Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly + his 2020 contract

What would be an adequate trade for Tim Kelly?

  • Brad AND Steven Hill from Fremantle

    Votes: 3 2.6%
  • Someone from West Coast

    Votes: 9 7.9%
  • Two top-end draft picks

    Votes: 73 64.0%
  • Top-end draft pick and player

    Votes: 22 19.3%
  • Other (please specify) ______________

    Votes: 7 6.1%

  • Total voters
    114

eagle eyed

Team Captain
Nov 1, 2013
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As far from Freo as possible
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What you may find though ..is if Geelong get the feeling that they are not being treated fairly ..they will run the gauntlet ...with the underlying feeling that he will sign with us for another year rather than risk a draft outcome..
The comparison to a normal job is not clear... some may compare signing up to a organised business like the AFL is similar to joining the army.. and if the players join the afl and its systemsyou agree to be sent anywhere within that system.
No doubt Geelong could keep him if a deal can’t be done with another club. Surely it would be better for him to stay there than risk entering the draft. The only problem with your second point is that Tim has a contract with Geelong not the AFL, which I’m sure his manager will also be aware of when discussing his options.
 

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Turbocat

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No doubt Geelong could keep him if a deal can’t be done with another club. Surely it would be better for him to stay there than risk entering the draft. The only problem with your second point is that Tim has a contract with Geelong not the AFL, which I’m sure his manager will also be aware of when discussing his options.
The is a rumour deal that involves Petrochelli to Vic maybe Carlton that would probably give WC enough pick amunition to get it done. Time will tell.

My second point was not talking specifically about this instance but a vibe that is developing.. I could easily agree to a far loser system for players entry into the afl and movement but that would also allow push trade for players on their 2nd and 3rd contracts ..
What we have now is a player is forced into the draft but after that they have a strong say in where they are going but the club where they are at gets squeezed. This Kelly situation is an example that we dont have too often..doubt you would either but clubs like GC have to deal with it ever year...
Introduce push trades for value and it would help clubs get off the bottom imo.
 

MacStradbroke

Club Legend
Jul 19, 2015
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What you may find though ..is if Geelong get the feeling that they are not being treated fairly ..they will run the gauntlet ...with the underlying feeling that he will sign with us for another year rather than risk a draft outcome..
The comparison to a normal job is not clear... some may compare signing up to a organised business like the AFL is similar to joining the army.. and if the players join the afl and its systemsyou agree to be sent anywhere within that system.
I'm happy with the threat of the draft as a last resort. North and Saints will not let him past their picks. I have zero clue what the Eagles have to offer than this and next years first though. Two mediocre picks as they will be strong next year. I disagree with other posters, Kelly will kill it in the west.
 

CM9000

BigFooty Optimist
Aug 19, 2016
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You just can't offer a bloke $5M over 6 years and offer up ridiculous unders at the trade table for a second year running and try and hope the 'homesickness' card gets the trade over the line. 'Can't trade what you don't have' is just a piss weak excuse, either find it or move aside and let Freo complete a deal.
To get to West Coast he will need to be traded through a deal acceptable to Geelong. What Freo offers is relevant because it is at least a frame of reference for his trade value and will potentially be Kelly’s only pathway to “go home” if West Coast can’t satisfy Geelong.

We won’t see Tim and manager so silly to rule Freo out so early this time around.
It won't purely be a case of satisfying what you ask for, though. Geelong don't have all the leverage like last time - Tim's uncontracted, and that changes everything. If he nominates West Coast, then you only deal with us. Fremantle don't feature in the conversation because you no longer have the ability to hold him to contract.

And I'm not saying that's a reason for paying unders. We'll give you a fair deal, but the threat of going through the draft is an actual thing. Tim likely wouldn't be picked up by another team because, quite literally, it is a morally repugnant thing to do.
 

Turbocat

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It won't purely be a case of satisfying what you ask for, though. Geelong don't have all the leverage like last time - Tim's uncontracted, and that changes everything. If he nominates West Coast, then you only deal with us. Fremantle don't feature in the conversation because you no longer have the ability to hold him to contract.

And I'm not saying that's a reason for paying unders. We'll give you a fair deal, but the threat of going through the draft is an actual thing. Tim likely wouldn't be picked up by another team because, quite literally, it is a morally repugnant thing to do.
You guys have been drinking your own bathwater ... Repugnant? LOL... This is the AFL.This is not the strongest draft and obviously would not get to WC in it. The Suns might pick him up then he would be stuck at lower club. I doubt he gets much further than 3-5. However if no deal can be worked out ..he will stay here and sign a 1 year deal contract. The draft threat is like a drop bear to an american.

