Prediction Destiny in Our Hands

[Keg on legs]

5 games left

Imo-

Win 5 - 14 wins and its top 4-6
win 4 - 13 wins, finish 7-8
Win 3 -miss finals through s**t %
Win 2 or less- tank for draft pick

 

[FlyingSledghamer]

I should point out, I have an extra vested interest in us playing finals (in the interests of transparency about my biases, holllywood ) : I made a bet with a Crows fan at the start of the year, that if we finish Top-6 he has to wear a Saints scarf in Grand Final week, and if we finish outside the 8, I have to wear a Crows scarf in Grand Final week.

I really don't want to wear a Crows scarf...

During the bet proccess was it agreed that tge scarf had to be worn outside a jacket or jumper? Ahh?

 

[Persevering Saint]

With all due respect to Persevering Saint...

read back on some of his posts this year...

and see how you feel after reading them if you're one of the posters he is suggesting is being hysterical.

I make a point of not disagreeing with Percy when he's right. Beat Port Adelaide this week and we could still finish fourth with a better win-loss record than in 2008 when we did it.

And that's kinda my point. I'm an expert on Saintly despondency, and I just don't get why anybody at this point considers this season is done and dusted.

 

[Saintbloke]

If you ignore the last two thrashings, plus losing the last half of the game to Richmond, then yes, the season is not done.

 

[TheBalls]

If we take a step back to a few weeks ago, before the Freo game, many on here (myself included) were of the opinion that we need to win 2 of the next 3 games (Freo, Richmond and Essendon) to have any chance of playing finals.

We did that, beating Freo and Richmond. Granted people would be expecting Essendon (who are a decent side) to be one of those wins, so it was disappointing not to win that as well, but we won the 2 out of 3.

So that left us with 6 games to go, needing 4 wins to almost guarantee finals due to our % (a big ask).

Last week we came up against the form team of the comp and arguably the best in the comp at their fortress and we lost, which we were expected to, bookies had us about 5/1 to win. WTF has changed since then? The fall out seems worse than after the Bombers game? We lost a game we were expected to lose.

Wins wise we are in the position that many expected us to be in, so the frustration can only be at our % taking a hit and the poor form we have shown the last 2 games. We’re an average team and a work in progress with an acknowledged lack of elite talent. We’re an outside chance of finals if we can quickly address the form issues and win 4 of the next 5 although this is unlikely.

The overreaction on here seems irrational. Given the draw and the run in we have at no point were we expected to play finals and the media and forum talk of this after the Richmond game was premature and not taking this into consideration. Roller coaster form is the story of our year, there is no reason that we can’t get up this week and smash Port Adelaide and the Eagles before blowing it against North and Melbourne .

 

[saints2066]

If we take a step back to a few weeks ago, before the Freo game, many on here (myself included) were of the opinion that we need to win 2 of the next 3 games (Freo, Richmond and Essendon) to have any chance of playing finals.

We did that, beating Freo and Richmond. Granted people would be expecting Essendon (who are a decent side) to be one of those wins, so it was disappointing not to win that as well, but we won the 2 out of 3.

So that left us with 6 games to go, needing 4 wins to almost guarantee finals due to our % (a big ask).

Last week we came up against the form team of the comp and arguably the best in the comp at their fortress and we lost, which we were expected to, bookies had us about 5/1 to win. WTF has changed since then? The fall out seems worse than after the Bombers game? We lost a game we were expected to lose.

Wins wise we are in the position that many expected us to be in, so the frustration can only be at our % taking a hit and the poor form we have shown the last 2 games. We’re an average team and a work in progress with an acknowledged lack of elite talent. We’re an outside chance of finals if we can quickly address the form issues and win 4 of the next 5 although this is unlikely.

The overreaction on here seems irrational. Given the draw and the run in we have at no point were we expected to play finals and the media and forum talk of this after the Richmond game was premature and not taking this into consideration. Roller coaster form is the story of our year, there is no reason that we can’t get up this week and smash Port Adelaide and the Eagles before blowing it against North and Melbourne .

I don't think it's an over-reaction, one good quarter before half-time against Richmond seems like ages ago.That is 10 quarters ago.


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[TheEnsign]

Did a ladder predictor and have the R23 game as us playing for 7th or 8th and Richmond playing for 4th (or 5th).

