Roast Death-Riding 2019: Collingwood, Gold Coast and Fremantle

Where do Collingwood finish in 2019?

  • Premiers

    Votes: 15 7.3%
  • Top 4

    Votes: 44 21.5%
  • 5 - 8

    Votes: 77 37.6%
  • 9 - 13

    Votes: 33 16.1%
  • 14 - 17

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Wooden Spoon: Pick 1, baby!

    Votes: 35 17.1%

  • Total voters
    205
  • This poll will close: .

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briztoon

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 28, 2015
7,347
6,667
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
I imagine Stephenson being out for 10 weeks won't do us any harm...
Our Collingwood pick is entirely dependant on how the Pies do come finals.

Now Stephenson being out might effect a couple of results, or possibly their path to the GF. But if the Pies are as good as what most of the media say, we'll need some (not so serious) injuries to key players to effect their finals campaign.
 

Viceregal

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 11, 2006
5,429
4,148
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Our Collingwood pick is entirely dependant on how the Pies do come finals.

Now Stephenson being out might effect a couple of results, or possibly their path to the GF. But if the Pies are as good as what most of the media say, we'll need some (not so serious) injuries to key players to effect their finals campaign.
Or a developing cover up that brings the game into disrepute and they lose all of their premiership points and banned from choosing in the first round of the draft (so we get 1 and they don't get to use our whatever) ... ;)
 

Dylan12

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 7, 2007
18,029
16,871
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Chelsea, Boston Red Sox
Wish the player we took instead of Stephenson had the standing across the AFL, was as as damaging and was as influential to our side as to what Stephenson clearly is to Collingwood. Such a shame.
 

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Jpw22511

Club Legend
Suspended
Mar 5, 2016
1,362
1,354
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Nuggets, Crows
Tough three weeks coming up for pies, I think they'll miss top 4 this year. All the better for our pick,
 

briztoon

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 28, 2015
7,347
6,667
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
Tough three weeks coming up for pies, I think they'll miss top 4 this year. All the better for our pick,
Top 4 or not top 4 has little bearing on the pick.

It’s purely where the finish come finals.
 

spotthedog1

Club Legend
Nov 13, 2011
2,064
2,958
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Top 4 or not top 4 has little bearing on the pick.

It’s purely where the finish come finals.
You're technically correct, but changes the narrative substantially.

5th-8th - one loss and you're out. Play every game.
Lose week 1 - pick 11-12
Lose week 2 - pick 13-14
Lose week 3 - pick 15-16
GF - pick 17-18

Top 4 is much harder to get an early pick. Can't get picks 11-12, and would require two consecutive losses to get picks 13-14. Win EITHER week 1 or week 2 and you are in the final four.

If you assume that every game is a 50/50 (I know, not accurate), then finishing 4th, there's a 25% chance of pick 14, and a 75% chance of pick 15+. Finish 5th, we have a 50% chance of pick 12, 25% chance of pick 13-14, and only a 25% chance of pick 15+.
 

spotthedog1

Club Legend
Nov 13, 2011
2,064
2,958
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Dream scenario (well, dream scenario with at least a slight chance of occurring). Pies finish 5th. We finish 6th. Pies draw one of Freo, Essendon, or after yesterday, even North. Very unpredictable teams who have shown an ability to turn it on when needed. Pies lose. We win.

I was pretty critical of us trading away our 1st pick, and ending up with a Pies pick instead. That was based on the assumption that we'd give up pick 6-7 and get pick 15-16. How much would I love to eat my hat on that criticism. We make the finals, those trades look decent. We end up surpassing the Pies, those trades are freaking amazing.
 

Tom14

Premiership Player
Oct 13, 2015
3,236
6,081
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Dream scenario (well, dream scenario with at least a slight chance of occurring). Pies finish 5th. We finish 6th. Pies draw one of Freo, Essendon, or after yesterday, even North. Very unpredictable teams who have shown an ability to turn it on when needed. Pies lose. We win.

I was pretty critical of us trading away our 1st pick, and ending up with a Pies pick instead. That was based on the assumption that we'd give up pick 6-7 and get pick 15-16. How much would I love to eat my hat on that criticism. We make the finals, those trades look decent. We end up surpassing the Pies, those trades are freaking amazing.
Regardless of the Pies portion if we make the finals the GC trade is a win for us. Say we finish with pick 12-14 going to GC, we'll get back pick 19/20 from them as I can't see them escaping the bottom 2 to go with pick 18/19 from last year which was the sweetener for Neale. That's a win regardless of where the Pies pick ends up.
 

jjami15

Premiership Player
Jul 16, 2011
4,111
4,464
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Pies to finish third play WC away, lose. A number of their players have mild injuries to hamstrings, quad, calf etc. Lose in the elimination final. Simple
 

TheBrownDog

Moderator
May 3, 2005
88,440
84,192
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Scuderia Ferrari, Dallas Cowboys
Pies to finish third play WC away, lose. A number of their players have mild injuries to hamstrings, quad, calf etc. Lose in the elimination final. Simple
Dayne Beams bets his entire estate on a Pies win, bankrupts himself.

The whole thing scares the hell out of Jaiden Stephenson who requests a trade to his beloved Lions to rehabilitate himself under the Allen Christensen program.
 
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