Delisting 2008

[KUNG FU]

I think everyone is being a little premature with delisting Bassett, Edwards and Burton, although I agree they are possibilities for retirement.

I think we will lose Jericho, Doughty, Campbell & Massie. Maybe a retirement.

 

[Vader]

Yes, but a yearly tradition none the less. If you go back over previous years predictions it makes for some interesting, funny and for the most part very inaccurate reading.

Just going over my own posts from last year and I wasn't too far off the money...

Actually, the predictions in the whole "Our ageing List" thread (from July 2007) turned out fairly accurate across the board.

From what I have read, this is looking like being a fairly weak draft. As such, we will probably not be taking more than four draftees. One of these is likely to be the Texas Ranger. McIntyre's promotion will be made permanent, meaning that we have to release 5 players.

I would agree with SpringChoke's assessment (ref post #39) as to who is "tier one" and who is not.

As I see it, there are two obvious departures:
Ricciuto - I will be EXTREMELY surprised if he does not retire at the end of the season. He is a pale shadow of his former self and does not deserve to spend another season wrestling with his own body.
Jericho - Maybe we can find someone stupid enough to take him off our hands, but otherwise he must be delisted. No questions asked, and I doubt there would be any who would argue against this course of action.

Now we get into the tougher calls:
Torney - Is playing excellent football and would feel hard done by, but if the Crows are true to their word then he must be gone. Having turned 30 last month, and not being a "tier one player" he must be delisted. It's a harsh call, but something which needs to be done in the name of "list management".
Biglands - His future is out of his hands, depending upon the outcome of trades which may potentially involve our younger ruckmen. If both Meesen & Griffin depart, as part of a potential Pavlich trade, then he will be retained. If one or both are retained, Biglands would be delisted - despite being contracted for 2008.

This still leaves one more departure required. The options are as follows:
Meesen - May be traded, but only at his own request.
Bode - Perpetually injury prone, he may be at risk given the precedent set by the club's handling of Welsh last year.
Doughty - Everyone's favourite whipping boy.
Welsh, Perrie - Underperforming forwards.

However, if I had to place money on it, I would bet on:
Mattner - We all know he's one of the best wingmen in the AFL, yet Craig insists on playing him in defence. Eminently unsuited to this position, he has now been dropped to the SANFL and is clearly on the outer with the coach. I have little doubt that Mattner would attract significant interest from other clubs, so trading (rather than delisting) may be an option. Anybody care to place a wager on his future?

For what it's worth, I would expect Goodwin & Edwards to retire at the end of 2008, with Macca following in 2009. Not sure about the longevity of Bassett.

The survival of Jericho is the obvious error, but hands up anyone who honestley expected him to be retained? I still can't see why the club has stuck with him.

Ditto the retention of Biglands. Was always in some doubt, due to the fact that he was contracted for 2008 anyway. Departure of Hudson put his retention beyond doubt.

Prediction made before Perrie's form and enthusiasm for the game collapsed.

And from the "List Management - Looking to the Future" thread (May 2007):

A few things....

Firstly, we need to have a minimum of 3 vacancies on our list by the time the draft is conducted. This does not include rookies who are retained on the rookie list, but every rookie we decide to upgrade to the senior list means another player who needs to be delisted/traded. Ditto NSW Scholarship players (Taylor Walker), we have to have a minimum of three "live" selections on draft day.

For what it's worth, I would definitely look at re-drafting Chad Gibson - albeit as a rookie - if he can remain fit and plays well consistently for Norwood in the SANFL.

And so to the list of potential departures:

Mark Ricciuto (retire): Is there anyone here who seriously expects him to continue playing in 2008? Will retire with one of the biggest farewell parties seen in a long time.

Luke Jericho (delist): Currently playing simply to see if he has what it takes to make it. Obviously on his last chance, as stated by both player & coach. Most of us expect him to be delisted (can't see anyone being interested in a trade).

Kris Massie (delist): Has been a "depth" player for us over the last couple of years, but the kids have now matured to the level where he is surplus to requirements. At 26 years of age, 27 in under a fortnight, we would be struggling to find him a new home. Will almost certainly be delisted.

Scott Welsh (delist): Was placed on a 1-year performance based contract and to date has only "performed" in two of 7 games. Would have to be skating on very thin ice, with the ice getting increasingly thinner if/when he suffers the inevitable injuries (given that he traditionally misses 1/3 of each season through injury). Likely delisting.

Ken McGregor (delist): If he can't make our current injury depleted lineup, what chance does he have next year when we have Sellar, Tippett, Griffin & Hentschel all looking for spots in the forward line (not to mention Gill)? Not sure what his contractual status is, but Grug could be in serious danger if he's out of contract.

