AFLW Disposal Impact (warning: long OP)

[Teen Wolf]

When it comes to AFLW, a stat sorely in need of an overhaul is definitely Disposal Efficiency. It is often cited like a meaningful appraisal of a player's ability to use the ball for the benefit of their own team, but it clearly does no such thing.

Consider these season percentages from 2018:

Alicia Janz 86.2
Lauren Tesoriero 71.1
vs
Jess Wuetschner 59.7
Brooke Lochland 52.1

Without wanting to bash players, those laughable examples alone (not that I couldn't provide many more) undermine the integrity of the Disposal Efficiency stat as a whole. It is a flawed measurement with little relevance to the important moments happening on the ground, certainly not providing the information people ought to expect. It rewards hospital handpasses that aren't direct turnovers even if a fast break was squandered, and it approves of long kicks to a pack of players in the goalsquare even if there were three teammates free 20m out screaming for the pass. If the DE numbers are not always a misrepresentation, it's due to luck more than a competent system.

My solution is to apply stricter criteria based in the reality of how football games are won and lost. So, naturally, I went through all 58 games from the first two seasons and, as accurately as I could, gave one point to a player for every time they completed an Elite Disposal. If you’re even remotely familiar with AFL you know quality ball use when you see it, but for the sake of transparency I will attempt a definition in the spoiler below.

Spoiler: Elite Disposal definition

A disposal is classed as Elite if it fits any of the following:

• a controlled kick that should be marked by a teammate in an improved position^, or;
• a controlled opponent-eliminating* kick or handball that should be received by a teammate in an improved position^ without immediate defensive pressure, or;
• an opponent-eliminating* run-and-carry play concluding with a kick or handball to a 50-50 contest (or better) in an improved position^, or;
• a goal

^"Improved position" meaning further up the ground, except in the case of:

• a backwards or sideways disposal in defence with the intent and precision to allow for an effective switch, or;
• a backwards or sideways disposal in attack allowing for an easier shot at/approach to goal

*"Opponent-eliminating" meaning:

• an opposition player attempting to contest a disposal should be unable to contest the next disposal

Also, see the following spoiler for an explanation of some terms and calculations that will be used in the tables below.

Spoiler

The ratio of elite disposals to total disposals is expressed as E-D%. Par across the first two seasons is about 27-28, the higher the better.

DIS: Disposal Impact Score obtained by multiplying a player's EPG by their E-D%. Midfielders generally record a higher amount of elite disposals, but forwards generally record a better ratio of elite disposals. DIS is useful for comparing all kinds of players in terms of the influence their ball use has on a game.

DIR: Disposal Impact Ranking. Comparing a player's DIS with every other player in the league, a ranking of 1 being the best. Numbers with an asterisk are given in some instances, these indicate a player’s DIR if they were on an AFL list for 2019.

Also, like anything in this field, sample size matters. However, even after a few games I'd say players start settling into their groove. Double however, this isn't to say there weren't some wild fluctuations from season to season and I will make a note of some extreme ones below.

Now that team lists for next year are finalised, it's worth looking at each club and what my findings say about their pre-existing players.

Adelaide DIR Notes
Marinoff 79th in 2017, 162nd in 2018
Perkins 51st in 2017, 117th in 2018

Brisbane DIR Notes
Hunt 12th in 2017, 174th in 2018
McCarthy 23rd in 2017, 137th in 2018
Lutkins 105th in 2017, 16th in 2018
Koenen 106th in 2017, 37th in 2018
Anderson 179th in 2017, 40th in 2018

Carlton DIR Notes
Vescio 10th in 2017, 88th in 2018
Stevens 31st in 2017, 79th in 2018

Collingwood DIR Notes
Caitlyn Edwards (retired): 20*
Grant 28th in 2017, 106th in 2018

Fremantle DIR Notes
Lara Filocamo (delisted): 37*
Amy Lavell (retired): 37*

Geelong DIR Notes
Hickey 13th in 2017, 50th in 2018
McWilliams 35th in 2017, 101st in 2018

GWS DIR Notes
Eva 67th in 2017, 15th in 2018
Barr 88th in 2017, 46th in 2018
Farrugia 193rd in 2017, 65th in 2018

North Melbourne DIR Notes
Grierson 5th in 2017, 119th in 2018
Hope 76th in 2017, 36th in 2018

Western Bulldogs DIR Notes
Lochland 161st in 2017, 26th in 2018
Scott 69th in 2017, 20th in 2018
Berry 57th in 2017, 166th in 2018
McLeod 120th in 2017, 45th in 2018
Wildes 29th in 2017, 165th in 2018

Summaries of team performance for each season.
2017:

2018:

Based on those results, there's a decent argument to make about the connection between high DIS and successful teams. Something I'm even more convinced about is the connection to entertaining football. On top of that, the figures suggest a significant improvement across the league from the first season to the second.

