Do Port need to enter a rebuild phase?

[LeBronco]

Port currently look like a side that's just had their premiership window close after contending for a period where they had several top 4 finishes and preliminary final appearances only to have no grand final appearances or premierships to show for it, similar to the Bulldogs who contended from 2008-2010 and right now it feels like Port are where the Bulldogs were in 2012 which was Brendan McCartney's first year as coach. I can see Josh Carr

Josh Carr

Age

46

Ht

179cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.8

4star

K

10.6

4star

HB

7.2

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.3

5star

CL

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

0.8

3star

being a rebuild coach similar to Brendan McCartney where he does the hard yards by overseeing multiple bottom 4 finishes but Port have shown they are quite patient with coaches so Carr might be lucky enough to enjoy the fruits of his labour down the track similar to Damien Hardwick at Richmond and Mark Thompson at Geelong. There are several FS/NGA prospects on the horizon for Port most notably Cochrane, Pilot, Salopek, Rodan and Tredrea so it does feel like a good time for Port to enter a rebuild phase especially when you consider the fact Butters is likely to leave after this year and Port should get some decent draft capital in return for him as Port have said they'll be able to match any offers for Butters and force a trade to be facilitated. However the president David Koch has said more than once that Port won't rebuild while he is president so it'll be interesting to see what direction Port take and whether or not they decide to rebuild, do you think Port need to enter a rebuild phase?

 

[txbyhull]

Don't see how they can possibly avoid a rebuild if they want all their tied talent and Butters wants to leave? In the instance that they receive F, FF, FFF for Butters as the most likely outcome of this off-season, they'll still need or likely want to split their first rounder in each of the next 2 years to avoid that Butters return being completely eaten up by bids.

List falls off a cliff after the first 8-10 imo, would do them wonders to really push a few oldies out the door and get 3-4 actually good kids every year for the next few years.

 

[FrankDrebin]

First 23 are probably still good enough for that 5-10 position (not sure if that is really anything worth celebrating or aiming for) but any injuries and we are cooked. There is a path back to relevance but that requires plenty of the 'ifs' to go Ports way.

If they can get all their F/S and NGA players
If those players meet their potential
If the new draft rules dont bend Port over
If they get somewhat adequate compensation for Butters
If Carr can show there is improvement coming (think Sam Mitchell in his first few years where HAW were still getting beaten but you could see the improvement)
If they can hold on to Georgiades during a 3-4 year rebuild
If they can sell NAS on the future in 2 years as a RFA.

 

[dunderclod]

Absolutely. Finish bottom 4 this year, get our natural pick 1-4, get 2-3 first rounders for Butters and start the rebuild from there. Especially with Tasmania coming in the year after, this is absolutely the year to bottom out. Koch is a total toolbag. I suspect Carr is wise to the situation.

 

[tiger_tough]

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

We already are in that phase but the club just doesn’t want to officially refer to it as that.

This year we are equal third youngest in terms of average age per game ahead of only WC and ESS (tied Rich) and 2nd last in terms of ave games experience, ahead of only WC.

That says exactly where we are at. Many don’t seem to realise how inexperienced or young half our team is in fact at the moment.

 

[Scotland]

We already are in that phase but the club just doesn’t want to officially refer to it as that.

This.

New coach after a decade plus of Kern. A much younger team than previous years. Have already lost Boak, Dixon, Lycett, Rioli etc. and Houston moved on.

Port's first prelim under Kern was 12 years ago. Every player from that team is gone except Wines who is 32 this year and wasn't picked this week. 5-10 of the 2023/24 finals sides are gone.

I think people overlook that Rozee and Butters have been their best players since they were 23 and then Horne-Francis who is a manchild came in as a 20 year old and was immediately part of a top 4 team. He's only 23 this year. With those 3, Georgiades, Luko, Bergman, Farrell etc. they have a good core of players 23-27 so it's not like they are falling off a cliff with 10 x 30 year olds, they just aren't very good right now. If Butters leaves they can't afford to repeat the Houston debacle, but whatever planning they are doing is for life with the group they have not life after it.

 

[FrankDrebin]

We already are in that phase but the club just doesn’t want to officially refer to it as that.

This year we are equal third youngest in terms of average age per game ahead of only WC and ESS (tied Rich) and 2nd last in terms of ave games experience, ahead of only WC.

That says exactly where we are at. Many don’t seem to realise how inexperienced or young half our team is in fact at the moment.

Yeah I dont think we were in full 'rebuild' mode, at least until the weeeknd's game which hopefully alters some of the thinking. Brining in Lukosious and Richards the previous year for draft picks weren't the moves of a rebuilding team, and neither is bringing in (and playing) Will Brodie.

Our average games experience is low because we've brought in alot of plodders in their mid 20s who haven't played much AFL. But the average age of our list is still middle of the pack.

 

[Daka]

David Koch is not going to like this talk of a rebuild...

 

[ABAB]

First 23 are probably still good enough for that 5-10 position (not sure if that is really anything worth celebrating or aiming for) but any injuries and we are cooked. There is a path back to relevance but that requires plenty of the 'ifs' to go Ports way.

