extremely hard race to find value in early markets at about $5 the field.

And this was the only one where it didn't salute. To be fair Sheidel looks to have run a close to PB in the wet on pace where it's on speed opponent scratched so no worries there. We may see the first two in Melbourne early next year.

0-2 -2.0 [11-28 -3.25]

r6 Northam - Bomber Bay @TT+

Head hurts and only done small amount of form this looks in well if it can make it out of the gates. Is a bet in play proposition.

 

[iluvparis]

Traralgon - Race 7 - Longeron @ $2.30

1-4, -1.8

Terang - Race 4 - 8.Defar @ BT

Going back to hunting semi quality in rubbish maidens. Think the only danger here is the Weir runner and the Price first starter.

 

[iluvparis]

Terang - Race 4 - 8.Defar @ BT

1-5, -2.8

Wangaratta - Race 8 - 10.Moparee @ BT

Well fancied and less than 2 lengths from the winner in three runs in this grade earlier in the spring. Stable is absolutely flying now and think she will be ready to win here.

 

[iluvparis]

Wangaratta - Race 8 - 10.Moparee @ BT $4.50

2-5, +0.7

Sandown - Race 7 - 8.Auckland Beauty @ BT

Two excellent wins to start her prep before disappointing when well fancied at Sale last time out. Think she can bounce back here at her first appearance in town.

 

[FallingLiefs]

And this was the only one where it didn't salute. To be fair Sheidel looks to have run a close to PB in the wet on pace where it's on speed opponent scratched so no worries there. We may see the first two in Melbourne early next year.

0-2 -2.0 [11-28 -3.25]

r6 Northam - Bomber Bay @TT+

Head hurts and only done small amount of form this looks in well if it can make it out of the gates. Is a bet in play proposition.

0-3 -3.0 [11-29 -4.25]

r7 Geraldton - Danehill Matilda @$3

wrong price. lack of speed in race the only problem but rail in true and it might even lead. well above this lot

 

[iluvparis]

Sandown - Race 7 - 8.Auckland Beauty @ BT $4.60

3-5, +4.3

Canterbury - Race 2 - 1.Stampede @ BT

Relished the step up to 1400m with a dominant Maiden win last time out and being a High Chaparral he should really enjoy getting out to the 1900m here. Hopefully gets rated well in front and kicks away from them in the straight.

 

[FallingLiefs]

0-3 -3.0 [11-29 -4.25]

r7 Geraldton - Danehill Matilda @$3

wrong price. lack of speed in race the only problem but rail in true and it might even lead. well above this lot

1-3 -1.0 [12-29 -2.25]

r6 Bunbury - Sheerkat @$3.2 (WH/CB/TW)

been looking at this race since nominations come out. Helms gate first time 10 furlongs @ duritz and i think Sheerkat's a better horse full stop. Miss Gelana is the one im worried about. it's peak is just ahead of Sheerkat but its first up and the stable has a history of comical triallers so that doesnt bother me. yes, another staying race but i have no problems with horses of class that map forward in staying events. Interesting race regardless and i just don't want to miss this horse going through the grades.

 

[FallingLiefs]

1-3 -1.0 [12-29 -2.25]

r6 Bunbury - Sheerkat @$3.2 (WH/CB/TW)

been looking at this race since nominations come out. Helms gate first time 10 furlongs @ duritz and i think Sheerkat's a better horse full stop. Miss Gelana is the one im worried about. it's peak is just ahead of Sheerkat but its first up and the stable has a history of comical triallers so that doesnt bother me. yes, another staying race but i have no problems with horses of class that map forward in staying events. Interesting race regardless and i just don't want to miss this horse going through the grades.

1-4 -2.0 [12-30 -3.25]

Pike to good in the last few strides, he can lift a horse ok.

r7 Ascot - Express Dancer @1.9

Looks a good bet at the price. tracking to be an open horse off his last run which makes the first start odd, but first up so i can forgive. he may require hot speed in the race which he could get here but worth a bet at 1.9 anyway.

 

[iluvparis]

Canterbury - Race 2 - 1.Stampede @ BT $2.35

4-5, +5.65

Rosehill - Race 8 - 3.Dublin Lass @ BOB

Two huge runs to kick off this prep and has a race fitness advantage over most of her rivals here. In the top two 12 of her last 14 and just looks a super price here.

 

[iluvparis]

Rosehill - Race 8 - 3.Dublin Lass @ BOB

4-6, +4.65

Sha Tin - Race 8 - 2.Free Eagle @ $5.50

Claims to being one of the top 3 2000m horses on the planet and would be close to even money if this race was in Europe. Flogged Criterion and Gailo Chop at Ascot and was unlucky not to beat Golden Horn in Ireland (he'd be $1.20 here). Unless he has lost a log or hasn't traveled this is just ridiculous overs.

 

[FallingLiefs]

1-4 -2.0 [12-30 -3.25]

Pike to good in the last few strides, he can lift a horse ok.

r7 Ascot - Express Dancer @1.9

Looks a good bet at the price. tracking to be an open horse off his last run which makes the first start odd, but first up so i can forgive. he may require hot speed in the race which he could get here but worth a bet at 1.9 anyway.

i now rename this thread "the burning overs thread" 1.96 -> 1.55 and gets beaten by a cat but got absolutely K0'd. looked to nearly dislodge pike rounding the bend. couldn't touch it at the 1.55.

1-5 -3.0 [ 12-31 -4.25]

Sha Tin - Race 8 - 2.Free Eagle @UBET tote for the lolz.

same reasons as above. looks a standout on price.

 

[iluvparis]

Sha Tin - Race 8 - 2.Free Eagle @ $5.50

4-7, +3.65

Bairnsdale - Race 7 - 6.A Littlebitofclass @ BT

Looks the pick here despite the wide gate with a number of her stronger rivals already scratched. Has been solid since her Murtoa win 4 back and hopefully she can go one better than her second at Sale last time out.

 

[FallingLiefs]

last at ascot Dark Rhythm TF

 

[iluvparis]

Bairnsdale - Race 7 - 6.A Littlebitofclass @ BT

4-8, +2.65

Echuca - Race 7 - 2.Managem @ BT

Very lightly raced 5yo mare who has race fitness over key rivals having performed adequately in town first up. That was the first time she'd finished outside the top 2 in 4 starts to date and she should be ready to reach that level again here.