Current Disappearance of 3yo William Tyrrell * The foster mother has been recommended for charges of pervert the course of justice & interfere with a corpse

[Kurve]

Criminal charges the former foster parents currently face as at 15 April 2022 include:

• Apprehended Violence Orders on both (AVOs)
• Lying to the NSW Crime Commission on former foster mother *Not Guilty
• Lying to the NSW Crime Commission on former foster father *Not Guilty
• 2 x charges of assault against a child on former foster mother *Guilty
• 1 x charge of assault against a child on former foster father
• Stalking &/or Intimidation on both
• Dummy bidding real estate fraud *Guilty

TIMELINE

Where's William Tyrrell? - The Ch 10 podcast (under Coroner's subpoena)

Operation Arkstone

 

[NRL Fan]

Thanks for that. Usually councils have different collection days for different areas. Could a nearby area have had a different collection day? I see Bonny Hills gets collected Fridays - but that would be too far for FM to have driven and she would have been seen on CCTV. What about non-council bins, e.g. commercial / building / green waste skips?

The green waste service up here is weekly and the red and yellow bins are alternating every 2 weeks. The waste is then taken to a transfer station at Heron's Creek where it's sorted and a boy in a spiderman suit would have been easily spotted - IMO.

 

[Awakening]

I think the investigation was very poorly handled in the first few days. The focus was on only two possibilities: William wandered off and got lost or came to grief, OR William was taken by (connections of) the bio parents.
Within a few hours, police were knocking on the doors of the bio parents, and also, a large search party had been established.
But look at was NOT done immediately:

• Street was not cordoned off, no road blocks set up
• FGM property was not secured or properly treated as a crime scene - people were allowed to trample all over the place
• FM and FF were allowed to leave the house without full statements being taken.
• No forensic analysis of FGM and FF vehicles
• No forensic investigation of FF, FGM or FM for injury / wounds etc. - including FM hand injury
• Phones and electronic devices were not immediately taken from fosters, nor were they monitored
• FM, FGM and LT allowed to travel to Port Macquarie in FGM car unsupervised
• No immediate surveillance of foster family
• No forensic investigation of balcony or garden bed (e.g. luminol)
• Phone calls to house from Savage and Owen were not followed up immediately
• Locked shed and roof cavity of FGM property not searched
• and of course, ... no details about the appearance of the fosters, their attire, or their vehicles was publicly released, so no witnesses could say whether they had been seen anywhere on the day.

In my opinion if some or all of the above had been done immediately, William would have been found by now.

It's because of the above that I believe FM had the opportunity and time to hide his tiny body. She was familiar with the area. And an area with dense forest. It's possible he has remained in the area she left him in but also possible he was moved since then.

She may not have been so "lucky" if some of the points you raised had been actioned.

 

[NRL Fan]

Agree - IMO a planned handover is just too complicated and unrealistic and I feel the same way regarding FM disposing of his body for what ever reason. I dont see how she could have successfully disposed of him such as short time frame - never to be found. The simplest explanation is a random abduction by a local or a passer by - Occam's Razor ?

Occam's Razor ?

For Occam's razor, I come up with the following
1. Wandered off and was lost, died
2. Death by accident and covered up
3. Bio parents involvement - abduction
4. Deliberate disposal by FPs - sold, given away or killed
5. Random abduction by passing stranger

The reason I have random abduction at the bottom is because of the remote location and lack of passing vehicles.

 

[Poppy Penny]

True. And he was taken early to foster care too. There was that 6 week period where they abducted him though.

Abducted? They hid with their own son to avoid him being taken from them.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Abducted? They hid with their own son to avoid him being taken from them.

Yes I need to be more careful at language I'm VERY much in support of Bios and think what happened was disgraceful more so than most probably. I listened to bio mums interview and my heart was breaking with hers....even had a tear in my eye. Damn that was hard to watch. So ok I accept poor language though not poor sentiment. Is that an ok correction?

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Let's try and give some perspective to the prospect of an opportunistic abduction.

Quantify the probabilities.

4 min opportunity in 270 min (afternoon before and that morning) being time unattended

Probably 10 cars a morning move into out our of a dead end st like this.

Of the cars that do come into st probably less than 1 in 25 are nonresidents. Why come in otherwise. Dead end

Pedaphiles represent less than 1 in 100 people.

