Welcome Darcy Fogarty, AFC Pick 12 in the 2017 draft!

How many AFL matches do you think Darcy Fogarty will play in 2018?

  • 16+ games

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • It depends on form, injuries blah blah why even bother posting about the season or footy in general

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    78
  • Poll closed .

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Scorpus

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Games played by some of our better young players in their first and second seasons at the Crows:

Matt Crouch
1st - 8
2nd - 17

Luke Brown
1st - 3
2nd - 21

Rory Atkins
1st - 0
2nd - 0

Riley Knight
1st - 0
2nd - 11

Rory Laird
1st - 0
2nd - 18

Tom Lynch (after being traded from St Kilda)
3rd - 6
4th - 17

Wayne Milera
1st - 8
2nd - 16

Mitch McGovern
1st - 0
2nd - 23

Jordan Gallucci
1st - 1
2nd - 16

Tom Doedee
1st - 0
2nd - 0

Daniel Talia
1st - 0
2nd - 9

Rory Sloane
1st - 1
2nd - 14

Jake Lever
1st - 12
2nd - 24

Phil Davis
1st - 0
2nd - 15

Charlie Cameron
1st - 7
2nd - 22

Kyle Hartigan
1st - 3
2nd - 7
 
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Scorpus

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So in recent years, it looks like we've had a very consistent development plan for our talented footballers, with a few exceptions.

The average amount of games in the 1st year is 3.1, then progressing to 14.3 in the 2nd year. It's common for players to play zero games in the first year and still be good.

This is in stark contrast to a team like Carlton, who played Weitering for 20 games in his first season, O'Brien played 18, Petrevski-Seton 20, Dow 20, Fisher 17, Kreuzer 20, Gibbs 22 and so on.

It doesn't look like we pump games into any young players just for the sake of it. In fact the highest amount of games played for a recent draftee in their first year is 12, with Jake Lever.

Going on the stats, you'd expect Fogarty to play around 15 games. However it wouldn't be unusual for him, as a key position player with a lack of available spots, to play less than 10 given it does not appear that we play players for the sake of pumping games into them.

What I expect will happen is (barring an outstanding JLT) Fogarty will start the season in the SANFL, and be the first called upon for any forward line injuries. Then he will press his claims for a spot and play two blocks of consecutive games for around 10-15 games in total.
 
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Games played by some of our better young players in their first and second seasons at the Crows:

Matt Crouch
1st - 8
2nd - 17

Luke Brown
1st - 3
2nd - 21

Rory Atkins
1st - 0
2nd - 0

Riley Knight
1st - 0
2nd - 11

Rory Laird
1st - 0
2nd - 18

Tom Lynch (after being traded from St Kilda)
3rd - 6
4th - 17

Wayne Milera
1st - 8
2nd - 16

Mitch McGovern
1st - 0
2nd - 23

Jordan Gallucci
1st - 1
2nd - 16

Tom Doedee
1st - 0
2nd - 0

Daniel Talia
1st - 0
2nd - 9

Rory Sloane
1st - 1
2nd - 14

Jake Lever
1st - 12
2nd - 24

Phil Davis
1st - 0
2nd - 15

Charlie Cameron
1st - 7
2nd - 22

Kyle Hartigan
1st - 3
2nd - 7
Good post!

Calm the farm people.

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Southerntakeover

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Not really. The post suggests that we have taken an approach of significantly increasing game time for young players in their second year.

For players without elite ceilings.

It really doesnt provide a sensible basis to do less than that for a player with an elite ceiling. Additionally, it doesnt account for availability reduced by injury, or the physical preparedness of players. Fog is not a guy with a child's frame.
 

Southerntakeover

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I still think he can slot straight into Govs third forward role.

It is a good role for learning the game. Not expected to win the game, but contribute and maybe get a run up the ground.

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Which is precisely what Sauce said on the weekend- that McGovern leaving opened up the spot for Fog.
 

