Prediction Do you believe the AFL will ever be the same again?

[Aussie in exile]

In 2019, $314.7M was given to all clubs. If you take 50M out of that, that's an average of $16.5M per club.

I suspect a Tassie team would be getting greater than average, so no, I highly doubt they'd do better with half the money.

Certainly wouldn't require the amount of money to prop them up as GWS and GCS's, and when we are through this covid-19 nightmare we will need every cent

 

[Glek]

GWS and the Suns are huge financial black holes for the AFL and are unsustainable with the money required to just keep them treading water in the long term.

What treading water like making a grand final? 16 other teams would give their right arms to achieve that.

However, this is not about my team or your team this is about the game moving forward. I do acknowledge as I said in my previous post - we are under the microscope now to make a profit. AFL is running a business, not a charity.

It makes commercial sense for our neighbours the Swans to support us to stay, the NSW's market is big enough for 2 teams. The Victorian market was overcrowded in the good times, its only a matter of time before the power clubs start wanting to digest the minnows. Then it won't be a merger it will be a takeover.

In the short term, 18 teams will come back. After that it is a whole new ballgame.

 

[Glek]

what impact is there between a 16 team TV rights deal and an 18?

The broadcasters pay for national coverage so - Depends on what was the makeup of the 16 teams. 2 fewer teams in Victoria, think you could mount a huge argument minimal change if you handled the mergers sensibly. Lose 2 teams in the growth corridors and under-serviced markets' the financial impact would be massive. You could mount an argument that the Victorian clubs need the interstate teams more than ever - hence why we are seeing solidarity like never before.

 

[Senor M]

The broadcasters pay for national coverage so - Depends on what was the makeup of the 16 teams. 2 fewer teams in Victoria, think you could mount a huge argument minimal change if you handled the mergers sensibly. Lose 2 teams in the growth corridors and under-serviced markets' the financial impact would be massive. You could mount an argument that the Victorian clubs need the interstate teams more than ever - hence why we are seeing solidarity like never before.

It would also depend on whether you are discussing the current FTA broadcast money or the FOX broadcast money.

For interstate sides there is currently the guarantee that every game will be shown on FTA in the respective state (with I think 3 away games a year delayed by 3 hours; but still shown on FTA); where as for some Victorian sides there is 10-15 games that are exclusively on FOX, even into Victoria.

I don't have the data (if anyone does that would be greatly appreciated)-- but I think based off the fact that as a Victorian supporter of a club anywhere (compared to just a supporter of an interstate club outside of their home state) that I would be more likely to subscribe to Foxtel to watch my team play.

It would be really interesting to see Fox Sports/Kayo subscription numbers by AFL team supported (I doubt the data exists)---- but it's quite possible even St. Kilda and North Melbourne bring more subscribers & revenue to Fox Sports than the Suns & GWS.

 

[Power Raid]

The broadcasters pay for national coverage so - Depends on what was the makeup of the 16 teams. 2 fewer teams in Victoria, think you could mount a huge argument minimal change if you handled the mergers sensibly. Lose 2 teams in the growth corridors and under-serviced markets' the financial impact would be massive. You could mount an argument that the Victorian clubs need the interstate teams more than ever - hence why we are seeing solidarity like never before.

agree

the tv deal not only requires 18 teams (but could cope with 16) but also national coverage/ appeal. That's what a sponsor/ advertiser wants.

 

[Glek]

It would also depend on whether you are discussing the current FTA broadcast money or the FOX broadcast money.

For interstate sides there is currently the guarantee that every game will be shown on FTA in the respective state (with I think 3 away games a year delayed by 3 hours; but still shown on FTA); where as for some Victorian sides there is 10-15 games that are exclusively on FOX, even into Victoria.

I don't have the data (if anyone does that would be greatly appreciated)-- but I think based off the fact that as a Victorian supporter of a club anywhere (compared to just a supporter of an interstate club outside of their home state) that I would be more likely to subscribe to Foxtel to watch my team play.

It would be really interesting to see Fox Sports/Kayo subscription numbers by AFL team supported (I doubt the data exists)---- but it's quite possible even St. Kilda and North Melbourne bring more subscribers & revenue to Fox Sports than the Suns & GWS.

Fair enough good points, you have convinced me even further. I sincerely hope all 18 teams survive. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Aussie in exile]

What treading water like making a grand final? 16 other teams would give their right arms to achieve that.

However, this is not about my team or your team this is about the game moving forward. I do acknowledge as I said in my previous post - we are under the microscope now to make a profit. AFL is running a business, not a charity.

It makes commercial sense for our neighbours the Swans to support us to stay, the NSW's market is big enough for 2 teams. The Victorian market was overcrowded in the good times, its only a matter of time before the power clubs start wanting to digest the minnows. Then it won't be a merger it will be a takeover.

In the short term, 18 teams will come back. After that it is a whole new ballgame.

Remind me again of how many of their grand final tickets did the Giants sell?
The key word here is SELL

 

[Roylion]

There is serious talk about mergers making the AFL a 16 team comp. Can we afford as a game to have clubs in it that are such financial holes?

Where is this 'serious talk'?

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

Remind me again of how many of their grand final tickets did the Giants sell?
The key word here is SELL

What's up with Melbourne supporters trying to attack GWS and GC? Is it an effort to shift the focus from their own team being in a financially precarious state?

 

[Blackas87]

agree

the tv deal not only requires 18 teams (but could cope with 16) but also national coverage/ appeal. That's what a sponsor/ advertiser wants.

