Dead Coach Bounce - Myth Busted

[Joose]

There is a prevailing myth that sacking a coach provides a dead coach bounce to the club and is likely to result in a win in the game immediately after the sacking.

I decided to apply my peerless analytical skills to this matter so I asked Grok to list all the sackings since 2000 and the result of the following game.


2002 Eade SYD lost
2004 Ayres ADE ?
2007 Daniher MEL lost
2007 Connolly FRE lost
2009 Laidley NME lost
2011 Bailey MEL lost
2011 Eade WBD won
2013 Neeld MEL lost
2013 Voss BRI lost
2015 Malthouse CAR lost
2015 Hird ESS lost
2017 Eade GCS lost
2019 Scott NME lost
2019 Bolton CAR won
2019 Richardson STK won
2019 Lyon FRE lost
2022 Noble NME lost
2023 Dew GCS won
2024 Simpson WCE lost

As you can see only 19% of the sackings resulted in a win the following week.

MYTH BUSTED.

 

[Kapow!!!]

Neat

 

[PerthBoy86]

Never seemed right either. Can remember from memory quite a few first coaches taking awhile to get their first win. Mini being one of course, and still on one.

 

[Ash1337]

There is a prevailing myth that sacking a coach provides a dead coach bounce to the club and is likely to result in a win in the game immediately after the sacking.

I decided to apply my peerless analytical skills to this matter so I asked Grok to list all the sackings since 2000 and the result of the following game.


2002 Eade SYD lost
2004 Ayres ADE ?
2007 Daniher MEL lost
2007 Connolly FRE lost
2009 Laidley NME lost
2011 Bailey MEL lost
2011 Eade WBD won
2013 Neeld MEL lost
2013 Voss BRI lost
2015 Malthouse CAR lost
2015 Hird ESS lost
2017 Eade GCS lost
2019 Scott NME lost
2019 Bolton CAR won
2019 Richardson STK won
2019 Lyon FRE lost
2022 Noble NME lost
2023 Dew GCS won
2024 Simpson WCE lost

As you can see only 19% of the sackings resulted in a win the following week.

MYTH BUSTED.

How many of those were against the bulldogs?

 

[moond0g]

There is a prevailing myth that sacking a coach provides a dead coach bounce to the club and is likely to result in a win in the game immediately after the sacking.

I decided to apply my peerless analytical skills to this matter so I asked Grok to list all the sackings since 2000 and the result of the following game.


2002 Eade SYD lost
2004 Ayres ADE ?
2007 Daniher MEL lost
2007 Connolly FRE lost
2009 Laidley NME lost
2011 Bailey MEL lost
2011 Eade WBD won
2013 Neeld MEL lost
2013 Voss BRI lost
2015 Malthouse CAR lost
2015 Hird ESS lost
2017 Eade GCS lost
2019 Scott NME lost
2019 Bolton CAR won
2019 Richardson STK won
2019 Lyon FRE lost
2022 Noble NME lost
2023 Dew GCS won
2024 Simpson WCE lost

As you can see only 19% of the sackings resulted in a win the following week.

MYTH BUSTED.

You'd assume that if a club is sacking a coach, they are generally losing many more games than they are winning. So, I think you'd probably be better off comparing that 19% win rate to the average winning % of the previous 5 games prior to sacking, for example.

That said, I think you're probably right that it doesn't have much impact.

 

[Cyclonus]

Isn't this more applicable to caretaker coaches?

 

[hilly]

There is a prevailing myth that sacking a coach provides a dead coach bounce to the club and is likely to result in a win in the game immediately after the sacking.

I decided to apply my peerless analytical skills to this matter so I asked Grok to list all the sackings since 2000 and the result of the following game.


2002 Eade SYD lost
2004 Ayres ADE ?
2007 Daniher MEL lost
2007 Connolly FRE lost
2009 Laidley NME lost
2011 Bailey MEL lost
2011 Eade WBD won
2013 Neeld MEL lost
2013 Voss BRI lost
2015 Malthouse CAR lost
2015 Hird ESS lost
2017 Eade GCS lost
2019 Scott NME lost
2019 Bolton CAR won
2019 Richardson STK won
2019 Lyon FRE lost
2022 Noble NME lost
2023 Dew GCS won
2024 Simpson WCE lost

As you can see only 19% of the sackings resulted in a win the following week.

MYTH BUSTED.

