Demographic statistics

[Prince Imperial]

I don't agree that the value of the Docklands will be worth only the land value in 2025. Of course though that would be true if the AFL went to sell it and wasn't going to play matches there but its value can and should be based on the holding of football matches there.

I agree that the stadium will require a refurbishment when the AFL takes control but that doesn't mean the building structure will be of no value. I'm no expert on building depreciation but I do know that the ATO allows owners of new buildings to depreciate them over a period of 40 years at 2.5% per annum. If that's the case the stadium will have a value of around $170m (in 2000 terms) in 2025 as it originally cost $465m to constuct.

Even though the AFL may have to fund an upgrade similar to the $55m being spent on the MCG Southern Stand, the stadium will still have the ability to be a substantial profit generator for the League even taking into account better stadium returns to the tenant clubs. As well as being the headquarters of the AFL (and thus giving a saving on rental costs) the AFL will also benefit from a wide range of income streams (naming rights, parking, stadium memberships, signage, corporate hospitality, catering, share of reserved seating and admission sales, concerts and other sporting events etc).

The great thing about the stadium is that it is very well designed in sharp contrast to the appalling Waverley Park which was hopeless from a viewing perspective (as well as location). For a $30m investment in 2000, it's the deal of the century for the AFL and all clubs will benefit from 2025 from the AFL ownership (including those who don't play there). Of course the more Victorian clubs around to play there the greater the benefit will be to the League.

 

[Rob]

I don't agree that the value of the Docklands will be worth only the land value in 2025. Of course though that would be true if the AFL went to sell it and wasn't going to play matches there but its value can and should be based on the holding of football matches there.

I agree that the stadium will require a refurbishment when the AFL takes control but that doesn't mean the building structure will be of no value. I'm no expert on building depreciation but I do know that the ATO allows owners of new buildings to depreciate them over a period of 40 years at 2.5% per annum. If that's the case the stadium will have a value of around $170m (in 2000 terms) in 2025 as it originally cost $465m to constuct.

I don't disagree with what you're saying, but what I originally said (2 years ago) was in response to some ridiculous comments suggesting that my club was in some way going to benefit from AFL ownership of the ground.
Given my club will never play home games there, the only way we could benefit is if the ground was sold. Hence why it's resale value was relevant. I wasn't suggesting the structure itself was worth nothing to the AFL, but it's most likely going to be worth nothing to clubs that don't play home games there.

 

[Prince Imperial]

I don't disagree with what you're saying, but what I originally said (2 years ago) was in response to some ridiculous comments suggesting that my club was in some way going to benefit from AFL ownership of the ground.
Given my club will never play home games there, the only way we could benefit is if the ground was sold. Hence why it's resale value was relevant. I wasn't suggesting the structure itself was worth nothing to the AFL, but it's most likely going to be worth nothing to clubs that don't play home games there.

Your club benefits if the AFL benefits as this allows the AFL to increase its distributions to all clubs (as well as helping junior development etc.). The savings from the AFL not having to lease office space for its headquarters will be substantial and whilst I expect tenant clubs will get substantially better deals, the income streams that I mentioned above will also indirectly benefit all clubs. How much I can't tell you but I'm sure the AFL will keep a sizeable amount of the stadium profits rather than just let them all go to the tenant clubs.

And here's something you heard here first; in 2025 I strongly predict that all those MCG clubs will be lobbying for matches at Docklands at the expense of NM, StK and the WB! I look forward to telling them to get stuffed!

 

[Hill2Pav]

Could that be because the Vic taxpayer contributes to the upkeep of the G not Etihad, e.g pumping in $30 mil to the latest upgrade?

You seem to believe the cost of capital is $nil .. why is the break even SO different?

The MCC currently has $300 million in debt for its capital costs (and will increase with the latest announcement), less than the $180 million owed on Eithad.

 

[Kwality]

The MCC currently has $300 million in debt for its capital costs (and will increase with the latest announcement), less than the $180 million owed on Eithad.

1.Not sure cost of capital & debt/taxpayer subsidies are the same.
2.Why is the break even SO different.

 

[PumpyChowdown]

Getting back to the ABS PDF that was in the OP...extremely interesting; especially the long term projections. It seems likely that in 2051 Queensland will be the second most populous state, just behind NSW. Brisbane will have 4.5 million people and I would imagine that the Sunshine Coast to the north, Ipswich to the west, Brisbane in the middle and the Gold Coast south will eventually merge into a megalopolis (it's already half way there).

