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Autopsy De-Pendlebury: Will the man ever fetch a Brownlow?

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mike123 said:
TBH I think that's exactly why he hasn't won a Brownlow. In 2012 and 13 Swan was better then him IMO and in the last to years he hasn't had the midfield help.

I think this year is his best chance with Swan's slight decline still playing good footy but has gone behind Pendlebury, and with the addition of Treloar who'll help take the load off the midfield.
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Can respect that line of thinking but will have to agree to disagree on that one.

Personally I see Hannebery winning the Brownlow this year but I'd place him in a similar vein to Pendles and hence why I don't believe it isn't conducive to winning the thing.

edit: or agree to agree? After reading your post again I think I might've misubderstood what you were saying there haha. My bad.
 
Tarkyn_24 said:
Can respect that line of thinking but will have to agree to disagree on that one.

Personally I see Hannebery winning the Brownlow this year but I'd place him in a similar vein to Pendles and hence why I don't believe it isn't conducive to winning the thing.

edit: or agree to agree? After reading your post again I think I might've misubderstood what you were saying there haha. My bad.
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Hannebery similar to Pendlebury? Or do you mean in the respect of players 'stealing' votes off of him? Gotta say anyone in that Sydney line-up has it tough with that ridiculous midfield. I still don't understand how Josh Kennedy didn't win the 2012 Brownlow.

Certainly can't agree that Hannebery is as good as Pendlebury though, that's not to say he's not a very very good player but Pendlebury is in that clear top 3 bracket (behind Ablett/Fyfe) IMO.
 
Is Penders Brownlow worthy, absolutely he has all the attributes, a class act.

The Brownlow does not always go to the best player each year and everyone has a different opinion as to who that is on any given year, hence being able to bet on it. Penders has been a model of consistency year on year and in the top handful of players each year. I would prefer him be a Premiership Captain as it typifies his approach and the way he plays the game more so than an individual honour.

The Brownlow in a Premiership year, too much??
 

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His lack of pace hurts his chances. Go back and look at how many slow midfielders win Brownlow medals in the last 15 years. Woewoedin. I think that's it. Even he was faster than Pendles though.

Umpires are dumb and easily fooled. Its the same reason Sam Mitchell hasn't won a medal. Both Mitchell and Pendlebury should have won a Brownlow by now, but neither of them is fast enough. Umpires notice fast midfielders. Or "burst" midfielders like Judd, Swan, Fyfe etc.

De Goey has a better chance of a Brownlow than Pendles does.
 
Tarkyn_24 said:
Black or Richo should have Cooney's medal.

How the **** people give Woewodin so much stick when Cooney was ten times worse as an undeserving winner I'll never understand.
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More interesting is the players who had one really good year but to be fair are not considered top line players.
Good luck to them but that was going beyond their status so to speak. Happens.
Woewodin fits this, Hardie in some ways, Couch, liberatore, Wilson,
I'd argue Stynes, G Teasdale are other non world beaters but good players.
Others too
 
Shpeshal Ed said:
His lack of pace hurts his chances. Go back and look at how many slow midfielders win Brownlow medals in the last 15 years. Woewoedin. I think that's it. Even he was faster than Pendles though.

Umpires are dumb and easily fooled. Its the same reason Sam Mitchell hasn't won a medal. Both Mitchell and Pendlebury should have won a Brownlow by now, but neither of them is fast enough. Umpires notice fast midfielders. Or "burst" midfielders like Judd, Swan, Fyfe etc.

De Goey has a better chance of a Brownlow than Pendles does.
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Priddis would be one and Black another though I agree pace out of the pack is very eye catching to the umpires. It also absolutely carves up the opposition from stoppages and makes you look a cut above so no surprise it is looked on favorably.

Its not midfielders who don't win one are shunned, Mtchell is one of the highest vote getters, Pendles also polls well. Sometimes you need a bit of luck to turn 1 vote games into 2 vote games and 2s into BOGs.
 
StillWaiting5689 said:
Priddis would be one and Black another though I agree pace out of the pack is very eye catching to the umpires. It also absolutely carves up the opposition from stoppages and makes you look a cut above so no surprise it is looked on favorably.

Its not midfielders who don't win one are shunned, Mtchell is one of the highest vote getters, Pendles also polls well. Sometimes you need a bit of luck to turn 1 vote games into 2 vote games and 2s into BOGs.
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I think this is the key however I think the colour of the jumper has a bit to do with it.

