Oh, I know people will complain...You must be new around here.
Toast Deathriding Hawthorn 2023
- Thread starter Millky95
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Dec 17, 2003
- 16,797
- 9,818
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Glasgow Rangers, Liverpool, Storm.
What the hell, Brisbane?
Well this season isn't going according to plan
And to think we had to wait through the bye to experience this round!Yeah, this round blows
Effectively we need to finish above Hawthorn to get the better of the pick swaps right?
I have no confidence we will.
I have no confidence we will.
- Oct 14, 2016
- 2,533
- 3,133
- AFL Club
- Sydney
Anyone know the break-even from a points perspective?
Callipygian
Team Player
- May 18, 2021
- 1,684
- 3,684
- AFL Club
- Sydney
I think we're guaranteed to win the trade from a points perspective. Remember, we exchanged pick 18 (by the time we did the trade that was what it was) for pick 27 plus Hawks 2nd rounder plus Hawks 3rd rounder. We did give any of our picks from this year so it doesn't matter where we finish on the ladder. All we need (from a points perspective) is for the Hawks' 2nd and 3rd rounders to be worth more than sliding back 9 spots. Even if the Hawks win the flag we'll be well in front from a points perspective.
Pick 18 is worth 985 DVI points. Pick 27 is worth 703 DVI points. The difference is 282 points, which is equivalent to roughly pick 49. If Hawks win the flag their picks will be worth 502 + 220 = 722. If the Hawks finish 16th their picks will be worth 878 + 446 (before shenanigans) = 1324.
So that's the analysis from a points perspective.
But there are a lot of other factors. Some that occur to me:
- Hawthorn clearly valued Weddle.
- Hawthorn's list profile means they needed to get players in pronto to turbocharge their rebuild whereas our list has been rebuilt and we don't have that urgency.
- How we rated the players available last year
- How we rated this year's draft a year off
- The fact we knew there we had a number of promising Academy prospects this year and could use the points to match bids
- We also would have had an idea about how likely we are to need currency in the form of picks if we want to enter the trade market.
I think regardless of how Hawks do this was a great trade for us - unless we would have drafted Weddle and he turns in to an all-time gun - but there's no way we could have known that, lots of other clubs had already passed him over. Hopefully it will be an ok trade for the Hawks too. Certainly Weddle doesn't seem to be disappointing so far.
- Dec 17, 2003
- 16,797
- 9,818
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Glasgow Rangers, Liverpool, Storm.
Overrun by Tigers. Works against us more than anything. Can't see Hawks finishing higher or lower than where they are to be honest, but a Tigers win impacts our finals hopes.
- Dec 17, 2003
- 16,797
- 9,818
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Glasgow Rangers, Liverpool, Storm.
True. I won't be devastated if we don't make finals, either. We'd be making up the numbers if I were to be honest.
Pick 22. Great result considering hawthorns tail end season form. Cheers.
DGB's value has declined since his draft year. Would be depth rather than an improvement. Sad.
Yeah pretty good result along with pick 40. Still can't really believe we pulled off this trade, absolute steal.
Gives us a lot of options come draft time.
