Speculation Darcy Parish

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Ants

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On the notion they went HARD and were prepared to pay BIG money for McKay behind closed doors, I think it's pretty much a given they're going after a big key forward. Especially with Daniher leaving, he was expected to be our next big key forward for the next 10-15 years. Also, it's clear that Hooker isn't the longterm answer. He's just there to plug the hole/fill the need until we can find something else. I don't think Jones is the number one big man down there, I think his style of play is more suited for the CHF role, but I may be wrong in time. Also, unless something drastically changes in the way Wright plays then I really don't see him being the number one big man down there. He doesn't play aggressive enough i.e doesn't command or demand the ball enough. Someone needs to tell him to play angrier and like it's his forward line. That may come when Hooker finishes but as it stands, I don't think he's the complete answer. Definite need to go after a big key forward i.e try to lure Ben King back to Victoria.
You've ignored Baldwin who is a classic FF, and you've ignored that we may play one of Bryan/Draper out of the square. Its quite possible we have the structural replacement of Hooker already. Hell, Reid played forward and with the Francis/Lav/Ridley + 1 tall structure working, would be free to have a crack at the FF position.

And that's assuming we don't have a more mobile structure with (say) Wright, Eyre & Jones.

Including Reid & the rucks, we've got Wright, Jones, Eyre, Baldwin, Bryan, Draper and Reid to find 2-3 good tall forwards. Let's do that first. Until we know those options won't work, there is very little point in spending draft resources on a tall forward. Better to spend it on a midfielder, and if in 2023 we realise none of those kids are coming on then you target a big forward then.

Hell, Harry McKay is RFA in 2023, that would be the better time to target him. Maybe we're getting in his ear now really for 2023 as a backup need.
 

Ants

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A good number of contracts are up this year that we would be looking to not renew unless absolutely necessary.

Merrett & Parish on 5 year good deals, Stringer on 3 year decent deal.
Snelling, Hind, Bryan, Guelfi, Redman, Laverde, Jones & Waterman on 2-3 standard deals.
1 year options would be on the table for Baldwin, Cahill, Zerk, Ambrose, Hird, Flip & Hooker
Imagine we'll cut 7 and draft hard again. recycling a Gleeson/Cutler/Clarke will be disappointing.

7 plus current cap space, plus reduced Hooker salary (current deal i think is his post ban one. i imagine it's tasty), minus new deals.

Jones, Eyre & Baldwin are good young depth. But none of them proven.
Wright is a good role player, but i don't see him leading a premiership forward line.
If McKay keeps this up, $1m a year for 4 at a cost of our F1 is a no brainer.

Challenge will be McKay agreeing and getting Carlton to take the future first.
I think Ambrose will be traded/delisted. Zerk might be traded. Unless you're including rookies, I don't think we have 7 to cut.

Carlton would be nuts to take just a future first, and we've got far more issues with midfield depth than tall forward depth. In the VFL the only youngsters playing VFL are Cahill & Johnson, who both are small and still look a way off. It is a far far bigger priority than tall forward.
 

Hak94

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You've ignored Baldwin who is a classic FF, and you've ignored that we may play one of Bryan/Draper out of the square. Its quite possible we have the structural replacement of Hooker already. Hell, Reid played forward and with the Francis/Lav/Ridley + 1 tall structure working, would be free to have a crack at the FF position.

And that's assuming we don't have a more mobile structure with (say) Wright, Eyre & Jones.

Including Reid & the rucks, we've got Wright, Jones, Eyre, Baldwin, Bryan, Draper and Reid to find 2-3 good tall forwards. Let's do that first. Until we know those options won't work, there is very little point in spending draft resources on a tall forward. Better to spend it on a midfielder, and if in 2023 we realise none of those kids are coming on then you target a big forward then.

Hell, Harry McKay is RFA in 2023, that would be the better time to target him. Maybe we're getting in his ear now really for 2023 as a backup need.
I'm fine with trying all options, just as long as it's more consistent than what is currently on show as I don't think Wright (as yet, happy to be wrong though) looks to be the number one big man down there. I think we'd be better spending those resources on a forward option though!

The depth we're growing in the midfield is coming along - Merrett (if he stays), McGrath, Shiel (coming back from injury), Parish, Caldwell (coming back from injury), Perkins (the notion he'll go in there once he gets more exp + size) and you throw in the pinch-hit options - Stringer, Langford and Snelling. That's six to seven options now. Maybe go to the draft to find one more quality option but even then, I think our midfield isn't a weak point anymore, especially if those players amongst that group i.e Caldwell, Perkins etc continue on the trajectory we hope. But yeah, I don't think the midfields as weak as what we all think. Just my thoughts though.
 

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citizen-erased

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I think Ambrose will be traded/delisted. Zerk might be traded. Unless you're including rookies, I don't think we have 7 to cut.

Carlton would be nuts to take just a future first, and we've got far more issues with midfield depth than tall forward depth. In the VFL the only youngsters playing VFL are Cahill & Johnson, who both are small and still look a way off. It is a far far bigger priority than tall forward.
Agree. Hoping that gets plugged via MSD (2x mids) & ND (at least 2 if not 3 mids).