Elite Crow

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Games played by some of our better young players in their first and second seasons at the Crows:

Matt Crouch
1st - 8
2nd - 17

Luke Brown
1st - 3
2nd - 21

Rory Atkins
1st - 0
2nd - 0

Riley Knight
1st - 0
2nd - 11

Rory Laird
1st - 0
2nd - 18

Tom Lynch (after being traded from St Kilda)
3rd - 6
4th - 17

Wayne Milera
1st - 8
2nd - 16

Mitch McGovern
1st - 0
2nd - 23

Jordan Gallucci
1st - 1
2nd - 16

Tom Doedee
1st - 0
2nd - 0

Daniel Talia
1st - 0
2nd - 9

Rory Sloane
1st - 1
2nd - 14

Jake Lever
1st - 12
2nd - 24

Phil Davis
1st - 0
2nd - 15

Charlie Cameron
1st - 7
2nd - 22

Kyle Hartigan
1st - 3
2nd - 7
So those stats indicate the key to keeping our young talent is not to play them.
 
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Moderator #3,285
Talia drafted in 2009
Played 1st game round 15 2011, 18 months after being drafted.

Competition for spots?

Wednesday, 23 February 2011

Adelaide defender Daniel Talia wants to steal the best-22 place of his mentor Phil Davis.
"There's only one spot in defence between three or four of us. Phil's probably ahead right now, but there's definitely a lot of competition. Hopefully, Luke Thompson, James Sellar and myself can push up for that spot in the senior team," Talia said.
"For a bloke that's fighting for the same position as me Phil has been really helpful. I appreciate what he does for me, but it would be good if I could push for his spot and kick him out. He won't like me saying that, but that's the reality of it."

They didn't gift him games and it hasn't hurt him.

Such a good position for Fogs to be in knowing he doesn't have to be relied upon or be rushed.
Great position for the club knowing they have a 19y.o. brute that can cover an injury and develop at the same time.
Was that the season Davis got injured?
 

John Who

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I would argue we weren't keen to re-contract Tom Lynch at all, and only did that because McGovern wanted out. I.e. https://www.triplem.com.au/story/da...balling-tom-lynch-on-his-contract-offer-82094. After all you don't low ball someone you are that interested to keep, and I'd have a lot of confidence in saying our initial plan was to let Lynch walk to another club/or accept a contract that was heavily weighted in our favour to make dropping him an option in case we needed a structural change. To back that comment up, our tune 180'd the moment McGovern announced he wanted out, and we agreed to Lynchs initial demands if the smoke was correct there.

I don't disagree Lynch is certainly good in the clutch. That said, any arguments about "Fogarty can't play Lynch's role" is just a poor argument as roles aren't static. They can be changed, which something both Lynch and us will benefit from this season as we lose a lot of the self harm components of Lynch's current role that we've carried, primarily through how we've sacrificed a defensive piece for a relatively unreliable offensive piece (as it was completely dictated on our side was doing), and should make it easier for Lynch to operate a bit deeper which will suit his ball skills/lead up abilities better. Regardless of that benefit, a third tall isn't a position where it's vital to have a currently good player in it, and if we believe Fogarty is going to be our star KPF for the next decade, and a talent we are planning to build the club around (which from what we've seen is the plan), then he needed to have that spot now whilst it was easy to do, and we needed to have dealt with an initial decrease in production.

Lynch for all his good was absolutely expendable, as most players are. We've wasted a big opportunity to get an elite talent into our side as painlessly as possible and are now stuck in an absolutely horrible position here. Fogarty isn't good depth, as no youth player is, and is now completely blocked off from a starting spot in our forward line (seeing otherwise, we're committing 525k+ of our salary to our reserves) without us using a structure that hasn't worked with any sense of reliability without McGovern being present. To the point that the best option now may just be seeing if he will take as a midfielder, or as a defender with the idea to look to transition to a midfield or forward role in the future.
I’m all for lateral thinking, but this post of yours is some serious outer-space, mind-bending, substance-alterating, potent psychedelic stuff!
Lynch is the one of the very few who has been consistent for us in the past few years. Fog is a serious up and comer. The 2 are not on a path collision for spots.
 

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Shaz2012

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Not really. The post suggests that we have taken an approach of significantly increasing game time for young players in their second year.

For players without elite ceilings.