John Meesen (trade): With Hudson, Maric and Griffin all ahead of him in the pecking order, it may be in Meesen's best interests to request a trade. The final decision though will be his - he will certainly be retained if he wishes to stay.

Nick Gill (delist): May well be retained, especially if Welsh and/or McGregor get the axe. Was drafted as coverage for Hentshell, and with his return unlikely before mid-2008 at best (if ever) he may well be retained until the younger KPP forwards are ready to play at the highest level. However, if he continues to break down he will almost certainly be delisted.

Rhett Biglands (delist): Contracted for 2008, he can forget about playing in the ruck. Would be retained as a backup for Hudson and to provide another forward option (especially if Welsh and/or McGregor are chopped). Highly unlikely to be playing in 2009, but may survive to play in 2008.

Trent Hentschell (delist): Out of contract at the end of 2007. His future depends entirely upon the surgeon's prognosis. If the doc says he'll make a full recovery, then he will be retained. Anything less than that and his number may be up.

Bernie Vince (trade/delist): Unlikely to be delisted, though a trade might be a possibility. Has been given plenty of opportunities this year, but has really shown very little. Is currently playing, but only due to having so many senior players MIA. Will probably be given another 12 months to show his wares, departing at the end of 2008 if he hasn't shown anything at the senior level.

Jason Torney (delist): Turns 30 next month and the club have stated that they will not retain any player aged 30+ unless they are "tier 1" players. Torney is a very good player and is still performing well, he does not IMHO deserve to be cut. However, I do not rate him as "tier 1" (this would be reserved for the likes of Roo, Goody, Edwards, Macca & Rutten). As such, his delisting needs to be considered as a distinct possibility.

Bryce Campbell: With the list above, he's safe as houses for 2007 (might be gone though at the end of 2008).

Got a few more wrong in this one. Massie, Gill & McGregor all survived. Remember this was before Gill broke into the team, which only occurred in mid-July.

And going back all the way to 2006, before a ball had even been bounced in season 2007... The "2007 Departures?" thread (October 2006).

With the 2006 senior list delistings now apparently completed (though no OFFICIAL notification has been given regarding the fate of our three remaining rookies) let us cast our eyes forward 12 months to see who we expect to be leaving then.

I know I'm going to get comments like "it's far too early to be starting these kinds of threads", but let's face it - it's not like there's a whole lot of discussion going on here this week anyway.

By the end of the 2007 season we will have seven players aged 30+ - Ricciuto (32), McLeod (31), Edwards (31), Bassett (30), Goodwin (30), Torney (30), Biglands (30). Brett Burton will be 29, with another five players aged 28.

Port showed us in 2005 that going into a new season with such an old list is fraught with dangers. Ideally, we would like to see at least two (if not three) of these players retire. Not so ideal is the fact that these are our best players and have been for a decade.

Retirements
Mark Ricciuto - The language coming from the club, both from him at the Club Champion dinner and Johncock in a subsequent interview, indicates that he will be approaching 2007 as if it were his last year. He will be remembered as Adelaide's greatest ever player. One can only hope that his departure is managed with greater dignity than Ben Hart's. The fact that Roo appears to be already accepting the situation would indicate that this will be the case.

Rhett Biglands - This is a big call, especially considering the fact that he won't even play in 2007 due to his knee injury. To a certain extent, his fate is now out of his hands and will be determined by the performances of Maric and Meesen next year. Should they cement their positions in the side, then there would be no place left for Biglands (other than "backup" ruckman) and he (and the club) would have to consider his position on the list. He is contracted for 2008, but this would not be an issue if he were to retire (rather than being pushed).

Jason Torney - His departure would be driven more by his inability to consistently get on the park, owing to the fact that he is one of Adelaide's most injury prone players. Certainly his 2006 form (when he did play) showed no reason for him to retire. Adelaide would be loathe to hang on to players aged 30+ who have a long history of injury.

Last Chance Saloon
These are the players who are playing for their careers in 2007. Fail and they could be out on their ear.

Scott Welsh - The club has made his position clear. He has to get his body right and play consistently well in 2007 in order to keep his position. In his favour is the lack of young forward talent coming through - though that could well change after next month's draft.

Luke Jericho - Most of us can't believe he's still on the list. The only defence I've ever heard for his retention is "12 months ago we were all calling for the head of players X,Y and Z - look how wrong we were". This pea hearted player has got to be on his last chance. So far he's had 4 years on the list for only 15 games (all of which were played in 2004). It's better than Matthew Smith's record, but not by much.

