Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly + his 2020 contract

What would be an adequate trade for Tim Kelly?

  • Brad AND Steven Hill from Fremantle

    Votes: 6 4.3%
  • Someone from West Coast

    Votes: 11 7.8%
  • Two top-end draft picks

    Votes: 88 62.4%
  • Top-end draft pick and player

    Votes: 24 17.0%
  • Other (please specify) ______________

    Votes: 12 8.5%

  • Total voters
    141
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Feb 21, 2007
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I am sure they could fit him in, but I reckon it would be tight. Isn't McGovern on one of the best contracts in the league?
Gaff, Shuey, Nic Nat, Kennedy, Darling, Yeo and Hurn, I would struggle to believe anyone of these guys is under 700k a year. Sheppard just signed a 5 year deal so I assume that would be half decent.
So signing a player that is surplus to requirements for 500k seems unnecessary to me.

The simple cold hard reality is as a football and business decision, and if I were Kelly's manager, all roads to WA are on the purple brick road.
 

Duskfire

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I hope Freo drastically improve and look more attractive to Kelly. The only way Geelong win here is if Kelly becomes open to the idea being traded to either of the two and Geelong takes best offer.

I still find it incredibly galling and somewhat disrespectful that Kelly would dictate terms after one season to a club that gave him a chance. But maybe that’s just the bias Geelong supporter taking and anyone would do the same in his position.
 
Dec 10, 2003
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Only Willie not from WA, Liam Ryan is from Geraldton like Harry Taylor.
Willie is from the Tiwis, boarded in Ballarat, drafted from SA ... chasing his footy dream.

By the bye, Polly lived in the same street as my family before he was enticed to sleepy hollow - yeh, I'm old. saw my first VFL game at Kardinia Park.

So you know who im talking about re Marshall. We have like WA for years.. missed on some like Michael got some past their best like Peake but had some wonderful players and most were happy enough here. Our best ever WA player would be one heck of a thread.

So if a trade is to happen for Kelly ..whats your handle on whats the likely outcome.. picks or player..if so which players
 
If a player wants to leave you show them the door but that doesn't mean letting first year draftees go for nothing. This is just about bargaining position and closing the loop on the Luke Ball scenario. If you block them from the draft for 12 months the player has incentive to ensure that the trade he's asking for is feasible. It doesn't stop anyone asking for any trade, it just transfers some risk away from the club to the one with the power to initiate a trade. Right now players can demand trades but bear little of the risk that a fair trade isn't offered

I agree you but it won't happen the AFLPA has too much power to let that be rolled back and the afl wont challenge them.
 

Farmer2Goggin

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Thats why the didn’t go that hard at him imo. They only want him if they can get him in a cheap trade. They don’t really need him but they would take him if it costs them bugger all.

Tim needs a reality check here. I can see them offering a second round pick for him and nothing more. Especially if tim goes backwards.

Sadly I think you are right , probably a second round pick which is probably #30+ , not inspiring :(
Ideally he stays but if he goes to them I'd try hard for Venables - I rate him but he's had limited opportunities with their mids so could be under valued
Either him or Brander in preference for a second round pick IMO
 
My feeling is it's only Geelong and WC in the running,I think back to Tippett and his push to get from the Crows to Swans,he breaches AFL rules and was sent to the draft and every other club backed off him and allowed him to get to the club of his choice anyway.Froe won't waste anymore time on Kelly imo.

Tippett was a very different situation bc the revelations came to light after the trade period meaning all other clubs had already done their contracts and didnt have the cap $ to fit him in (only Sydney did due to COLA). Freo have all year to plan their salary cap around having enough cap room to take Kelly if he puts himself in the draft with a price on his head. Very different situation. I doubt he can discourage them. I think he will either get to WCE in a trade or Freo if he goes in the draft.
 
Sadly I think you are right , probably a second round pick which is probably #30+ , not inspiring :(
Ideally he stays but if he goes to them I'd try hard for Venables - I rate him but he's had limited opportunities with their mids so could be under valued
Either him or Brander in preference for a second round pick IMO

Venables is vastly overrated.

Brander would be useful.
 
Could you imagine if players could get traded up to and including the draft. In this situation it could happen as a player has already signalled an intent to move.

Just to be clear ..you think he ends up at Freo? I think he will end up at WC if he is traded ..as I dont think the deal will fall over.

I think we will have a long term deal ready for him all year.
I think either WCE will cough up 80 % of what we want (you never get 100 % in these scenarios) and if they do we will trade him there or if they lowball we will baulk.
I expect Freo and Geelong will offer long term deals so if WCE stuff it up i think his partner will get over her issues with the Hills and choose 5 years at Freo over 5 years at Geelong or the uncertainty of the draft.
We are all guessing but thats my educated guess on it.
 