Noble 2022 is a win

 

[sportsmaniac89]

2007 Connolly got sacked, Freo won the next game

 

[StonesThrow]

You'd assume that if a club is sacking a coach, they are generally losing many more games than they are winning. So, I think you'd probably be better off comparing that 19% win rate to the average winning % of the previous 5 games prior to sacking, for example.

That said, I think you're probably right that it doesn't have much impact.

Yeah and add the next few games as well. Maybe they didn't win the first game, but they played better and won more of the next few than they otherwise would have.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Looks like OP is employing the "post something wrong and wait for somebody to correct it" strategy.

2002 Eade SYD won
2004 Ayres ADE won
2007 Daniher MEL won
2007 Connolly FRE won
2009 Laidley NM lost
2011 Bailey MEL lost
2011 Eade WB won
2013 Neeld MEL lost
2013 Voss BL won
2015 Malthouse CAR lost
2015 Hird ESS lost
2017 Eade GC lost
2019 Scott NM won
2019 Bolton CAR won
2019 Richardson STK won
2019 Lyon FRE lost
2022 Cameron GWS won
2022 Noble NM won
2023 Hardwick RIC lost
2023 Dew GC won
2024 Simpson WCE lost (but only by 13 points vs BL)

So it's more like a 60% success rate from those examples.

 

[Joose]

Looks like OP is employing the "post something wrong and wait for somebody to correct it" strategy.

2002 Eade SYD won
2004 Ayres ADE won
2007 Daniher MEL won
2007 Connolly FRE won
2009 Laidley NM lost
2011 Bailey MEL lost
2011 Eade WB won
2013 Neeld MEL lost
2013 Voss BL won
2015 Malthouse CAR lost
2015 Hird ESS lost
2017 Eade GC lost
2019 Scott NM won
2019 Bolton CAR won
2019 Richardson STK won
2019 Lyon FRE lost
2022 Cameron GWS won
2022 Noble NM won
2023 Hardwick RIC lost
2023 Dew GC won
2024 Simpson WCE lost (but only by 13 points vs BL)

So it's more like a 60% success rate from those examples.

Goddam Grok. The last time I am relying on AI.

I am going to write a very angry letter to Elon.

 

[Corkintheocean]

Looks like OP is employing the "post something wrong and wait for somebody to correct it" strategy.

2002 Eade SYD won
2004 Ayres ADE won
2007 Daniher MEL won
2007 Connolly FRE won
2009 Laidley NM lost
2011 Bailey MEL lost
2011 Eade WB won
2013 Neeld MEL lost
2013 Voss BL won
2015 Malthouse CAR lost
2015 Hird ESS lost
2017 Eade GC lost
2019 Scott NM won
2019 Bolton CAR won
2019 Richardson STK won
2019 Lyon FRE lost
2022 Cameron GWS won
2022 Noble NM won
2023 Hardwick RIC lost
2023 Dew GC won
2024 Simpson WCE lost (but only by 13 points vs BL)

So it's more like a 60% success rate from those examples.

Win rates for those teams would have been in the 0-35% range in the 10 weeks prior to sackings you'd imagine. So a 60% win rate is well overs.

(Yes I know you should also account for opponent strength in Wk 1 of new coach).

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Looks like OP is employing the "post something wrong and wait for somebody to correct it" strategy.

2002 Eade SYD won
2004 Ayres ADE won
2007 Daniher MEL won
2007 Connolly FRE won
2009 Laidley NM lost
2011 Bailey MEL lost
2011 Eade WB won
2013 Neeld MEL lost
2013 Voss BL won
2015 Malthouse CAR lost
2015 Hird ESS lost
2017 Eade GC lost
2019 Scott NM won
2019 Bolton CAR won
2019 Richardson STK won
2019 Lyon FRE lost
2022 Cameron GWS won
2022 Noble NM won
2023 Hardwick RIC lost
2023 Dew GC won
2024 Simpson WCE lost (but only by 13 points vs BL)

So it's more like a 60% success rate from those examples.

Thats actually quite remarkable considering obviously the team with the new coach obviously isn't a good one...

 

[Jeremias]

Never seemed right either. Can remember from memory quite a few first coaches taking awhile to get their first win. Mini being one of course, and still on one.

McQualter got his first win in his 2nd game in charge of Richmond. It has nothing to do with his coaching stint at West Coast.