It really doesnt provide a sensible basis to do less than that for a player with an elite ceiling. Additionally, it doesnt account for availability reduced by injury, or the physical preparedness of players. Fog is not a guy with a child's frame.
Ceiling may be elite but his tank limits him. We need to give him a bit of a gold pass but not to his own detriment.
 

John Who

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So in recent years, it looks like we've had a very consistent development plan for our talented footballers, with a few exceptions.

The average amount of games in the 1st year is 3.1, then progressing to 14.3 in the 2nd year. It's common for players to play zero games in the first year and still be good.

This is in stark contrast to a team like Carlton, who played Weitering for 20 games in his first season, O'Brien played 18, Petrevski-Seton 20, Dow 20, Fisher 17, Kreuzer 20, Gibbs 22 and so on.

It doesn't look like we pump games into any young players just for the sake of it. In fact the highest amount of games played for a recent draftee in their first year is 12, with Jake Lever.

Going on the stats, you'd expect Fogarty to play around 15 games. However it wouldn't be unusual for him, as a key position player with a lack of available spots, to play less than 10 given it does not appear that we play players for the sake of pumping games into them.

What I expect will happen is (barring an outstanding JLT) Fogarty will start the season in the SANFL, and be the first called upon for any forward line injuries. Then he will press his claims for a spot and play two blocks of consecutive games for around 10-15 games in total.
I don’t think we can simply generalise on the stats average from 1st year and 2nd year games. What the stats you have showed was that we are able to identify elite talent and try and let them flourish with increasing games in 1st to 2nd year players in Sloane, Gooch, Milera, Lever, McGovern, Laird etc.
However, I think the common theme is that they’re allowed to play increasing games due to some common themes:
- we needed these players to slot into the team quickly due to team needs
- no obvious regulars that were pushing them back to SANFL ranks.

With Fog, he was indeed picked last year due to team needs - from the horrendous hammy massacre! Tex, McGov and Lynch all taking turns to be on the sidelines.

This year, with Tex and Lynch hopefully firing, new recruits in Ned and McAdam showing serious positive signs, Fog’s AFL inclusion is not an obvious need as it was in 2018.

Having said that, due to his tremendous potential, I hope and expect Fog to play a similar amount of games this year like he had last year.
 

azza77

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Ceiling may be elite but his tank limits him. We need to give him a bit of a gold pass but not to his own detriment.
I feel like if we are fit and firing on all cylinders this year, we can very well play Fog and a 4 tall structure against the likes of GC, Blues, Saints, Freo etc. I'd be looking to give him games up forward then. For the harder opponents, I don't think we can really carry him and lose that pressure in the forward half.
 

Golumless

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I still think he can slot straight into Govs third forward role.

It is a good role for learning the game. Not expected to win the game, but contribute and maybe get a run up the ground.

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Not without dropping another forward. The situation we created with McGovern won't be replicated. It was a fluke because of how ridiculously rare McGovern is as a player being a rather solid defensive option as a tall forward. Something that you cannot sacrifice in the forward 50.

Put a four tall set up now, and you have absolutely destroyed any hope of us winning a premiership in 2019. We weren't even a finals side without McGovern in the past two years, with a winning percentage of 45% (77.5% with Gov).

You've been banging this drum for too long Golum, and you never even come close to winning it. You're just so far off on nearly every observation you have about Lynch and his role as a player and how that would relate to Fogarty.

Seriously i'm starting to think you just straight up don't know who Lynch is. So for your easy reference, its this guy we are talking about.

View attachment 625317
You can find running his guts out and finding the aggot almost 20 times a game every weekend!
Oh don't get me wrong, I know exactly who Lynch is. People just overrate players from time to time because they are ours and can't see the forest for the trees (especially if said player has a bit of reputation behind him). Lynch is a good player, I have said that many times, I have also said that I actually expect his performance to increase this season by going to a more classic structure which should let him operate in positions he is dangerous in more often. He is also very expendable because what he does isn't that valuable (even if he is getting close to 20 disposals a game, as that is a practically meaningless stat on it's own), his offensive production has completely depended on us doing well to begin with, and has spent the last two seasons impacting our defensive game, as to accommodate him, we've sacrificed a defense first position (No prizes for guessing what our big problem in 2018 was...). Though, considering our list,and a certain player mentioned below, it was an acceptable sacrifice at the time. Now there may be that simple thought process of "defense isn't important, he's a forward" but forward 50 pressure is the single most reliable method to control a game. After all, what better defensive position is there then pinned in your forward 50? If Midfield is king to this game, defensive pressure (and especially in the forward line) is queen.