Finally, for now at least, check out my workings below if you're feeling really nerdy.

2017, 1 to 106:

Spoiler: 2017, 1 to 106:

2017, 107 to 203:

Spoiler: 2017, 107 to 203:

2018, 1 to 112:

Spoiler: 2018, 1 to 112

2018, 113 to 210:

Spoiler: 2018, 113 to 210

 

[owen87]

When it comes to AFLW, a stat sorely in need of an overhaul is definitely Disposal Efficiency. It is often cited like a meaningful appraisal of a player's ability to use the ball for the benefit of their own team, but it clearly does no such thing.

This same criticism can apply to AFL as well; you'll often see defenders with very high DE% because they're taking sideways kicks to provide 'safe' targets in a dangerous area of the ground. Similarly outside midfielders will tend to rate higher DE% than inside midfielders.

As a stat it's somewhat useful but misses a lot of context if used in isolation.

Good write-up though, I think generally we (as in supporters and statisticians) need to re-think the DE% stat and the value - if any - it currently has as a measurement tool relative to team success.

 

[BringBackTorps]

When it comes to AFLW, a stat sorely in need of an overhaul is definitely Disposal Efficiency[ Genuine Disposal Efficiency is also related to time & space!] It is often cited like a meaningful appraisal of a player's ability to use the ball for the benefit of their own team, but it clearly does no such thing.
Something I'm even more convinced about is the connection to entertaining football[Yes- but only eradicating the horrific congestion will create more free-flowing AF, & eradicate the ugly & boring record stoppage & tackle nos.]. On top of that, the figures suggest a significant improvement across the league from the first season to the second.

Congratulations on your analysis- much work has gone into it.

If a player wins a "hard ball get" (ie directly competing with an immediate opponent for possession of the ball), these players are highly valued for any team.

However, these contested ball winners, because they are often under immediate pressure from multiple opponents in the heavily congested current game style, are often under much pressure. They sometimes, therefore, immediately handball or kick directly to an opponent; or to a team mate who is not free (ie then placed put under immediate direct pressure).
Does your statistical analysis, therefore, "downgrade" the first player who was skilled/determined/courageous enough to win the fiercely contested hard ball get?

 

[Teen Wolf]

This same criticism can apply to AFL as well; you'll often see defenders with very high DE% because they're taking sideways kicks to provide 'safe' targets in a dangerous area of the ground. Similarly outside midfielders will tend to rate higher DE% than inside midfielders.

As a stat it's somewhat useful but misses a lot of context if used in isolation.

Good write-up though, I think generally we (as in supporters and statisticians) need to re-think the DE% stat and the value - if any - it currently has as a measurement tool relative to team success.

Yeah I wish I could go through all the AFL games from this (and frankly, every past and future) season in the blink of an eye to see what my method would produce. Unfortunately it's just not practical for one person to do, so here's hoping somebody in charge at Champion Data is out there listening!

Congratulations on your analysis- much work has gone into it.

If a player wins a "hard ball get" (ie directly competing with an immediate opponent for possession of the ball), these players are highly valued for any team.

However, these contested ball winners, because they are often under immediate pressure from multiple opponents in the heavily congested current game style, are often under much pressure. They sometimes, therefore, immediately handball or kick directly to an opponent; or to a team mate who is not free (ie then placed put under immediate direct pressure).
Does your statistical analysis, therefore, "downgrade" the first player who was skilled/determined/courageous enough to win the fiercely contested hard ball get?

Depends on what metric you go by. The elite disposal ratio (E-D%) does tend to knock down those players a bit, but the Elite Disposals Per Game (EPG) tends to rate them higher. This is where the Disposal Impact Score/Ranking (DIS/DIR) comes into it, and I think it does a very good job of weighing up the value of mids v forwards, inside vs outside players, etc.

