Dire prediction

[The Dutchman!]

Regardless of what happens in 2001 I predict that Carlton (yes Carlton) will win at least 21 out of 22 in the regular season sometime in the next 4 years... Reason?

They simply won't stand for their 1995 team record being beaten, much in the same way that they didn't live with the humiliation of being pumped in the 93 GF all that long (despite being widely written off in the media after that game).. or stay on 15 all flags all that long...

I for one love the Carlton/ Essendon rivalry - neither can stand to the other get an inch in front.

And I respect the fact that the Blues had a big say in stopping us going one clear with their inspirational, albeit a little lucky, 99 PF performance.

Just putting it out there. Can't imagine big Jack liking what he saw from MCC member seat in Sept2000 so watch out everyone else for a Carlton frenzy sometime soon.

 

[Grendel]

Duthcy, back to sleep now mate, that vindaloo did look a bit dodgy and with the Guiness you were knocking back.... well it was all just a nightmare okay.

Thats it, close those eyes, see Jimmy prancing around the half forward line, everythings okay now. Sleep,sweet dreams

 

[The Dutchman!]

Cheers Grendel but its 5.30 in the afternoon here big fella. What's your excuse insomniac boy?

All the best
Dutchy

Ps. Quite fancy a Chicken vindaloo and some Cobra lager now, cheers for the thought - personally don't think Guiness and Indian go down all that well together..
PPS. And Hirdy doesn't prance he floats... and mostly in the midfield - watched the GF again today - he was just awesome...

 

[Grendel]

Now now, i told you about 'Shetland' Jimmy.

he has got to come over to the Hawks we have the stables for him to fit right at home.

We have a nice big stable that another Ponyboy we picked up from you just vacated (Fishy-the-DraughtPony) lots of room and plenty of left over chaff! Just tether him up and we will send the float around to collect him.

[This message has been edited by Grendel (edited 17 December 2000).]

 

[jod23]

I predict that somewhere in the next few years Essendon will win another flag!!!!

I know, i know its a HUGE prediction but just try and think about it

cheers

 

[The Dutchman!]

Gren mate

Honestly thought you above this sort of thing...

ah shucks...

Speaking of Essendon to Hawthorn recruits, are you guys persisting with Bazza? Still reckon that if the rest of your midfield comes good he will add a lot in physical protection etc... bit out of touch here - probably playing in the Westar is he????

Jod, how about in the next two? Or is that just hyper-wishful thinking????

Grendel - I made a (v late) post on the Lennon thread and I'd be interested in your views... have a gander...

 

[Grendel]

Dutchy, im like the freemans, just trying to rebuild the stables with some quality stallions! Lets see, form would read Brownlow (melb cup) premiership cap (likes to lead from the front) hoof injurys but overcame them (prepared to do the hard work) and looks good on TV! Now if that isnt a Hawthorn prototype you tell me, haha.

Bazza though is another matter, shipped him off to the glue factory where he belongs

and that was only after the dogmeat factory rejected him as not fit for consumption!!

Yea that was me about Lennons voice in that thread. Im with you on that, i just reckon he could really hooowwwlll like few others. Something he doesnt really get aknowledged for. Listen to the sneer in 'Dizzy Miss Lizzy' if that wasnt perfect rock n roll attitude right there well im missing something somewhere.

Cheers

 

[Dan26]

Dutchy,

Interesting comment.

You and I think very much alike, because I can forsee something like than happening too.

One thing about the Blue-baggers, is that they hate to have their superiority threatened.

When we equalled them on 14 flags in 1985, they went one ahead two years later. Then, when we equalled them on 15 in 1993, they went one ahead two years later (breaking our 19-3 record in the process).

Now, we have equalled them on 16, and I'm sure they will be striving to go ahead of us again.

One thing about Essendon-Carlton, is that neither club has really been able to get the upper-hand. It's back-and-forth, again and again. If you look at Carlton-Collingwood, the Blues have won all the important games in that rivalry.

The Carlton-Essendon rivalry is different. It's almost as if, Carlton need Essendon to win a flag, just so they can come out and win one themselves a couple of years later. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if they go on a recruiting spree in a bid to win 21 out of 22 and win a 17th flag, but maybe we can win number 17 in 2001 before they get a chance !

I think both clubs actually push each other to do better. Essendon is the one team that Carlton do not have any bragging rights over. Carlton can stick it up Collingwood and Richmond, but they can't stick it up the Dons because we have won 16 flags (in less time than they have), and we have the record H&A season in addition to beating them in the last GF we played them in (1993). But I'm sure, our 2000 effort will have motivated them to get back up to the top of the tree. Those bastards !