Now lets talk about our list situation in 2019:

Adelaide should be lining up with three tall forwards, as we've seen a rather large sample that indicates the only reason we had any success with a four tall set up is due to McGovern due to being able to at least get that defensive component to an average level. We weren't even a team who was batting above a 50% win rate in the past two years without him (50% in 2017, 40% in 2018*), which especially considering how much better then the league we were in 2017, is a massive red flag (and yes, we completely threw away that premiership). The way you replace McGovern is to go with a small forward who can give + defence, as that was 90% of his value to us. Yes. This alone is the big reason to be optimistic about us going deep in 2019 because the rest is good enough with a much more reliable method to control a game.

Acknowledging that, we've seen enough to rule out a four tall forward structure with McGovern leaving to Carlton, unless you have no interest in finals (and believe me, I want us to go deep). So settling on the much more reliable structure of three tall forwards, lets mention our incumbents, Tex, Jenkins and Lynch. Now Tex is absolutely blocking Fogarty, however considering Tex is who we've built our entire side around, is our captain and our star KPF, you cannot justify dropping him at all in 2019-2021. Jenkins isn't blocking Fogarty, and the reason he is saved from that is due to the ruck component. Not because Jenkins is good at it, but it is not something we want to expose Fogarty too, nor can we afford weakening another position seeing the other options come from playing a CEY/Keath/Hartigan in it, and all of them are bad options for 2nd ruck, as they are weakening already problem areas (either through it would require times where we are selecting CEY when Greenwood (and I hate the idea of rucking Greenwood even more) and Mrouch are playing, and our KPDs are absolutely vulnerable as is). So we're left with one person. Now Lynch is in that third tall forward role, which immediately means he's blocking Fog, and isn't even in the same ballpark value wise compared to the other two because Lynch doesn't have the side built around his presence, or is in a situation where there is a component that is doing the least amount of harm possible. Now as the most expendable piece of that forward line, Lynch would be the main culprit to stopping Fogarty playing games, because that is the piece that can be sacrificed and do the least amount of damage. No matter if you're impressed with someone getting close to 20 disposals. Others can find the ball too. You're only stop point would be role, but really, that's an excuse, nothing more seeing roles can be changed to suit an incumbent/suit other players.

So yes, us resigning Lynch has stopped us pumping games into Fogarty as a forward without us getting creative, and risking how he develops by throwing him in defence, or sacrificing a premiership run (unless of course, an absolute miracle happens, but I don't see McGovern like pressure in any of Fogarty, Lynch, Tex or Jenkins). That or doing something much more funky, i.e. converting Fogarty to a midfield role**, moving Lynch elsewhere, dropping Betts and going for a really defensive small forward set up with a combo of Knight/McHenry/McAdam (would be very unpopular, but it'd fix this issue) etc. The other point is depending how you rate Fogarty, that is a problem or not. As I'd argue we see Fog as the player we see as the brightest part of our future, that is a huge problem.




*It's not sexy, but there is no more important statistic then win rate in this game. It's your first marker of value of a player because a large change in win rate (with a good sample size with/without) shows a player has a massive role in making a structure tick. Structures is what separates the wheat from the chaff. The prince of this game ;)

** Totally open to that, a big bodied midfielder who'd be a true enforcer would certainly be a weapon.
 

Geoffa32

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I think Gov's defensive abilities are blown up a bit. Yes he is a good defensive forward. Compared to Tex and Jenkins. However there are plenty of big forwards who can chase and tackle. Fog is no slouch defensively.

2017 and to an extent 2016 we had in form Eddie Betts and Cameron in the F50 that created a lot of pressure. That loss with Cameron gone and Betts aging/out of form meant we lost that pressure moreso thsn Govs missed games.


Note Gov's tackle stat dipped last year compared to 2016 and 17 when the Cameron and Eddie show was in full swing.