A crucial part in your post is where you point out contested ball-winners "sometimes, therefore, immediately handball or kick directly to an opponent; or to a team mate who is not free..." and then ask if they are consequently downgraded by my analysis. From what I've deduced, the answer is no, they're only punished if they frequently aren't using the ball well in that situation.

Example: Courtney Gum and Britt Tully won a similarly high amount of hard balls this season (percentage-wise), yet in terms of DIR they finished at #17 and #157 respectively. However, the "old" Disposal Efficiency stat suggests there's no huge difference between how the two players use the ball--it wasn't giving enough credit for all the times Gum plunged into heavy traffic and actually did make a great pass to a free player on the outside.

 

[Matthew2708]

How long would it take you to do a 60 minute game? I tried doing the 1st minute and it just took me way too long.

 

[Teen Wolf]

How long would it take you to do a 60 minute game? I tried doing the 1st minute and it just took me way too long.

Once I got the hang of it, I was able to get through a game in about 80 minutes, so roughly 15-20mins extra on a standard AFLW match.

Identifying players without seeing their number or relying on commentators got easier. And something else that eventually streamlined the process was realising that whenever I was taking a long time to decide if a disposal should count as Elite or not, I would invariably rule against it--if it's not obvious, how good of a kick/handball could it really be?

A bit of prep time was always required in each case (but helped in the long run) like retrieving videos and disposal stats, and then setting up the spreadsheet (typical example below):

I would just switch back and forth between that screen and the video whenever there was something to add. I didn't think to mark the time of each Elite Disposal because it really just started off as a casual exercise, but if I do this for next season I will probably make that addition.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Was very keen to test out my system tonight, the first time while in-season. Now I have a headache!

Worth keeping in mind Carlton averaged a Disposal Impact Score of 982 last season as wooden spooners, while premiers Western Bulldogs averaged 2136. However team totals for single games fluctuated from about 350 to 3650.

Champion Data had the Cats at 58% and the Magpies at 60% disposal efficiency for this game.

Champion Data disposal efficiency: Crows 63%, Bulldogs 60%

Hannah Scott loving the new kick-in rule, but I was sure to not give her points for stepping two metres out of the goalsquare and then delivering an accurate but dinky pass into the pocket. Gotta do a bit more to earn it from that situation, I reckon.

Adelaide's DIS was high for a team that only kicked one goal, but fairly typical for 12 scoring shots. I think the Dogs can count themselves very lucky.

Looking at round 1 last year, my numbers strongly suggested Collingwood used the ball quite well despite suffering an ugly low-scoring loss to Carlton. The Pies went on to play enjoyable football for the rest of the season and became the second-best goalkicking team of the comp, while the Blues... did not. Did we see the start of something similar at Norwood Oval tonight? Or will the underwhelming ratings of Brennan, Blackburn, Conti and Toogood (all top-15 pre-season DIR players) prove to be a season-opening aberration?

 

[Teen Wolf]

Stand-out performers from the weekend include three top-10 pre-season rankers, a debutant and a comeback kid (well, Virgo is 31, but her run-and-carry out of the back-half was more youthful and energetic than you'd expect of a veteran returning from a knee reco):

Numbers for Sunday's games:

Something else to consider is the effect of the last-touch factor. Season 2's rules saw a dip in stoppages and overall disposals, which in turn dramatically reduced a lot of the junky handballs around throw-ins. A slight alteration with the rules again means Carlton's 637 in 2019 probably isn't as bad as a 637 in 2018, however the raw number of 33 elite disposals is quite dreadful regardless.

The last two games might seem tricky to reconcile, with the suggestion that the Demons-Dockers was much less skillful than the Lions-Giants. Plausible that what I, and many others, responded strongly to in the Casey Fields match was the speed of the contest (and yes, the conversion in front of goals!). The footy was bouncing around in the midfield like a pinball for long stretches, not very controlled stuff but certainly entertaining. Freo's lesser DIS could be put down to their 3rd quarter, in which they couldn't formulate any avenues of attack, whereas Melbourne's 4th-quarter lapse still featured a few decent build-ups of play.

