- Nov 17, 2007
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- #26
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Will be interested to see serpentza's take on this.
He hasn't put up anything, cmilk did this a couple of hours ago:
Really going to town on the CCP. I don't think he'll be going back to that part of the world any time soon.
I thought they were both in the USA now?I thought they were pushing their luck going any real distance north of Hanoi TBH. The Chinese border is remarkably porous for much of its length.
Vietnamese don't like Chinese too much. Not sure the CCP is going to harm or kidnap foreigners in Vietnam, particularly a US citizen.Yes they are, but they also fairly recently did a decent series on Vietnam. Given some of their anti-CCP, pro-Taiwan releases after first going back to the States 18 months ago, I'd have been reluctant to go anywhere near SEA.
And when you consider the shoddy construction methods, along with substandard materials...
Between floods and lockdowns (and subsequent port closures) there will be an economic slowdown. They question is by how much...I think it'll be interesting in the next 6 months to see what happens with the Chinese economy and steel demand.
Australian news sources seem to have bought into this fear mongering around China trying to drop the iron ore price and semi-succeeding because it went down $30 on the back of them cutting steel output. But the part that's not considered is why they would do such a thing if it was profitable to continue pumping out steel.
If the propaganda is true and they're actively putting infrastructure builds on hold then there's going to be a lot of unhappy regional governors whose personal success depends on growth to the economy in their region. Those governors are driving up huge debts to get some of these projects moving so they can demonstrate achievement abc move on before they are held to account over the debt. A lot of them will be itching if there's delays to their projects and despite Xi making it look like he's the absolute monarch my understanding is that these regional governors collectively have a bit of power.
If the propaganda is false, then they're having a recession
Will be interesting to see how an economic shock plays out in terms of power dynamics.