Probably 1 in 10 chance he was away from house and near st 70 metres away

Even if he was close to st and it was a pedaphile in a car it's an unexpected find
not being the reason they ventured there and would motivate a grab and run maybe 1 in 5 chance

Chance of WT screaming and alerting FM 4 of 5.

Every time you add a layer to the tier of chances required to align it MULTIPLIES by that probability

The odds are astronomical. Kids are grabbed unattended at populous locations unattended or when grooming happens not on a dead end st in a quiet town with a mere few minutes opportunity. I'll multiply it out.

 

[fazacs1]

A few points...

While it's been repeated in the media that FGM car had not been examined previously, it had been examined in the days after William disappeared. Cars were returned when nothing incriminating was found. It's unknown how thorough the examination was, however Forensic Services Group were involved from the start of the investigation.

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Examining those cars at the time would've been procedure, especially once the homicide squad became involved. 7 years is a long time in forensics, police might've been having another crack at the car using new techniques.

Jubelin has said that the balcony theory was investigated, and IMO earlier investigators would've looked at this theory also. As much as the early investigation has been criticised, I think once the SF was established (day 4?) homicide investigators would've looked at all the obvious possibilities.

I was listening to a podcast in the car today with Jubelin, he was asked if the balcony theory had been investigated Jubelin replied it was looked at, not investigated and the only reason he investigated the FPS was because of pressure from other officers within Strikeforce Rosann, not because he thought they should be looked at.

 

[fazacs1]

Let's try and give some perspective to the prospect of an opportunistic abduction.

Quantify the probabilities.

4 min opportunity in 270 min (afternoon before and that morning) being time unattended

Probably 10 cars a morning move into out our of a dead end st like this.

Of the cars that do come into st probably less than 1 in 25 are nonresidents. Why come in otherwise. Dead end

Pedaphiles represent less than 1 in 100 people.

Probably 1 in 10 chance he was away from house and near st 70 metres away

Even if he was close to st and it was a pedaphile in a car it's an unexpected find
not being the reason they ventured there and would motivate a grab and run maybe 1 in 5 chance

Chance of WT screaming and alerting FM 4 of 5.

Every time you add a layer to the tier of chances required to align it MULTIPLIES by that probability

The odds are astronomical. Kids are grabbed unattended at populous locations unattended or when grooming happens not on a dead end st in a quiet town with a mere few minutes opportunity. I'll multiply it out.

I agree, although stranger abduction cannot be ruled out, the likelihood in the setting seems slim to me.

 

[stormbird]

Bin collection for the area is on Tuesday. I looked at this ages ago to see if WT might have accidently climbed into a bin and was collected.

https://www.pmhc.nsw.gov.au/files/assets/public/document-files/residents/waste/surrounding-areas-street-list.pdf

Thanks to NRL Fan's link, I found some 2014 bin information via the Wayback Machine:

- "[Bin] Collection vehicles are fitted with a closed-circuit TV camera which films the bin as it empties. The driver makes a note when contamination occurs and puts a sticker on the bin. The information is recorded against the address back at the office, a letter is sent to the resident." (from Bin collection days, under "Contamination control")

- A new kerbside waste service started on Monday 1 Sep 2014. Residents were asked to leave their old bins on the kerb from Mon 8 Sep to be collected by a contractor sometime between 8 Sep and 19 Sep.

- Waste Collection Calendar 2014
For Kendall residents, the bin collection day back in 2014 was the same as it is now: Tuesdays, on a Week 1 schedule. Friday 12 Sep 2014 would have been in a red (garbage) bin week and the next collection, Tuesday 16 Sep, would have been yellow (recycling).

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Thanks to NRL Fan's link, I found some 2014 bin information via the Wayback Machine:

- "[Bin] Collection vehicles are fitted with a closed-circuit TV camera which films the bin as it empties. The driver makes a note when contamination occurs and puts a sticker on the bin. The information is recorded against the address back at the office, a letter is sent to the resident." (from Bin collection days, under "Contamination control")

- A new kerbside waste service started on Monday 1 Sep 2014. Residents were asked to leave their old bins on the kerb from Mon 8 Sep to be collected by a contractor sometime between 8 Sep and 19 Sep.

- Waste Collection Calendar 2014
For Kendall residents, the bin collection day back in 2014 was the same as it is now: Tuesdays, on a Week 1 schedule. Friday 12 Sep 2014 would have been in a red (garbage) bin week and the next collection, Tuesday 16 Sep, would have been yellow (recycling).