As for the Round 1 closer, so many of the Brisbane girls are just super clean in traffic. GWS not too shabby either given some of the tough days a few bigger names experienced, and a special mention to co-Rising Star nominee Alyce Parker--I don't know if she has man-hands or tiny fists of rage, but the range of some of her handballs stood out like a sore thumb.

From what I saw this weekend, it will be another season decided by the Lions forward-mid-defensive structures. The 4th quarter was encouragingly 1-on-1 around the ground a lot of the time. Nevertheless there were several boundary throw-ins closer to Brisbane's goal yet their F50 remained deserted, and that's how you end up with a skillful 4-goals-apiece game.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Another MONSTER POST, but if you're still clicking on this thread then you already know what you're in for.

Most Impactful Disposalers from the weekend:

Prespakis became the 17th AFLW member of the 500 club (fyi only Blackburn and Pearce have crossed that mark twice in the competition's short history, and the highest single-game score is Mel Hickey's 769 points in Round 3 of 2017 when the Bulldogs let her roam around alone all night to do as she pleased).

The workings from each game, starting with the ugly:

^that third quarter, yeesh

Then on to the game at Whitten Oval which started ok but ended up pretty bad:

Digging up surprises like this makes the exercise worthwhile. The Doggies dominated the scoreboard in the second quarter but lost the Elite Disposal count 12-19. It's worth noting all three of their goals in that term came within a two-minute burst.

Felt like the match at Princes Park was even better on the re-watch, including the one-goal Q2:

Every now and then I'll try to throw in some video analysis to literally not lose sight of what this is all about. To start with, check out this gifxample of Bri Davey below.

Textbook footy over-possession. Really poor awareness to not exploit the opportunity she had there, gotta be wheeling around on the right boot and sending that down Vescio's throat. When it happened, three thoughts came to mind: 1) Davey, especially as captain, is too comfortable handballing it off to somebody else to instigate the next important attacking foray; 2) Davey is less comfortable receiving the ball with her back to goal because she doesn't have much experience playing forward; and 3) Davey hasn't got full confidence restored in her movement yet. There might be a grain of truth in the first two points, while the third is probably unquestionable. But even with one of their stars struggling and another missing, this was the Blues' best DIS since R5 2017.

The Crows are also experiencing something of a turnaround, and they didn't have to rely on the same old couple of players either. Their ball movement is much more disciplined and deliberate than it has ever been, these clinical zig-zagging passages stop looking like a fluke when they keep on happening:


Now that's what I call football! Several other quality build-ups were squandered by uncharacteristic errors from the likes of Phillips and Cramey, that aside it's hard to believe this is the team that dished up some real slow and stale bomb-up-the-line football last year, although it is immediately obvious there's a different coach at the helm. And therein lies what might be the big challenge ahead for them--how they cope when the opposition actively plan to shut down their effective but blatant new style.

Next game:

Fremantle with a big DIS bump after a very modest Round 1, despite piling on the goals in both games. I think these figures are fairly unenlightening, merely reinforcing a question I had after looking at the stats sheet on Sunday... "Brisbane losing seems like the right result, but how did they lose by that much?"

Finally, circling back to Friday night, good scores in the conditions:

I left this to last because I wanted to take a deep dive into Kearney's game. Here are all 22 of her touches:


And here is how I saw them, with the Elite Disposals in bold:

