Yep, I'm Luke McAlister. Justifiably I see you're not too happy with how things have panned out.
The good news is that it quite simply won't. Could end up worse, could end up better - but nobody is ever right this far out. I'll just address some comments and stick around if there's any follow up comments/questions. I am sorry to have disappointed you guys though!
I'd have thought the same but I got some good mail that the expansion clubs are looking at him too. I expect GWS to target needs and upside above all else - their list is in a position where they can afford to take some risks and look at genuine potential stars as opposed to safe bets. Cockatoo is not only a list fit but has upside unmatched in this crop. My mail could be wrong, but unfortunately it seems to have ****** things up a bit for you guys in my phantom.
tl;dr: boring justification of ahern being meh but who i think you'd take not who i would take and hamilton/wigg/abbott all being excellent selections
I'm a South Australian. If anything I hate Victorian clubs. The original 6 non Vic sides all have soft spots for me.
Unlike some of the other phantom drafters - I believe it's necessary to be harsh within profiles. One phantom drafter who I shall not name writes their profiles as if every player is going to be a success. That's not the case. Very few become A grade. A small amount become B grade, a few become role players and the rest do **** all. I believe risk vs reward is an under-covered element in profiles so I like to focus on it. At times I give the illusion of harshness when I actually rate the player.
Ahern is not someone I particularly rate though. Low risk vs reward type who I'm very certain will play 100 games but also very certain he won't make all australian or anything. I think he'll be roughly as good as Luke Dahlhaus is right now. If you wouldn't give pick 11 for Luke Dahlhaus, you're a victim of 'pickflation thinking' - Ahern is smoother and silkier than Dahlhaus but less crash and bash.
All year I've been penciling in Pickett -> WCE. Geelong moving up to 10 as well as Pickett types fitting a need for Collingwood, GWS and GC has seen these outside midfielders flood up the order in place of the KPPs who previously would have been there and allowing Pickett to slip. Before trade week you were in a very advantageous position to grab a Cockatoo/Pickett or even Laverde type. You were in the perfect range for a team with fantastic KPP stocks. Trade week ****** you up the ass unfortunately and as such it limited the options.
Midfield and small defense were the two areas I thought need a bit of a boost. With the mids, both inside and out did need a little bit of help. I rate Waterman very highly and also believe he's a fantastic list fit. It came down to Garlett, Ahern, Weller and Blakely for mine. Weller from what I've heard is being a bit twattish and wants to go to Victoria. Weller while excellent doesn't provide as much run as he should and a team like you guys I believe should be targetting runners. With Waterman coming I felt in a close call I'd be looking outside which left it as Ahern v Garlett. I'd personally have picked Garlett because I rate him higher however for the phantom it's about modeling what I think would happen and I couldn't see a club passing up Ahern over Garlett. Ahern is just rated higher across the board.
With new information coming out every day though there's every chance someone like Wright moves back in to the top 10 which sends a Pickett/Langford/Cockatoo type out.
Hamilton presents great value at 32. I have to give the illusion of not being biased towards SA prospects when really - I rate them all very highly. In the second round you're not looking to get dynasty players, you're looking to get players who either can play a role or have high risk but some reward. Hamilton offers both a role and not as much risk. He hasn't received the exposure due to being from SA and having average games when televised in the champs but his games before then were elite. He isn't a dominant runner, accumulator or kicker which is where the comment about him lacking a dominant aspect came from but what he is is elite by hand, classy, poised and possesses excellent vision. To an extent he has that rare ability to slow the game down around him.
Wigg at 51 too presents excellent value as a potential outside midfielder/small back. You don't expect dynasty players that late and I worry about Wigg's size/athleticism combo but no player after 50 is well rounded. The upside he offers is well worth it.
Abbott I'd say most of you know. I suspect you'll take him - and he'd be a great pick. I'd be picking him at 35 as a Crows fan. His size/athleticim/boot combination is unmatched by every player in the crop bar Petracca. Yeah, he's not the finished product but that alone is exciting enough to take the punt as if it all comes together he's going to be someone worth watching.
I personally rate the draft I've given you a good one. Aside from Ahern, I really think the Hamilton/Wigg/Abbott/Waterman rounds 2-5 is probably the best out of any club. It's just Ahern that's the issue (and one I agree with). Here's hoping things fall a little differently and Nakia/Pickett slip
I've copped a bit of flak for that comment from Eagles fans across the year and I do get why.
Like I'm harsh on draftees, I'm also harsh on the definition of elite. Some people have 5-10 elite players per side. I have one or two. Right now I only consider Franklin and Roughead elite/A grade. Maybe Hawkins when he's fully fit. Cloke and N. Riewoldt at their best are too. I don't intend to start a Kennedy chest beating war but I don't have him in that company purely because I don't feel he's truly as dominant as them. I also question the spread of his goals/performances between lower teams and higher teams. I could be wrong but I'd be interested to see his % of goals against bottom 6-10 sides v top 8 sides compared against other elite KPFs.
I rate him, but I don't have him top 3-5 in the league. Anyone outside that for me is in the second tier. I'm harsh when assessing players as elite/A-grade.