The growth in cities such as Cairns, Townsville, Rockhampton and Mackay is also very interesting.

Not too sure what this means for AFL's future, but the demographics are rapidly changing in Qld.

What's also very interesting to note is that Qld, along with WA has by far the highest net immigration from other states. Seems like everyone is escaping NSW - and to a lesser extent Vic and SA - but everyone from overseas is heading to Melbourne and Sydney (not rural regions).

These statistics clearly endorse the introduction of the SUNS as a team, they can only go from strength to strength. It does make me wonder though whether a third or even fourth team will be needed in Qld within the next 40 years. Maybe a relocated Victorian team? Sunshine Coast Bulldogs? North Queensland Kangaroos? Frankly, I see that as a very real possibility in the long term.

 

[Pessimistic]

Your club benefits if the AFL benefits as this allows the AFL to increase its distributions to all clubs (as well as helping junior development etc.). The savings from the AFL not having to lease office space for its headquarters will be substantial and whilst I expect tenant clubs will get substantially better deals, the income streams that I mentioned above will also indirectly benefit all clubs. How much I can't tell you but I'm sure the AFL will keep a sizeable amount of the stadium profits rather than just let them all go to the tenant clubs.

And here's something you heard here first; in 2025 I strongly predict that all those MCG clubs will be lobbying for matches at Docklands at the expense of NM, StK and the WB! I look forward to telling them to get stuffed!

Are you indicating tha low profitability for home teams, especially wioth lower drawing crowds is not structural or design faults, but profit taking by the owners ?

I tend to believe its design fault.

Even though it was obvious to lots of people that games agaisnt non melbourne teams would draw small crowds, they never seriously considering design in it so it can be run leaner for smaller crowds.

problem is they were so hell-bent on re-educating the victorian public into reserving seats they left it as it is so they could p'punish' lower value customers by sending them up to the top deck.

For mine its not a god-send, but a mill-stone on victorian AFL football

 

[Prince Imperial]

Are you indicating tha low profitability for home teams, especially wioth lower drawing crowds is not structural or design faults, but profit taking by the owners ?

I tend to believe its design fault.

Even though it was obvious to lots of people that games agaisnt non melbourne teams would draw small crowds, they never seriously considering design in it so it can be run leaner for smaller crowds.

problem is they were so hell-bent on re-educating the victorian public into reserving seats they left it as it is so they could p'punish' lower value customers by sending them up to the top deck.

For mine its not a god-send, but a mill-stone on victorian AFL football

Hmmm. Always difficult for any of us to comment on the financial workings of the stadium as these are never published as they are commerical-in-confidence. However, the current operators bought the management rights for about $330m around 2006 so there should be a large improvement for the tenant clubs and the AFL even taking into account the need to refurbish the venue.

The way Level 1 is operated currently requires the employment of 48 staff for each bay and this is obviously a major cost. I think there could be significant wage savings made by limiting access to the wing walkways to reserved seat holders only. Access to the Victory Room is a bit of an issue, though barrier access (subject to safety requirements) or entry from outside may resolve that.

 

[Rob]

Worth a bump given today's release by the ABS:

http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument

For those that don't want to read it, here's the gist of it:

Population at end Jun qtr 2012
Change over previous year
Change over previous year
PRELIMINARY DATA
'000
'000
%
New South Wales
7 290.3
78.9
1.1
Victoria
5 623.5
89.0
1.6
Queensland
4 560.1
86.0
1.9
South Australia
1 654.8
16.5
1.0
Western Australia
2 430.3
78.0
3.3
Tasmania
512.0
0.8
0.2
Northern Territory
234.8
3.5
1.5
Australian Capital Territory
374.7
6.9
1.9
Australia(a)
22 683.6
359.6
1.6

Remarkable that WA had as much growth in raw numbers as NSW. Poor old Tassie, no-one wants to move there.

Also interesting to note that the ABS have changed the borders of certain urban areas. Perth now includes Mandurah, bumping up the population to 1.83 million. Newcastle's population has reduced substantially as a result to the point where it's about to be overtaken by Canberra, as has Launceston's and a few smaller cities made the list where they haven't in the past.

Make of it what you will.

 

[basashi]

If the 60k stadium was ready to go on the day they announced it, West Coast would still have a waiting list.