• 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 16, 19: Turnover and/or hack disposal.
• 5, 13: Kick to grass, picked up by team mate under immediate pressure.
• 6: Line-breaking run kicked to a 50-50 contest.
• 7: Kicked on top of team mate’s head. An Elite Disposal here would see the ball drilled into Riddell’s chest or chipped further out in front for her to lead into (see #22), minimising Barr’s chance of a spoil despite her tight manning-up. Few more examples of these (passes that require a well-above-average skill level in marking) to come which I’m consistently strict on.
• 10: Kick to an outnumbered team mate (by the time the ball arrives), opposition should always be able to spoil (if not mark) in that situation.
• 11: High kick which the opposition should be able to get under and spoil. Ashmore actually out-bodied Bennetts well (pity she didn’t take the mark) but again that is another example of above-average skill on the receiving end rather than the disposal itself.
• 12: Kicked to a loosely-manned team mate in an obviously better position on the ground who had a free run-and-jump and should’ve easily marked it.
• 14, 17, 21: Kicked to an outnumbered team mate and/or on top of team mate’s head--asking too much of North players in those situations
• 15: Great skill there to give an accurate handpass while tackled by two opponents, didn’t buy Bruton heaps of time but enough to get away a clean disposal (more than her awkward left-foot kick would suggest, I reckon).
• 18: Almost a very good handball but didn’t nail the target. Gillespie-Jones had to stick out one hand to reach the ball there which is a tough ask in the wet, she fumbles and is immediately under physical pressure.
• 20: Abbatangelo runs, jumps and fully stretches only to get fingertips on it--missed target. Another thing that stands out here is the decision-making to kick to a contest, North had several free players streaming forward.
• 22: Beautiful. Classifying it in the same broad bracket of effectiveness as some of these average-at-best disposals just doesn’t seem right to me.

It might be argued that a lot of these are examples of Kearney just playing smart, conservative wet weather football. But I think to only have one of your 18 kicks marked by a team mate is still pretty damn low, and not exactly elite. It isn't like what I'm judging for is unachievable either, look at the numbers of similarly styled Alicia Eva in the same game. In fact, Kearney herself has had better DISs in the rain. But to look at what the benchmark really is, go no further than Emily Bates in last year's grand final:

• 0.00: Kick to grass, team mate has to gather under immediate pressure
• 0.14: Eliminated 2-3 opponents with handpass to team mate in improved position who can gather and dispose of it before being tackled
• 0.23: Kick to outnumbered team mate
• 0.34: Eliminated 2-3 opponents with run and handpass to teammate in improved position who should be able to kick goal (still can’t believe Wuetschner botched it)
• 0.42: Handball to ground, team mate under immediate pressure
• 0.49: Kick to grass, team mate under immediate pressure
• 1.08: Kick to an improved position which should be marked by team mate
• 1.19: Eliminates two opponents with handball to team mate in improved position who should be able to receive and dispose before being tackled
• 1.23: Kick to an improved position which should be marked by team mate
• 1.35: Kick to an improved position which should be marked by team mate
• 1.43: Clean handball but not to a clearly improved position (no opponents eliminated)
• 1.48: Kick to an improved position which should be marked by team mate (pity Ashmore dropped it)
• 1.56: Kick to an improved position which should be marked by team mate
• 2.05: Turnover
• 2.13: Turnover

Even if you don't consult my notes, I think it ought to be easy to tell the difference in cleanness and control is pretty stark just by watching the two videos back-to-back. Hopefully, if nothing else, the comparison lends more clarity to this project and shows some consistency/logic in my "gradings". The final point to reiterate is my pre-season Disposal Impact Ranking for Kearney was 12th while Bates was at 8th (and Davey 7th), not a lot of difference over the journey to date and clearly the disparity between one week to another can be huge. So there!

 

[Teen Wolf]

Well, well, well. Obviously a few players read this thread last week and took motivation/pointers, while some got big heads and slacked off after having praise heaped on them!

Quote from North coach Scott Gowans during an interview on SEN this week, talking about the 2017 season from his perspective as a Carlton assistant: "I think we all thought stoppages and contested ball would be the number one thing, and in retrospect we probably shouldn't have focused so much on that as a collective industry. But I think it's all about ball movement now." I take that as a bit of validation, not for my methods but certainly in a broader view.

Carlton's match DIS jumped 1100 points for the second week running, do it again and they'll easily achieve a world record score.

Huge discrepancy in the second quarter of the WA game, in which the Dockers kicked three goals to none despite a breeze favouring the Pies.

Adelaide sneaking into rare company with 80 Elite Disposals in a game. The other occasions when this mark has been crossed are:
90 of 270 (33.3%, DIS 3000): Melbourne R7 2017
89 of 217 (41.0%, DIS 3650): Brisbane R3 2018
82 of 201 (40.8%, DIS 3345): Western Bulldogs R1 2018
82 of 220 (37.3%, DIS 3056): Western Bulldogs R4 2018

Brisbane had quite a few games like this in season 1, in every case their opponents had even worse numbers and the Lions always won. They only had one similar match last year, which was in pouring rain against Freo. I cut up some footage of their experienced players butchering the ball in the back half on Sunday, think I'll hold onto it for one more week though.