Fog also tackled slightly more than Gov last year.




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Geoffa32

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We do need a player to stand up in clutch time.

That is where we will miss Gov massively if this is not found.


I am sure the surname McGovern is Scottish Gaelic for "clutchtime".

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Betts are off

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Oh don't get me wrong, I know exactly who Lynch is. People just overrate players from time to time because they are ours and can't see the forest for the trees (especially if said player has a bit of reputation behind him). Lynch is a good player, I have said that many times, I have also said that I actually expect his performance to increase this season by going to a more classic structure which should let him operate in positions he is dangerous in more often. 1) He is also very expendable because what he does isn't that valuable (2)even if he is getting close to 20 disposals a game, as that is a practically meaningless stat on it's own), (3) his offensive production has completely depended on us doing well to begin with, and has spent the last two seasons impacting our defensive game, as to accommodate him, we've sacrificed a defense first position (No prizes for guessing what our big problem in 2018 was...). Though, considering our list,and a certain player mentioned below, it was an acceptable sacrifice at the time. Now there may be that simple thought process of "defense isn't important, he's a forward" but forward 50 pressure is the single most reliable method to control a game. After all, what better defensive position is there then pinned in your forward 50? If Midfield is king to this game, defensive pressure (and especially in the forward line) is queen.

Now lets talk about our list situation in 2019:

Adelaide should be lining up with three tall forwards, as we've seen a rather large sample that indicates the only reason we had any success with a four tall set up is due to McGovern due to being able to at least get that defensive component to an average level. We weren't even a team who was batting above a 50% win rate in the past two years without him (50% in 2017, 40% in 2018*), which especially considering how much better then the league we were in 2017, is a massive red flag (and yes, we completely threw away that premiership). (4) The way you replace McGovern is to go with a small forward who can give + defence, as that was 90% of his value to us. Yes. This alone is the big reason to be optimistic about us going deep in 2019 because the rest is good enough with a much more reliable method to control a game.

Acknowledging that, we've seen enough to rule out a four tall forward structure with McGovern leaving to Carlton, unless you have no interest in finals (and believe me, I want us to go deep). 5) So settling on the much more reliable structure of three tall forwards, lets mention our incumbents, Tex, Jenkins and Lynch. Now Tex is absolutely blocking Fogarty, however considering Tex is who we've built our entire side around, is our captain and our star KPF, you cannot justify dropping him at all in 2019-2021. Jenkins isn't blocking Fogarty, and the reason he is saved from that is due to the ruck component. Not because Jenkins is good at it, but it is not something we want to expose Fogarty too, nor can we afford weakening another position seeing the other options come from playing a CEY/Keath/Hartigan in it, and all of them are bad options for 2nd ruck, as they are weakening already problem areas (either through it would require times where we are selecting CEY when Greenwood (and I hate the idea of rucking Greenwood even more) and Mrouch are playing, and our KPDs are absolutely vulnerable as is). 6) So we're left with one person. 7)Now Lynch is in that third tall forward role, which immediately means he's blocking Fog, 8) and isn't even in the same ballpark value wise compared to the other two because Lynch doesn't have the side built around his presence, or is in a situation where there is a component that is doing the least amount of harm possible. 9) Now as the most expendable piece of that forward line, Lynch would be the main culprit to stopping Fogarty playing games, because that is the piece that can be sacrificed and do the least amount of damage. 10) No matter if you're impressed with someone getting close to 20 disposals. Others can find the ball too. You're only stop point would be role, but really, that's an excuse, nothing more seeing roles can be changed to suit an incumbent/suit other players.

So yes, us resigning Lynch has stopped us pumping games into Fogarty as a forward without us getting creative, and risking how he develops by throwing him in defence, or sacrificing a premiership run (unless of course, an absolute miracle happens, but I don't see McGovern like pressure in any of Fogarty, Lynch, Tex or Jenkins). That or doing something much more funky, i.e. converting Fogarty to a midfield role**, moving Lynch elsewhere, dropping Betts and going for a really defensive small forward set up with a combo of Knight/McHenry/McAdam (would be very unpopular, but it'd fix this issue) etc. The other point is depending how you rate Fogarty, that is a problem or not. As I'd argue we see Fog as the player we see as the brightest part of our future, that is a huge problem.




