Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly + his 2020 contract

What would be an adequate trade for Tim Kelly?

  • Brad AND Steven Hill from Fremantle

    Votes: 6 4.3%

  • Someone from West Coast

    Votes: 11 7.8%

  • Two top-end draft picks

    Votes: 88 62.4%

  • Top-end draft pick and player

    Votes: 24 17.0%

  • Other (please specify) ______________

    Votes: 12 8.5%
  • Total voters
    141

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Ricketz said:
He clearly likes his footy at Geelong. We have cap space to match other suitors unless it is Dusty dollars. He won't go to the draft - it will be WA or stay with us, fair bet I reckon.
Click to expand...

I tend to think he wont risk the draft either but there are a lot of factors not least what his wife is happy with.
 

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I really can't see it coming to the draft now Freo is an option. Say freo ends the year with pick 8 in a thin-ish draft? 100% of the time they draft Tim no question.

But even further than that, Gold Coast are crying out for experienced elite midfielders, if I was in charge of the suns I would sack the list manager if they didn't draft him....
"He wants WA though!" you might mention....
well in his interviews with clubs they will ask him if he would want to play for them and he literally has to answer yes. Giving an unconvincing yes to the suns got Ben King a warning last year and after he was given the warning the suns drafted him anyway. I think the draft as an option for Tim to get to WA strikes me as not viable
 

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It could be time just to enjoy his footy this year.. Its nice to have a midfielder who is suited to the wide expanses of the MCG - he's going to be huge come September.
 
Kwality said:
I would like Kelly to stay at Geelong, IF you read the thread you'd know that - its Dangers interview that shed light on what happened & that reignited this discussion - the inane comments about West Coast chasing him through last year, lowballing Geelong, my mob is right/your mob is wrong, better suits your approach.
The body of evidence is not opinion & I challenge you to put up by listing this material & be sure to include the 'on the record' comments by both Danger & Scott.

I am pro mature age players & its great to be discussing a success story.
Click to expand...

I've read enough of the thread to know that you're beyond hopeless... and that replying is just a waste of my time. But let's have a little look. And God help me, refer to that one off the cuff comment by Dangerfield as gospel one more time and I will report your comment. Get a different source or stop posting about it.

Here are two slightly varying references for the deal West Coast were trying to get him in with next year. Draftee wage is locked in and cannot be varied by extension, so either way we know he was offered 650,000-700,000 odd per year by West Coast during the course of last year's season and they continued to pursue him on those terms during the trade period.

7 August 2018: 1.5 million over three years
https://outline.com/WTS3Wx

18 February 2019: 3 million over five years
https://outline.com/p4Gd7C

So we know that in money terms it was significantly higher than 400k. Offered that 700k/year to return home it should be pretty clear that TK would gladly have accepted terms likely quite similar to Geelong's offer. Let's look at the trade.

Wells asking for a top ten pick. Also mentions the WCE as reigning premiers might have reduced interest, but the fact that the entire trade period has ongoing negotiations to trade him makes it pretty clear that the interest was red hot throughout.

8 October 2018
https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/a...a-top-10-pick-for-tim-kelly-ng-b88984549z.amp

Here's clarity on the trade position, and the fact that it would be fought over while the trade window remained open - West Coast wanted him for two medium range picks, Geelong did not think this represented fair value.

October 15 2018


Another source for that a day later if you don't want Twitter as a reference

October 16 2018
https://www.tweeddailynews.com.au/news/geelong-declare-tim-kellys-trade-to-west-coast-/3550822/

Immediately after the trade fails to get up Brady Rawlings commented that

"The problem is Geelong rate him just as highly as we do," said West Coast list manager Brady Rawlings.
Click to expand...

Clearly not indicating any tempering of the interest that had been reported, either post premiership or Gaff retention.

October 18 2018
https://www.wellingtontimes.com.au/story/5710837/kellys-trade-bid-means-more-afl-scrutiny/

So let's dig into this offer. We know 20 and 22 were on the table from the start. We also know that West Coast's attempt to boost it to get the deal done was to include the sad trombone noise of your future second.

17 October 2018
https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl-tr...etener-into-tim-kelly-offer-ng-b88993436z.amp

Geelong were not satisfied with this wet fart of an offer - their request was for you to include at least one first round pick into the deal, through your future first. A pretty fair request considering you would have Buckley's chance of drafting a better player with said pick.