 

[fabulousphil]

Worth a bump given today's release by the ABS:

http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument

For those that don't want to read it, here's the gist of it:

Population at end Jun qtr 2012
Change over previous year
Change over previous year
PRELIMINARY DATA
'000
'000
%
New South Wales
7 290.3
78.9
1.1
Victoria
5 623.5
89.0
1.6
Queensland
4 560.1
86.0
1.9
South Australia
1 654.8
16.5
1.0
Western Australia
2 430.3
78.0
3.3
Tasmania
512.0
0.8
0.2
Northern Territory
234.8
3.5
1.5
Australian Capital Territory
374.7
6.9
1.9
Australia(a)
22 683.6
359.6
1.6

Remarkable that WA had as much growth in raw numbers as NSW. Poor old Tassie, no-one wants to move there.

Also interesting to note that the ABS have changed the borders of certain urban areas. Perth now includes Mandurah, bumping up the population to 1.83 million. Newcastle's population has reduced substantially as a result to the point where it's about to be overtaken by Canberra, as has Launceston's and a few smaller cities made the list where they haven't in the past.

Make of it what you will.

What i make of that is a hell of a lot more Poms, Saffas and Kiwis, and to a far lesser extent Eastern staters.

IMO a third AFL team is needed in Perth, it should be down south at Peel and use a boutique stadium that sits around 25/30K like Metricon, if a big game arises they can move it to Perth.

That would give Perth 2 big AFL teams, and a 'rural' one down south - a bit like Geelong, with a totally different atmosphere and feel.

As far as Perth growing, many of the new migrants have little to no experience with football, but the kids are interested and far more exposed to it, and many join auskick at different clubs.

Up here in the far northern suburbs of Perth many of the new migrants take a interest in the Australian game, there are also a few that hate it with a passion, but you are going to get that, the majority are reasonably open, our club has over 400 auskickers, and a reasonable % are new migrant children.

 

[The_Reaper]

What i make of that is a hell of a lot more Poms, Saffas and Kiwis, and to a far lesser extent Eastern staters.

IMO a third AFL team is needed in Perth, it should be down south at Peel and use a boutique stadium that sits around 25/30K like Metricon, if a big game arises they can move it to Perth.

That would give Perth 2 big AFL teams, and a 'rural' one down south - a bit like Geelong, with a totally different atmosphere and feel.

As far as Perth growing, many of the new migrants have little to no experience with football, but the kids are interested and far more exposed to it, and many join auskick at different clubs.

Up here in the far northern suburbs of Perth many of the new migrants take a interest in the Australian game, there are also a few that hate it with a passion, but you are going to get that, the majority are reasonably open, our club has over 400 auskickers, and a reasonable % are new migrant children.

Most of the Pommy, Saffer and Kiwi kids would pick up footy.

Probably because unlike other immigrants they don't end up sticking to the soccer clubs so they can hang around with other people of the same culture.

 

[fabulousphil]

Most of the Pommy, Saffer and Kiwi kids would pick up footy.

Probably because unlike other immigrants they don't end up sticking to the soccer clubs so they can hang around with other people of the same culture.

Possibly true, although the soccer clubs up North are primarily English followed and the rugby clubs almost exclusively Saffa and Kiwi.

What i have noticed through Auskick and junior football is the amount of English and Saffa kids and indeed Parents involved and the lack of Kiwi kids, Brighton JFC which is about as north metro as you can get is primarily run by English immigrants.

As a ex junior coach in the district (West Perth) i have come across quite a few English immigrants coaching junior footy and quite a few Saffa umpires at Auskick and year 4/5's.

 

[Shoei]

What i make of that is a hell of a lot more Poms, Saffas and Kiwis, and to a far lesser extent Eastern staters.

IMO a third AFL team is needed in Perth, it should be down south at Peel and use a boutique stadium that sits around 25/30K like Metricon, if a big game arises they can move it to Perth.

That would give Perth 2 big AFL teams, and a 'rural' one down south - a bit like Geelong, with a totally different atmosphere and feel.

As far as Perth growing, many of the new migrants have little to no experience with football, but the kids are interested and far more exposed to it, and many join auskick at different clubs.

Up here in the far northern suburbs of Perth many of the new migrants take a interest in the Australian game, there are also a few that hate it with a passion, but you are going to get that, the majority are reasonably open, our club has over 400 auskickers, and a reasonable % are new migrant children.

And where are the fans on this 3rd team going to come from? The population of the whole Peel region is around 100,000 (less that 5% of the States population) and it has the highest median age of the state at 47.