A big AFLW talking point right now is the competition and ladder structure, with the conversation centred around how Conference A is heaps stronger than Conference B which is heavily backed up by the W-L column. I wanted to find out what all the 2019 data recorded for this thread thought about that, so here's the current Disposal Impact ladder:

A slightly different take there. I am breaking my 4-week rule by posting that, so let's not forget most teams are tracking upwards while the Lions' DIS has been dropping by the match.

At 3-0 but ranked only 6th here, Fremantle is poised to be the pivotal team in all of this. Whatever happens from here in terms of wins and losses (and how those wins and losses happen) will be really valuable information. If the Dockers keep on winning, for me the thing to re-consider will be the balance between quick ball movement versus accurate/controlled ball movement.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Think I'm still processing Carlton's loss on the weekend, basically just the worst choke in front of goals since September 1998 in my estimation. With that said, Geelong won the Elite Disposal count for three of the quarters, including handily in the 2nd. The Blues had a whopping 76 possessions to the Cats' 38 in the third term, meaning at their most dominant stage in the game they were only going at 26.3 E-D% which is still below average and a shocking relapse for them (but should have been enough to get the 4 points--not those kind of points, Tayla!).

My theory about wet or greasy conditions is that it's an opportunity for the top teams and players to shine, yet I feel the Crows-Dockers result might've been a stronger endorsement for the DIS system if it occurred in a drier climate:

For the second time this season Melbourne lost a game (by 4 points at Casey Fields, mind you) despite a superior DIS. The other times this has happened in 2019 is Adelaide in R1 and obviously Carlton earlier in R4.

We're past the halfway mark of the H&A season now, so it's a reasonable time to start looking at who's been performing the best over a string of weeks. The table below gives you the top ten DISers this year as well as their Champion Data Disposal Efficiency % and ranking in the competition. For both measurements, I've excluded anybody who hasn't played 4 games because of what I believe to be the necessary sample size requirements.

I could go on all day about this, but let's just look at our current #6 DIR player in Erin Phillips. Of course it's more than just her passing or goal-scoring that makes her a match-winner, but would anybody begrudge the idea that she's been one of the most influential AFLW players with footy in hand over the last month? Yep, Champion Data would. Their stats tell you she's in that prestigious top-90 bracket of best ball-users in the league. HA HA HA HA HA. That can only mean one of two things: either Phillips hasn't been playing anywhere near as good as we all think, OR the "Effective Disposal" numbers continue to not measure anything of real substance.

If this doesn't confirm the old way of doing it is deranged, debunked and defunct then I don't know what will. Some might say my solution produces funny results for individual players in singular matches, but I think it clearly wins in the long run.

 

[k31th]

Teen Wolf, it seems like you should be running your own statistics company that competes with CD. Solid analysis all around, realistically. Hard to disagree with your method, in almost all scenarios.

 

[Matthew2708]

Teen Wolf, it seems like you should be running your own statistics company that competes with CD. Solid analysis all around, realistically. Hard to disagree with your method, in almost all scenarios.

I remember another company that may have been shut down by the afl or banned afl clubs from using it??? It was called pro-stats.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/champion-data-v-pro-stats.904638/

I'd love to see a rival company to offers a lot more detailed statistics.

 

[Teen Wolf]

A record set by the Roos-Crows, first time two teams have scored 2700+ in the same game.

Throwback to the previous best:

Lions hit rock bottom on the weekend while the Cats managed a PB.

No win for Collingwood but a season breakthrough ball-usage performance. Carlton with the reverse fortunes of Round 4.

3rd-quarter aside, the Bulldogs put on their best 2018 imitation of this year, showing sustained periods of their controlled short-kicking game. However they are still working out how to increase clean ball from the stoppages, take this short example:


Sloppy handball under pressure begets another sloppy handball under pressure, be it loopy or to ground or just to a team-mate who is in no position to properly receive. Conti had the best touch there but it still wasn't slick enough to escape the mire (the passage actually ended with a high-tackle free kick to the Bulldogs, although it allowed the Dockers enough time to set up in defence and Gogos immediately turned it over). See the 7 snippets below that highlight how pinpoint precision by hand can make all the difference.