October 17 2018
https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/a...on-last-day-of-trade-period-ng-b88993188z.amp

17 October 2018
https://www.triplem.com.au/story/tim-kelly-fails-to-secure-a-trade-home-113666

Now to close off this deep dive let's get Chris Scott's thoughts on the whole matter, from more recently.

“It would’ve been an outstanding deal for them, an absolutely outstanding deal,” Scott told Talking Footy.
Click to expand...

Geelong regarded your deal as massive unders

“But the only reason it was entertained was that Tim wasn’t faking the fact that he wanted to leave was on compassionate grounds.
Click to expand...

But wanted to do the right thing by Tim and his family

“We thought we had an obligation to explore that as much as possible without putting the club at a big disadvantage.”
Click to expand...

The deal offered did not satisfy these criteria - it would have put the club at a big disadvantage.

2 April 2019
https://www.foxsports.com.au/api/v1...a/news-story/b9265ca367278dd0bdef138f189dca05

So, let's round off the facts

  1. West Coast pursued Tim throughout last year with at least a good money offer - 650-700k a year as soon as it was in their hands.
  2. They have stated repeatedly on record that they want him, behaviour that is supported by their repeated attempts to trade for him. They will try again.
  3. Geelong were open to trading Tim for the right deal. Top ten posturing aside, the difference came down to whether it was a future first or second on the table.
  4. Chris Scott is on the record publicly saying your offer was an attempt to rob Geelong blind
  5. Quote that single Patrick F Dangerfield interview that was clearly provided to be diplomatic and I will report your comment. Honestly I'm not even sure I want you to reply, here are the facts and it is simply not on me if you want to stick your fingers in your ears and go lalalalala as loudly as possible.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
There is an alternative if hes not prepared to risk the draft, thats what it hinges on.
Click to expand...

Im not sure what alternative you are referring to ..but I personally think he would sign again at Geelong (at a very good rate of course) rather than go to the draft and have the system play god with him again.

The key to a successful trade is having both sides in the same ball park on what he is worth ..and that the value is achievable. Its all well and good to say he is worth this or that.. in real terms he would be worth P1 but the practicalities of any trade are the destination club can only trade what they have or what they are willing or able to get.

If we look at what a destination club could give , then after that , its matter of convincing them to give it.
For it to be WC they have and could give 2019..R1 and Syd R2 .. 2020 R1. If WC finished the year as expected .. their R1's will be late P15 or later. To me their two R1's and a swap of our R2 with Syd is achievable. Its not what we would like but in the end I suspect we take it. In points it would be something around P2 ish depending on finish positions. It changes if they lose a player of quality for a high pick of course but till thats at least speculated its fanciful.
To get more in value we have to be willing to take a player. Who? no idea its stretch the thesis as a player has to agree. Does someone like Gaff and a pick satisfy us? We do have a preoccupation with the now and he was on the verge of coming back. Im sure there would be WC players willing but who we agree to..?

For it to be Freo they have and could give 2019..R1 and R2 .. 2020 R1 ..atpit their picks look less...but if Freo finish as expected their R1's will be better than WC , they may have a single figure R1 lets estimate ... P8 and P26. Id say if its Freo , and they have a single figure pick we would take R1's 2019 , 2020 and if required give something back. It changes and its more plausible that they could lose a player for a pick in the range of top 30..but top18 ? It just hopeful speculation. Who knows who that could be or how active Freo would be in encouraging it. It would be like us and Ottens and Moloney.
 
Turbocat said:
Im not sure what alternative you are referring to ..but I personally think he would sign again at Geelong (at a very good rate of course) rather than go to the draft and have the system play god with him again.

The key to a successful trade is having both sides in the same ball park on what he is worth ..and that the value is achievable. Its all well and good to say he is worth this or that.. in real terms he would be worth P1 but the practicalities of any trade are the destination club can only trade what they have or what they are willing or able to get.

If we look at what a destination club could give , then after that , its matter of convincing them to give it.
For it to be WC they have and could give 2019..R1 and Syd R2 .. 2020 R1. If WC finished the year as expected .. their R1's will be late P15 or later. To me their two R1's and a swap of our R2 with Syd is achievable. Its not what we would like but in the end I suspect we take it. In points it would be something around P2 ish depending on finish positions. It changes if they lose a player of quality for a high pick of course but till thats at least speculated its fanciful.
To get more in value we have to be willing to take a player. Who? no idea its stretch the thesis as a player has to agree. Does someone like Gaff and a pick satisfy us? We do have a preoccupation with the now and he was on the verge of coming back. Im sure there would be WC players willing but who we agree to..?