If they can get all their F/S and NGA players
If those players meet their potential
If the new draft rules dont bend Port over
If they get somewhat adequate compensation for Butters
If Carr can show there is improvement coming (think Sam Mitchell in his first few years where HAW were still getting beaten but you could see the improvement)
If they can hold on to Georgiades during a 3-4 year rebuild
If they can sell NAS on the future in 2 years as a RFA.

The first 5 is good for 5-10, the first 23 is nowhere near 5-10 and there lies the problem as there are plenty of hole to plug. Mitchell went full rebuild after taking over Clarkson. The new bid system will mean Port Power will have to use a 1st rounder for bid on Cochrane and Pilot, if both end up top 4-5 picks then you will need to use a second 1st rounder (probably your own pick 8 and another late 1st rounder). NWM is a RFA in 4 years, not 2. I think West Coast will offer Georgiades a massive contract.

 

[MisterMarcus]

They've traded away most of their top picks in the last few seasons for JHF, Ratagolea and Lukosious (with the jury probably out on all three to a greater or lesser extent).

So they'll need to engage in some fancy footwork to amass a big stockpile of high picks if they're going down the rebuild path.

 

[txbyhull]

I think West Coast will offer Georgiades a massive contract.

Will probably ask the question but not really a need for us.

 

[SC_Power]

We have 3 30yo players Wines, Aliir and ByrneJones. The last 2 the only players on the weekend over 150 games. Actually had a less experienced team on the field than West Coast or Richmond or Essendon.

Jordon Sweet was the third oldest Port Adelaide player on the weekend and has only just turned 28.

Already in a rebuild mode.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Yeah I dont think we were in full 'rebuild' mode, at least until the weeeknd's game which hopefully alters some of the thinking. Brining in Lukosious and Richards the previous year for draft picks weren't the moves of a rebuilding team, and neither is bringing in (and playing) Will Brodie.

Our average games experience is low because we've brought in alot of plodders in their mid 20s who haven't played much AFL. But the average age of our list is still middle of the pack.

Our recruitment team have really set us back 2-3 years with some poor list decisions. A couple of which Ken holds a lot of responsibility for continuing to try top up when it was clear we were trending down and should have hit the draft.

Take our recent list decisions in Berry, Luko, Esava and Soldo. Those picks could have netted Reid, Sharp and Trainor. That’s a huge miscalculation for our list position and future build.

Reid slide from a top 5 prospect and we again let him slide, Sharp a top rated local midfielder and Trainor an excellent rebounding defender. All were obvious needs.

 

[FrankDrebin]

The first 5 is good for 5-10, the first 23 is nowhere near 5-10 and there lies the problem as there are plenty of hole to plug. Mitchell went full rebuild after taking over Clarkson. The new bid system will mean Port Power will have to use a 1st rounder for bid on Cochrane and Pilot, if both end up top 4-5 picks then you will need to use a second 1st rounder (probably your own pick 8 and another late 1st rounder). NWM is a RFA in 4 years, not 2. I think West Coast will offer Georgiades a massive contract.

Its semantics but we were equal 11th on wins last season and alot of that 23 playrd in a prelim the year before. A friendly draw and good injury run its not that difficult to finish in that region.

 

[Daka]

To me they have to keep getting recycled players, free agents & trades.

Them losing Butters will give them some currency if they match like ppl say they will.
they can't go the draft imo and do what we have done & the Eagles have done.
it's far too late for that.

 

[ABAB]

Its semantics but we were equal 11th on wins last season and alot of that 23 playrd in a prelim the year before. A friendly draw and good injury run its not that difficult to finish in that region.

That's what other posters are saying. Hinkley overachieved with the list which is why Carr is finding out now. Also, he brought in Wehr and Brodie who are borderline best 23 and playing them so the list is actually worst.

 

[dunderclod]

To me they have to keep getting recycled players, free agents & trades.

Them losing Butters will give them some currency if they match like ppl say they will.
they can't go the draft imo and do what we have done & the Eagles have done.
it's far too late for that.

Why not? Port could potentially have 4 first round draft picks in this years draft. If Port finish bottom 4 they will have a low second rounder and also have Carlton's second so potentially 6 in the first 30 in what is predicted a good draft year.

 

[stallon]

Losing Butters ruins their list timing, Allir/Wines types wont be part of any success.
Rozee, JHF and Georgiades will be waiting until theyre 30-odd for any chance.
Maybe they lose Georgiades and JHF in the process

Unless there are some good free agents coming their way I think theyve sorta just gotta blow up the list and rebuild very quickly

Even with Dougie and their few other good picks itll still take a few years.

 

[Daka]

Why not? Port could potentially have 4 first round draft picks in this years draft. If Port finish bottom 4 they will have a low second rounder and also have Carlton's second so potentially 6 in the first 30 in what is predicted a good draft year.

I am just going on what Koch has said that we don't rebuild here, so in less they change there mind on it.
we will know for sure, if they go to the draft heavily that they are rebuilding.