Carlton certainly would be nuts to accept less, but that's not our issue.
We offer the cash, we offer what we can. That's the benefit of chasing an OOC player. i don't think it will happen as McKay won't leave imo.

Ranking our priorities:
1-Merrett
2-Parish
3-Stringer
4-Mids via draft
5-2022 F1 into good 2021 draft hand.
6-2022 F1 into a gun kid
 

Yoda_

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I think Ambrose will be traded/delisted. Zerk might be traded. Unless you're including rookies, I don't think we have 7 to cut.

Carlton would be nuts to take just a future first, and we've got far more issues with midfield depth than tall forward depth. In the VFL the only youngsters playing VFL are Cahill & Johnson, who both are small and still look a way off. It is a far far bigger priority than tall forward.
The lack of mid range picks could very well save some guys perhaps. Would we prefer to take a speculative pick in the 70’s and 80’s or keep a guys like Ned Cahil?


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Hak94

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The lack of mid range picks could very well save some guys perhaps. Would we prefer to take a speculative pick in the 70’s and 80’s or keep a guys like Ned Cahil?


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Depends on where we're at in terms of players locking down positions in the 22 come the end of the year / offseason. If something drastically changed in the small forward position and we lost depth there (as that is where Cahill showed the most promise), than I can see him staying on. But, he's not a defender (where they've had him training over summer) and in terms of smalls/the rebounding defender option (as that's what he would play as i.e a Caleb Daniel type) Ess have, we don't struggle in that department. On that notion, you probably wouldn't keep him on unless you really want to hold depth there. I think there are other players you'd looking at delisting or trading etc before him though - Gleeson for one.
 

Ambrosia

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The lack of mid range picks could very well save some guys perhaps. Would we prefer to take a speculative pick in the 70’s and 80’s or keep a guys like Ned Cahil?


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Cahill’s ability around goals probably gets him another year on the list.
 

Ants

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The lack of mid range picks could very well save some guys perhaps. Would we prefer to take a speculative pick in the 70’s and 80’s or keep a guys like Ned Cahil?
We're only down one pick on normal. We've got no second or fourth, but we've got two third rounders.

Cahill is only in his second year. Got games last year, and picked up over 20 possessions in the VFL on the weekend playing purely midfield. I'm assuming both he and Johnson (first year fit after being recruited with the ACL already) are probably reasonably safe. Obviously not completely, we've delisted Mynott, Gown and Houlihan after only two years in recent times, and Jok after one year.

I would have said the at risk players in order of high to low risk are (senior list only so Gleeson & Clarke don't count):

Cutler, Zaka, Ambrose, Mosquito, Johnson, Cahill, Phillips and Hooker. Its every chance we only cut three, since I think we do still need Phillips for depth, and all of Mosquito, Johnson and Cahill have got potential.

Hooker has probably gained himself another year - if he wants it. Hurley could also unexpectedly retire. If they did, that might save Ambrose's skin.
 

Hak94

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We're only down one pick on normal. We've got no second or fourth, but we've got two third rounders.

Cahill is only in his second year. Got games last year, and picked up over 20 possessions in the VFL on the weekend playing purely midfield. I'm assuming both he and Johnson (first year fit after being recruited with the ACL already) are probably reasonably safe. Obviously not completely, we've delisted Mynott, Gown and Houlihan after only two years in recent times, and Jok after one year.

I would have said the at risk players in order of high to low risk are (senior list only so Gleeson & Clarke don't count):

Cutler, Zaka, Ambrose, Mosquito, Johnson, Cahill, Phillips and Hooker. Its every chance we only cut three, since I think we do still need Phillips for depth, and all of Mosquito, Johnson and Cahill have got potential.

Hooker has probably gained himself another year - if he wants it. Hurley could also unexpectedly retire. If they did, that might save Ambrose's skin.
I think Phillips stays on, for ruck depth. Even though Wright can obviously play that fill-in ruck if Draper & Bryan aren't played at the same time or go down. But, Wright was obviously recruited to play as a key forward. The only way I can really see him not being at Ess is if another club comes to him an offers him the number or two ruck spot.

Mosquito I think stays on too, probably for another year. If he doesn't get his body right or doesn't show enough promise post-ACL and can't get in the team then it may be time to move him on. All of the other names though, I agree with.
 

Ants

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I think Phillips stays on, for ruck depth. Even though Wright can obviously play that fill-in ruck if Draper & Bryan aren't played at the same time or go down. But, Wright was obviously recruited to play as a key forward. The only way I can really see him not being at Ess is if another club comes to him an offers him the number or two ruck spot.

Mosquito I think stays on too, probably for another year. If he doesn't get his body right or doesn't show enough promise post-ACL and can't get in the team then it may be time to move him on. All of the other names though, I agree with.
I’d listed them in order, so I agree on Phillips.
Mozzie is an interesting one. Big upside, but terrible consistency. I had him and Johnson neck and neck. Wouldn’t surprise me to see one or both moved to the rookie list for Gleeson/Clarke and given one year deals.
I think Cahill and later are safe. Cahill has been performing well in the midfield at VFL level.
 

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