For it to be Freo they have and could give 2019..R1 and R2 .. 2020 R1 ..atpit their picks look less...but if Freo finish as expected their R1's will be better than WC , they may have a single figure R1 lets estimate ... P8 and P26. Id say if its Freo , and they have a single figure pick we would take R1's 2019 , 2020 and if required give something back. It changes and its more plausible that they could lose a player for a pick in the range of top 30..but top18 ? It just hopeful speculation. Who knows who that could be or how active Freo would be in encouraging it. It would be like us and Ottens and Moloney.
Click to expand...

Signing again here was the alternative yes. You are spot on with the rest.
 
Landgraft said:
I've read enough of the thread to know that you're beyond hopeless... and that replying is just a waste of my time. But let's have a little look. And God help me, refer to that one off the cuff comment by Dangerfield as gospel one more time and I will report your comment. Get a different source or stop posting about it.

Here are two slightly varying references for the deal West Coast were trying to get him in with next year. Draftee wage is locked in and cannot be varied by extension, so either way we know he was offered 650,000-700,000 odd per year by West Coast during the course of last year's season and they continued to pursue him on those terms during the trade period.

7 August 2018: 1.5 million over three years
https://outline.com/WTS3Wx

18 February 2019: 3 million over five years
https://outline.com/p4Gd7C

So we know that in money terms it was significantly higher than 400k. Offered that 700k/year to return home it should be pretty clear that TK would gladly have accepted terms likely quite similar to Geelong's offer. Let's look at the trade.

Wells asking for a top ten pick. Also mentions the WCE as reigning premiers might have reduced interest, but the fact that the entire trade period has ongoing negotiations to trade him makes it pretty clear that the interest was red hot throughout.

8 October 2018
https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/a...a-top-10-pick-for-tim-kelly-ng-b88984549z.amp

Here's clarity on the trade position, and the fact that it would be fought over while the trade window remained open - West Coast wanted him for two medium range picks, Geelong did not think this represented fair value.

October 15 2018


Another source for that a day later if you don't want Twitter as a reference

October 16 2018
https://www.tweeddailynews.com.au/news/geelong-declare-tim-kellys-trade-to-west-coast-/3550822/

Immediately after the trade fails to get up Brady Rawlings commented that



Clearly not indicating any tempering of the interest that had been reported, either post premiership or Gaff retention.

October 18 2018
https://www.wellingtontimes.com.au/story/5710837/kellys-trade-bid-means-more-afl-scrutiny/

So let's dig into this offer. We know 20 and 22 were on the table from the start. We also know that West Coast's attempt to boost it to get the deal done was to include the sad trombone noise of your future second.

17 October 2018
https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl-tr...etener-into-tim-kelly-offer-ng-b88993436z.amp

Geelong were not satisfied with this wet fart of an offer - their request was for you to include at least one first round pick into the deal, through your future first. A pretty fair request considering you would have Buckley's chance of drafting a better player with said pick.

October 17 2018
https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/a...on-last-day-of-trade-period-ng-b88993188z.amp

17 October 2018
https://www.triplem.com.au/story/tim-kelly-fails-to-secure-a-trade-home-113666

Now to close off this deep dive let's get Chris Scott's thoughts on the whole matter, from more recently.



Geelong regarded your deal as massive unders



But wanted to do the right thing by Tim and his family



The deal offered did not satisfy these criteria - it would have put the club at a big disadvantage.

2 April 2019
https://www.foxsports.com.au/api/v1...a/news-story/b9265ca367278dd0bdef138f189dca05

So, let's round off the facts

  1. West Coast pursued Tim throughout last year with at least a good money offer - 650-700k a year as soon as it was in their hands.
  2. They have stated repeatedly on record that they want him, behaviour that is supported by their repeated attempts to trade for him. They will try again.
  3. Geelong were open to trading Tim for the right deal. Top ten posturing aside, the difference came down to whether it was a future first or second on the table.
  4. Chris Scott is on the record publicly saying your offer was an attempt to rob Geelong blind
  5. Quote that single Patrick F Dangerfield interview that was clearly provided to be diplomatic and I will report your comment. Honestly I'm not even sure I want you to reply, here are the facts and it is simply not on me if you want to stick your fingers in your ears and go lalalalala as loudly as possible.
Click to expand...