*It's not sexy, but there is no more important statistic then win rate in this game. It's your first marker of value of a player because a large change in win rate (with a good sample size with/without) shows a player has a massive role in making a structure tick. Structures is what separates the wheat from the chaff. The prince of this game ;)

** Totally open to that, a big bodied midfielder who'd be a true enforcer would certainly be a weapon.
Really? Another long winded and fundamentally flawed post on this topic? Ok, i'm just gonna touch the top 10 most incorrect statements in that essay! I'll highlight them and number them for easy reference!

1) He is extremely valuable to nearly everyone who watches the Crows. Including Coaches, Fellow Players, Opposition, Statisticians, Critic's and fans. Which has been stated to you on multiple occasions by many posters.
2) His additional elite level stats as a High Half Forward have also been given too you on multiple occasions. Choosing to ignore them doesn't make your position more correct.
3) Lynch's level of output does not dip regardless of win's or losses, (in the last 86 games he's only had 4 games with less then 14 disposals). Go back through his last 4 seasons and see for yourself
https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/T/Tom_Lynch0.html . In fact he is probably our most consistent player regardless of wins or losses, easily our most consistent forward. This statement is completely baseless
4) So really your problem is actually with replacing Gov with FOG, not Lynch with FOG
5) As stated many times, Lynch does not play a traditional tall forward role, not even close. Listing him as a 3rd tall forward is straight up incorrect.
6) No, we are not, for the reasons listed above, as well as the litany of reasons presented to you this entire offseason!
7) Again, as stated on multiple occasions, if you understood Lynch's role vs FOG skill set you would understand this makes less sense the Stengle taking 1st ruck.
8) Correct, Lynch is more valuable. As publicly stated by multiple opposition players and coaches. Also information repeatedly given too you.
9) In a game plan built around rebounding the footy from defense, the act of removing the link man (scratch that, the best link man in the AFL) from the backline to forward line would do SOOOOOO much damage. Its wild that you don't see this!
10) The fact that you don't value 'player roles' just says everything about this entire argument. And admittedly, it would justify your position... Just not anyone else's!
 
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John Who

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Not without dropping another forward. The situation we created with McGovern won't be replicated. It was a fluke because of how ridiculously rare McGovern is as a player being a rather solid defensive option as a tall forward. Something that you cannot sacrifice in the forward 50.

Put a four tall set up now, and you have absolutely destroyed any hope of us winning a premiership in 2019. We weren't even a finals side without McGovern in the past two years, with a winning percentage of 45% (77.5% with Gov).



Oh don't get me wrong, I know exactly who Lynch is. People just overrate players from time to time because they are ours and can't see the forest for the trees (especially if said player has a bit of reputation behind him). Lynch is a good player, I have said that many times, I have also said that I actually expect his performance to increase this season by going to a more classic structure which should let him operate in positions he is dangerous in more often. He is also very expendable because what he does isn't that valuable (even if he is getting close to 20 disposals a game, as that is a practically meaningless stat on it's own), his offensive production has completely depended on us doing well to begin with, and has spent the last two seasons impacting our defensive game, as to accommodate him, we've sacrificed a defense first position (No prizes for guessing what our big problem in 2018 was...). Though, considering our list,and a certain player mentioned below, it was an acceptable sacrifice at the time. Now there may be that simple thought process of "defense isn't important, he's a forward" but forward 50 pressure is the single most reliable method to control a game. After all, what better defensive position is there then pinned in your forward 50? If Midfield is king to this game, defensive pressure (and especially in the forward line) is queen.

Now lets talk about our list situation in 2019:

Adelaide should be lining up with three tall forwards, as we've seen a rather large sample that indicates the only reason we had any success with a four tall set up is due to McGovern due to being able to at least get that defensive component to an average level. We weren't even a team who was batting above a 50% win rate in the past two years without him (50% in 2017, 40% in 2018*), which especially considering how much better then the league we were in 2017, is a massive red flag (and yes, we completely threw away that premiership). The way you replace McGovern is to go with a small forward who can give + defence, as that was 90% of his value to us. Yes. This alone is the big reason to be optimistic about us going deep in 2019 because the rest is good enough with a much more reliable method to control a game.