In comparison to other clubs we often see an opposition player get 2 or sometimes 3 votes in a Collingwood win. When roles are reversed our players normally only get 1 vote.

Career Brownlow vote getters are interesting, looking at the top 10 all recent era players poll 3 votes vs 2 votes at a ratio of between 1.5 & 2:1 The outlier is Swan who polls at worse than a 1:1 ratio.

Similarly with a few exceptions burst players generally have the higher ratio and slower types the lower ratio.

http://afltables.com/afl/brownlow/totals0.html
 
1892 said:
I think this is the key however I think the colour of the jumper has a bit to do with it.

In comparison to other clubs we often see an opposition player get 2 or sometimes 3 votes in a Collingwood win. When roles are reversed our players normally only get 1 vote.

Career Brownlow vote getters are interesting, looking at the top 10 all recent era players poll 3 votes vs 2 votes at a ratio of between 1.5 & 2:1 The outlier is Swan who polls at worse than a 1:1 ratio.

Similarly with a few exceptions burst players generally have the higher ratio and slower types the lower ratio.

http://afltables.com/afl/brownlow/totals0.html
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I avoid thinking the jumper has anything to do with it (people used to talk on here a lot about free kick differentials over periods of time) as even if (big if!!) it is true there is nothing to be done about it.

I'm sure there is a stat person who could look up 3 vote games in a losing side, remove close games under 10 points (where its more reasonable for losing player to be considered the best) and see where clubs rank.

I recall a game against gold coast where ablett had the ball on a string but collingwood won by 10 goals - i think he was named bog that game and whilst effectiveness could be debated due to the quality of those around him i would say he was above the rest of the players on the ground. Buckley got a lot of votes in losing sides himself.

Swan has played in strong teams since he became a prolific vote getter with very good players around him which may explain his ratio being slightly lower, would be interesting to see ratio by years as could be diluted by his early days or his later years.
 
One of the great under pollers of our time.

3 major things go against him when rated by AA selectors, Umpires and alike.

- Disposal efficiency is bizarrely the games most underrated stat for mids. Only in our game. Out of all mids in the game who can actually win the ball he is comfortably the best ball user.

- He is our best and one of the best defensive, pressure midfielders in the game. Not many know this, and even if they did it isn't a factor in polling.

- And yes over the last 7 years he has been the games most consistent elite mid. He is a victim of that, a victim of having men who aren't looking for the best players during the game but are thinking back after the game to who stood out. Consistency doesn't stand out.

The first 2 factors also apply to AA selectors and other awards. Pendlebury was rated the 3rd best player of the year in 2015 by Champion data because they actually analyse the game outside of disposals. He was 1st in 2014.

I think even by this board he is underrated. The fact that commentators don't shut up abaout his whole 'slows down time' thing doesn't make him overrated when they go ahead and leave him and his 85% disposal efficiency and most pressure acts on the ground out of their top 5 on game day.

If Pendles doesn't get a Brownlow it will be a travesty.
 
StillWaiting5689 said:
I avoid thinking the jumper has anything to do with it (people used to talk on here a lot about free kick differentials over periods of time) as even if (big if!!) it is true there is nothing to be done about it.

I'm sure there is a stat person who could look up 3 vote games in a losing side, remove close games under 10 points (where its more reasonable for losing player to be considered the best) and see where clubs rank.

I recall a game against gold coast where ablett had the ball on a string but collingwood won by 10 goals - i think he was named bog that game and whilst effectiveness could be debated due to the quality of those around him i would say he was above the rest of the players on the ground. Buckley got a lot of votes in losing sides himself.

Swan has played in strong teams since he became a prolific vote getter with very good players around him which may explain his ratio being slightly lower, would be interesting to see ratio by years as could be diluted by his early days or his later years.
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I was at the Ablett 53 possession game, it was a 97 point loss and I didn't walk away thinking Ablett had the most influence on the game, which is how I reckon votes should be adjudicated. I'd say the umpires fell in love with his stats without worrying about how he got them. The young Gold Coast players fed the ball back to him like your classic American quarterback. This would occur even if they were better placed to kick the footy forward themselves.
http://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/2012/10/coll-v-gcfc

Judd was another who always seemed to get 3 votes in losses against us, when at times he clearly wasn't best.