I love how every reasonble West Coast supporter comes here and say we will offer a fair deal..but if you dont accept he will go to the draft or what ever. This makes no sense.. its really an acceptance its only fair in your eyes. If you gave us a fair deal last year he would be a West Coast player now.. and yet you say we have less leverage now.. so suddenly you will offer a fair deal
 

Capriati

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
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I honestly think WCE decided last year to play the long game with the Kelly trade. They came with an offer last year, knowing that Geelong's bargaining power would be diminished this year as he is out of contract at the end of this year.
 

Strange Cat

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Sep 26, 2017
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It won't purely be a case of satisfying what you ask for, though. Geelong don't have all the leverage like last time - Tim's uncontracted, and that changes everything. If he nominates West Coast, then you only deal with us. Fremantle don't feature in the conversation because you no longer have the ability to hold him to contract.

And I'm not saying that's a reason for paying unders. We'll give you a fair deal, but the threat of going through the draft is an actual thing. Tim likely wouldn't be picked up by another team because, quite literally, it is a morally repugnant thing to do.
At least it won’t be as bad as letting half the list become meth addicts
 

Strange Cat

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Sep 26, 2017
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I honestly think WCE decided last year to play the long game with the Kelly trade. They came with an offer last year, knowing that Geelong's bargaining power would be diminished this year as he is out of contract at the end of this year.
So that’ll make WCE hard to trade with

No big shock then
 

STPer18

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Feb 12, 2017
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I honestly think WCE decided last year to play the long game with the Kelly trade. They came with an offer last year, knowing that Geelong's bargaining power would be diminished this year as he is out of contract at the end of this year.
Backfired spectacularly though because you missed out on an extra year of an AA caliber player + his value has only rose since. Oh dear. :drunk:
 

Capriati

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
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Backfired spectacularly though because you missed out on an extra year of an AA caliber player + his value has only rose since. Oh dear. :drunk:
We missed out on having him in our team this year. I reckon you will get the same or less than what we offered last year (which was a fair trade) on the basis that a) He is out of contract at the end of the year, and b) Your club will look like crap if you don't deal with us and keeping a guy in Victoria given his family needs support due to their situation.
 

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Strange Cat

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We missed out on having him in our team this year. I reckon you will get the same or less than what we offered last year (which was a fair trade) on the basis that a) He is out of contract at the end of the year, and b) Your club will look like crap if you don't deal with us and keeping a guy in Victoria given his family needs support due to their situation.
Yeah nah it’s not like we are not letting him go home to his home state, Timmy will just have to be a professional about it and realise the trade has to stratify us.

Still it’s kind of strange for WCE using the player’s welfare as a barometer for a club’s reputation considering they left half of their list become drug addicts......
 

Capriati

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
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Yeah nah it’s not like we are not letting him go home to his home state, Timmy will just have to be a professional about it and realise the trade has to stratify us.

Still it’s kind of strange for WCE using the player’s welfare as a barometer for a club’s reputation considering they left half of their list become drug addicts......
I'll let the bold part slide. It's been a tough weekend for you, I get that.

Basically, It's untenable for Geelong to keep Tim, he needs to come home. Tim has/will/may select West Coast as his destination club. As his current club, the onus is on Geelong to do what's in Tim's best interest and make the trade happen.
 

CM9000

BigFooty Optimist
Aug 19, 2016
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A bit like offering $5m over 6 years, but trading the same player for a sole 2nd rounder (late 30s pick).
It was actually 2 early second round picks (20 + 22) and a future second. I personally wish we had given you our future first as well, but unfortunately, I'm not the list manager.

You guys have been drinking your own bathwater ... Repugnant? LOL... This is the AFL.This is not the strongest draft and obviously would not get to WC in it. The Suns might pick him up then he would be stuck at lower club. I doubt he gets much further than 3-5. However if no deal can be worked out ..he will stay here and sign a 1 year deal contract. The draft threat is like a drop bear to an american.

I love how every reasonble West Coast supporter comes here and say we will offer a fair deal..but if you dont accept he will go to the draft or what ever. This makes no sense.. its really an acceptance its only fair in your eyes. If you gave us a fair deal last year he would be a West Coast player now.. and yet you say we have less leverage now.. so suddenly you will offer a fair deal
If you didn't keep changing what you wanted, it might've been done. In all honesty, you were never going to trade him to begin with. The point I'm making is that Tim being out of contract gives you a lot less leverage in trade talks, as what happens to any club with an uncontracted player wanting out - why do you think clubs have taken to trading players before they are OOC? Look at Wingard or Shiel. This all means that both you and us have to meet at the middle.

And taking Tim in the draft, if he went there, would be an incredibly immoral thing to do, for any club. We're talking about a player who needs to go home for family support, and wants to only to be in WA. If Geelong couldn't give him enough support, I'm not sure why any club thinks they could do better. Teams wouldn't be looking at him purely from a stand point of "what would make us better", they would be thinking "we would look like absolute pricks if we pick him up, and it's highly likely it won't work out". Clubs have to consider other things apart from their self interest.
 

