Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Spearman

Club Legend
Sep 15, 2017
1,275
1,875
expatriated in East Asia
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Ohio State Buckeyes
I don't know what is allowable or customary in AFL trading, but here is scenario from way outside the box.
To me if TK continues on his present trajectory he should be worth the equivalent of a best 22 player or 2 very high picks. But it looks like GFC will neither get 2 actual first round picks(to me that is a pick before any club has picked twice at minimum), nor a ready to play best 22 player. So possibly we get 2 picks somewhere in the first~second round range which would be unders for such an influential player. So what if the AFL kicks in another pick, call it compensation or 'priority' pick. There's probably no protocol for this at the moment, but the AFL can and will do whatever they feel like. So my question is; now with 3 highish picks can GFC bundle them in someway into a swap for an actual top ten pick or more? Basically using an AFL conjured high pick to seed some creative trading. More than likely completely ridiculous, but the situation might need some creativity to satisfy each party some.
 

Boxhead_31

Rompinwins is my Chauffeur
Oct 12, 2007
32,789
42,433
This Drinking Team has a Football Problem
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
South BHFL, 49ers
I don't know what is allowable or customary in AFL trading, but here is scenario from way outside the box.
To me if TK continues on his present trajectory he should be worth the equivalent of a best 22 player or 2 very high picks. But it looks like GFC will neither get 2 actual first round picks(to me that is a pick before any club has picked twice at minimum), nor a ready to play best 22 player. So possibly we get 2 picks somewhere in the first~second round range which would be unders for such an influential player. So what if the AFL kicks in another pick, call it compensation or 'priority' pick. There's probably no protocol for this at the moment, but the AFL can and will do whatever they feel like. So my question is; now with 3 highish picks can GFC bundle them in someway into a swap for an actual top ten pick or more? Basically using an AFL conjured high pick to seed some creative trading. More than likely completely ridiculous, but the situation might need some creativity to satisfy each party some.
No chance that will happen
 

Cold Sober

Premiership Player
Sep 28, 2016
3,115
3,180
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Man U .White Sox;Storm,Victory
No good negotiating with an agent unless it's his missus. Mumma bear goes Poppa bear follows.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

JohnZ

Club Legend
Mar 10, 2016
2,422
2,827
AFL Club
Geelong
Now Ralph has penned an article saying we might be offering 5x1 year deals
Paywalled so just going by Jon's twitter
full article: https://outline.com/K7Lm9U
text:
Geelong and Tim Kelly’s management are exploring radical deals that could see him handed long-term security but still able to ask for a trade mid-contract.

Kelly’s manager Anthony van der Wielen told the Herald Sun he was still unsure whether his client would ask for a trade at year’s end.

But he has asked Cats list manager Stephen Wells to work on some creative alternatives that could allow Kelly to stay for next year but not be fully tied into a four or five-year deal.

For instance Kelly might be offered the security of a five-year contract that allows him to leave at any time.

In effect it would be structured as a one-year deal for 2020 then four more one-year deals on triggers he can approve that provide guaranteed money.

Or the Cats might offer an initial two-year deal with three further one-year deals which Kelly can agree to commit to as his contract progresses.

Van Der Wielen is determined to secure his client some financial security in a sporting landscape where NBA star Kevin Durant tore his achilles this week, putting in jeopardy massive free agency offers.

He has not yet committed to staying at Geelong but as negotiations stagnated he is looking for left-field solutions that might allow him to remain.

Those kind of left-field deals would have to be approved by the AFL’s salary cap guru Ken Wood, who showed more leniency in the Josh Kelly contract at GWS this year.

He has a two-year contract with a six-year trigger that is almost certain to be enacted unless the bottom falls out of the Giants.

Despite reports of an $800,000 price tag, he said the club hadn’t even put figures to him yet as they worked through the types of deals he could sign.

West Coast and Fremantle continue to make clear how interested they are in a player leading the AFL Coaches Association award from stars like Patrick Cripps and Patrick Dangerfield.

“To a certain extent Tim has to make up his mind what he wants to do and that will be predicated by what offers come forward,” van der Wielen said.

“It won’t just be about money, it will be about family first and we will see what happens.”

“I can’t tell you if he is staying at Geelong or coming home but we really don’t know. It will come down to what is on offer and what it means for Tim’s family.”

“We are really just talking a framework. How can we get creative and what would it mean for a commitment. It is really just talking very openly and honestly about what are our options.”

In commercial real estate owners have to offer minimum terms — often five years — to their clients which they can then take up one year at a time.

The Kelly family is not in a position to accept a four or five year deal but if they have some comfort about asking for a trade at some stage might still stay.
 

Turbocat

Premium Platinum
Dec 10, 2003
37,540
33,747
Newtown
AFL Club
Geelong
Without wanting to be too optimistic, if Kelly is asking his manager to explore these type of deals it would indicate a preparedness to stay at Geelong for at least one, maybe two further seasons. You’d take that.
I think it indicates how much he enjoys playing in our group , and would like a bailout if the WA sides can not satisfy Geelong. He will not be going into a draft situation ..and at the very least ..it means the trade situations tilts marginally our way. Both WA side would now know ..no more one man bands for the concert ... they need to bring all the brass and all the strings and all choir ... and it all better be in tune.
 