Do sponsors pay for national coverage or total viewers? The five major cities pulled in 42.15 million viewers last season.

Melbourne 20.08 million viewers
Perth 8.4 million viewers
Adelaide 8.28 million
Sydney has 2.8 million viewers
Brisbane 2.59 million viewers


Melbourne:
Average per game: 261000
Largest audience: Anzac Day 483000

Perth:
Average per game: 95000
Largest Audience: West Coast v Fremantle 235000
West Coast average: 143000
Fremantle average: 116000
Non WA average: 68000

Adelaide:
Average per game: 92000
Largest audience: Adelaide v Port 187000
Crows average: 133000
Power average: 105000
Non SA average: 70000

Sydney:
Average per game: 31000
Largest audience: Sydney v GWS 87000
Swans average: 53000
GWS average: 32000
Non NSW average: 21000

Brisbane:
Average per game: 28000
Largest audience: Richmond v Brisbane 74000
Lions average: 43000
Suns average: 28000
Non Qld average: 23000

I’m not sure NSW and Qld are a big appeal for sponsors. The Swans average 53000 viewers in Sydney, Adelaide average 70000 for non South Australian games, it’s likely more people watch the Swans play from Adelaide than from Sydney.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Where is this 'serious talk'?

It's serious talk

 

[Glek]

What's up with Melbourne supporters trying to attack GWS and GC? Is it an effort to shift the focus from their own team being in a financially precarious state?

Yes, it is an interesting position to take.

It is a "prediction" thread so really they are only 2 options on the merger side of the debate a/ no mergers or b/ mergers will happen. The AFL is in a precarious financial position like we have never seen before, the world is changing on a daily basis. But, no, no, no my football team is under no threat - yeah right.

My prediction - all 18 teams will come back under a banner of solidarity.

However, looking mid-longer term you cant kick the can over the hill forever - if the supporters and sponsors dont come back for a myriad of reasons. Then the real stuff starts. I can feel a shift if you listen to the big Victorian clubs ( unassisted clubs), almost sounds like they now concede we need the interstate sides as much as they need us. So, my prediction is the Interstate teams plus the strong Victorian sides will turn on the weaker Victorian sides ( the assisted clubs).

The AFL won't allow another Lions fiasco - it will be done swiftly and all assisted clubs will be judged on their ability to turn a profit. So yes, we GWS are under pressure to turn a profit in our business. In an 18 team competition, you can no longer rely on winning to make a profit.

 

[Power Raid]

Where is this 'serious talk'?

I’ve heard it is serious talk but what seems more likely from the clubs that matter is the 18 team comp will be preserved

First cuts will be club spends

Second in the firing line is the weaker Melboume clubs with relocation

It’s way too early to call

 

[Glek]

It's serious talk

Nah some people are still in denial, so no serious talk here.

Probably the same people that said this Covid Virus is just like the flu, its a Chinese problem, not our problem, nothing to worry about here, move on, next question. Yeah are they paying the price now?

 

[Roylion]

I’ve heard it is serious talk

From?

but what seems more likely from the clubs that matter is the 18 team comp will be preserved

And the AFL commission.

Second in the firing line is the weaker Melboume clubs with relocation

To where? And how? Is this 'serious talk' gone beyond North Melbourne to Tasmania media speculation?

It’s way too early to call

So hardly 'serious talk' at the moment.

 

[Power Raid]

From?



And the AFL commission.



To where? And how? Is this 'serious talk' gone beyond North Melbourne to Tasmania media speculation?



So hardly 'serious talk' at the moment.

Definitely serious talk but the reality is, even the AFL doesn’t know where this will land.

What is certain is the clubs are now under head office control and decisions made.

Those decisions are likely to reflect what I’ve outlined.

 

[WWSD]

Richmond, Collingwood and even West Coast will all get back what they’ve lost in a few years time.

 

[Roylion]

Definitely serious talk

From who?

What is certain is the clubs are now under head office control and decisions made.

The AFL will become the bankers to the clubs that sign up to the receivership deal. That still does not mean they can relocate or merge them at will.

 

[Glek]

Hawthorn president Jeff Kennett has declared the “essence” of footy will remain after the coronavirus shutdown, but it will otherwise be very different.
Kennett, who is part of the coronavirus cabinet helping the league through this hiatus, suggested the league’s revenue streams will be different.

“Even when the game’s played again, those rivers of gold that we’re losing now are gone,” Kennett told Seven.
“There will be trickles of new (revenue) streams coming on board, but we’re going to have to cut our cloth to suit. There’s no doubt about that.”
He expects there will be changes across the industry, but that Hawthorn won’t need assistance in 2020 due to its financial might.
“I’m not sure for the next two or three years the Australian rules code will be anything like it was before the virus hit,” Kennett said.
“If it (the shutdown) extends into next year we might have to become an assisted club.”

Oh, but 18 teams will survive !!! Yeah right.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Starting to dawn on people the severity of the consequences of this shutdown.

It was all shits and giggles and two weeks watching netflix at first.

Now the gravity of the situation is beginning to become apparent.

The War on Germs has no end in sight. Meanwhile life as you knew it is being destroyed.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Starting to dawn on people the severity of the consequences of this shutdown.

It was all shits and giggles and two weeks watching netflix art first.

Now the gravity of the situation is beginning to become apparent.

The War on Germs has no end in sight. Meanwhile life as you knew it is being destroyed.

Only a fool would believe things will return to normal once this virus disappears.
Nothing stays the same and certainly this applies to all sports.