 
Turbocat said:
Im not sure what alternative you are referring to ..but I personally think he would sign again at Geelong (at a very good rate of course) rather than go to the draft and have the system play god with him again.

The key to a successful trade is having both sides in the same ball park on what he is worth ..and that the value is achievable. Its all well and good to say he is worth this or that.. in real terms he would be worth P1 but the practicalities of any trade are the destination club can only trade what they have or what they are willing or able to get.

If we look at what a destination club could give , then after that , its matter of convincing them to give it.
For it to be WC they have and could give 2019..R1 and Syd R2 .. 2020 R1. If WC finished the year as expected .. their R1's will be late P15 or later. To me their two R1's and a swap of our R2 with Syd is achievable. Its not what we would like but in the end I suspect we take it. In points it would be something around P2 ish depending on finish positions. It changes if they lose a player of quality for a high pick of course but till thats at least speculated its fanciful.
To get more in value we have to be willing to take a player. Who? no idea its stretch the thesis as a player has to agree. Does someone like Gaff and a pick satisfy us? We do have a preoccupation with the now and he was on the verge of coming back. Im sure there would be WC players willing but who we agree to..?

For it to be Freo they have and could give 2019..R1 and R2 .. 2020 R1 ..atpit their picks look less...but if Freo finish as expected their R1's will be better than WC , they may have a single figure R1 lets estimate ... P8 and P26. Id say if its Freo , and they have a single figure pick we would take R1's 2019 , 2020 and if required give something back. It changes and its more plausible that they could lose a player for a pick in the range of top 30..but top18 ? It just hopeful speculation. Who knows who that could be or how active Freo would be in encouraging it. It would be like us and Ottens and Moloney.
Click to expand...

Cats will need to replace Kelly with a player in the midfield if he leaves so I wonder whether we will push for a “pick plus player” scenario rather than 2 picks? Get a young but ready to go mid like Cerra or Brayshaw. Clearly not in the same class as Kelly at the moment but at least someone to work with.
 
year of the cat said:
Cats will need to replace Kelly with a player in the midfield if he leaves so I wonder whether we will push for a “pick plus player” scenario rather than 2 picks? Get a young but ready to go mid like Cerra or Brayshaw. Clearly not in the same class as Kelly at the moment but at least someone to work with.
Click to expand...
Its all possible from our pov ... depending on our personal biases. We don't know what Wells and the team are thinking. This draft would seem to have mids galore ..id also consider more than just Cerra or Brayshaw... as much as their rep in their draft is high.. how do we know where Wells had them. He may rate a GWS kid like Caldwell better and trade for him. Have a look at a kid that just has not really had a chance at another club. He may think we take the picks to draft and its a chance to really add to the Clark foundation.. and try and find a Rohan. Is there a 2nd level player who could be an Atkins for us?
Premiums are rare ..and the idea we can replace one with another is just unlikely imo. We would need to be strategic and plan .. but that doesnt help us replace the kelly hole. Be nice if Kelly went , we bring in McLuggage ..but the system just doesnt work like that.
 
Turbocat said:
Its all possible from our pov ... depending on our personal biases. We don't know what Wells and the team are thinking. This draft would seem to have mids galore ..id also consider more than just Cerra or Brayshaw... as much as their rep in their draft is high.. how do we know where Wells had them. He may rate a GWS kid like Caldwell better and trade for him. Have a look at a kid that just has not really had a chance at another club. He may think we take the picks to draft and its a chance to really add to the Clark foundation.. and try and find a Rohan. Is there a 2nd level player who could be an Atkins for us?
Premiums are rare ..and the idea we can replace one with another is just unlikely imo. We would need to be strategic and plan .. but that doesnt help us replace the kelly hole. Be nice if Kelly went , we bring in McLuggage ..but the system just doesnt work like that.
Click to expand...

True. We could use a pick to target a player from another club such as Caldwell. GWS are probably the best club to target with their stockpile.
 
year of the cat said:
True. We could use a pick to target a player from another club such as Caldwell. GWS are probably the best club to target with their stockpile.
Click to expand...

