It's in our best interests to match for sure should the compo not be adequate. As soon as a match is made, its back to regular trade territory as if the player wasn't a RFA. I say this is in our best interests as we believe Geelong and only Geelong are Paddy's preferred option. If it was just a Vic based club he wants to go to, then matching isn't in our best interests obviously as Carlton would get him for free, and we get nothing. Compo in that situation is preferable no matter what it is.
If paddy wanted to play hard ball, his team would indicate that while he would prefer Geelong, he has no problem going to Carlton. This is really what it hinges on. If his intentions are as clear as the Geelong faithful would have us believe and Geelong is the *only* choice, then we certainly have the power when matching as he won't drop to the draft and a trade will be done.
Yeah, there's no way he's getting to Geelong in the PSD, not with the likes of Carlton, Melboune, Essendon, Brisbane and Gold Coast all ahead of them. Especially with some of the players leaving Brisbane and the GC (Bennell / Dixon, Aish / Redden / Leuenberger etc) - they'd have heaps of cap space to fit him, and there's not a team in the comp that would pass up the opportunity to nab a player like Danger for nothing but a PSD pick. Worst case is he demands a trade the following year, at which point Geelong have to pay top dollar (or, rather, top player/draft pick) to land him then. So they might as well get on with it and do the deal now.
You can also be damn sure that Danger's manager won't let him go anywhere near the PSD give how far down the order Geelong are - he would have already made sure Geelong are willing to work a sensible trade in this scenario before things got to this point.
And I'm sure that's what's going on behind the scenes. The news reckons the clubs have already been negotiating for 2 weeks, and I believe it. For all of the fun we as supporters might like to have bagging each others (and our own) clubs and administrators, the fact is that these are two professional organizations. They both have a lot to gain out of this and a lot to lose if they get it wrong, so I fully expect them to have a deal in place ready to go on day 1 of the trade period so they can get it done and move on to whatever other deals they might be working on.