If there was a death in care it won't have been an intentional one in the sense of premeditated murder. It may have been an intervention causing death or it may have been an accident. Both there would be a continuing attachment love respect as your son. Difficult enough to temporarily abandon that sentiment out of necessity to avoid personal criminal culpability. I find it difficult to accept that the sentiment could devolve so much so quickly as to simply dump the sons body in a waste collection bin of any sort. They are not psychopaths or sociopaths to my knowledge

There are 5 stages of grief

Denial
Anger
Bargaining
Depression
Acceptance

I have not read any studies (may look) but I would imagine that if a childs death in your care was caused by your own actions there would persist amongst and intertwined with these stages an overwhelming sense of guilt. It may deepen each stage I suggest.

I think the psychology of the event dramatically influences the process and may give insight into nature of WT demise. Shock, denial. Cognitive dissonance. Lost functionality are all possible I would imagine

 

[31550]

Let's try and give some perspective to the prospect of an opportunistic abduction.

Quantify the probabilities.

4 min opportunity in 270 min (afternoon before and that morning) being time unattended

Probably 10 cars a morning move into out our of a dead end st like this.

Of the cars that do come into st probably less than 1 in 25 are nonresidents. Why come in otherwise. Dead end

Pedaphiles represent less than 1 in 100 people.

Probably 1 in 10 chance he was away from house and near st 70 metres away

Even if he was close to st and it was a pedaphile in a car it's an unexpected find
not being the reason they ventured there and would motivate a grab and run maybe 1 in 5 chance

Chance of WT screaming and alerting FM 4 of 5.

Every time you add a layer to the tier of chances required to align it MULTIPLIES by that probability

The odds are astronomical. Kids are grabbed unattended at populous locations unattended or when grooming happens not on a dead end st in a quiet town with a mere few minutes opportunity. I'll multiply it out.

Opportunistic abductions are uncommon but they do happen and are considered by police. E.g. in the recent Cleo Smith case, police original theory was opportunistic abduction.
There are a number of factors which suggest this is a possible scenario:

Very high incidence of known paedophiles and sex offenders in the immediate area.​

Quiet street with few possible witnesses and no CCTV surveillance.​

Multiple exit routes from the scene (with a 4WD).​

The offender(s) may not have been 'cruising' with the specific intention of abduction, but may have been casing vacant houses for a possible 'break-and-enter', or may have been on their way to a bush track to engage in other activity - e.g. searching for scrap metal (I believe there is a fair bit of scrapping going on in the area), or even harvesting a secret drug crop (also think there is a bit of this in the area).

Maybe William went to the driveway to wait / look for FF, and saw a vehicle which he thought was FF, and was scooped up in a matter of seconds?
(This actually fits the timeline of when the Crabbs thought they heard a vehicle stop in FGM driveway - they thought it was the postie, but it was later established the postie had been much earlier that day).

​

 

[31550]

If there was a death in care it won't have been an intentional one in the sense of premeditated murder. It may have been an intervention causing death or it may have been an accident. Both there would be a continuing attachment love respect as your son. Difficult enough to temporarily abandon that sentiment out of necessity to avoid personal criminal culpability. I find it difficult to accept that the sentiment could devolve so much so quickly as to simply dump the sons body in a waste collection bin of any sort. They are not psychopaths or sociopaths to my knowledge

Psychopathic traits: 7 Elements of the Psychopathic Personality

• Superficial Charm. ...
• Puffed-Up Self-Esteem. ...
• Deceitfulness. ...
• Shallow Emotions. ...
• Boredom and a Need for Stimulation. ...
• A History of Shady Conduct. ...
• A Riddle of Contradictions.

Sociopathic traits: Signs of a Sociopath

• Lack of empathy for others.
• Impulsive behavior.
• Attempting to control others with threats or aggression.
• Using intelligence, charm, or charisma to manipulate others.
• Not learning from mistakes or punishment.
• Lying for personal gain.
• Showing a tendency to physical violence and fights.

You be the judge.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Psychopathic traits: 7 Elements of the Psychopathic Personality

• Superficial Charm. ...
• Puffed-Up Self-Esteem. ...
• Deceitfulness. ...
• Shallow Emotions. ...
• Boredom and a Need for Stimulation. ...
• A History of Shady Conduct. ...
• A Riddle of Contradictions.

