Draft Expert Davo-27's 2021 u18 Draft Thread

[PMBangers]

i have been thinking about where Jason Horne-Francis should go in the draft for the last 2 months or more with a critical view, the recent South Adelaide and SA V WA game confirmed my suspicions that he doesnt dominate in the midfield as a team using pick 1 would want, i had some concerns in the Geelong game and a few South Adelaide games i had seen earlier this year and even dropped him from pick 1 in my rankings on July 3rd, my concerns are his lack of productivity and that cant be trained or fixed, players are either productive or they arent, so thats a minor red flag and when i look for elite players, i hope they have no red flags, my last rankings my mindset was i will give JHF a chance to impress, but i was on the verge of dropping him a couple of spots, if you need to know.

Right, but did you watch footage between previous rankings and this one? My main question was on Fahey who's raised two spots

 

[Davo-27]

Right, but did you watch footage between previous rankings and this one? My main question was on Fahey who's raised two spots

i think Fahey is a top 10 player in this draft, the few games i have seen him play makes me think this, unfortunately covid is ruining the availability of being able to see more of him, but that is my view, i would think you would be happy to get Fahey at 20 or wherever, but some people think he is worthy of a top 10 pick?

or do you think i have some kind of influence over clubs or something?

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Rucks: imo the ruck division is really shallow, i can see approximately 4 candidates

1. Toby Conway 204cm 90kg - Geelong Falcons big man, similar build and style to Ben McEvoy as someone else pointed out which i agree with, very strong in the ruck and around the ground which i like to see from rucks, easily the best Ruck option in the draft pool, his Academy game was ok, he gave away a few free kicks in the centre when he got the opportunity but his play in general was the most impressive of the 3 rucks imo.

2. Mac Andrew 200cm 70kg - Dandenong Stingrays, plays back up to Conway in the Vic Country set up and also plays forward, similar to Mabior Chol, people are excited by his potential athletic advantage he could bring, but he is still raw and not the complete package yet, he has been hyped up a lot and is unlikely to get to the Demons post pick 20 as their NGA, had a great burst of impact in the Academy game V Geelong which got people hyped about his potential.

3. Dante Visentini 201cm 88kg - Sandringham Dragons, at the start of the year was struggling to get game time behind Jacob Edwards and Max Heath, but after the mid season draft started to show some talent and ability to play ruck at a decent level.

4. Luke Elphinstone 202cm 87kg - Tasmania Devils, very raw project ruck i noticed in a couple of games, very skinny kid who has a bit of talent and could be a rookie selection if a team is looking for a project ruck?

Don't rate Liam Podhajski? Every time I've watched the Cannons I've been impressed with his output.

 

[Davo-27]

Don't rate Liam Podhajski? Every time I've watched the Cannons I've been impressed with his output.

he doesnt seem athletic enough, if he is taken in the draft it will be by a team that needs a ruck maybe late/rookie?. he is also 19 and so missed out last year and in the MSD, there are plenty of 19 year olds that can dominate NAB League but lack something to take that next step to AFL.

 

[Davo-27]

The Strength of this draft has been an interesting topic over the last few months, i see this draft having some depth like most years around 30-40 players of potential quality then it falls off, so i would say its an average year maybe even above average.

The Pros, a stronger than average Vic Metro and WA region producing a number of good talent, The Cons, weaker than average Allies, SA and the normal average amount of talent from Vic Country.