Dec 10, 2003
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I wonder if someone has said to him..his best chance of a great outcome at years end is to play as good or better than last year....


https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...e/news-story/e4af3e1b28581a5de85c5663fd2e1094
Geelong star Tim Kelly opens up about his future

Geelong midfield star Tim Kelly says he is “100 per cent committed” to the Cats this season, but admits he is unsure whether he will be at the club next year.
Kelly, whose future will again be a talking point all year, said his focus was solely on helping deliver Geelong a premiership in 2019, confident he can improve on his breakout season.

Out-of-contract at the end of the season, Kelly, who has three young children with partner Caitlin Miller, said he had “loved every second” of his second year so far at the Cats.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...e/news-story/e4af3e1b28581a5de85c5663fd2e1094
 

foxdog50

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A contracted player is restricted .. a non contracted player is less restricted... but having already gone thru the process of being drafted to a club they did not have any choice about I can see the fairness in a player wanting that choice. Like it or not players have far more control now over where they play. There would be very few clubs that would be willing to agree to 4 year contracts for drafted players.. look at the players geelong have drafted recently ..a lot of them a long shots. Should we give Buzza 4 year after his drafting or Simpson or whoever?

If a player is happy , they generally stay. Should we force unhappy players to stay where they are not happy? Id say if a club can not convince a player to stay after 2 years they probably have to trade and let him go.
I'm not saying the as players get a 4 year contracted, I'm saying they still shouldn't be able to pick where they go after 1 or 2 years of been drafted.. yes they are restricted but at the end of the the day the player will get where they want to go and they shouldn't..
 
Aug 14, 2011
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So you know who im talking about re Marshall. We have like WA for years.. missed on some like Michael got some past their best like Peake but had some wonderful players and most were happy enough here. Our best ever WA player would be one heck of a thread.

So if a trade is to happen for Kelly ..whats your handle on whats the likely outcome.. picks or player..if so which players

Chase one of the kids, dont blame West Coast for not wanting to flick someone from an against the odds premiership squad ... neither club could get the deal done ..... dont think either club was unreasonable. 2019 will change the moving parts.
Venables would be the prime target as of today, but he'll have double his number of games played & who knows??
 
Hands up those who think Kelly already knows the W/C offer.
I doubt W/C have a firm offer on the table - sure they would like him, but they are not desperate for him and they would be doing well to keep their current premiership squad happy as a priority. If Kelly has second year blues or another WA gun wants to head back to Perth, expect W/C to go totally cold. If there is room left over for Kelly all the better, but there is no way they will pay true value, never mind over the odds. That is not a criticism on W/C, just the reality of where they are at the moment.
 

foxdog50

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Like I said a player shouldn't be able to choose a club after 2 years of been drafted.... What's the point of a club picking a player who invest in that player then after 2 years they say they want to go home... When a player like Ablett and Dangerfield gave there previous clubs a good solid service, when a player like Kelly, Setterfield Caddy want to leave a club after 2 years... Talking to a ex captain of Bulldogs who I'm great mates with said it drives him nuts hearing players want to go to a new club after 1 or 2 years of service..
If Duncan said he wanted to go back to WA now I don't have any problems at all as his given Cats 10 years of service ( which I'd want him to stay )
 
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Chase one of the kids, dont blame West Coast for not wanting to flick someone from an against the odds premiership squad ... neither club could get the deal done ..... dont think either club was unreasonable. 2019 will change the moving parts.
Venables would be the prime target as of today, but he'll have double his number of games played & who knows??

I dont mind Veneables .. but although taken early is a differnt player than Kelly.and has potential but needs a bit of a polish. In a way I could see him bing a good add IF we want to transition guys like Selwood out of the mid area. Would he want to come?


Who knows what deal would get floated.. With your depth id consider taking two players and adding to Kelly... as long as the players were quality and fit our needs. Players may be easier than picks and kids that have played already would be closer to delivering than some pick in the draft especially if WC finish high again. Who...no idea..its just an in principle thing. Dugan and Williams for example. Its been shown many times..as it did for Judd that if you do it right... both sides can have a win.. and the club losing "the" could have a big win with time.

The best outcome would be that Kelly stays here but if thats not to be one has to be willing to explore alternatives.
 
Aug 14, 2011
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I dont mind Veneables .. but although taken early is a differnt player than Kelly.and has potential but needs a bit of a polish. In a way I could see him bing a good add IF we want to transition guys like Selwood out of the mid area. Would he want to come?


Who knows what deal would get floated.. With your depth id consider taking two players and adding to Kelly... as long as the players were quality and fit our needs. Players may be easier than picks and kids that have played already would be closer to delivering than some pick in the draft especially if WC finish high again. Who...no idea..its just an in principle thing. Dugan and Williams for example. Its been shown many times..as it did for Judd that if you do it right... both sides can have a win.. and the club losing "the" could have a big win with time.

The best outcome would be that Kelly stays here but if thats not to be one has to be willing to explore alternatives.