Sociopathic traits: Signs of a Sociopath

• Lack of empathy for others.
• Impulsive behavior.
• Attempting to control others with threats or aggression.
• Using intelligence, charm, or charisma to manipulate others.
• Not learning from mistakes or punishment.
• Lying for personal gain.
• Showing a tendency to physical violence and fights.

You be the judge.

You want me to judge FM and or FF with mere glimpses of personality exposed? There are some aspects that concern me about FM I'll agree but I'm not going to launch into assassination of her character from a distance.

ASPD comprising both P and S is about 3% for men and 1% for women prevalence

 

[31550]

You want me to judge FM and or FF with mere glimpses of personality exposed? There are some aspects that concern me about FM I'll agree but I'm not going to launch into assassination of her character from a distance.

ASPD comprising both P and S is about 3% for men and 1% for women prevalence

But you already did judge them, didn't you? :

"They are not psychopaths or sociopaths to my knowledge"​

​

Agree, we don't know enough about them to determine for certain whether they are or are not capable of the actions about which we are speculating.
Sociopaths don't walk around with stamps on their forehead identifying them as such. Neither do sex offenders or paedophiles. They come from all walks of life, and all socio-economic backgrounds.

 

[bomberclifford]

Opportunistic abductions are uncommon but they do happen and are considered by police. E.g. in the recent Cleo Smith case, police original theory was opportunistic abduction.
There are a number of factors which suggest this is a possible scenario:

Very high incidence of known paedophiles and sex offenders in the immediate area.​

Quiet street with few possible witnesses and no CCTV surveillance.​

Multiple exit routes from the scene (with a 4WD).​

The offender(s) may not have been 'cruising' with the specific intention of abduction, but may have been casing vacant houses for a possible 'break-and-enter', or may have been on their way to a bush track to engage in other activity - e.g. searching for scrap metal (I believe there is a fair bit of scrapping going on in the area), or even harvesting a secret drug crop (also think there is a bit of this in the area).

Maybe William went to the driveway to wait / look for FF, and saw a vehicle which he thought was FF, and was scooped up in a matter of seconds?
(This actually fits the timeline of when the Crabbs thought they heard a vehicle stop in FGM driveway - they thought it was the postie, but it was later established the postie had been much earlier that day).

​

There's also the possibility that this was a targeted abduction, not an opportunistic one.

 

[bomberclifford]

Psychopathic traits: 7 Elements of the Psychopathic Personality

• Superficial Charm. ...
• Puffed-Up Self-Esteem. ...
• Deceitfulness. ...
• Shallow Emotions. ...
• Boredom and a Need for Stimulation. ...
• A History of Shady Conduct. ...
• A Riddle of Contradictions.

Sociopathic traits: Signs of a Sociopath

• Lack of empathy for others.
• Impulsive behavior.
• Attempting to control others with threats or aggression.
• Using intelligence, charm, or charisma to manipulate others.
• Not learning from mistakes or punishment.
• Lying for personal gain.
• Showing a tendency to physical violence and fights.

You be the judge.

Based on that list I could be classed as both a psychopath and a sociopath.

 

[stormbird]

Thanks to NRL Fan's link, I found some 2014 bin information via the Wayback Machine:

- "[Bin] Collection vehicles are fitted with a closed-circuit TV camera which films the bin as it empties. The driver makes a note when contamination occurs and puts a sticker on the bin. The information is recorded against the address back at the office, a letter is sent to the resident." (from Bin collection days, under "Contamination control")

- A new kerbside waste service started on Monday 1 Sep 2014. Residents were asked to leave their old bins on the kerb from Mon 8 Sep to be collected by a contractor sometime between 8 Sep and 19 Sep.

- Waste Collection Calendar 2014
For Kendall residents, the bin collection day back in 2014 was the same as it is now: Tuesdays, on a Week 1 schedule. Friday 12 Sep 2014 would have been in a red (garbage) bin week and the next collection, Tuesday 16 Sep, would have been yellow (recycling).

For me the interesting possibility with the bin-collection CCTV footage is that maybe it was saved. I don't know whether that's possible or whether police have authority to seize it. But hypothetically only: if the footage was saved as the truck collected each bin, and if each bin could be identified by address and resident, and if police could seize the footage and store it for years as evidence, then maybe the recent review of evidence turned up whatever police had originally been searching for on the side of roads: something thrown from a vehicle. The next bin collection day after William went missing was for recycled bins, so anything not fitting into the list of recyclable materials might have been spotted easily. I think it's possible an offender driving along and looking for a place to hide something might come across someone else's bin to stash it in, because people living on properties where the house is a long way from the road sometimes leave their wheelie bins at the road permanently and just toss things in when they drive out.