The KPP/Ruck talent seems to solely come from WA, Vic Country and Vic Metro

Academy-F/S aligned players of some worth, Daicos, Darcy, Fahey, Andrew, Owens, Windhager, Regan, Benning, Motlop, Uwland, other than Andrew it is interesting to see if any of them get taken before they can go to their respective aligned clubs with a bid(except Fahey and Uwland who are guaranteed to have a bid option)

 

[Davo-27]

September Phantom Draft

Pick 1 - Collingwood - Nick Daicos (Bid)
Pick 2 - Western - Sam Darcy (Bid)
Pick 3 - North Melb - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 4 - GWS Giants - Finn Callaghan
Pick 5 - GC Suns - Ben Hobbs
Pick 6 - Adelaide - Josh Sinn
Pick 7 - Hawthorn - Neil Erasmus
Pick 8 - Carlton - Josh Gibcus
Pick 9 - Richmond - Jye Amiss
Pick 10 - Fremantle - Jacob Van Rooyen
Pick 11 - StKilda - Mac Andrew
Pick 12 - WCE - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13 - Essendon - Josh Ward
Pick 14 - GWS Giants - Josh Fahey (Bid)
Pick 15 - Sydney - Matthew Roberts
Pick 16 - Brisbane - Josh Goater
Pick 17 - Richmond - Josh Rachele
Pick 18 - Port Adelaide - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 19 - Brisbane - Jack Williams
Pick 20 - GC Suns - Campbell Chesser
Pick 21 - North Melb - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 22 - Hawthorn - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 23 - GC Suns - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 24 - Adelaide - Arlo Draper
Pick 25 - Hawthorn - Toby Conway
Pick 26 - Carlton - Leek Aleer
Pick 27 - Richmond - Ned Long
Pick 28 - Fremantle - Kade Dittmar
Pick 29 - Richmond - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 30 - WCE - Josh Browne

 

[SSSSSS]

September Phantom Draft

Pick 1 - Collingwood - Nick Daicos (Bid)
Pick 2 - Western - Sam Darcy (Bid)
Pick 3 - North Melb - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 4 - GWS Giants - Finn Callaghan
Pick 5 - GC Suns - Ben Hobbs
Pick 6 - Adelaide - Josh Sinn
Pick 7 - Hawthorn - Neil Erasmus
Pick 8 - Carlton - Josh Gibcus
Pick 9 - Richmond - Jye Amiss
Pick 10 - Fremantle - Jacob Van Rooyen
Pick 11 - StKilda - Mac Andrew
Pick 12 - WCE - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13 - Essendon - Josh Ward
Pick 14 - GWS Giants - Josh Fahey (Bid)
Pick 15 - Sydney - Matthew Roberts
Pick 16 - Brisbane - Josh Goater
Pick 17 - Richmond - Josh Rachele
Pick 18 - Port Adelaide - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 19 - Brisbane - Jack Williams
Pick 20 - GC Suns - Campbell Chesser
Pick 21 - North Melb - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 22 - Hawthorn - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 23 - GC Suns - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 24 - Adelaide - Arlo Draper
Pick 25 - Hawthorn - Toby Conway
Pick 26 - Carlton - Leek Aleer
Pick 27 - Richmond - Ned Long
Pick 28 - Fremantle - Kade Dittmar
Pick 29 - Richmond - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 30 - WCE - Josh Browne

Some serious value late in the first round.

 

[blueiris]

Not sure what Williams brings that McStay and Hipwood don’t

 

[theGav56]

Not sure what Williams brings that McStay and Hipwood don’t

Who would you have taken?

 

[blueiris]

Who would you have taken?

Chesser Lions need run out of defence feel him and Coleman would be a good pairing

 

[M Malice]

Who would you have taken?

I wish Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera didn't go the selection before or would have taken him, the next 5 after the Jack Williams selection I would have preferred as well, love the Josh Goater pick though.

 

[briztoon]

Who would you have taken?

Bazzo, Chesser, Wilmot, Knevitt, Sonsie, Conway. In that order of preference.

 

[pupstar]

i have been thinking about where Jason Horne-Francis should go in the draft for the last 2 months or more with a critical view, the recent South Adelaide and SA V WA game confirmed my suspicions that he doesnt dominate in the midfield as a team using pick 1 would want, i had some concerns in the Geelong game and a few South Adelaide games i had seen earlier this year and even dropped him from pick 1 in my rankings on July 3rd, my concerns are his lack of productivity and that cant be trained or fixed, players are either productive or they arent, so thats a minor red flag and when i look for elite players, i hope they have no red flags, my last rankings my mindset was i will give JHF a chance to impress, but i was on the verge of dropping him a couple of spots, if you need to know.