:thumbsu: Simmo debuted 8 (?) last year so we all will be wiser come the 2019 trade period, to get quality, you need to trade quality. Tom Cole played across half back in the premiership side, he may get a run thru the middle, Bendigo boy like the Selwoods .... https://www.westcoasteagles.com.au/player-profile/tom-cole
 
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Dec 10, 2003
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Like I said a player shouldn't be able to choose a club after 2 years of been drafted.... What's the point of a club picking a player who invest in that player then after 2 years they say they want to go home... When a player like Ablett and Dangerfield gave there previous clubs a good solid service, when a player like Kelly, Setterfield Caddy want to leave a club after 2 years... Talking to a ex captain of Bulldogs who I'm great mates with said it drives him nuts hearing players want to go to a new club after 1 or 2 years of service..
If Duncan said he wanted to go back to WA now I don't have any problems at all as his given Cats 10 years of service ( which I'd want him to stay )

But why?

This should not be school footy where the captain just picks sides from kids up against the wall or little league where one signs up and just gets put into a side.. its the top level of sport... and although we have copied american paradigm for talent dispersion using a draft ... many other sports do not. And most of their drafts involve players much older than ours. There is no perfect fit.. but id say the shuffling of kids as young as 17/18 off to other states is probably unique to our sport. The draft really would work better if players were older and ready to play.. but to draft a player for years down the track and expect him to still be at you club..a club he did not choose to be at.. its pie in the sky. It really works best when players have little choice like being drafted into the army ... but as we are not at war and in todays world the players have choice. One can not deny the gravity of it.

Ablett is an unusual ref. He has never had to worry about being drafted to Brisbane or Fremantle or Port against his wishes. Each move was done with his wants. Over 20% of the 2018 draft had a say like that.. how is that fair for the other 80%. The draft is to try to even the comp..it does it be denying the righst of kids to choose a place to live and work... is it any wonder some want out when they can .

If you want players to be happy where they are ..perhaps a good start is to let them choose where they want to be. If Kelly had a choice do you really think he would have chosen Geelong. Your ex Dogs Capt. where did he grow up.. did he get moved as a kid from WA etc? Players choice at 18 would bring a whole differnt range of issues.. but my guess it would solve the go home excuse at 19 and 20.
 
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:thumbsu: Simmo debuted 8 (?) last year so we all will be wiser come the 2019 trade period, to get quality, you need to trade quality. Tom Cole played across half back in the premiership side, he may get a run thru the middle, Bendigo boy like the Selwoods .... https://www.westcoasteagles.com.au/player-profile/tom-cole

Im not saying its the way to go or which player..its an options. Cole.. HBF ? not sure he is the type we need but he does look like a type that could play a lot of footy. The last thing we need is to add players that come in and struggle to be our best 22 so it has to be the right players imo. Something to watch as the year proceeds
 
Aug 14, 2011
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Im not saying its the way to go or which player..its an options. Cole.. HBF ? not sure he is the type we need but he does look like a type that could play a lot of footy. The last thing we need is to add players that come in and struggle to be our best 22 so it has to be the right players imo. Something to watch as the year proceeds

Not disputing your points, just used Cole as an example of a kid now, who may progress thru the middle, he's young, inexperienced, grabbed his opportunity to be a member of a premiership side, was a mid fielder when drafted & is a Bendigo boy. At the end of 2019 he may have forced his way into the mid field, & IF that were to occur might be a trade.
 
Dec 10, 2003
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Not disputing your points, just used Cole as an example of a kid now, who may progress thru the middle, he's young, inexperienced, grabbed his opportunity to be a member of a premiership side, was a mid fielder when drafted & is a Bendigo boy. At the end of 2019 he may have forced his way into the mid field, & IF that were to occur might be a trade.

Thats fair. The club do know him..he played VFL for us in his TAC year. My question is where he would fit atm but things change. Bews for example is a FA at years end.. who knows Oct is October fest for more than just drinking games...
 

foxdog50

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But why?

This should not be school footy where the captain just picks sides from kids up against the wall or little league where one signs up and just gets put into a side.. its the top level of sport... and although we have copied american paradigm for talent dispersion using a draft ... many other sports do not. And most of their drafts involve players much older than ours. There is no perfect fit.. but id say the shuffling of kids as young as 17/18 off to other states is probably unique to our sport. The draft really would work better if players were older and ready to play.. but to draft a player for years down the track and expect him to still be at you club..a club he did not choose to be at.. its pie in the sky. It really works best when players have little choice like being drafted into the army ... but as we are not at war and in todays world the players have choice. One can not deny the gravity of it.

Ablett is an unusual ref. He has never had to worry about being drafted to Brisbane or Fremantle or Port against his wishes. Each move was done with his wants. Over 20% of the 2018 draft had a say like that.. how is that fair for the other 80%. The draft is to try to even the comp..it does it be denying the righst of kids to choose a place to live and work... is it any wonder some want out when they can .

If you want players to be happy where they are ..perhaps a good start is to let them choose where they want to be. If Kelly had a choice do you really think he would have chosen Geelong. Your ex Dogs Capt. where did he grow up.. did he get moved as a kid from WA etc? Players choice at 18 would bring a whole differnt range of issues.. but my guess it would solve the go home excuse at 19 and 20.
It's called opinion Turbo... Let's just agree to disagree... Ok...
 
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