GO BOMBERS ! Win number 17.

 

[kevin sooky]

Dan Essendon was not able to compete for two years but were not prevetned from doing so by the VFL. The other clubs could have tkane a "rest" to but didnt. Similarly during WW2 some clubs could have gone on the back burner but didnt. As a result the fact that Essendon chose not to field a side should not be attempted to be used to its advantage. It had the opportunity to compete in as many seasons as Carlton but could not do so. Therefore your record and that of Carlton is the same. You are not ahead. Please desist from using the misleading statement.

 

[Dan26]

KS,

Stop sooking you Essendon hater.

If you go by premierships, we are even with Carlton. No doubt there; 16 each. Can't argue with you.

BUT (yes but), if you go by strike rate, we are ahead. 16/102 is BETTER than 16/104

So, we win a premeirship 15.7% of the time, while the Blue-Baggers wni one 15.3% of the time.

That is official. I'm not making the stats up. So, yes we are even on premierships, I'll give you that. But we are ahead on strike rate, and that is true my friend.

Essendon has also won 64 finals mathces - more than any other club (although Collingwod has made the finals the most times)

Essendon actually overtook Collingwood on finals wins this year. Hopefully we are ahead to stay. 64 and counting.

 

[kevin sooky]

Dan
If you read my post I said that the two years you dont count should be counted. Why shoule Essendon gain just b/c they were unabl to muster numbers in two years. In years where it is universally acknowledged that other teams were harder hit by players going to war. They were two years where you failed. 16 out of 104 possible seasons they could have competed.

Please Danny boy, no abuse.

 

[Dan26]

Sooky,

The fact is the DIDN'T compete in those two seasons. Sure, they "could" have, but they didn't.

Since they "didn't" compete, they couldn't win a premiership in those two years. The fact is that Essendon have competed in 102 of the 104 seasons. The reasons why are irrelevant.

You can't just say : "Oh, but Essendon could have competed, so those seasons count"

I mean, Essendpon did not compete. Thatis an undisputable fact. If your team doesn't compete, this counts as a year where you were not in it. All I'm saying is that Essendon's strike rate in years they have competed is better than Carlton's.

So what if Essendon "could" have competed? The fact is they "didn't" compete in 1916-17, so this means we have actually competed in 102 of the 104 seasons.

Could've, Should've, would've: It doesn't really matter. The fact is, they DID NOT COMPTETE in those years.

 

[kevin sooky]

Danno, what if the reason they didnt compete is b/c they KNEW they couldnt win it and so pulled out. That is what I am saying they did. They had the opportunity but they chickened out. they have therefore had the opportunity to win the flag in 104 years. They chose not to. Bad luck. They missed out in those years as well.
Stiff.

 

[Dan26]

Sooky,

I can't believe I'm having this stupid argument with you. You seem to pick stupid things to argue, and you try to back up what you say, even when you are wrong.

The Sydney-South Melbourne thign is a googd example.

For example, when South became Sydney, the new Sydney team had EXACTLY the same playing list as South Melbourne (minus retirements and transfers etc etc) They were the same old club, just relocated. If they were a brand new club, then why in the hell, did the SAME PLAYERS continue to play for the Swans in 1982, with the same colours and emblem. If they were a new club, then all the players would have gone into a draft to be shared equally among all the 12 teams, including the new Sydney team. This didn;t happen. The South playing list continued on at Sydney. I would have thought this was blatantly obvious, but your logic at times, is ridiculous. It depresses me, because you are obviously a knowledeable and historical studnet of the game, but you let yourself down arguing stupid things which you can't win.

Similary. your thory, that Essendon has compteted in 104 seasons is going against fact and logic. You argue stupid things which are unarguable.

I don't know why Essendon chose not to field a team in 1916-17. In 1916, only 4 teams were in the VFL. The war was far more important. I've got a book at home called "Every game ever played". Inside the back page, it lists "strike rate". it was published in 1991, and it shows Essendon having won 14 flags in 93 years, while Carlton had won 15 in 95 years.

The botom line is that Essendon DID NOT COMPETE in the VFL in 1916-17. The reasons are irrelevant. You can't count a year where a team wsn't in it.

North Melbourne "could" have joined the VFL in 1908, possibly. Hypothetically, it's possible they may have not joined because they knew they would struggle, so they held off until 1925. Does thos mean we should count North from 1908 ? Of course not.

Essendon started in the VFL/AFL in 1897. They have competed in all years bar 1916-17. therefore our strike rate is 16/102.