Kris Massie - Despite playing well at times this year, he is still only a fringe member of the team. I suspect that from now on he will always be only one bad season away from being delisted.

John Hinge - Many on this board were calling for his blood at the end of this season. It didn't happen. Hart's departure, together with Torney's history of injury, indicates that Hinge may well get a chance this year. Should he fail to seize this opportunity then he may well be shown the door.

Have I missed anyone? Feel free to discuss.

Reasoning on Torney wrong, but this has to be one of the first posts to correctly predict his departure. Once again, Massie, Biglands & Jericho unexpected survivors.

 

[IddyBiddy]

Not too bad at all Vadar.... what position does your chystal ball suggest we'll finish this year?..lotto numbers would be handy also

 

[Vader]

Not too bad at all Vadar.... what position does your chystal ball suggest we'll finish this year?..lotto numbers would be handy also

Tipping 12th.

Lotto numbers will be 4, 16, 18, 25, 36 and 1.

 

[vlbl]

I personally think this year will see more delistings and retirements, rather then too much activity on trade day.

Retirements: Players who would be delisted but the club will 'allow' them to retire.
Basset - He is getting on now 32 y/o from the top of my head, and with Moran, Stevens, Symes and maybe Ottens in the future playing his role as a rebounding 3rd tall option in defense i don't think he will survive past season. Has given great service to the club over a long time, but i personally think its time to move on.
Edwards - The 2nd of the 4 musketeers who will most likely be moved to the bench as the season goes on, due to the hopeful emergence of Douglas as a quality afl midfielder. Like basset his service to the club can never be underestimated, from my point of view he it would be the best thing for the club and maybe himself to pass the baton on, as i cant see us winning a flag in the next 2 years, considering the 'rebuilding' path we're taking.

Delisted/Traded:
Doughty (Delisted) - No Brainer, brings very little to the team, and will struggle to hold a place with douglas and vince getting more time in the middle this season.
Jericho (Traded) - There was some interest from carlton, might have happened if not for judd. If her gets more game time this year which he should, and builds up some 'value' then we might be in good position in the so-called super draft, as i can't see him in our future forward line plans.
Massie (Delisted) - Torney syndrome.
Biglands (Delisted) - He may want to play on, but the fact of the matter is we have 3 if not 4 promising ruckmen in the squad in Tippet, Maric, Griffin and Moran. Keeping Biglands will only slow their development and having 2 vacant spots will drive then to compete harder and become better (atleast in theory) to take the no1. ruck position.
Campbell/Shirley (Delisted) - Depends on who has the 'worse' season, as i see gallman being our next tagger and the need for shirley might deteriorate substantially as the season goes on. With campbell if he can't establish himself in the 22, then i would have some question marks over him, mainly due to the face we drafted so many mids last year.

I personally think we will have around 7 delistings/trades/retirements next season, with maybe 2 rookie elevations, so that will leave us with 5 in the 'super' draft.

Exciting times indeed for the club in the next couple of years, can't wait to see how things unravel.

 

[cocka]

Just going over my own posts from last year and I wasn't too far off the money...

Didn't know you played the trumpet Vader

 

[Vader]

Didn't know you played the trumpet Vader

It's often interesting to look back to see what we wrote in the past, making bold predictions about the future - and seeing how Nostradamus-like we were. Not just myself, but all posters in those threads. It's also natural to have a bit of self interest .

To be completely honest, most of the changes made at the end of the year were fairly predictable. The only ones which did not fall into this category were Torney & Pfeiffer. Even then, Torney's departure was not a complete surprise given the club's stated policy towards players approaching their 30th birthdays.

The biggest surprises were in those who survived - notably Biglands & Jericho. Biglands survived because of Hudson's defection, brought about by events which occurred quite late in the season. I can only assume that Jericho has pictures of someone high up in the AFC hierarchy, placing them in a very compromising position.

Oh, and for the record, I DID play the trumpet for a couple of years back in high school. Haven't played one for 20 years now though and can't get a sound out of it when I try (have lost the knack of vibrating my lips properly). That said, it was one we hired from the school, so I was never one to blow my own trumpet.

 

[cocka]

Oh, and for the record, I DID play the trumpet for a couple of years back in high school. Haven't played one for 20 years now though and can't get a sound out of it when I try (have lost the knack of vibrating my lips properly). That said, it was one we hired from the school, so I was never one to blow my own trumpet.

Ha ha Good Work

 

[crowugoodthing]

IMO there will be no retirements at the end of this season.

