Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly

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Tony Barber

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Apr 6, 2017
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Sincere question.

If 20 months ago you were an apprentice electrician who was looking at a life of 80k p.a.
Then somehow magically became worth 800k p.a.
With 3 kids. A couple with health problems.
Living on the other side of the country from family.

How many of you wouldn't go home if it effectively meant you were doing the same job but just for a different company?
 

Goggin Our Best

Premiership Player
May 23, 2011
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Sincere question.

If 20 months ago you were an apprentice electrician who was looking at a life of 80k p.a.
Then somehow magically became worth 800k p.a.
With 3 kids. A couple with health problems.
Living on the other side of the country from family.

How many of you wouldn't go home if it effectively meant you were doing the same job but just for a different company?
Agree with all that - if he goes after 2 years service no problem

Where alot of supporters got pisssed off - was where he wanted out last year - after only 1 year - considering Geel drafted him - after he was overlooked in 5 consecutive drafts

He has had a very good year - however the acid test for him will be how he performs in big finals for Geel this year . His only final last year against Melb was an absolute shocker
 

wopdrn

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Lifted the following info from WCE Big Footy site.
I hope that the club keep an eye on other club's posts and that they are already aware of this kid.
We may be able to figure him into the Tim Kelly deal!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OMG Deven Robertson (Darren Glass's nephew) named captain of WA

https://www.wafl.com.au/player/deven-robertson

Man he is a ball magnet not much info around him. 37 possession and 36 possession colts.

http://www.wafootball.com.au/news/17230/robertson-named-wa-captain

31 possession in his national championship.
Forget Kelly, he’s the one we want.
Was hoping he would go under the radar
Was previously listed as a possible top 20 in draft but just our luck to see him in the top dozen
 

goyoucatters

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Sincere question.

If 20 months ago you were an apprentice electrician who was looking at a life of 80k p.a.
Then somehow magically became worth 800k p.a.
With 3 kids. A couple with health problems.
Living on the other side of the country from family.

How many of you wouldn't go home if it effectively meant you were doing the same job but just for a different company?
Depends how highly you think of your existing employer, I guess.

Cats can only do everything possible to make the GFC seem like the very best environment for TK to play his footy. I do agree that it's unlikely job satisfaction will beat 'location, location, location'. But it's pretty much all we've got to further our case at this stage.
 

Tony Barber

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Depends how highly you think of your existing employer, I guess.

Cats can only do everything possible to make the GFC seem like the very best environment for TK to play his footy. I do agree that it's unlikely job satisfaction will beat 'location, location, location'. But it's pretty much all we've got to further our case at this stage.
IF the employer I chose affected the next 40 - 50 years of my possible earn I'd be careful.

If it only affects my next 7 years then I really wouldn't care where I worked.
I.e. Industry status won't matter.
 

Turbocat

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Dec 10, 2003
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Lifted the following info from WCE Big Footy site.
I hope that the club keep an eye on other club's posts and that they are already aware of this kid.
We may be able to figure him into the Tim Kelly deal!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OMG Deven Robertson (Darren Glass's nephew) named captain of WA

https://www.wafl.com.au/player/deven-robertson

Man he is a ball magnet not much info around him. 37 possession and 36 possession colts.

http://www.wafootball.com.au/news/17230/robertson-named-wa-captain

31 possession in his national championship.
Forget Kelly, he’s the one we want.
Was hoping he would go under the radar
Was previously listed as a possible top 20 in draft but just our luck to see him in the top dozen
He will have to be drafted ..so really cant attach him to Kelly deal
 

Turbocat

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Sincere question.

If 20 months ago you were an apprentice electrician who was looking at a life of 80k p.a.
Then somehow magically became worth 800k p.a.
With 3 kids. A couple with health problems.
Living on the other side of the country from family.

How many of you wouldn't go home if it effectively meant you were doing the same job but just for a different company?
The only qualification I can think about to that is the sporting element .. sure if you are sweeping floors in geelong , sweeping floors in freo ..not a lot of difference ... where as playing within a sport enviorment brings all that into the calculation. He is OOC and my base line is OOC players generally should be able to choose where the choose to ply their trade..
 

Pure_Ownage

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Nov 26, 2008
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Sincere question.

If 20 months ago you were an apprentice electrician who was looking at a life of 80k p.a.
Then somehow magically became worth 800k p.a.
With 3 kids. A couple with health problems.
Living on the other side of the country from family.