Mad_Hatter

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 12, 2015
8,300
15,388
AFL Club
Geelong
That deal makes it sounds oh so very juicy for TK, allows him to still play with the group he loves and push for success, guarantees long term security but also allows him to return home whenever he wants.
For the club that could effectively lock away TK for 5 years but it after 2 years he wants to go we hold the upper hand as he'd be contracted.
Assuming his family situation is far more settled now than it was 12 months ago I believe that's as close to a perfect win/win scenario as you can get.
Especially if it's 800-900k a year type of deal, with performance triggers on top.
 

Down at K Park

Norm Smith Medallist
May 18, 2016
6,150
10,150
AFL Club
Geelong
He needs to consider his career has a pretty short lifespan, after coming in as a middle ager. He might only have 6-7 years left and then he can move wherever he wants and is probably set up financially for life.
 

Gogeelong

Premiership Player
Apr 14, 2006
3,892
2,008
melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
There is no way you would swap Kelly for pick 1 and say a late first rounder next year.
That means you end up with 2 untried players in exchange for a potential Brownlow medalist and possibly the most highly ranked player in the league.

How does his value compare to Coniglio??
 

cats_09

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 21, 2011
11,965
21,227
AFL Club
Geelong
Champion Data has Kelly & Danger as 1 & 2 for current Brownlow votes, and predicts then to finish 1 & 3 - if their predictions are close to correct its going to be tightly fought on the night

Champion Data has predicted Kelly to finish the 2019 Brownlow count on 29.3 votes, with Patrick Dangerfield on track to record 28.4 votes.

Fremantle captain and 2015 winner Nat Fyfe, in Champion Data’s estimations, would split the Cats duo on 29 votes.
 

Grimoz

Premiership Player
Feb 28, 2011
4,955
7,741
Shhh...its a secret!!!
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Manchester Utd, New York Rangers
AFL 2019: Geelong confirms it has put ‘significant’ offer to Tim Kelly as race for signature heats up

Geelong is being creative to give itself the best chance of retaining Brownlow Medal fancy Tim Kelly — and it could lead to one of the game’s most radically flexible long-term deals yet.
Kelly, out of contract at the end of the year, has yet to make a call on what he’ll do come season’s end after his wish to be traded home to WA and join West Coast last October wasn’t granted. It means a three-way tussle between the Eagles, Cats and Dockers for Kelly’s services in 2020 looms.
But Cats list manager Stephen Wells on Wednesday night confirmed the club had already put an offer to Kelly. The Agereported it was a unique one-year deal, with a trigger to include a second season.

“What we’ve offered is significant and we’re hoping it’s enough to stay,” Wells told The Age.
“Everyone’s got their own circumstances, but we’d be silly not to be creative in our thinking in order to keep a good player like Tim Kelly.”
The same report said the deal, if accepted, would see Kelly’s salary increase to $800,000 in 2020, which would put him among the four highest paid Geelong players.
It would be a significant wage increase for Kelly, who as a second-year player has a base salary of $100,000, as well as $4000 for each game he plays, in 2019.

The Age also reported Geelong had put a longer term offer to Kelly — which reportedly didn’t sit well with the player as he ponders the prospect of returning home to WA — prior to the recent one-year offer.
But Kelly’s manager Anthony van der Wielen told the Herald Sun the Cats were yet to put official figures to him, saying parties were “really just talking a framework”.
“How can we get creative and what would it mean for a commitment. It is really just talking very openly and honestly about what are our options,” van der Wielen said.
The Herald Sun reported Kelly’s management had asked the Cats to work on a unique contract that would provide the midfielder with long-term security but flexibility to request a trade during the middle of his contract.

That could mean a one-year contract with up to four one-year deal triggers — a contract that would need to be ticked off by the AFL’s total player payments guru Ken Wood, who gave Josh Kelly’s unprecedented new deal at the Giants earlier this year the green light.
Amid a star-studded Geelong list, Tim Kelly, 24, has been a revelation for the Cats since being taken with Pick 24 in the 2017 draft.
Kelly, who hasn’t missed an AFL game since being drafted, currently leads both the AFL Coaches’ Association Player of the Year award and Champion Data’sBrownlow predictor.
This season, he’s averaged booted 10 goals, averaged 26.6 disposals and ranked among the league’s top 10 for clearances per game.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2019-geelong-confirms-it-has-put-significant-offer-to-tim-kelly-as-race-for-signature-heats-up/news-story/c9901266976f8d4f509ca8d30dc818e0
 

TheWoodenSlug

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 24, 2008
5,478
10,498
AFL Club
Geelong
On the assumption that his option to leave early would be limited to WCE or Freo, what's the difference from the Tippett Case?
I think with Tippett, the agreement to trade him was made outside of his contract i.e. hidden from the AFL (along with extra payments). I imagine as long as we present the Kelly arrangement in full to old Uncle Steve and get the AFL's tick of approval, we should be fine.
 
Top Bottom