Do Geelong have the best home ground advantage in the AFL?

GMHBA fixturing is a…


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Feb 12, 2017
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Big sample size there
How often have Brisbane gone out in straight sets at the Gabba in recent years? Even we did a number on them in a prelim up there. What different advantage do Geelong in Geelong get over Brisbane in Brisbane? None, but they still keep losing finals up there because they came up against better teams. West Coast in Perth are better than West Coast elsewhere, but it hasn't helped them at all this year because they are rubbish. Honestly, opposition supporters come up with better excuses for why Geelong lose games than some of our own.
 

blaisee

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Garbage. We go crashing out of finals because we play like s**t, that's all there is to it. We had a home final in 2013 and bundled it because surprise surprise, we played like crap and the other team played better. If Kardinia Park is this mythical venue that gifts us wins like some think it does, why didn't it work then? Patch of grass, goal posts either end, better team wins.
Maybe.

But not all teams get an opportunity to play in a final.

You have to win enough games to make the eight.
 
May 5, 2016
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Seeing as my wording in the official thread means I can no longer post in it, I’ll leave these numbers here.

For those who want to continue to propagate the myth that we continually make finals based on our home ground advantage - as though no other teams in the competition have one, that’s the funniest part - naming no names but cough blaisee cough you might do well to read this.


Since our last flag we have been accused of making the finals for every reason from Stephen Dank, to favouritism at the tribunal (look up ‘most suspended team 2012 onwards’ and see that one debunked), umpire favouritism and the big one: ‘you get less games at home than everyone else every year and quite regularly HOST other teams on their home ground, that’s why you make finals because you play less games than everyone on your home patch of turf and as we all know, when the ball is disposed, it knows where the game is being played and the jersey design of the person kicking it, and reacts accordingly.’


So:

Since our last flag (which we were gifted because some of our past players - shock horror - procreate), we have played 159 games by my count, at venues that aren’t Kardinia Park.

We have amassed a record of 95-64 in that period. Better than any team in the competition when playing at an away or neutral venue.

Of the dominant sides of the decade, Richmond are 58-45 when they have to play somewhere not called the MCG. That percentage goes down to below 50 when they aren’t playing neutral games due to covid.
Hawthorn when not playing at the MCG or York Park, are 48-41.
These sides have won 6 of the 11 flags decided since we last won.
The next best performed side overall in that period has been Sydney based on a flag, multiple finals tilts etc. as they play most of their away games interstate it probably isn’t a fair comparison anyway, but their record on the road wont be close to ours.


So my question is this:

If we only make finals because we play 9 games a year at KP, can you explain why we have a win percentage of 60 when we leave KP, a home and away win percentage of 63 in home and away matches.

Using this percentage, it works out to just above 13 wins per season: enough to qualify us for finals in every season contested since 2011, our last flag, aside from 2012 when every side got 2-3 free wins courtesy of two brand new sides.

So, my question is this:

If we continually make finals solely because of our home ground, and not through any decent play, or coaching, or recruiting:

What the f*** are all the good teams doing who continually have inferior records to us when they have to play away?

Why are we statistically winning enough games away from Kardinia Park, to make finals every year if we played EXCLUSIVELY at away and neutral venues, if we are so bad that we only make finals because of our home ground?

At some point is someone going to actually try and explain this or is the general line trotted out just going to be ‘you only make finals because you play at home [as though other teams don’t have home grounds] and then in finals you realise that not all grounds are shaped exactly like KP and you can’t handle it.’

Is there a reason our players recognise the ground dimensions at other venues during home and away matches but not finals? Do they get to the MCG for a QF and go ‘hang on, this looks different to last time we were here’ and get lost on the wings? Is that what it is?

Or could it be that we have simply not played well enough against other strong opponents who have lifted their game when we haven’t, and lost for that reason?

Curious to see what the next angle will be.
 

PJays

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How often have Brisbane gone out in straight sets at the Gabba in recent years?
Same applied to Port of early 00's losing finals at home. They went 2-6 in finals over a 3 year stretch, with 3 of the losses in Adelaide

Still a small sample size relating to one group.

Doesn't mean they didn't have a home ground advantage
 

blaisee

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How often have Brisbane gone out in straight sets at the Gabba in recent years? Even we did a number on them in a prelim up there. What different advantage do Geelong in Geelong get over Brisbane in Brisbane? None, but they still keep losing finals up there because they came up against better teams. West Coast in Perth are better than West Coast elsewhere, but it hasn't helped them at all this year because they are rubbish. Honestly, opposition supporters come up with better excuses for why Geelong lose games than some of our own.

Big difference between Brisbane and Geelong.


The GABBA and the MCG are basically the same size ( 170.6 x 149 GABBA)( 172.9 x 147.8 MCG )
Geelong's ground is ( 170 x 115m). KP is the most unique sized ground in the AFL, and a massive advantage to Geelong. This advantage is amplified even further by the fact that Geelong train at the ground, the only AFL club that has the privilege of actually training on their home ground.