How many of you wouldn't go home if it effectively meant you were doing the same job but just for a different company?
I would go home but i would never risk the draft to do it, as a parent of a 3yo with severe autism the biggest thing they struggle with is transition to new environments, while WA is probably preferable Geelong is now familar to the kids WA SA QLD etc isnt. I have no issues if they go home and nominate a club but if that club cant get it done then if they dont choose the 2nd WA club rather than risk the draft then they were never genuine about their reasons for going home IMO. If they handle it well i have no issues with it.
 

you pick one

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I would go home but i would never risk the draft to do it, as a parent of a 3yo with severe autism the biggest thing they struggle with is transition to new environments, while WA is probably preferable Geelong is now familar to the kids WA SA QLD etc isnt. I have no issues if they go home and nominate a club but if that club cant get it done then if they dont choose the 2nd WA club rather than risk the draft then they were never genuine about their reasons for going home IMO. If they handle it well i have no issues with it.
These are exceptional circumstances and although I supported the hard stand last year I would hope the Club would not force them to the draft now,Tim has carried himself magnificently up to date this season and it won't be his fault if we have to take unders for him,Geelong will get him home if that's his wish come season end.It's why we are among the most respected clubs in the comp and attract FA players on a regular basis,but I'm not telling anyone anything they don't already know about our great club.
 
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Pure_Ownage

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These are exceptional circumstances and although I supported the hard stand last year I would hope the Club would not force them to the draft now,Tim has carried himself magnificently up to date this season and it won't be his fault if we have to take unders for him,Geelong will get him home if that's his wish come season end.It's why we are among the most respected clubs in the comp and attract FA players on a regular basis,but I'm not telling anyone anything they don't already know about our great club.
We are a great club but we are still a club with a responsibility to its members we are bigger than one person. We wont force anyone to somewhere they want to be unless they choose it. I just find it interesting that they needed to be home for family reasons last year yet refused to talk to Freo which probably would have got them home. Now they may have done this because they knew they could try again in 12 months and they preferred to waitfor their no1 choice rather than pick no2. But that option is now gone he has to sign a 5 year deal somewhere this year and will. If WCE cant or wont offer fair value if they are genuine about their reasons they will pick Freo (no matter what issues caitlin has with freo) bc it might not be what either of them wants but its better for their kids than the uncertainty of a long drawn out draft process. I say this as someone who was in the same position and chose a job i loved less on less money so i didnt have to move my kid to an entirely new place that hed never been bc i knew ASD kids struggle to have the emotional resilience to cope with that sort of change. It will be interesting to see what choice they make and how, i know we will do all we can to help them get home if they want but we are only one party in the negotiation we cant sort it unless the other parties meet us halfway.
 

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Max Milburn

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We are a great club but we are still a club with a responsibility to its members we are bigger than one person. We wont force anyone to somewhere they want to be unless they choose it. I just find it interesting that they needed to be home for family reasons last year yet refused to talk to Freo which probably would have got them home. Now they may have done this because they knew they could try again in 12 months and they preferred to waitfor their no1 choice rather than pick no2. But that option is now gone he has to sign a 5 year deal somewhere this year and will. If WCE cant or wont offer fair value if they are genuine about their reasons they will pick Freo (no matter what issues caitlin has with freo) bc it might not be what either of them wants but its better for their kids than the uncertainty of a long drawn out draft process. I say this as someone who was in the same position and chose a job i loved less on less money so i didnt have to move my kid to an entirely new place that hed never been bc i knew ASD kids struggle to have the emotional resilience to cope with that sort of change. It will be interesting to see what choice they make and how, i know we will do all we can to help them get home if they want but we are only one party in the negotiation we cant sort it unless the other parties meet us halfway.
They've been living in Geelong for one and a half years now.
It might be more of an upheaval for the kids moving back to WA by now.
 