Goodwin - 2- 3 more years
Bassett - 2 more years
McLeod - 2 -3 more years
Edwards - 2 more years

Therefore I predict the following will be delisted at years end;

Jericho
Doughty
Shirley
Campbell

Those that are under the gun;

Massie
Hentschel (all depends on how he comes back)
Gallam (see J. Hinge)
Also you would think one of the recent draftees will not make the grade and we will make a similar call like we did with Obst.

This leaving us with 5 - 6 picks depending on how our rookies go.

 

[Vader]

IMO there will be no retirements at the end of this season.

Goodwin - 2- 3 more years
Bassett - 2 more years
McLeod - 2 -3 more years
Edwards - 2 more years

That's an interesting call.

I would think that they would like to stagger the retirements of the four musketeers over as great a period as possible. My best guess:
2006: Ricciuto
2007: Edwards
2008: Goodwin
2009: McLeod

Then again, the end can come VERY quickly once they get past 30 - and these guys have all celebrated their 31st birthdays.

Edwards was showing signs of slowing down & losing his edge last year.

Would not be at all surprised to see McLeod and Goodwin both go in 2009.

As for Bassett... I'm just not sure. I have a hunch 2008 may be his last season, but he may keep going into 2009.

 

[macca23]

That's an interesting call.

I would think that they would like to stagger the retirements of the four musketeers over as great a period as possible. My best guess:
2006: Ricciuto
2007: Edwards
2008: Goodwin
2009: McLeod

These are obviously all a year out - right Vader??

2007: Ricciuto actually retired in this year.

2008 for Edwards

2009 for Goodwin

2010 for McLeod

Yes??

 

[crows dude]

IMO there will be no retirements at the end of this season.

Goodwin - 2- 3 more years
Bassett - 2 more years
McLeod - 2 -3 more years
Edwards - 2 more years

Therefore I predict the following will be delisted at years end;

Jericho
Doughty
Shirley
Campbell

Those that are under the gun;

Massie
Hentschel (all depends on how he comes back)
Gallam (see J. Hinge)
Also you would think one of the recent draftees will not make the grade and we will make a similar call like we did with Obst.

This leaving us with 5 - 6 picks depending on how our rookies go.

No Way will Campbell be delisted and nor should he be. He has had one year on the list in which he was injured for a lot of it and didnt have a Pre Season due to his Shoulder Surgery.

With a full Pre-Season he will show you all what he can do and you will grow to love him. Especially when he lays one of his Bone Crunching tackles.

 

[Vader]

These are obviously all a year out - right Vader??

2007: Ricciuto actually retired in this year.

2008 for Edwards

2009 for Goodwin

2010 for McLeod

Yes??

Correct. Stuffed up, all one year out. The idea of staggering them is the most important thing though.

 

[Mismatched]

A lot is up in the air at this stage, but here's my guess:
Retirements:
Basset - if he can't put a full year together then he might call it quits/given a little push

Delistments:
Doughty - No explaination needed
Massie - Useful, but will become redundant with younger blokes coming through
Shirley - I love his work ethic, but he has to be at his best to warrant a spot in the side and I think may just get the push in favour of blooding younger players
Jericho - Would love him to fulfil his potential, but at the moment I just don't see this happening.
Biglands - May struggle to hold his spot if Griffen and Maric come on well this year, however if they don't he will get another year.

Other possibilities at this stage are Burton(depending on injury) and Cambell.

 

[Sparno17]

My Two Cents....

Doughty - enough said

Massie - Good young options to cover him; Gallman, Otten etc

Jericho - Assuming he shows nothing

Shirley - Too much young midfield talent that would be held back if he stays. Losing him would mean a loss of a tagger though. Who would be the replacment. Gallman is the one earmarked but i like him down back. Maybe edwards in his last days takes on this role???

Campbell - Needs a big year to impress and put his name in front of douglas, vince, porpylzia etc

If we are to do another "obst" ill put my money on Kite. Unfair call considering we havnt even seen him play yet. In all seriousness, if sellar, tippet and walker progress as we hope, Hentschel makes a full recovery and Otten is becomes a dangerous utility (bad comparison but adam goodes like) where does kite sit? Consider we are more than likley to draft at least two KPP buy 2010 when those mentioned above will be hitting there straps.

That's 5-6 changes.
4-5 picks in a strong draft and one rookie promotion (Patrenko )

 

[Ticktak]

A lot is up in the air at this stage, but here's my guess:

Delistments:
Biglands - May struggle to hold his spot if Griffen and Maric come on well this year, however if they don't he will get another year.

They would both have to have awesome years for this to happen. Just too big a risk as Biglands is our only AFL proven ruckman on our list at this time. He will at least be there for 2009 season (barring injury).