Taking them one-by-one:

• If O'Sullivan's handball was any less accurate there, Bowers wouldn't have had enough time to steady and kick that goal.
• Despite the earlier example, it was comfortably Conti's best game of the season. In this example she weaves back and forth through traffic, drawing the extra opponent and then dishing off to the resulting free team-mate like Pac-Man luring in ghosts before pouncing on a power pellet.
• Lambert's quick gather and fire to an open Magpie, who can turn and go without pressure, eliminates five Blues in a split second
• Purcell gets her arms free to dish off to an unmanned Cranston after breaking through three tacklers while avoiding an interception attempt by a fourth Lion
• Maybe doesn't look as impressive because Geelong end up with the extra number and the kick is botched, but that is a tough pass by Darby with perfect execution. What's more, if she went the simpler option and tried giving it to Clarke (#27) it would've given Exon (Bris #15) a chance for a run-down tackle.
• Thompson would have been crunched by Hardiman and/or Duffin if she had to spend even a moment trying to pick up a miscued handball from Ponter
• Sweeping handball, self-explanatory, but I specifically included that one to show where teams can be smarter defensively. First of all, you can't just leave Davey alone out the back like that. Best in the league at standing up in a gang-tackle and still getting off a pass, so once she gets the ball it's already too late to start worrying about stopping her. Secondly, Chiocci gets caught in two minds instead of staying goal side of Hosking there. Coach's instructions should always be to force Davey to kick in that situation, or make her hold on to it a fraction longer and give the chaser a look.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Howdy folks, working backwards from Sunday evening with the two most erratic-rating teams of 2019:

Earlier in the day, Adelaide had their worst quarter for the season (twice) in terms of raw Elite Disposals, then came out and put up biggest single-term numbers on incomplete record (I was slack keeping track of the breakdowns when beginning this project).

Bit of talk about how games under the roof of Marvel Stadium equate to a higher skill level and better spectacle. Eh, sounds good in theory and I found both matches there on the weekend enjoyable, but it was goal-kicking inaccuracy that kinda prolonged the life of both contests after all.

19 scoring shots for Fremantle on the weekend and still a pretty damn low Disposal Impact Score. I dunno maaaan, gonna be hard to show my avatar around here again if the Dockers romp it in tomorrow night. But I guess there'll always be Elite Tackles to explore?

Heading into the final round, check out each team's numbers across the first six games.

Part of me wishes I could just make two changes and that table would look perfect. And by perfect, I mean exactly like the ladder(s). Then I remember it's good to have such discrepancies. What would be the point of this thread if it reflected conventional wisdom verbatim!

 

[Teen Wolf]

Ahh hello there Friday arvo. I know it's getting later and later in the week before I complete my wrap-up, the idea of doing seven matches per round next year is pretty daunting!

Keep an eye on Mel Hickey on Sunday to see if she's able to unleash the dormant Demon form of 2017, I think there were good signs of her regaining confidence against the resurgent Giants:

Adelaide showed us nothing we hadn't seen six times already this season, in fact a little bit below par despite the whopping 10-goal margin. You couldn't say they've been inconsistent in 2019, yet once again it was mostly a ~10min blitz that took the game out of enemy hands.

Melbourne were actually leading the Elite Disposal Count roughly 12-6 midway through the opening quarter and then the Crows just went whack.

Meanwhile Fremantle were only just a bit above their average output. But of course the notable numbers in both those games are really the nosedives from the losing team. More on that later*.

Just focusing first purely on what went wrong for North in a vacuum, it was summed up through Jamie Stanton who must've had at least 5 or 6 kicks very early, none under significant pressure and none of them hitting the target. Couldn't really complain about the decision-making either, just hacked it by foot. Darn shame after coming on quite a bit in the last month skills-wise.

The next game I have to say I thought was an absolute joy to watch, even though it was low-scoring and I kinda wanted Brisbane to make it out of Conference B. But knock me down with a feather, Wayne Siekman the phoenix of AFLW coaches draws a whole lot of excitement and promise from his playing group a few weeks too late once more. This win was a long-time coming and truly earned after what felt like weeks and weeks of improvement post-Melbourne disaster.