The above probably gift Geelong 2/3 games a year, no other club has an advantage like that
 
Feb 12, 2017
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Big difference between Brisbane and Geelong.


The GABBA and the MCG are basically the same size ( 170.6 x 149 GABBA)( 172.9 x 147.8 MCG )
Geelong's ground is ( 170 x 115m). KP is the most unique sized ground in the AFL, and a massive advantage to Geelong. This advantage is amplified even further by the fact that Geelong train at the ground, the only AFL club that has the privilege of actually training on their home ground.


The above probably gift Geelong 2/3 games a year, no other club has an advantage like that
So then by your logic when Brisbane play in Melbourne they have no disadvantage, but Geelong faces a massive disadvantage because of the ground dimensions. Yet we had no problem trouncing Hawthorn and Collingwood in the 2011 finals at the MCG. Circular arguments are pretty boring so I'm tapping out for now, but the fascination supporters of Melbourne-based teams have over Geelong playing in Geelong in something I've never experienced in any sport before. I think it's jealously, could be wrong.
 

blaisee

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So then by your logic when Brisbane play in Melbourne they have no disadvantage, but Geelong faces a massive disadvantage because of the ground dimensions. Yet we had no problem trouncing Hawthorn and Collingwood in the 2011 finals at the MCG. Circular arguments are pretty boring so I'm tapping out for now, but the fascination supporters of Melbourne-based teams have over Geelong playing in Geelong in something I've never experienced in any sport before. I think it's jealously, could be wrong.

Yea, must be jealousy
 
Feb 4, 2008
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I think it's more an entire generation now think all grounds should be the same size, whereas not that long ago they were all different. A bit like cricket grounds (in Australia particularly) in the past, there was variety and each had its own character.

I've always thought as long as it's an oval with goalposts the rest doesn't matter. Kardinia Park doesn't need to be widened any more than the SCG needs to be lengthened. Once they added the 50 metre lines you suddenly realised how short that ground is.

It is a good point you make actually, that we don’t want to see every ground being generic. But there is so much difference between the Geelong ground and the next least generic ground as to make that difference along very tricky for opposition teams who play there once every 40 odd matches or whatever.

It is funny you say about the ground not needing to be widened any more than the SCG needs to be lengthened. The SCG was actually lengthened in recent times, by a total of 6 metres I think. So where it was once 149m x 136m it now seems to be listed at 155m x 136m. Judging by the 50m arcs + 50m centre square, the 155m does look about right. So it is 5 metres shorter than the MCG now and 2 metres narrower. Whereas the Geelong ground is 170 x 116 - 9 metres longer and 22 metres narrower. To me the 170m is no issue but the 116 is just too narrow and it often results in visiting teams kicking out on the full etc. It isn’t the fact it is a different shape to most grounds that is the issue, it is how different that one dimension is. The Adelaide Oval is 167 x 123. I think a ground could possibly be very slightly narrower than that and still be within the bounds of acceptability, so 170 x 122 for the Geelong ground I think would have retained sufficient unique quality without being so radically different to play on that it changes the whole nature of the game.

It is subjective but visiting teams just don’t seem to have noticeable problems adapting to other grounds in the way they do at Geelong.
 

PJays

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You're attacking a bit of a straw man here

No one's saying "Geelong only makes the finals because they play at Kardinia Park"

The argument people make is Geelong does better during the Home and Away season than they would if they hosted every home game at MCG or Marvel
 
May 5, 2016
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You're attacking a bit of a straw man here

No one's saying "Geelong only makes the finals because they play at Kardinia Park"

The argument people make is Geelong does better during the Home and Away season than they would if they hosted every home game at MCG or Marvel

Actually I think you’ll find quite a few people (not you) have said that.

So now the argument is that ‘having a home ground makes your record better.’ Can you tell me which sides don’t benefit mathematically from playing at home?

I’ve shown statistically that if we played exclusively AWAY or at neutral venues we would win enough games to make finals, and going home to play LESS games at our home venue, we somehow have a BETTER chance than say a team who has more games at their home ground?

If we were, say, Collingwood, and we won away from the MCG at a rate of 63 percent, would you not think that when you throw the MCG games into the equation, our percentage would then rise a bit further?
 

FreddyTwoShoes

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As a Geelong supporter, I sure hope no oppo teams ever think of mapping out the dimensions of K-park on their own training facilities. Could blow the whole ground advantage we have out of the water.

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May 5, 2016
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How is he a naughty boy?
I not seen what happened but I'm going to assume maybe he just had too many people stacking on some stupid argument and he seen as a naughty one because he outnumbered?


I used some terms to describe the intelligence levels of some of the people promoting the myth that were looked on less favourably than the numbers and logic I was interspersing those observations with
 
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As a Geelong supporter, I sure hope no oppo teams ever think of mapping out the dimensions of K-park on their own training facilities. Could blow the whole ground advantage we have out of the water.