Turbocat

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We are a great club but we are still a club with a responsibility to its members we are bigger than one person. We wont force anyone to somewhere they want to be unless they choose it. I just find it interesting that they needed to be home for family reasons last year yet refused to talk to Freo which probably would have got them home. Now they may have done this because they knew they could try again in 12 months and they preferred to waitfor their no1 choice rather than pick no2. But that option is now gone he has to sign a 5 year deal somewhere this year and will. If WCE cant or wont offer fair value if they are genuine about their reasons they will pick Freo (no matter what issues caitlin has with freo) bc it might not be what either of them wants but its better for their kids than the uncertainty of a long drawn out draft process. I say this as someone who was in the same position and chose a job i loved less on less money so i didnt have to move my kid to an entirely new place that hed never been bc i knew ASD kids struggle to have the emotional resilience to cope with that sort of change. It will be interesting to see what choice they make and how, i know we will do all we can to help them get home if they want but we are only one party in the negotiation we cant sort it unless the other parties meet us halfway.
As usual .. an interesting post PO.

There is alway personal tastes and preferences that come into it. It seems these days its like its sacrilege or a personal afront that someone may like something others don't. .so while they were highly motivated to go back to WA last year , they were also motivated to go to a specific club... for what ever reason.. call it preference/taste what ever. The spin at that point fall apart... you cant say its all about go home then... really they should have just said ..id like to play for that clubs... but its a bit harder on your rep.

We basically know there are legit off-field reasons to return.. but not many fro the specific destination. Mostly every thing given as a reason on here that I have read is speculation and rumour so ..id just say its their preference for whatever reason. Maybe they didn't like purple last year. That may change ...or not. Maybe its coach and playing style? What makes that preference and how really fringe it seems is really immaterial to others who may say I could do this or that ( not be specific on your example here) .. but thats not them. Read GoldCoast board or other interstate and thre is a tendance to deride players who want to leave.. sort of like I like it here ..they should too. About as relavant as I like Brussell Sprouts ..not many do etc. I might wonder.. if Freo and WC were basically like Carlton or Gold Coast would there be such a keenness to get back? Who knows and not really really important.

As I have said often .. a player out of contract imo should almost be a free agent anyway.. people wonder why there is go home.. its mainly to do with having no choice at the start. How many of the best kids from last year would have gone to the clubs they are at now if they had Father Sons type choices?
Kelly has been dudded by the AFL system in certain respects. If the Krueger type picks has been in, would WC have tried to do that to get him to their clubs? Even if we say the Draft is an unavoidable necessity ... if player has been passed over 3-, 4, 5 times imo .. they should be able to be considered like delisted FA's imo.

Your personal example is interesting PO ... Id say we may actually offer money to stay at job he actually seems to like I think Geelong have a 1 year offer on the table to try to get one more year out of him... I wonder what sort of money it would take to accept and play with the top side. Just what is the fine print details of the Josh Kelly contract option. If its the break a leg security that TK wants .why not something like that? In the end maybe they just would prefer to be back home before getting too settled.. when does school start for them etc.

In the end I believe a deal will be done. WC will either use their R1 and FR1 ..or R1 and Syd R2 ... or maybe they add a player or maybe they lose a player and get another R1.. maybe they almost have to lose a player after keeping gaff to fit him in? A lot of maybes.
But he will get to where he wants to be... the AFL would hate to see a bun fight over it.. and we will be pros get it done and move on.
 

Turbocat

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Not getting cheaper or easier .....

https://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/sport/afl/afl-2019-why-tim-kelly-is-set-for-the-greatest-pay-rise-in-afl-history-wherever-he-plays-in-2020/news-story/aa3b5ea421affa46662d8f2e1fe5a698

Emerging Geelong superstar Tim Kelly is set for “the greatest pay rise” in AFL history, according to a former Brownlow medallist, and he may now be worth two top ten draft picks in a trade.
The future home for Kelly remains unclear. The Cats are very keen to keen the Brownlow Medal fancy, but after two years away from home in Western Australia with a young family he may move either to West Coast or Fremantle.

But whatever happens, the mature-aged draftee is set for a massive payday, according to Gerard Healy.

“He’s going to get the greatest pay rise of any person in the competition ever, I suspect,” he told 3AW’s Sportsday.

“From about $250,000 to somewhere north or south of a million bucks.”

The Cats last year rejected the Eagles’ trade offer which was worth the equivalent of Pick 2 on the AFL Draft Value index. But Kelly has only grown in value since then.

....

That could mean if Geelong does trade the midfield gun, it could receive multiple first round picks in return.

“Two first round picks went from the Bombers for Dylan Shiel. That’s a starting point,” Healy said.


AFL great Leigh Matthews suggested that, with Kelly “the best performed player in the game” right now - and being just 24 years old - he is worth two top ten draft picks.
 

fpm84

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Interesting development....