Some excellent transitions through the corridor, too many to gif actually, created from quick ball movement and players not biting off more than they can chew. Additionally and crucially, a noticeable increase in hard running from girls in black-and-white to provide options amongst exploitable areas of the ground. They did struggle to maintain that level in the 2nd half and Brisbane had chances to steal the game through Exon, Wuetschner and Sabrina--two of those misses were surprising based on '19 form.

I just wish both the Magpies and Lions received stronger scoreboard validation and it ended up at something like 7.3.45 d 7.2.44. Other than that, it was an entertaining match reminiscent of last year's Round 7 clash between the two then-cellar dwellars, who by the way have turned it around to be playing for a grand final spot 12 months later:

Back to present-ish day, the H&A fixture was rounded out with a snoozy Q3 and then all-action final term that flew by. Kirsty Lamb managing a high score without getting heaps of the ball indicating extreme impactiness (so what classification do I give to Brooke Walker then?), consistent with her season-long DIR which is currently at #6. I will post the overall rankings of every player once the remaining three games are won and lost.

*Something I've been thinking about during this project which never felt more relevant than on the weekend just gone is figuring out how a team's use of the ball is affected by the opposition's defensive pressure. The DIS figure I come up with for a team each game has its uses, but there is an obvious limitation since it shouldn't be assumed that you're going to play the same team with the same structures at the same intensity etc every time.

If a team consistently keeps opponents to sub-1000 scores then that might be all the extra information we need. Worth remembering even if my idea of disposal impact is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth (which it isn't, but just go with me): you don't need to be the greatest ball-using team on earth to get the 4 points on a given day, you just have to be slightly better than the team you're playing against.

The solution I will attempt to put in place for this problem is a new simple measurement I'm calling DISDIF. So even though Fremantle had yet again another modest DIS of about 1500, they kept the Kangaroos to a very low ~800 so the Dockers' DISDIF for that match would be +700. Seems like solid logic, however I'm yet to tally up all the data from from the 90-odd matches I've got handy, work out exactly how it should be done, and see to what degree it reflects a team's success. Something to work on over winter, perhaps.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Numbers from the last three games of 2019:

And from there, let's take a look at the players who scored best across the entire season (minimum of 4 games to qualify, although everybody pictured below played at least 7 each):

And that is all the time we have for... nnnnnotttttt!

Feast your eyes on how each team is shaping up in this department for 2020, with career records for every currently contracted player who has made their AFLW debut. I now know my 2019 pre-season rankings weren't entirely mistake-free (couple names were excluded who shouldn't have been and vice-versa, as well as one or two other data entry errors etc), so no guarantees here but I've checked and triple-checked as strenuously as my brain can handle up to this point. Hopefully it's not just legible to only me, I've tried to be economical with space usage.

Perhaps the first thing of note is how enticing the top-end of previously-hapless Collingwood is looking, with the looming return of Molloy and addition of Davey to some (other) rapidly improving cross-coders.

But of course, one should be careful with projections. All we can be sure of is some players will drop off and others won't. Did anybody foresee the rise of Anne Hatchard in 2019? Well, perhaps we should've, given her DISes of 42 in '17 and 101 in '18. Ebony Marinoff was tracking in the opposite direction though (67 down to 34) and the fact she managed a 115 this year ought to provide hope for even the most pessimistic expansion club supporter.

On the other hand, to complicate matters further, you can seemingly set your watch to some footballers. Continuing with the Crows examples, take Marijana Rajcic's DIS of 150 in 2018 with her 151 in 2019. And the same goes for Erin Phillips' 170ish first and third seasons, while her fourth is unfortunately set to be about battling injury like her second.

If class is permanent, look for the likes of Bates and Wuetschner at Brisbane and Dal Pos at GWS to bounce back in 2020 after unflattering sub-100 campaigns in '19 (I should point out: for them it's unflattering, but not necessarily for a taller player who can dominate via contested marking). It would be a good starting point for those teams looking to get back up the ladder.

I daresay even Fremantle, despite threatening to unravel the connection between Elite Disposals and winning, rely on the cleanness of their #1 and #2 ranked Antonio and Bowers. A spreadsheet isn't required to know that they were the two who beast-moded the Dockers to a four-point win over Melbourne in Round 1, which is almost as good an endorsement as having the highest-ranked team in Adelaide romp their way to the flag.