View attachment 1402183

Yes I am sure the two training sessions max opposition clubs would be able to do that per 2 seasons - if their training grounds are even long enough - would stand up really well against a team that does over a hundred training sessions per year at the venue F2S. 😱
 

PJays

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Actually I think you’ll find quite a few people (not you) have said that.

So now the argument is that ‘having a home ground makes your record better.’ Can you tell me which sides don’t benefit mathematically from playing at home?

I’ve shown statistically that if we played exclusively AWAY or at neutral venues we would win enough games to make finals, and going home to play LESS games at our home venue, we somehow have a BETTER chance than say a team who has more games at their home ground?

If we were, say, Collingwood, and we won away from the MCG at a rate of 63 percent, would you not think that when you throw the MCG games into the equation, our percentage would then rise a bit further?
The stats you've posted clearly show Geelong has been a very good team for a very long time, regardless of venue

It's difficult to quantify the KP advantage.

Geelong has been 20-8 with 125% at KP compared to 16-12 109% in return games at MCG/Marvel in double matchups within the same season since 2000. This is about as close as we can go to analysing the KP advantage (despite this method obviously having some flaws too), and 71% games won with 125% vs 57% games won at 109% shows a real advantage

I think Geelong also has a significant advantage in hosting interstate teams at KP- compared to Marvel/MCG tenants hosting interstate teams- but this is again difficult to quantify scientifically

My best guess is Geelong gets a 1 win advantage every year, plus a small amount of percentage by hosting at KP

If I'm correct, if we look at the ladders over the past 10 years, there have been many seasons where a drop of 1 win & % could've dropped Geelong 2 or more spots on the ladder. And when you're in top 8, 2-3 spots makes a big difference in opposition and home finals advantage, or the top 4 double chance

However in the 2007-2011 era Geelong finished top 2 for 5 years in a row, and usually with a sizeable gap in wins and percentage to 3rd place, so I don't think KP would've made any difference to their ladder positions in those days (and there's minimal difference between finishing 1st and 2nd under the AFL system anyway)
 

FreddyTwoShoes

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Yes I am sure the two training sessions max opposition clubs would be able to do that per 2 seasons - if their training grounds are even long enough - would stand up really well against a team that does over a hundred training sessions per year at the venue F2S. 😱

Oh, I didn't realise part of the problem is that K-park is too long. :think:
 
May 5, 2016
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The stats you've posted clearly show Geelong has been a very good team for a very long time, regardless of venue

It's difficult to quantify the KP advantage.

Geelong has been 20-8 with 125% at KP compared to 16-12 109% in return games at MCG/Marvel in double matchups within the same season since 2000. This is about as close as we can go to analysing the KP advantage (despite this method obviously having some flaws too), and 71% games won with 125% vs 57% games won at 109% shows a real advantage

I think Geelong also has a significant advantage in hosting interstate teams at KP- compared to Marvel/MCG tenants hosting interstate teams- but this is again difficult to quantify scientifically

My best guess is Geelong gets a 1 win advantage every year, plus a small amount of percentage by hosting at KP

If I'm correct, if we look at the ladders over the past 10 years, there have been many seasons where a drop of one win & % could've dropped Geelong 2 or more spots on the ladder. In some cases from top 4 to outside the top 4

However in the 2007-2011 era Geelong finished top 2 for 5 years in a row, and usually with a sizeable gap in wins and percentage to 3rd place, so I don't think KP would've made any difference to their ladder positions in those days (and there's minimal between finishing 1st and 2nd under the AFL system anyway)


Yes and I can appreciate that but what I’m saying is if we were based at the SCG or Adelaide Oval or Launceston or wherever, I think our numbers would be the same or very close to it so as such I don’t think our being based at KP gives us a DIFFERENT home ground advantage to the one we’d get if we were based anywhere else that isn’t Melbourne.

Additionally one of the main premises that gets thrown up routinely is that ‘we build up wins because of our odd shaped ground and get to finals and can’t handle playing on different dimensions.’ If that’s the case what happens during all the other matches away from KP? The dimensions have f*** all to do with it. I would suggest we benefit a hell of a lot more from the crowd and noise of affirmation and the simple level of comfort that comes from playing at home than we do from the shape.

Again not saying these are things that YOU have said I know from other analytical threads that you actually have a mind for numbers and figures being used to dissect particular issues, they are just things that a large proportion of sheep regurgitate without having ever actually made any proper assessment
 

FreddyTwoShoes

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Geelong has been 20-8 with 125% at KP compared to 16-12 109% in return games at MCG/Marvel in double matchups within the same season since 2000. This is about as close as we can go to analysing the KP advantage (despite this method obviously having some flaws too), and 71% games won with 125% vs 57% games won at 109% shows a real advantage

Appreciate the effort to dig those stats out, but taking 56 games over a period of 22 years is a pretty small sample size (2.5 games per year).
But again, appreciate the effort.

Edit - 56 games, not 52.
 
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