What did you think of his game on the weekend just gone.

 

[Davo-27]

What did you think of his game on the weekend just gone.

i didnt see it and i dont plan on seeing it.

 

[pupstar]

i didnt see it and i dont plan on seeing it.

Why is that.

 

[Mutineer]

i didnt see it and i dont plan on seeing it.

Strange take for a committed draft watcher on a player expected to go very early in the draft?

Played a lot more on ball this week and was really impressive, easily his best game for some time.

 

[Schtinker]

Happy with the West Coast picks. Would be happy with one of Warner or Sheldrick with our next, Hough or Chipper after that and Ethan Regan with our last.

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

Hi Davo
Trade hypothetical:
Hawks trade pick 5 and 2022 1st
GWS trade picks 2 and 13.
We draft Horne-Francis or most likely Callaghan, GWS draft Gibcus/Amiss/Andrew (they don’t need another midfielder). I don’t see a significant difference in the quality of players likely to go between picks 5 and 13 from our point of view.
Thoughts?

 

[Golumless]

Arlo Draper at 24 <3

 

[Davo-27]

Hi Davo
Trade hypothetical:
Hawks trade pick 5 and 2022 1st
GWS trade picks 2 and 13.
We draft Horne-Francis or most likely Callaghan, GWS draft Gibcus/Amiss/Andrew (they don’t need another midfielder). I don’t see a significant difference in the quality of players likely to go between picks 5 and 13 from our point of view.
Thoughts?

i doubt GWS will take it, they will likely take one of Callaghan or Horne-Francis then go for a KPD with their 2nd if they dont have a bid on Fahey, which they are banking on i think?

 

[Del191229]

Doubt we bid on Darcy.

 

[Mutineer]

Doubt we bid on Darcy.

Not too smart then, no way it doesn't get matched, same with Daicos, I'll guarantee Adelaide would and a host of other clubs if they were in the Roos position. Adelaide never had a problem bidding on Ugle-Hagan before taking their guy Thilthorpe. It was always Adelaide's strategy last year and they informed Thilthorpe prior, you've got to realise that bidding on those 2 virtually wipes the Dogs and Pies out of the draft and enhances the Roos other picks later in the draft.

 

[Del191229]

Not too smart then, no way it doesn't get matched, same with Daicos, I'll guarantee Adelaide would and a host of other clubs if they were in the Roos position. Adelaide never had a problem bidding on Ugle-Hagan before taking their guy Thilthorpe. It was always Adelaide's strategy last year and they informed Thilthorpe prior, you've got to realise that bidding on those 2 virtually wipes the Dogs and Pies out of the draft and enhances the Roos other picks later in the draft.

Have the Dogs guaranteed they'll take Darcy?

I don't think he's a pick 1 talent. Daicos, sure.

But I reckon we take JHF over Darcy in an open draft so why bid on him?

Adelaide bid on Ugle-Hagen because he was number 1 talent.

 

[Mutineer]

Have the Dogs guaranteed they'll take Darcy?

I don't think he's a pick 1 talent. Daicos, sure.

But I reckon we take JHF over Darcy in an open draft so why bid on him?

Adelaide bid on Ugle-Hagen because he was number 1 talent.

Dogs are matching any bids on Darcy, he's clearly the best big man in this draft.

We must have been watching a different "Darcy" I guess.

 

[Big_Newon]

Dogs are matching any bids on Darcy, he's clearly the best big man in this draft.

We must have been watching a different "Darcy" I guess.

I agree that roos will bid on Darcy because they desperately need a key forward even though they wont end up getting him its worth a bid and he would be perfect for them.