Turbocat

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I honestly think WCE decided last year to play the long game with the Kelly trade. They came with an offer last year, knowing that Geelong's bargaining power would be diminished this year as he is out of contract at the end of this year.
Poor tactic now.. for the slight increase that was needed to get the deal done then.. you would have in your side now. It also wouldnt have taken into account his continual good form...
 

Strange Cat

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Sep 26, 2017
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I'll let the bold part slide. It's been a tough weekend for you, I get that.

Basically, It's untenable for Geelong to keep Tim, he needs to come home. Tim has/will/may select West Coast as his destination club. As his current club, the onus is on Geelong to do what's in Tim's best interest and make the trade happen.
No the onus is on WCE to find the suitable Trade that will get the trade done

If past history is be judge will find WCE once again going unders.
 

Strange Cat

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It was actually 2 early second round picks (20 + 22) and a future second. I personally wish we had given you our future first as well, but unfortunately, I'm not the list manager.



If you didn't keep changing what you wanted, it might've been done. In all honesty, you were never going to trade him to begin with. The point I'm making is that Tim being out of contract gives you a lot less leverage in trade talks, as what happens to any club with an uncontracted player wanting out - why do you think clubs have taken to trading players before they are OOC? Look at Wingard or Shiel. This all means that both you and us have to meet at the middle.

And taking Tim in the draft, if he went there, would be an incredibly immoral thing to do, for any club. We're talking about a player who needs to go home for family support, and wants to only to be in WA. If Geelong couldn't give him enough support, I'm not sure why any club thinks they could do better. Teams wouldn't be looking at him purely from a stand point of "what would make us better", they would be thinking "we would look like absolute pricks if we pick him up, and it's highly likely it won't work out". Clubs have to consider other things apart from their self interest.
Nice rant but we aren’t stopping Tim going back to WA , there are two clubs and that’s the reality

WCE are just trying to go unders by stealth, and it’s amusing watching you try and use his family situation as a leavrage in the trade....Pity you haven’t shown the same concerns for your previous list with their drug addictions.
 

Capriati

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Aug 25, 2019
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No the onus is on WCE to find the suitable Trade that will get the trade done

If past history is be judge will find WCE once again going unders.
If Kelly goes to the draft, no club except maybe Freo will touch him because it is clear that he needs to be in WA. He could end up as WCE and Geelong could miss out entirely. We will have to wait and see.
 

Strange Cat

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If Kelly goes to the draft, no club except maybe Freo will touch him because it is clear that he needs to be in WA. He could end up as WCE and Geelong could miss out entirely. We will have to wait and see.
If could maybes

Just stick with your own fantasies instead of running on here telling us what should happen...it’s clear that you want the trade to be on your terms and only on your terms.

Run along now
 

Mahlepi

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Mar 16, 2015
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If Kelly goes to the draft, no club except maybe Freo will touch him because it is clear that he needs to be in WA. He could end up as WCE and Geelong could miss out entirely. We will have to wait and see.
Excellent thoughts, he could up at freo so his misses could think about that whilst she watch stephen
 

Capriati

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Aug 25, 2019
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Everyone knows we'll never send Kelly to the draft, so unless Fremantle can sweet-talk the Kellys, or Kelly's manager can seriously play West Coast into a scare (which I don't think he can), we'll have to take what's on offer.

As opposed to other viewpoints, I don't think we have much leverage. West Coast play low-ball and we're above that sort of thing.
Agree with all of this, except the low balling. Geelong is being ridiculous with how much they are asking for a trade.
 

Capriati

Team Captain
Aug 25, 2019
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Excellent thoughts, he could up at freo so his misses could think about that whilst she watch stephen
So you can either deal with WCE and be reasonable about what you are willing to accept to make a trade happen, or Kelly goes to trade and ends up at either Freo or West Coast and Geelong get nothing.
 

JohnZ

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Mar 10, 2016
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So you can either deal with WCE and be reasonable about what you are willing to accept to make a trade happen, or Kelly goes to trade and ends up at either Freo or West Coast and Geelong get nothing.
We'd rather he go to Freo via the draft, then give him to a team in contention for peanuts.
 

Strange Cat

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 26, 2017
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Agree with all of this, except the low balling. Geelong is being ridiculous with how much they are asking for a trade.

So you can either deal with WCE and be reasonable about what you are willing to accept to make a trade happen, or Kelly goes to trade and ends up at either Freo or West Coast and Geelong get nothing.
Reasonable .....we put forth his worth if you can’t find the pics I’m sure Freo can

WCE just want him cheaply and won’t pay his worth ...that’s just the reality of it.
 

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