Geelong has a population of 500,000 and is the second biggest city in Victoria.

Any mythical 3rd team in WA will need to be in Perth. Even then it will probably fail.

 

[fabulousphil]

And where are the fans on this 3rd team going to come from? The population of the whole Peel region is around 100,000 (less that 5% of the States population) and it has the highest median age of the state at 47.

Geelong has a population of 500,000 and is the second biggest city in Victoria.

Any mythical 3rd team in WA will need to be in Perth. Even then it will probably fail.

I find that hard to believe, from Rockingham down to Bunbury, Bussleton, I am pretty sure more than 100,000 people live, this is a fast growing area as well.

Won't fail IMO, but everyones opinion is welcome.

 

[The_Reaper]

And where are the fans on this 3rd team going to come from? The population of the whole Peel region is around 100,000 (less that 5% of the States population) and it has the highest median age of the state at 47.

Geelong has a population of 500,000 and is the second biggest city in Victoria.

Any mythical 3rd team in WA will need to be in Perth. Even then it will probably fail.

Geelong has a population below 200,000

 

[fabulousphil]

Geelong has a population below 200,000

I did not think they did, ( as in a population above 500,000) i agree with you, Geelong has a very long football history, great stadium and stadium deal, so they are a mile in front of Peel, but IMHO Peel (BTW i include Rockingham/Bunbury and Bussleton in that 3rd team Zone ) has better than GC Suns and GWS football pedigree, not to mention of course a fast growing population, strong economy with good sponsorship oppurtunities and the ability to be a very distinctive team from our other 2 AFL WA teams, but hey it is all quite subjective.

A Boutique stadium at Rushton Park that fits around 25K would work i reckon, if it will work for GC and GWS it will work for Peel.

 

[Shoei]

Geelong has a population below 200,000

I'll cope a hit on that, I was reading predicted population.

City of Greater Geelong 220k (2010)
Barwon region 290k (2010)

http://www.geelongaustralia.com.au/business/statistics/

And its only an hours drive from a city of 3 million.

 

[Shoei]

I find that hard to believe, from Rockingham down to Bunbury, Busselton, I am pretty sure more than 100,000 people live, this is a fast growing area as well.

Won't fail IMO, but everyones opinion is welcome.

Busselton and Bunbury are not part of the Peel Region though. Boddington, Dwellingup ,Mandurah, Pinjarra, Jarrahdale and Waroona make up the Peel region.

Busselton is 2 hours from Mandurah. Hard to envisage people making a 4 hour return trip to watch a game of football.

The region is fast going but as I pointed out, the average age is 47. Its growing because many people are moving down south to retire.

I just don't want to see the AFL needing to carry another broke ass team all because people think that the Eagles and Dockers support needs to be diluted. Yeah lets bring them down rather than raising the other teams to their standards.

 

[fabulousphil]

Busselton and Bunbury are not part of the Peel Region though. Boddington, Dwellingup ,Mandurah, Pinjarra, Jarrahdale and Waroona make up the Peel region.

Busselton is 2 hours from Mandurah. Hard to envisage people making a 4 hour return trip to watch a game of football.

The region is fast going but as I pointed out, the average age is 47. Its growing because many people are moving down south to retire.

I just don't want to see the AFL needing to carry another broke arse team all because people think that the Eagles and Dockers support needs to be diluted. Yeah lets bring them down rather than raising the other teams to their standards.

See your point about dilution, but when the Eagles have a 10k waiting list, and thats people who could be bothered putting their name down, and apparently this year will see the Dockers have one as well, i have mates who refused to get a Dockers membership last year because of crap seating, then IMO a 3rd team is needed, the new stadium if it ever appears will cover this , but when , if ,buts and maybes appear to be the go ATM.

Not sure where you get your info from, but plenty and i mean plenty of young families are moving dowm Mandurah way and further south, its a huge growth area, WA has plenty of sponsorship and economic growth to go around for the next 20 years IMO.

We need a third team, further to that, many people travel a fair way to go to the footy, Peel would be no different, i could imagine 20/25k crowds, what do you think ?.

But do accept your point about talent/player dilution, but not diluting the Dockers and Eagles support base.