I did have a similar view with Swan and others that the start and twilight of their careers could have an effect, but thinking about it more Swan in his early days was lucky to get a game let alone poll Brownlow votes, likewise in his down 2014 he hardly polled. Swan first polled in 2006, which was his break out year, looking over stats the year that goes most against the ratio is 2010 where he polled 2, 8, 2. Pendlebury got 5, 3, 0 that year, so while they took votes from each other at times it wasn't always the way.

Here's the top 5 in our recent dominant years, interestingly the top 5 where also the top 5 polling clubs in the Brownlow

2010
Collingwood - 17 wins - 13, 18, 14
Geelong - 17 wins - 18, 16, 18
St Kilda - 15 wins - 15, 12, 14
Western Bulldogs - 14 wins - 14, 15, 14
Sydney - 13 wins - 15, 15, 13


2011
Collingwood - 20 wins - 20, 19, 13
Geelong - 19 wins - 14, 16, 17 (loss of Ablett ?)
Hawthorn - 18 wins - 18, 19, 12
West Coast - 17 wins - 17, 13, 16
Carlton - 14 wins - 18, 12, 14 (Judd 3 vote factor ?)
 

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The problem with the AFL Players MVP is that players are as prone to group think as anyone. And not all of them watch football outside of what they see at team meetings. So I can see many players voting for who they've heard had the best year, rather than their own opinions.

I agree that being rated by your peers is a huge compliment though.
 
When you have one player awarded the best in the comp out of 600+ players there are a whole lot of statistical variances that come into play and these will end up favouring one player over others in a pretty random way. As such using the metric of winning a Brownlow ( or MVP etc) as absolute prof of a players effectiveness is flawed. It is more accurate to look at votes over a career. A much better way of separating the wheat from the chaff.

It's no slight on Pendles that he hasn't won a Brownlow. Plenty of great players haven't. He ranks highly in the votes: game stat over his career which is a much better method of assessing whether he gets recognition form the umpires. He does. Mitchell and Selwood are 2 others who haven't won but do very well by career stats.
 
Shpeshal Ed said:
His lack of pace hurts his chances. Go back and look at how many slow midfielders win Brownlow medals in the last 15 years. Woewoedin. I think that's it. Even he was faster than Pendles though.

Umpires are dumb and easily fooled. Its the same reason Sam Mitchell hasn't won a medal. Both Mitchell and Pendlebury should have won a Brownlow by now, but neither of them is fast enough. Umpires notice fast midfielders. Or "burst" midfielders like Judd, Swan, Fyfe etc.

De Goey has a better chance of a Brownlow than Pendles does.
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I would disagree. The umps do a great job of assessing best players and their top 10 each year has a very strong correlation with the top 10 in the coaches award which is the other "best" award given to players. The players award is much less accurate and is more of a popularity contest. While Mitchell hasn't won one he has a very high level of votes:game over a career, identical to Swanny. That's a better method of assessing whether he is noticed over his career by the umpires. Figures show he is.
 

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Gone Critical said:
I would disagree. The umps do a great job of assessing best players and their top 10 each year has a very strong correlation with the top 10 in the coaches award which is the other "best" award given to players. The players award is much less accurate and is more of a popularity contest. While Mitchell hasn't won one he has a very high level of votes:game over a career, identical to Swanny. That's a better method of assessing whether he is noticed over his career by the umpires. Figures show he is.
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So the Coaches MVP is the Best 1 to win?
 
Gone Critical said:
I would disagree. The umps do a great job of assessing best players and their top 10 each year has a very strong correlation with the top 10 in the coaches award which is the other "best" award given to players. The players award is much less accurate and is more of a popularity contest. While Mitchell hasn't won one he has a very high level of votes:game over a career, identical to Swanny. That's a better method of assessing whether he is noticed over his career by the umpires. Figures show he is.
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I'd leave it with umpires.
Bottom line I trust their impartiality before smith, Wilson, Robinson.
If robbo voted he'd still give 3 votes to James hird somehow.

Scott has won a Norm Smith, that sounds ok
 
TradeDraft said:
So the Coaches MVP is the Best 1 to win?
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I would agree with this.
One thing we can be assured of is that all the head coaches see every game.
As pointed out previously the players don't.
And no doubt the umps are influenced by their previous supporter bias.
 

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Autopsy De-Pendlebury: Will the man ever fetch a Brownlow?

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