Racing December Daily Punt - Jingle All The Way

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FallingLiefs

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Thread starter #602
Just Zerene the $800k purchase debuts tomorrow, paying $1.95 and needs to win to make the field for Magic Millions

Seems way too short for an unraced filly
Hard to know how much is hype and how much is actual ability but wouldn’t say $1.95 is too short for an unraced filly. The good ones destroy them regardless and the good ones start that short at 2 because everyone knows how good they are.
 

HeathComeBack

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Hard to know how much is hype and how much is actual ability but wouldn’t say $1.95 is too short for an unraced filly. The good ones destroy them regardless and the good ones start that short at 2 because everyone knows how good they are.
its too short for an early 2yo having its first start over 1200m. I am going to lay it on Betfair.
 

Viva la Mattner

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Some half decent fields going around tomorrow, I’m liking:

Doomben
R4. Oberland- e/w
R6. Outback Barbie
R8. Coldstone
R9. Stella Victoria and Femme Fireball

Randwick
R6. Alizee
R7. Arraignment- e/w
R8. After all That

Moonee Valley
Only the 1 bet at the goat track, purely because of runners MV success and that is in the last, R9 Our Luca
 
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Nice one.

Not much better than a day at the country races, used to me most weekends in another life.

Might sneak out to Nowra for the New Years twilight
Do it mate.
Was a good day. The old boy ended up having a winner. We might have carried on like he won the the Manikato but been a while between drinks.
He’s wrapped he’s got one in at The Valley today.
 

Gavin Excell

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Hard to know how much is hype and how much is actual ability but wouldn’t say $1.95 is too short for an unraced filly. The good ones destroy them regardless and the good ones start that short at 2 because everyone knows how good they are.
An article todays Sun suggests McEvoy made a comment at dinner with owners that JZ is pretty smart and the "word" then got out and has spread. I got a tip on this last week before it was scratched. If i got a tip then every other joker has as well.

1200m first up in a group 3 is a real test. Its into $1.65 now.

Be interesting to watch
 

Gavin Excell

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Do it mate.
Was a good day. The old boy ended up having a winner. We might have carried on like he won the the Manikato but been a while between drinks.
He’s wrapped he’s got one in at The Valley today.
Country racing is great. I live Melbourne and rarely go city meetings these days
 

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iluvparis

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Hard to know how much is hype and how much is actual ability but wouldn’t say $1.95 is too short for an unraced filly. The good ones destroy them regardless and the good ones start that short at 2 because everyone knows how good they are.
A mate of mine reckoned backing odds on 2yos before the turn of the year blind without any form was actually borderline profitable. So looks like this good thing has qualified by 2 days :D
 

FallingLiefs

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Thread starter #613
A mate of mine reckoned backing odds on 2yos before the turn of the year blind without any form was actually borderline profitable. So looks like this good thing has qualified by 2 days :D
not exactly a who's who but some reasonable 2yo sprinting types

From Within
Coorg
Trekking
Showtime
Jorda
Regimental Force
Chipanda
Calliope
Capitalist
Headwater
Ottoman
Bosnia
Sunny Dragon
Exosphere
Furnaces
Tempt Me Not
Sooboog
Chivalry
I Am Titanium

returns a loss but hard to say it's categorically a bad bet on SP alone. i'd rather take the $5 to win the MM because if it justifies $1.65 it should also be winning that.
 

FallingLiefs

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Thread starter #614
i've already been done twice this year by opposing whispers on 2yo's, were horrendously short on trial form both first up 1100m and walk in.

2yo races in general have such a difference between the best horses and worst the good ones find it hard to lose even with luck/other things against them. in general the average punter won't know if the talk is correct so really provide terrible betting races IMO.
 

Viva la Mattner

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Do it mate.
Was a good day. The old boy ended up having a winner. We might have carried on like he won the the Manikato but been a while between drinks.
He’s wrapped he’s got one in at The Valley today.
What’s the one at the Valley if you don’t mind sharing?
 

Gavin Excell

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A mate of mine reckoned backing odds on 2yos before the turn of the year blind without any form was actually borderline profitable. So looks like this good thing has qualified by 2 days :D
This was old timer punting Guru Don Scott

Pointed out that 2yos under even money had a sensational strike rate.

Yes Yes Yes next valley fits the bill
 
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