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/cats-get-creative-in-effort-to-keep-kelly-20190612-p51x31.html

The Age can reveal Geelong have offered the scintillating midfielder a creative one year deal, with triggers for a future year, worth more than $800,000 that could only be eclipsed by Brownlow medallist Patrick Dangerfield, inspirational captain Joel Selwood and powerhouse forward Tom Hawkins.

If Kelly accepts the deal, he will become the highest earning third year player to stay at their club in the history of the game.
“What we’ve offered is significant and we’re hoping it’s enough to stay,” Geelong’s list manager Stephen Wells told The Age.

West Coast, Fremantle and the Cats remain in a three-way tug of war for him but Geelong remain confident that their creative 1+1-year proposal will be enough to retain the mature-aged recruit.

While the club would and has offered Kelly a longer term contract, it’s understood that initial offer didn’t sit well with the player, as he continues to wrestle with the prospect of returning to his home state and managing his family’s expectations.
 

cats_09

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CHAMPION DATA'S BROWNLOW PREDICTOR

After 12 Rounds
1. Tim Kelly (Geelong) 16 votes
2. Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) 14.9
3. Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) 14.5
4. Patrick Cripps (Carlton) 13.6
5. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide) 13
6. Lachie Neale (Brisbane) 13
7. Adam Treloar (Collingwood) 11.6
8. Rory Sloane (Adelaide) 11.6
9. Josh Kelly (GWS) 10.4
10. Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood) 10.1

Leigh Matthews said Kelly was clearly the best player in the competition at the moment.

“The coaches rate their own players and what they’ve done for their team, and the opposition players for how hard they’ve been to play against. So I always rate the coaches’ award,” Matthews said on 3AW.

“On that basis, you could say after Round 12, Tim Kelly’s been the best performed player in the game.

“Let’s face it, you wouldn’t swap him for (this year’s) No.1 pick, would you? I wouldn’t. He’s (24), so you wouldn’t swap him for an 18 year old who might be as good as Tim Kelly - yeah, you might get an extra five years - but he might not be anywhere near as good.

“If it was an independent panel doing the (trade), it’d be about Pick 1 and Pick 10, I reckon.”

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/brownlow-medal-2019-tim-kelly-the-midseason-leader-on-champion-data-predictor/news-story/91bcbcd87debee2ec7b62bf69a128a31
 

foxdog50

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Gee the Tim Kelly thread on the Trades thread is becoming a joke in what West Coast fans are offering... " Take what we give you or get nothing when a trade is not done and we will pick him up in the draft for nothing"..
 

Strange Cat

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Not that crap again.

They slow, stupid, or both?
Just the sane inane drivel from them over and over you can’t have a logical conversation with them

And if by some miracle the club accepts a low offer you know that the supporters will gleefully turn around and rub it in to us.

Richmond level of arrogance
 

Cataholic

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Just the sane inane drivel from them over and over you can’t have a logical conversation with them

And if by some miracle the club accepts a low offer you know that the supporters will gleefully turn around and rub it in to us.

Richmond level of arrogance
How is it that they so arrogantly believe they can dictate the terms?

I get they're latching on to who's driving the move, but still, they've got to do business with the GFC no matter what.

And I'll be bloody annoyed if the club takes anything less than what's due. Yes, I feel compassionate for his circumstances, but business is business.
 
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Turbocat

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Gee the Tim Kelly thread on the Trades thread is becoming a joke in what West Coast fans are offering... " Take what we give you or get nothing when a trade is not done and we will pick him up in the draft for nothing"..
Some posters take the team bias to lengths that run outside the guiderails the clubs would use with each other. No club want to godown that path.. such as WC offering a meaningless pick etc.. it would create a bodyline type mentality.. where sure they win a series but now other countries will do it to us...

Geelong will not get what it wants or what they value him at ..but West Coast or Freo will end up paying much more than some of their fans think or post for reaction.

Does West Coast want 10 Vic clubs picking over any Vic they draft encouraging no contract extensions so they can pirate their players? No . Does the AFL want a player who has only 2 years ago submitted to the draft be forced into it again? No.

Id be happy enough to look at a new paradigm where all players are FA when uncontracted ..thats a different discussion.
 
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Cold Sober

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What happens if he wins the Brownlow.
 
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