Why am I arguing logic with you, Sooky? Is this going to become another pet topic of yours, where you attempt to argue the unarguable?

 

[Carey_is_King]

Essendon clearly did not compete in 1916/1917, and this was because they put a motion to the league that all gate receipts should be donated to the patriotic funds (war effort). The league did not accept this proposal so Essendon effectively withdrew from the competition for those two years. As they were not in it, you can't possibly count those years.
** This info courtesy of the EFC web site.
------------------
Trample the Weak,
Hurdle the Dead.

[This message has been edited by Carey_is_King (edited 19 December 2000).]

 

[kevin sooky]

Danno
The Sydney/South thing is very clear. You are arguing the layman's point of view. I am arguing the legal point of view. That is where our argument went with BSA back in June and they said to me then if you show that Sydney was different legal entity then they would accpt it. I did. They reverted back to the layman's logic. Legally it is quite clear.

P.S. My logic is quite easy to follow. You may not agree with it. But refrain from the comments you made just b/c you are feeling angry.

You obviously have not read my James Hird post which I understand has floored The Dutchman!

As for this point on years competed, I am not trying to bait you. Honestly. perhaps you can answer me this, I dont knwo the answer. Were Essendon still considered a part fo the VFL in 1916/1917 and did they have to be re-admitted in 1918 with the other teams? or were they still considered to be part of the VFL even when unable or unwilling to compete? This is a serious question.

 

[Dan26]

KS,

I dunno, mate. I suppose they were part of the VFL, but due to the war, they elected not to field a team.

You can't count seasons when we didn't field a team. It makes us look worse than we are - and that's not fair......in all seriousness.

You can't win the flag in years where you don't field a team and we have fielded a team in 102 (not 104) seasons......winning the flag in 16 of them.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I can concede the strike rate thing but it works both ways. Carlton can consider itself as having a VFL history two years more than Essendon. What is the head to head count now? I know it is closing but I believe we still lead that. In fact, I believe it is only Port that we come out on the wrong side of the ledge against. Minor aberration considering their newcomer status.

Anyway, I hope the 'dire prediction' comes to fruition. I always believed that Carlton lifted for the Bombers but we had a chance in the prelim to stop the Bombers again and couldn't do it. There goes that theory. Plus, we couldn't possibly go on a spending spree with the salary cap situation the way it is.

------------------
mens sana in corpore sano - a sound mind in a sound body

 

[Dan26]

ODN's,

You're wrong about Carlton lifting against the Bombers. The Blues lift agaisnt OTHER teams in an effort to match Essendon. Eg, 1987 and 1995. In recent years, Sheedy (since 1981) has a remarkable record agaisnt Carlton. It's something like 25-10 in our favour since 1981 (approx)

I reckon Essendon lift agaisnt Carlton. Apart from the flukey 1999 PF where you had 9 less scoring shots, I can't think of too many "great" Carlton wins over Essendon in recent years. We've won all the close ones (H&A) as well as a PF and a GF. We also won 10 in a row from 1981 to 1985, including an elimination final in '83.

 

[Olmy]

Ahh, it doesn't matter anyway. Carlton and Essendon can fight it out, but everyone knows they will never be as good as the Roys!

Carn the Roys!!!

 

[Dan26]

ODN's,

The head-to-head record in 110-99 in Carlton's favour. Essendon is closest to Carlton. In 5 (maybe 6) years we will overtake you. As long as Sheedy is there, we will maintain our 66% win rate against the Blues - even if they are a good side in that time. Over the last 20 years, we've always had a bit of an edge over them - I see no reason why that won't continue.

 

[Michele]

Dan

Why do many Essendon supporters cite North when replying to a post.

Your reply to 'Sooky' compares the South Melb/Sydney entity to the number of seasons Essendon have played.

Then you go completely off the track saying North "could" have joined the VFL in 1908. Hyothetically, its possible they may not have joined because they knew they would struggle, so they held off until 1925.

Not quite correct Dan, but what the heck.

 

[Hawkforce.]

Dan24, do you have any self-respect?

You are practically begging for affirmation by Carlton supporter ("Ooooh, YES, Dan we are your greatest rivals!")

This thread is an embarrassment to Essendon supporters.

 

[Hawkforce.]

By the way, we will have no sympathy for you when you lose your first game in 2001.

hahahaahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahaha!

 

[Hawkforce.]

I would be a lot more comfortable with you using ny tag if you could at least make a passable impression of me.

"HaHaHa" indeed!

courage is thy middle name!