Acknowledging that, we've seen enough to rule out a four tall forward structure with McGovern leaving to Carlton, unless you have no interest in finals (and believe me, I want us to go deep). So settling on the much more reliable structure of three tall forwards, lets mention our incumbents, Tex, Jenkins and Lynch. Now Tex is absolutely blocking Fogarty, however considering Tex is who we've built our entire side around, is our captain and our star KPF, you cannot justify dropping him at all in 2019-2021. Jenkins isn't blocking Fogarty, and the reason he is saved from that is due to the ruck component. Not because Jenkins is good at it, but it is not something we want to expose Fogarty too, nor can we afford weakening another position seeing the other options come from playing a CEY/Keath/Hartigan in it, and all of them are bad options for 2nd ruck, as they are weakening already problem areas (either through it would require times where we are selecting CEY when Greenwood (and I hate the idea of rucking Greenwood even more) and Mrouch are playing, and our KPDs are absolutely vulnerable as is). So we're left with one person. Now Lynch is in that third tall forward role, which immediately means he's blocking Fog, and isn't even in the same ballpark value wise compared to the other two because Lynch doesn't have the side built around his presence, or is in a situation where there is a component that is doing the least amount of harm possible. Now as the most expendable piece of that forward line, Lynch would be the main culprit to stopping Fogarty playing games, because that is the piece that can be sacrificed and do the least amount of damage. No matter if you're impressed with someone getting close to 20 disposals. Others can find the ball too. You're only stop point would be role, but really, that's an excuse, nothing more seeing roles can be changed to suit an incumbent/suit other players.

So yes, us resigning Lynch has stopped us pumping games into Fogarty as a forward without us getting creative, and risking how he develops by throwing him in defence, or sacrificing a premiership run (unless of course, an absolute miracle happens, but I don't see McGovern like pressure in any of Fogarty, Lynch, Tex or Jenkins). That or doing something much more funky, i.e. converting Fogarty to a midfield role**, moving Lynch elsewhere, dropping Betts and going for a really defensive small forward set up with a combo of Knight/McHenry/McAdam (would be very unpopular, but it'd fix this issue) etc. The other point is depending how you rate Fogarty, that is a problem or not. As I'd argue we see Fog as the player we see as the brightest part of our future, that is a huge problem.




*It's not sexy, but there is no more important statistic then win rate in this game. It's your first marker of value of a player because a large change in win rate (with a good sample size with/without) shows a player has a massive role in making a structure tick. Structures is what separates the wheat from the chaff. The prince of this game ;)

** Totally open to that, a big bodied midfielder who'd be a true enforcer would certainly be a weapon.
Can you please summarise in 1 paragraph what your main point of the post above? :)
 

John Who

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I think Gov's defensive abilities are blown up a bit. Yes he is a good defensive forward. Compared to Tex and Jenkins. However there are plenty of big forwards who can chase and tackle. Fog is no slouch defensively.

2017 and to an extent 2016 we had in form Eddie Betts and Cameron in the F50 that created a lot of pressure. That loss with Cameron gone and Betts aging/out of form meant we lost that pressure moreso thsn Govs missed games.


Note Gov's tackle stat dipped last year compared to 2016 and 17 when the Cameron and Eddie show was in full swing.

Fog also tackled slightly more than Gov last year.




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I think Fog’s games this year will be a horses for courses type of situation. Obviously, if it’s an injury/resting to Tex/JJ, then Fog should be first picked.

If the usual tall forwards are all fit, then Fog might play in various situations:
- the opposition have a slow/tall defense
- our defenders having injuries
- other?
 

Southerntakeover

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Southerntakeover

Brownlow Medallist
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The best return from any key forward on the ground with his two goals, including the sealer and he set up the icing on the cake goal to Jones with some pretty impressive work as well. Has an elite shot for goal, genuinely looks likely to put 6 up any time you get him a set shot in range.
 

ams4crows

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Just get this kid the ball inside 50 and he will kick goals, he is the one that should be playing out the square, Jenkins and Walker up tge ground slightly in front of him.
 
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