 

[Kwality]

See your point about dilution, but when the Eagles have a 10k waiting list, and thats people who could be bothered putting their name down, and apparently this year will see the Dockers have one as well, i have mates who refused to get a Dockers membership last year because of crap seating, then IMO a 3rd team is needed, the new stadium if it ever appears will cover this , but when , if ,buts and maybes appear to be the go ATM.

Not sure where you get your info from, but plenty and i mean plenty of young families are moving dowm Mandurah way and further south, its a huge growth area, WA has plenty of sponsorship and economic growth to go around for the next 20 years IMO.

We need a third team, further to that, many people travel a fair way to go to the footy, Peel would be no different, i could imagine 20/25k crowds, what do you think ?.

But do accept your point about talent/player dilution, but not diluting the Dockers and Eagles support base.

Know anyone who would flick their allegiance to their current club phil, cos I dont, & my Bro in law ex Springbok Eagles follower & his kids in Bridgetown wouldnt even discuss it.

We dont need more clubs, there are too many in Melbourne, Tassie is a footy nursery & deserve one, another cot case club is foolishness & basing it in WA is fair dinkum crazy. You're dreamin' phil !!

 

[fabulousphil]

Know anyone who would flick their allegiance to their current club phil, cos I dont, & my Bro in law ex Springbok Eagles follower & his kids in Bridgetown wouldnt even discuss it.

We dont need more clubs, there are too many in Melbourne, Tassie is a footy nursery & deserve one, another cot case club is foolishness & basing it in WA is fair dinkum crazy. You're dreamin' phil !!

Thanks for your reply, but you know what !!!, i never stated we needed more clubs, what i stated was that WA could support a third team, thats a big difference.

WA will have IMO good economic and population growth for the next 20 years, a third AFL team makes particular sense in WA.

Do you seriously believe that a 3rd WA would be a cot ( i think you mean basket) case ??, player wise and particuarly spomsorship and even membership wise i reckon it would be pretty good.

 

[Kwality]

Thanks for your reply, but you know what !!!, i never stated we needed more clubs, what i stated was that WA could support a third team, thats a big difference.

WA will have IMO good economic and population growth for the next 20 years, a third AFL team makes particular sense in WA.

Do you seriously believe that a 3rd WA would be a cot ( i think you mean basket) case ??, player wise and particuarly spomsorship and even membership wise i reckon it would be pretty good.

a 3rd team, why? The new stadium needs more games & a 3rd team aint it ... so you clearly know people so diillusioned with the Eagles & Dockers they will support the Numbats, yep the WA version of North or Port !! Sorry phil, I reckon you do not know one person who wants to flick the Eagles or Dockers but are an academic ... kookooland ...

I understand the economics, but if the economics drive you, flick some teams out of Melbourne, or admit thats too hard (maybe) ...

 

[fabulousphil]

a 3rd team, why? The new stadium needs more games & a 3rd team aint it ... so you clearly know people so diillusioned with the Eagles & Dockers they will support the Numbats, yep the WA version of North or Port !! Sorry phil, I reckon you do not know one person who wants to flick the Eagles or Dockers but are an academic ... kookooland ...

I understand the economics, but if the economics drive you, flick some teams out of Melbourne, or admit thats too hard (maybe) ...

A third team im WA .............. the potential sposorship is here, the grass roots participation is here, the strength of the WAFL and the regular amount of draftees are here, the population growth is here, and the current WA AFL teams have membership waiting lists or are close to full.

And yes, if a new AFL team started up that offered something different ( a Geelong style semi rural club) then i think they would attract good support.

Whether that meant a Melbourne team merging/relocating or dissapearing is not my argument.

 

[Slax]

A third team im WA .............. the potential sposorship is here, the grass roots participation is here, the strength of the WAFL and the regular amount of draftees are here, the population growth is here, and the current WA AFL teams have membership waiting lists or are close to full.

And yes, if a new AFL team started up that offered something different ( a Geelong style semi rural club) then i think they would attract good support.

Whether that meant a Melbourne team merging/relocating or dissapearing is not my argument.

Relocations are not an effective answer, sides that relocate take a long time to be accepted, have a look at Sydney it took 15 years to be accepted as a Sydney side, moving a team into a football state would take even longer as the side will never be looked at as local so it will be harder to gain new supporters.

The biggest issue with any new sides coming into the competition is the ability of the competition to maintain the standard of quality across the comp. Whilst the game is faster than ever before this has not corresponded to an improve in skills, actually it is the reverse, we are hell bent on recruiting athletes and often players with great skills are look over because of the deemed lack of athleticism.