They have lost players every year.. and will again..it depends on how we and teamwells rated them. To some degree ..one can see how easy it is to over estimate jr talent by the effect that the GWS players have had at Carlton. I think a Miers is closer to what you get than a kelly replacement.
 
Turbocat said:
They have lost players every year.. and will again..it depends on how we and teamwells rated them. To some degree ..one can see how easy it is to over estimate jr talent by the effect that the GWS players have had at Carlton. I think a Miers is closer to what you get than a kelly replacement.
Click to expand...

I'd be happy with that. We won't get a Kelly replacement lets face it. You brought up Caldwell's name. He'd be definitely worthy of consideration if available. But would cost a bit I'd say...
 
Landgraft said:
I've read enough of the thread to know that you're beyond hopeless... and that replying is just a waste of my time. But let's have a little look. And God help me, refer to that one off the cuff comment by Dangerfield as gospel one more time and I will report your comment. Get a different source or stop posting about it.

Here are two slightly varying references for the deal West Coast were trying to get him in with next year. Draftee wage is locked in and cannot be varied by extension, so either way we know he was offered 650,000-700,000 odd per year by West Coast during the course of last year's season and they continued to pursue him on those terms during the trade period.

7 August 2018: 1.5 million over three years
https://outline.com/WTS3Wx

18 February 2019: 3 million over five years
https://outline.com/p4Gd7C

So we know that in money terms it was significantly higher than 400k. Offered that 700k/year to return home it should be pretty clear that TK would gladly have accepted terms likely quite similar to Geelong's offer. Let's look at the trade.

Wells asking for a top ten pick. Also mentions the WCE as reigning premiers might have reduced interest, but the fact that the entire trade period has ongoing negotiations to trade him makes it pretty clear that the interest was red hot throughout.

8 October 2018
https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/a...a-top-10-pick-for-tim-kelly-ng-b88984549z.amp

Here's clarity on the trade position, and the fact that it would be fought over while the trade window remained open - West Coast wanted him for two medium range picks, Geelong did not think this represented fair value.

October 15 2018


Another source for that a day later if you don't want Twitter as a reference

October 16 2018
https://www.tweeddailynews.com.au/news/geelong-declare-tim-kellys-trade-to-west-coast-/3550822/

Immediately after the trade fails to get up Brady Rawlings commented that



Clearly not indicating any tempering of the interest that had been reported, either post premiership or Gaff retention.

October 18 2018
https://www.wellingtontimes.com.au/story/5710837/kellys-trade-bid-means-more-afl-scrutiny/

So let's dig into this offer. We know 20 and 22 were on the table from the start. We also know that West Coast's attempt to boost it to get the deal done was to include the sad trombone noise of your future second.

17 October 2018
https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl-tr...etener-into-tim-kelly-offer-ng-b88993436z.amp

Geelong were not satisfied with this wet fart of an offer - their request was for you to include at least one first round pick into the deal, through your future first. A pretty fair request considering you would have Buckley's chance of drafting a better player with said pick.

October 17 2018
https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/a...on-last-day-of-trade-period-ng-b88993188z.amp

17 October 2018
https://www.triplem.com.au/story/tim-kelly-fails-to-secure-a-trade-home-113666

Now to close off this deep dive let's get Chris Scott's thoughts on the whole matter, from more recently.



Geelong regarded your deal as massive unders



But wanted to do the right thing by Tim and his family



The deal offered did not satisfy these criteria - it would have put the club at a big disadvantage.

2 April 2019
https://www.foxsports.com.au/api/v1...a/news-story/b9265ca367278dd0bdef138f189dca05

So, let's round off the facts

  1. West Coast pursued Tim throughout last year with at least a good money offer - 650-700k a year as soon as it was in their hands.
  2. They have stated repeatedly on record that they want him, behaviour that is supported by their repeated attempts to trade for him. They will try again.
  3. Geelong were open to trading Tim for the right deal. Top ten posturing aside, the difference came down to whether it was a future first or second on the table.
  4. Chris Scott is on the record publicly saying your offer was an attempt to rob Geelong blind
  5. Quote that single Patrick F Dangerfield interview that was clearly provided to be diplomatic and I will report your comment. Honestly I'm not even sure I want you to reply, here are the facts and it is simply not on me if you want to stick your fingers in your ears and go lalalalala as loudly as possible.
Click to expand...

I get bored reading posts over three paras long.
Read every word of that.
*round of applause*
 
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