 

[31550]

Thanks to NRL Fan's link, I found some 2014 bin information via the Wayback Machine:

- "[Bin] Collection vehicles are fitted with a closed-circuit TV camera which films the bin as it empties. The driver makes a note when contamination occurs and puts a sticker on the bin. The information is recorded against the address back at the office, a letter is sent to the resident." (from Bin collection days, under "Contamination control")

- A new kerbside waste service started on Monday 1 Sep 2014. Residents were asked to leave their old bins on the kerb from Mon 8 Sep to be collected by a contractor sometime between 8 Sep and 19 Sep.

- Waste Collection Calendar 2014
For Kendall residents, the bin collection day back in 2014 was the same as it is now: Tuesdays, on a Week 1 schedule. Friday 12 Sep 2014 would have been in a red (garbage) bin week and the next collection, Tuesday 16 Sep, would have been yellow (recycling).

So on the 14 September, there may have been a number of 'old bins' left on kerbsides which were yet to be collected? This would seem to be an ideal or opportune hiding spot for evidence. Did police examine the contractor's schedule, or the site where the bins were taken?

 

[Awakening]

I don't believe even a psychiatrist could say whether FM is a psychopath, sociopath or narcissist based on the publicly available information. But it remains a possibility in my mind.

Most of the time even those closest to the psychopath are surprised to learn they are one.

They are very good at deception and mimicking empathy and emotions.

Not sure what if any diagnosis this guy has but look at Christopher Watts who murdered his pregnant wife and 2 daughters because he was having a brief affair.

It makes no sense to me. Just get a divorce.

By all accounts he was a loving son, husband and father. He was liked by his friends and co workers. Lived a normal suburban life.

It's bizarre to me that supposedly normal people can murder and dispose of their entire family and then carry on like nothings happened.

So to me it's possible FM could cover up an accident for her own self interest. She wouldn't be the first.

 

[CodyRose]

Agree - IMO a planned handover is just too complicated and unrealistic and I feel the same way regarding FM disposing of his body for what ever reason. I dont see how she could have successfully disposed of him such as short time frame - never to be found. The simplest explanation is a random abduction by a local or a passer by - Occam's Razor ?

how common would a planned handover be?

 

[CodyRose]

Opportunistic abductions are uncommon but they do happen and are considered by police. E.g. in the recent Cleo Smith case, police original theory was opportunistic abduction.
There are a number of factors which suggest this is a possible scenario:

Very high incidence of known paedophiles and sex offenders in the immediate area.​

Quiet street with few possible witnesses and no CCTV surveillance.​

Multiple exit routes from the scene (with a 4WD).​

The offender(s) may not have been 'cruising' with the specific intention of abduction, but may have been casing vacant houses for a possible 'break-and-enter', or may have been on their way to a bush track to engage in other activity - e.g. searching for scrap metal (I believe there is a fair bit of scrapping going on in the area), or even harvesting a secret drug crop (also think there is a bit of this in the area).

Maybe William went to the driveway to wait / look for FF, and saw a vehicle which he thought was FF, and was scooped up in a matter of seconds?
(This actually fits the timeline of when the Crabbs thought they heard a vehicle stop in FGM driveway - they thought it was the postie, but it was later established the postie had been much earlier that day).

​

What time did the Crabbs report they heard a vehicle stop?

 

[Angry Red Bull]

how common would a planned handover be?

I would suggest exceedingly uncommon.

 

[CodyRose]

Can't quite get my head around the involvement of another party either. Whoever's responsible for William's disappearance imo, did it alone and that's why the case hasn't been solved. They've told nobody what they did.

yes IMO a secret is something one tells nobody

 

[Angry Red Bull]

A lot of the true crime stuff I follow has killers hiding the body close to their home, workplace or crime scene. Not sure why that is.

Yes I think you're right. I think there is a statistic that says a high percentage bodies are found within 23 klm of abduction. So something like that

 

[Lady O]

Yes I think you're right. I think there is a statistic that says a high percentage bodies are found within 23 klm of abduction. So something like that

It seems that wandering children are usually found less than 1km from where they were last seen.