If so it will be absolutely feral.

Edit: Should be clearer - I have us playing for 7th or 8th place if we win, out of the eight if we lose. So Roo's potential final game. As I say, feral.

 

[JG22]

Our percentage yet again being atrocious could cost us.

Must win all 4 to play finals, not impossible though.

 

[Keg on legs]

I just saw the fixture for round 23. We have 3.20 on the sunday.

That's good for us. By then, if we are still alive, we will know exactly what we have to do to make it. All our main rivals bar wet toast will have played already.

Imagine we need to win by 40+ points to get our %age up enough to make the 8. Could be fun to watch.

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

technically we're still in the race.
But deep down i think we are ducked

 

[Diehard Saint]

technically we're still in the race.
But deep down i think we are ducked

It ain't over till it's over

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

Win 4 games and make finals it will be like

Miss out on finals by percentage again and its more like

 

[Munga]

If we and the teams we played had goalkicking accuracy of 50%, right now we would be 5th on the ladder with 11 wins and 106.6%. Instead we're going at 46% and the opposition at 53%, doesn't help.

 

[saint66au]

Our destiny is in our own kicking feet, not our own hands

 

[George]

Just had a look through the remaining fixture. This is how it shapes up provided we win the remaining three games;

1) We only need to worry about Essendon & West Coast.

Essendon's run home;
Home vs Adelaide
Away vs Gold Coast
Home vs Fremantle

West Coast's run home;
Home vs Carlton
Away vs GWS
Home vs Adelaide


In regards to Essendon, we would need them to drop only 1 of their remaining three games. You would hope it would be this coming weekend vs Adelaide.
In regards to West Coast, we would need them to also drop only 1 of their remaining three games. I'm thinking it'll be in two weeks time vs GWS.

The rest of the sides vying for top eight don't matter.

If the Bulldogs win their remaining three games it won't affect our chances to make the eight. Same goes for Hawthorn.

And if Melbourne lose on Sunday against us then it won't matter if they win their next two as we will be a game ahead of them.

Obviously all provided we win the last three of course. But a lot of things out of our control are actually in our favour.

Lets just hope...

 

[luca77]

Ladder prediction is fun at the moment. According to one I did just now, if we win our next 2, beating the Tigers may have us 7th, losing to them may have us 10th.
Big difference!
Bombers make it if we don't.
I have the Dees and Eagles missing out.
Hawks to finish 13th.
When I changed one other result Essendon's way, they made the 8 along with us at the expense of...Geelong!
Of course, one week at a time. If we lose next week, my only ladder interest thereafter will be the Hawks pick watch.

 

[mighty_sainters]

Has a team ever missed out on the 8 with 13 wins?

 

[LuckyBounce!]

Has a team ever missed out on the 8 with 13 wins?

I don't think so but I have a bad feeling we might be the first

 

[Keg on legs]

Whilst it is politically correct to never wish injuries on players, I'm not upset to see ooooorrrrrrrazzzzziiiooo is out for the H&A season.

Methendon without zerrett and fantasia against the crows this week could get messy for them. Hopefully they lose some %age as well as the game

 

[plugger66]

I don't think so but I have a bad feeling we might be the first

13 wins will get you in for sure. 12 with a poor percentage could with a huge amount of luck.

 

[Keg on legs]

13 wins will get you in for sure. 12 with a poor percentage could with a huge amount of luck.

That's the key

Win the last 3 and we are in

Lose 1 and win 2 is possible, but we need to make up about 100 points to get our %age up to 105ish.

 

[35Saints35]

That port loss really cooked our goose . A win that wasn't totally expected went by the by . That's what gets into finals winning the unexpected . We miss on percentage is my guess . Poor kicking is poor footy

 

[George]

Has a team ever missed out on the 8 with 13 wins?

It's never happened in the 8 team finals model (1994-2017).

Carlton in 1992 were the last team to win 13 or more games and miss the finals. They finished outside the top six with 14 wins.

 

[Wright 1]

FWIW

We are $4.50 with Sportsbet to make the 8

 

[JiggsteR45]

Pessimistic view on several.
Suggest you head to a game with JiggsteR45 and let some positivity influence you.

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