Racing - December Daily Punt - Jingle All The Way | Page 8 | BigFooty

Racing December Daily Punt - Jingle All The Way

Discussion in 'Punting Board' started by FallingLiefs, Nov 30, 2018.

  1. HeathComeBack

    HeathComeBack Premiership Player

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    Lol 85% . yep that will help them
     

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  2. IKnowtheDog

    IKnowtheDog Norm Smith Medallist

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    Gotta save something for the establishments.

    Could end up being a nuisance for those who use credit cards for gambling purposes and are in control of their finances.
     
  3. Jack Gun Cyril Stun

    Jack Gun Cyril Stun All Australian

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    Not chair anymore, but btp....
    The Golden Messara strikes again!

    Didn’t the QE get bumped up just in time for Its A Dundeel to waltz home.
    Gotta to give him credit, he must be chuckling to himself, ‘I’ve played them again’. Alan Jones prob in on it too.
     
  4. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    L O L

    No
     
  5. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    Relax - you'll get plenty of time to burn your money
     
  6. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    No this year you will be right - last year you were categorically proven wrong except in your own fantasy land.
     
  7. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    When was the last time a 3yo started less than 6/4 in an open age WFA G1?

    lay lay lay all day
     
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  8. Gavin Excell

    Gavin Excell Brownlow Medallist

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    Probably Myocard 1987 Tancred
     
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  9. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    and yet today your keen on Material Man who couldn't get the job done in easier races last year. Maybe if he had some Furyhk form he might go ok.
     
  10. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    deep field?

    edit nevermind was 4.
     
  11. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    Yes but the Winterbottom was won by a horse that needed 10 goes at the top level to finally win one.

    If Great Shot wins today then this will be the weakest for the second year running.
     

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  12. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    since 2010,

    13 3yo's have contested the race

    they've won it 3 times. 23% strike rate
    in total thats 37% of the recent KT's
    they did not contest one, so 43% KT's with a 3yo in it has been won by one.


    since the race inception

    it has been won 16 times by 3yo's (41 races) ie 39% of the time.
    6 times the guineas winner has backed up here and won, compared to just the 5 railway winners.

    i'm all laying the hype 3yo's its just AQ has been a backable price for 3 starts in a row mainly thanks to people having nfi about fillies vs colts last week.
     
  13. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    you focus to much on winners, Viddora underperformed last year, Furyhk run second by 1.5L, if furyhk gets within 1.5L of BHB/Pounamu or Material Man last year i'd have been shocked. Viddora is better than what she ran in the winterbottom last year, at least i'd hope so.
     
  14. Viva la Mattner

    Viva la Mattner Premiership Player

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    Think Arcadia Queen gets the job done. 50kg and Pike is huge

    Granted you are correct Paris $2.40 is poison, I'm on at $4.40 antepost happy enough with that.

    Will have something small E/W on Mister Sea Wolf and Iconoclasm
     
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  15. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    yes $4-$5 was very generous hopefully a few on the board got on.
     
  16. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    FWIW prices for KT

    upload_2018-12-8_7-2-54.png

    actually surprised how short i have AQ I was expecting 2.60-2.70
     
  17. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    Sorry wut!?! - Viddora under performed in winning last year yet you thought it was an $8-$9 shot on the day? o_O You really do have the power of Goebbels in manipulating story lines.
     
  18. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    Lol $2.14 - only 3yo fapping Liefzy could come up with that price.
     
  19. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    No one is saying she can't win - we are just saying she is absolute poison unders.
     
  20. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    you love a profile.

    43% of guineas have been won by 3yo's when they contest them.

    that's $2.30
     
  21. iluvparis

    iluvparis Premium Platinum

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    One filly has won in the history of the race - so she should be about 40/1 :thumbsu:
     
  22. Viva la Mattner

    Viva la Mattner Premiership Player

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    My fancys today:

    Rosehill
    R7- Albumin

    Doomben
    R3- Sofie's Gold Class
    R7- Coldstone
    R8- Our Crown Mistress & Plumaro

    Morphettville
    R5- Frankel My Dear - E/W
    R6- Tildy Lad
    R7- Lope dear Capo E/W
    R8- Lady of Crebilly
     
  23. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    this happens in like 80% of races. you think winx runs close to her top every start? had her as below

    6.60, SP was 5.60.

    in retrospect she ran as i expected although not at her top which rarely happens. i should have been harder on State Solicitor and with the hard drift on SS i could have pushed him out to 10's by the time the race jumped. so by rights should have had her neutral on prices.

    FWIW voodoo lad underperformed for his top last week too but within normal range. i would say viddora was 1-1.5L below what she could do.
     
  24. FallingLiefs

    FallingLiefs Brownlow Medallist

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    3 have contested it since the oaks was moved to april and not directly before the KT. (Almost 20 years) prior to that i assume not many ran in it.the fillies program is very hard to get here.

    4th, 5th, 1st never beaten more than 2L
     
  25. come on oliver

    come on oliver Team Captain

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    They are keen on Charossa in the last. Are expecting it to run very well. They lost the stablemate mondo magic during the week and wanting a win.
     
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